morning report Friday, February 17, 2012
Wrap market
An up day at risk markets continued the yo-yo pattern that has prevailed since February. Positive catalysts contain stronger US data for housing and regional production, as well as a German daily newspaper (World) report that the ECB in the Greek bond swap take part. A consulting firm note predicting that the Greek rescue package would also be approved on Monday had effects on the market. The global theme of relaxation set its key interest rate by Sweden's Central Bank to 1.50% of 25bp cut off. The S & P500 rose from NY open and is currently up to 1.0%, and negate the previous technically bearish key day reversal. Raw materials are slightly higher, the CRB index by 0.4%, oil + 0.7%, copper 0.1% and gold 0.2%. The mood improved risk pushed the U.S. 10 yr Treasury yield 8bp higher, 2.01%. A bad went 30 yr inflation-linked auction on a real return of 0.77% - 7bp on the market.
The US dollar index is around 0.4% weaker. EUR expanded the Asian session reject, 1.2974 lunch London but then in New York to 1.3123 vice versa. USD/JPY rose below average from 78.40 on 78.96 - a fresh four month high — as safe-haven yen. AUD exceeded, thanks to a positive employment data surprise recovered during the London morning 1.0646 up 1.0774. NZD bounced also from 0.8246 to 0.8342. AUD/NZD instead of its earlier gains on around 1.2920.
Economic wrap
US Philadelphia Fed index factory rose from 7.3 to 10.2 in February, its highest level since October. The detail showed the order and delivery dates more, but jobs declined from 11.6 to 1.1, its lowest reading since August.
US housing starts rose 1.5% in January with a 8.5% bounce in multiple billing a 1.0% pullback in family House begins, by an increase of 4.4% Dec a 12.0% Dec span were revised. New housing allows, however, rose to create 0.7% due to the modest gains in single-family homes and multiple applications. The main feature of the report was Dec revision weight view adds that finally stir in the housing market could be. Also for housing, the MBA reported that 7.6% of mortgages 2011, 2010 were delinquent in Q4 down from the peak of 10.1% in the first quarter; Mortgages in foreclosure round edges slightly down, but after pressed by 4.4% from its high of 4.6% in the year 2010.
First U.S. jobless claims fell 13 k 348 k last week, the lowest could be his recent improvement in four years, further evidence that the job market for bandwidth environment offers.
US producer prices by 0.1% in the Jan, reflecting a 0.4% gain core PPI, primarily offset 0.3% in food prices and a 0.5% fall fall. The core PPI profit result partly higher prescription drug and truck prices, although car prices were low.
Canadian company sales rose 0.6% in December, the fifth increase in six months led by the transport sector.
UK consumer confidence jumped from 38 to 47 to the nationwide in January, the highest reading in five months.
Market Outlook
AUD/USD and NZD/USD Outlook next 24 hours: local is the quiet apart from RBNZ Governor bollard speech before an Australian NZ group in Auckland at noon (TBD). AUD remains old ascending channel, the lower bound 1.0680. NZD help in his two - months today, on the other hand, has under the comparable channel break but returned in (only), are still vulnerable to more declines to leave it if 0.8320 give in to.
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