FX News Update: The GBP/USD technical report classic

18 June 2012 06: 06 GMT

GBP/USD: Daily studies are oversold and a proper risk analysis CIHI again let on short-term bounce back after corrective action tilted slightly low below January 2012. Looking to 1.6000, from which a top, bottom, is sought prior to the resumption of the greatest bass player for additional benefits from 1.5800.

$ GBP/USD technical report classic 06.14

June 14, 2012 05: 52 GMT

GBP/USD: daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI appear inclined upside down to allow a corrective bounce short term necessary after the reverse out just shy of the 2012 bottom of January. Locate the last close back daily over 1.5440 to strengthen the prospects for growth in the short term, provided in the 1.5800 region where a low high costs will be sought for that underpin the acceleration of bear trend to resume. Only a close back under delays 1.5400.

$$GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 06.13

 13 June 2012 06:42 GMT   GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correcting from oversold and from here risks seem tilted to the upside to allow for a necessary short-term corrective bounce after setbacks stalled just shy of the 2012 lows from January. Look for the latest daily close back above 1.5440 to strengthen short-term bullish outlook, with acceleration projected into the 1.5800 area where a fresh lower top will be sought out in favor of underlying bear trend resumption. Only a close back under 1.5400 delays.

##GBP/USD technical report classic 06.12

GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI appear inclined upside down to allow a corrective bounce short term necessary after the setback down just shy of the 2012 bottom of January. Locate the last close back daily over 1.5440 to strengthen the prospects for growth in the short term, provided in the 1.5800 region where a low high costs will be sought for that underpin the acceleration of bear trend to resume. Only a close back under delays 1.5400.

GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 06.07

Do not have a FXCM account?

Or

Do not have a FXCM account?

Or

Follow us

By Joel Kruger, technical strategist June 7, 2012 05: 31 GMT GBP/USD: daily studies are now well saturated and risk CIHI appear tilted upside down to allow a corrective bounce short term necessary after the reverse out just shy of the 2012 bottom of January. Look for a break and then close back above 1.5440 to strengthen the prospects for growth in the short term, with acceleration in the region of 1 5600 - 1 5800, where a low high costs will be sought for the resumption of underlying bear trend.

-Written by Joel Kruger, technical currency strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, E-mail jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @ JoelKruger

To be added to the list of distribution of Joel Kruger, send an email with the subject "Distribution list" line to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the world market currencies.
Learn forex trading with a free account of practice and exchange of graphics of FXCM.

June 7, 2012 05: 31 GMT

/ / SET the properties on the PAGE var sProperties = new Object(); sProperties.server = "2.6". sProperties.channel = ' technique: Classic Daily, GBPUSD'; / / Pass the properties on the page to Omniture if (typeof sProperties! = "undefined") {for (var sProperty in sProperties) {s [sProperty] = sProperties [sProperty];}} var s = s_code .t (); If (s_code) document.write (s_code);

View the original article here

$ GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 06.06

GBP/USD: Daily studies are now well oversold and from here risks seem tilted to the upside to allow for a necessary short-term corrective bounce after setbacks stalled just shy of the 2012 lows from January. Look for a break and close back above 1.5440 to strengthen short-term bullish outlook, with acceleration then projected into the 1.5600-1.5800 area where a fresh lower top will be sought out in favor of underlying bear trend resumption.

{ Correction of GBPUSD probably ongoing towards 15800/50

28 May 2012 17: 48 GMT Daily Bars


The GBPUSD has entered a zone that was congestion in March (15601-15746). Area that was previously congestion will likely Patty again reactions. In other words, this is a good place for the GBPUSD to find a near term low. I wrote last update that "the idea fits with short term structure as well." "A drop to a new low (below 15732) would probably complete 5 waves down from 16300 and give way to a multi week corrective advance." Cable spiked into 15638 last week and has rebounded. 15780 is interim resistance purpose 15850 is ultimately viewed as the stronger level.
LEVELS: 15500 15600 15740 15780 15850

£ $ GBPUSD : Recherche de rebond pour vendre le programme d'installation

Strategy: Brief pending
GBPUSD tests the tracing of Fibonacci 61.8% to 1.5640 after avoid less of a falling trend line that covered the head since April 2011, to support slant up to mid-January. Deeply oversold RSI studies index that a rebound may be coming and we will wait for a corrective bounce to seek opportunities of sale. The lines of initial resistance to the 1.5766, the level of tracing by 50%.

GBP/USD rapport technique classique 05.18

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota
GBP/USD:The market remains under intense pressure since breaking back below 1.6000 and setbacks could now extend towards next key support in he 1.5600 area over the coming sessions. Still, daily studies are now stretched and we would prefer looking to sell into rallies towards 1.5900 where a fresh lower top is sought out.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and trading charts from FXCM.

View the original article here

£/$ GBP/USD technical report classic 05.17

GBP/USD: la dernière clôture quotidienne au-dessous de 1.6050 a maintenant ouvre la voie à une accélération de la baisse au cours des prochains jours retour vers le prochain soutien clé dans de la 1.5800. À ce stade, recherchez les rassemblements intrajournaliers à plafonnée très bien avant de 1.6200, tandis que le dos seul au-dessus de 1.6300 serait nier les perspectives et donner raison pour pause.

--$--GBP/USD rapport technique classique 05.15

15 May 2012 05: 35 GMT    
GBP/USD: Finally starting to see signs of a medium-term top and potential 2012 high after the market has stalled and retreated from the 1.6300 area. Key support now comes in by 1.6050 and a break and closed below this level will confirm bearish bias and accelerate declines towards 1.5800 further down. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6300 would negate and give reason for reconsideration.

£/$ GBPUSD: Trading of the Bank of England interest rate decision

Trading the News: Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

What’s Expected:

Time of release: 05/10/2012 11:00 GMT, 7:00 EDT

Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD

Expected: 325B

Previous: 325B

DailyFX Forecast: 325B

Why Is This Event Important:

Although the Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy stance in May, the bullish sentiment underlining the British Pound may gather pace as the central bank adopts a hawkish tone for monetary policy. As the BoE preserve its wait-and-see approach, we may see the Monetary Policy Committee refrain from releasing a policy statement, but the quarterly inflation on tap for May 16 may trigger fresh highs in the GBPUSD should the central bank raise its fundamental assessment for the U.K. Indeed, we should see the MPC move away from its easing cycle as BoE officials anticipate to see a faster recovery in the second-half of the year, and the board may start to lay out a tentative exit strategy as the stickiness in underlying price growth raises the risk for inflation.

Recent Economic Developments

Release	Expected	Actual
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (MAR)	0.4%	1.5%
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)	3.4%	3.5%
Producer Price Index - Outputs (YoY) (MAR)	3.5%	3.6%

The Downside

Release	Expected	Actual
Halifx House Prices (3MoY) (APR)	0.4%	-0.5%
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (1Q A)	0.1%	-0.2%
Average Weekly Earnings (3MoY) (FEB)	1.2%	1.1%

As the outlook for growth and inflation picks up, we should see the BoE adopt a hawkish tone for monetary policy, and a fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may spark fresh highs in the GBPUSD as market participants start to look for a rate hike. However, the ongoing slack within the real economy paired with the slowdown in wage growth may encourage the BoE to strike a balanced tone for the region, and we may see the central bank carry its current policy stance into the second-half of the year as the recession in the euro-area – Britain’s largest trading partner – dampens the outlook for growth. In turn, a neutral policy statement may halt the bullish run in the GBPUSD, and the pair may ultimately face range-bounce prices as market participants maintain bets for more easing.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

A look at the encompassing structure sees the pound continuing to trade within the confines of a well-defined ascending channel formation dating back to the January low with the downside correction off the 2012 high at 1.63 finding ample support at the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the January and March troughs at 1.6070. While our medium-term bias remains weighted to the topside, it’s important to note that broader risk trends may continue to drag on the pound, limiting advances in the near-term. We continue to favor long entries between the 1.60-handle (channel support) and the 1.6070-mark with a breach above the 78.6% extension at the 1.62-figure dispelling further downside pressure. Such a scenario eyes topside targets at the 1.63-handle and the 100% extension at 1.6360.

The scalp chart shows the GBPUSD holding within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to the April 30th high with the pair testing channel support early in the US session. Soft interim support rests at 1.6130 backed by the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 12th and April 5th troughs at 1.6088 and 1.6065. A break below the 50% extension at 1.6035 risks further losses for the pound with subsequent floors seen at the 1.60-figure and the 38.2% extension at 1.5980. A breach above channel resistance targets the 78.6% extension at 1.6165, the 1.62-figure, 1.6235 and the 100% extension at 1.6265, with a breach above the 2012 high at 1.63 exposing our objective at 1.6360. As the BoE maintains its current policy we may see a muted reaction to the release. However we will be closely eyeing these levels as we head into the quarterly inflation report due out on May 16th.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the BoE rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trades as the BoE is widely expected to preserve its current policy stance, but a hawkish policy statement could set the stage for a long British Pound trade as it raises the scope for a rate hike. Therefore, if the central bank sees a greater risk for inflation and continues to favor a stronger recovery for the second-half of 2012, we will need a green, five-minute candle following the decision to generate a buy entry on two-lots of GBPUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade hits its mark in order to preserve our profits.

On the other hand, we may see board member David Miles continue to push for more quantitative easing amid the ongoing slack within the real economy, and the majority may carry its neutral policy stance into the third-quarter in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery. As a result, if we see a growing rift within the MPC, with the board highlighting the downside risks surrounding the region, we will carry out the same strategy for a short pound-dollar trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.

Impact that the Bank of England Interest Rate Decision has had on GBP during the last meeting

Pips Change

(1 Hour post event )

Pips Change

(End of Day post event)

April 2102 Bank of England Interest Rate Decision

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
APR 2012	04/05/2012 11:00 GMT	325B	325B	+26	+4

As expected, the Bank of England preserved its current policy in April, which produced a fairly muted reaction in the British Pound, but the meeting minutes sparked a sharp rally in the GBPUSD as the MPC voted 8-1 to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00% while holding the asset purchase target at GBP 325B. Indeed, board member Adam Posen scaled back his view for more QE as BoE officials expect to see a stronger recovery later this year, and it seems as though the central bank is looking to conclude its easing cycle this year as the committee no longer sees a risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation.

~$~ GBP/USD technical report Classic 6

GBP/USD: Beginning to see signs of a medium-term high potential high 2012 after the market is down and withdrew from the region of 1.6300. Essential support now is 1.6075 and a break and a closing below that level will confirm bearish bias and accelerate the decline to 1.5800 below. Ultimately, only a break back above 1.6300 would deny and give reason for reconsideration.

""" GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 05.04

 

GBP/USD: Although the market had been very well bid in recent sessions, the rally looks like it might finally be closer to stalling out in favor of a bearish resumption. Look for a daily close back below 1.6150 to officially confirm, but aggressive traders may want to consider fading any strength beyond 1.6300 with daily studies starting to roll from overbought. Ultimately, only a daily close above 1.6400 would delay outlook.

££- GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.23

23 April 2012 06: 27 GMT

GBP/USD: recent breaking back above 1.6000 now opens the door to the costs back to the peak of October 2011 to 1.6165. However, additional gains beyond 1.6165 should be difficult to get, and once more see us risks for a bearish reversal for renewed weakness back to support key by 1.5800. A break and closing below 1.5800 will accelerate and decreases. Ultimately, only a weekly closing above 1.6165 would deny underlying bearish bias.

GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.20

20 April 2012 06:48 GMT
 
GBP/USD: The recent break back above 1.6000 now opens the door for fresh upside towards the October 2011 peak at 1.6150. However, any additional gains beyond 1.6150 should prove hard to come by, and we once again see risks for a bearish reversal in favor of renewed weakness back down towards key support by 1.5800. A break and close below 1.5800 will then accelerate declines. Ultimately, only a weekly close above 1.6150 would negate underlying bearish bias.

£ GBPUSD: Rising Wedge Setup Warns of Reversal

Strategy: Flat
GBPUSD is testing the top of a Rising Wedge chart formation, a barrier reinforced by the 61.8% Fibonacci expansion at 1.6087. The overall setup is broadly indicative of bullish exhaustion ahead of a turn lower but confirmation remains absent and we will remain on the sidelines for now. A break higher exposes the 76.4% Fib at 1.6156. Near-term support lines up at 1.6033, the 50% expansion.

£££ GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.19

GBP/USD: The recent break back above 1.6000 now opens the door for fresh upside towards the October 2011 peak at 1.6150. However, any additional gains beyond 1.6150 should prove hard to come by, and we once again see risks for a bearish reversal in favor of renewed weakness back down towards key support by 1.5800. A break and close below 1.5800 will then accelerate declines. Ultimately, only a weekly close above 1.6150 would negate underlying bearish bias.

£ GBP/USD Classical Technical Report 04.18

18 April 2012 06:20 GMT
 
GBP/USD: Failure to establish any fresh momentum on the recent break above 1.6000, followed by an aggressive bearish reversal now suggests that the market could finally be looking to carve a top in favor of a more significant decline over the coming sessions. Look for a break and close below next support at 1.5800 to reaffirm outlook, while back above 1.6065 would be required to negate.

$ GBPUSD: Trading the Bank of England Minutes

18 April 2012 03:00 GMT  Trading the News: Bank of England Minutes What’s Expected:
Time of release: 04/18/2012 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: --
Previous: --
DailyFX Forecast:--
Why Is This Event Important:

Although the Bank of England Minutes is expected to show board members David Miles and Adam Posen voting for another GBP 25B in quantitative easing, the policy statement could spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound should the central bank continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy. As BoE officials anticipate to see a more robust recovery later this year, the Monetary Policy Committee may continue to see a limited risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation, and the central bank may move away from its easing cycle as the fundamental outlook for the U.K. picks up.

Recent Economic Developments 

The Upside

Release	Expected	Actual
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)	3.4%	3.5%
Producer Price Index – Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)	3.5%	3.6%
Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)	53.4	55.3

The Downside

Release	Expected	Actual
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)	-0.2%	-0.3%
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)	-0.5%	-0.8%
Jobless Claims Change (FEB)	5.0K	7.2K

The Upside

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Producer Price Index – Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

The Downside

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)

Sticky price pressures in the U.K. certainly limits the BoE’s scope to expand the Asset Purchase Facility, and a less dovish policy statement could ultimately bring about fresh yearly highs in the GBPUSD as the bullish formation continues to take shape. However, the BoE may keep the door open to expand monetary policy further amid the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with the ongoing weakness in the labor market, and the central bank may sound a bit more dovish as the weakening outlook for Europe – U.K.’s largest trading partner – dampens the scope for a stronger recovery. In turn, we may see the GBPUSD threaten support around 1.5800, and the pair may fail to maintain the upward trending channel from earlier this year as market participants anticipate to see the BoE carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

 A look at the encompassing structure sees the sterling trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the 2012-lows made in mid-January with the exchange rate holding above former trendline resistance dating back to August 19th. Daily resistance stands at the 50% Fibonacci extension taken from the January 13th and March 12th troughs at 1.5980 with critical resistance seen at the April 2nd high (1.6062) just shy of the 61.8% extension at 1.6070. We remains cautiously bullish here with a only a breach above the monthly high at 1.6062 offering conviction on our directional bias. Daily support now rests with the 38.2% extension at 1.5890 backed by the 200-day moving average at 1.5845. A break below the 23.6% extension negates our bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support target at the 100-day moving average at 1.5709 and the March lows at 1.5602. Note that daily RSI remains within the confines of a wedge formation with the pending break-out likely to offer further clarity as the pair remains in consolidation. 

 

 Our 30min scalp chart shows the pound holding above interim support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement taken from the April 2nd decline at 1.5930. Subsequent intra-day support levels are seen at the 38.2% retracement at the 1.59-figure, 1.5865 and the weekly low at 1.5820. A break below the 1.58-handle risks substantial losses for the pounds with a close below 1.5780 shifting our focus to bearish targets. Interim topside resistance stands at the 61.8% retracement at 1.5960 with a breach above 1.5980 targeting the 78.6% extension at the 1.60-figure and 1.6040. Should the print prompt a bullish response, look to target topside levels with a break above the monthly high at 1.6060 offering further conviction on sterling longs.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the given event risk is certainly not as clear cut as some of our previous trades, but a less dovish statement could pave the way for a long British Pound trade as market participants curb speculation for more QE. Therefore, if the central bank takes note of the stickiness in price growth and raises its fundamental outlook for the region, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the statement to generate a buy entry on two-lots of GBPUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in order to preserve our profits.

On the other hand, the ongoing slack within the real economy paired with the threat of a prolonged recession in the euro-area may lead the BoE to retain a cautious outlook for the region, and we may see the central bank keep the door open to expand policy further in an effort to promote a stronger recovery. As a result, if the MPC sounds more dovish this time around, we will implement the same setup for a short pound-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction.

Impact that the Bank of England Minutes has had on GBP during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
MAR 2012	03/21/2012 9:30 GMT	--	--	-20	-24

March 2012 Bank of England Minutes

Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
March 2012 Bank of England Minutes

 The Bank of England meeting minutes dragged on the British Pound as David Miles and Adam Posen pushed for another GBP 25B in quantitative easing, but it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee is softening its dovish tone for monetary policy as central bank officials now see a limited risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation. The sterling tumbled lower following the policy statement, with the GBPUSD quickly moving back below 1.5850, but we saw the pound-dollar consolidate during the North American trade to end the day at 1.5870.