Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD

10:45 GMT (Global-View.com) June 6 -
Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD (current rate 1.2502)
EURUSD has extended its trade today around 1.25 for the third day in a row, a level that is now the focus and will dictate the tone going forwards. This sets the stage for the ECB meeting where no change in rates is expected, leaving the focus on the Draghi press conference and any hints of an easier policy and/or liquidity measures going forwards. Surprise would be a rate cut and/or fresh liquidity announced at this meeting.
Otherwise, it has so far been an inside but a risk on day that has seen the EURUSD firm with a lag except vs. the weaker USD and JPY. Key levels on top are 1.2542 (Monday?s high) and 1.2624 (last Monday?s high). 1.2470 has flipped between support and resistance, currently the former.
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Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD

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10:25 GMT (Global-View.com) May 7 -
Jay Meisler's Daily Forex Weathermap - EURUSD (current rate 1.3031)

I wrote this in Friday's Weathermap and the market unfolded as expected with a gap lower on the opening but has since done some backing and filling on election results that were not a surprise:

In any case, the upside should be limited ahead of the weekend elections in Greece and France + state election in Germany. Risk is for a Monday gap (down) on the results depending on how EURUSD closes the week and how much is already discounted....

This has the focus on whether the gap to 1.3080 can be filled but would have to get back above 1.3050 to expose this level. In any case, watch 1.30 as it will set the bias not only intra-day but going forwards as well. Otherwise, there has been technical damage but would need a close below 1.2973 to suggest the range since late January has been broken.

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Jay Meisler daily Forex EURUSD-Weathermap

10: 50 GMT  April 17,-
Jay Meisler Daily Forex Weathermap-EURUSD (current speed 1.3146)
Misleading, misrepresentation and whipsaw are three words that we keep hearing to describe the EURUSD as continues to frustrate attempts to break the nearly 3 months 1.30-1.35 range. That is the position, the invisible or other factor unexplained, the EURUSD continued to frustrate.
If you are looking for a trade of pain, it would take 1.3210-15, where there are probably large stops. On the other hand, logic suggests limited risks in advance of Thursday's Spanish auction. In any case, expect 1.3150 set bias in 1.31-1.32.
Range:
Resistance
1.3250
1.3213 = 12 April high (1.3211 = 50 days of mva)
1,3203 = 20 of mva
1.3172 = high-day
1,3120
1.3090 = low-old
1.3050
1.2995 = low Monday's
Support
See the full report, including levels at GVI Forex Forum

@ Gold Torn Between Stimulus Expectations and Risk Trends ~

Currency Strategist 07 April 2012 03:38 GMT  

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral

• Gold Prices Fall as Fed Meeting Minutes Sink QE3 Hopes
• Key Resistance at 1638 as Gold Tests Multi-Year Support

Gold prices continued to sink last week, extending a downward trend that has already produced two consecutive months of losses, as minutes from the Federal Reserve’s March policy meeting reinforced a positive shift in the central bank’s assessment of the economy. This further scattered expectations of a third round of quantitative easing (QE3) and undermined demand for gold as a store-of-value alternative to paper currencies. The durability of downward momentum has been put at risk however after Friday’s US employment report fell deeply short of expectations, offering fodder to those investors still holding out hope for additional stimulus. If such views regain dominance across financial markets, gold is likely to find support once again.

Genuine reasons to question the sustainability of a stronger recovery in the US continue to linger. Indeed, both 2010 and 2011 began with a pickup that fizzled out by mid-year, the former because of a flare-up in the Eurozone debt crisis and the latter courtesy of an oil price spike. Similar scenarios remain on the radar this time around. Spain is starting to wobble again and Italy is still too big to fail with a debt burden that far exceeds the scope of existing ECB and EFSF/ESM firewalls. Meanwhile, tensions between Western powers and Iran have been downgraded from “boil” to “simmer” only recently and the possibility of re-escalation that could reignite oil supply worries and push prices higher is ever present.

On the US economic data front, news flow has increasingly failed to outperform relative to expectations. This can reflect a genuine deceleration or an overzealous catch-up in economists’ forecasts given the clearly firmer conditions that emerged toward the end of last year and into the first quarter, but in either case markets have been increasingly faced with disappointing outcomes. Friday’s employment figures were an excellent example of just how fragile growth remains, with very few redeeming qualities in the details of the report. The unemployment rate dipped to a three-year low of 8.3 percent but this reflected a 164K contraction in the labor force rather than stepped-up hiring, and the crucial retail sector led job losses with a 33.8K drop. This could be sending an ominous signal about the trajectory of private consumption, by far the largest component of GDP growth at close to 70 percent.

Looking ahead, gold appears likely to find support early into next week as markets returning from the Easter holiday have a chance to meaningfully price in the outcome and all of the worries about growth that it implies, which ought to bolster QE3 possibilities. For this move to have staying power however, additional evidence of a downturn will need to emerge to cement the jobs report as the turning point toward a new dynamic rather than a one-off outlier. With that in mind, traders will pay close attention to the Fed’s Beige Book survey of regional economic conditions and April’s preliminary University of Michigan consumer confidence reading (where expectations call for eighth consecutive increase to the highest level since February 2011). Scheduled remarks from a long list of Fed officials including Chairman Bernanke, Vice Chair Yellen and New York Fed President Dudley will also be closely examined for QE3 potential. - IS

Sitting on Quarterback Sex Assault Story, Yale Daily News Considered Seeking a Private Jet for Witt [Yale]

This morning we read how Yale Daily News, "Gutsiest Campus Newspaper of 2011", sat on the story of perfect Yale quarterback Patrick Witt's sex assault scandal for two months. Now, a humorous coda to their silence: We hear that YDN actually considered calling on wealthy alumni to charter a jet for the campus hero, so he wouldn't can't have to choose between the Yale-Harvard game and his Rhodes Scholarship interview.
A member of YDN's Managing Board who is involved in the editorial-writing process tells us that editor-in-chief of la Bruyere "pitched" the private jet Max editorial around the same time they reportedly heard about Witt's sexual assault charge. The private jet editorial didn't make it into print, either. Of la Bruyere declined to how it it [See update].
Witt's sexual assault charge was a remarkably open secret: After the New York Times reported last night that Witt may have dropped out of the Rhodes due to the sex scandal, not loyalty to Yale football, staffers on the Yale Daily News listserv admitted to knowing about the story for months. You'd think someone would have spilled the beans drawn?
What other open secret do Yale, Patrick Witt, and The Yale Daily News have? Email maureen@gawker.com if you know.
Update: Max of la Bruyere in writes:

Dear Maureen,
First off, the claims about the editorial are absurd. However, that narrative sounds like the story of Florida State's Myron Rolle - a story I repeated to many people when I heard about Witt's situation.
Second: I did know by late November that there had been an informal complaint filed against Patrick Witt. The student who filed it it to keep it informal, though she had the option of making a formal complaint. I decided to respect the discretion that she crisis for when she made that choice. As a student paper dealing with coopt allegations and an informal complaint, we chose to honor the woman's wishes and Yale's process for such a complaint.
Third: I never declined to how for your original blog post. I'm sorry it took a me few hours to get to your email.