The British Pound Outlook depends on the BoE in Paris for more relaxing

30 June 2012 analyst 02: 49 GMT
fundamental forecasts for the pound sterling: Rally
The pound sterling has reduced the decline of this month that the EU Summit survived the reactions of the market, but the sterling may struggle to hold his ground next week as the market players see the Bank of England is taking additional steps to protect the UK economy. While the BoE is widely expected to maintain the reference to 0.50% interest rate, there is growing speculation that the Central Bank embark in more quantitative expansion as the sovereign debt crisis continues to hinder the fundamental Outlook for the region.
A Bloomberg News poll shows 39 of 41 surveyed economists see the monetary policy Committee increase the ease of purchase far beyond the target of 325 GBP, and the Central Bank can continue to do its cycle of relaxation in the second half of the year Governor Mervyn King is cautious over more to the region. Indeed, Mr King sounded pessimistic on the economy of his testimony before the Council of the Treasury Committee, earlier this week, and it seems that the head of the Central Bank attempts to of swaying the MPC to expand the balance sheet more far to combat the risk of loss to the U.K. economy. The United Kingdom is in a technical recession, fears of a prolonged economic slowdown may push additional votes for ease, but we see an another 5-4 split in July as the underlying growth of price stickiness raises the threat of inflation. Although the BoE curbed its forecasts for growth and inflation, we have seen the superior price containing consumer heart tick in may, with annualized sales growth of 2.2%, and the majority can continue to approve an approach to wait and see the fundamental Outlook for Britain remain confused with great uncertainty.
Although the GBPUSD had an impressive rally in July, the couple seems to have carved a high low in June, and the lack of dynamism of stand on the tracing of Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009 low to high around 1.5690 - 1.5700 can produce a correction in the short term before the decision of BoE rate as market participants weigh prospects for monetary policy. However, a program for the purchase of the assets of the BoE increase could force a sharp decline in the exchange rate, and we see the GBPUSD allow execution of the other 50.0% Fib (1.5270) should the Central Bank strike a tone very moderate for the area. -DS
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30 June 2012 02: 49 GMT

@@ Gold, crude oil to the ISM of judge and comments of the EDF of Paris there

Discussion points
Oil, copper for the stock data of the ISM, Fed-speak form risk trends of gold and silver reflect the Inflation-hedge demand that there expectations evolve products look towards U.S. economic calendar, with emphasis on the ISM manufacturing gauge us. Appeal of forecasts of a mild slowdown in April that keeps the movement of modest increase cut intact last year July (a print below 52.6 would be necessary to align the trend, and expected a result 53.0).
With the probability of Fed there still much to focus on financial markets, a fresh reading promotes the counter-current appetite for risk on hopes of rising stimulus. Crude oil and copper prices remain closely correlated with the 500 S & P and therefore should follow actions in this scenario, while the gold and silver may find support on the concerns of increasing dilution of the Dollar.
Investors are likely to assess a case held the comments of the representatives of the Fed in the same meaning. Regular observations of regional branch Presidents Kocherlakota, Williams, Evans, Lockhart and Plosser are due to the crossroads of the son. The preliminary series of weekly oil inventory figures APIs handles risk event of the day.
WTI crude oil (near NY): $104.87 / / 0.06 / / 0,06%
In a hanging man candlestick price lower resistance to 104.90, a former level of support, index that withdrawal may be coming. A low Tower here seen 102.20 initial support. Moreover, a discussion already target trend line resistance now at 105.91.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1664.75 / / + 2.00 / / + 0.12%
Prices have the top of a channel lower the value of early March, with the bulls now aimed to challenge the 1680.00 resistance and 1696.88, marked by summits of swing key set on 12 April and March 27. The top of the channel, now at 1656.74, has been redesigned as a short-term support.
Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $31.02 / /-0.24 / /-0.78%
Price test 31.36 resistance, with a break above channel down to expose the value of early March (now at 31,96). Channel short term substantive support is now 29.64.

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COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.830 / / + 0.004 / / + 0.10%
Prices are again more former support for a set of line increasing trend in mid-February, with a break already expose the next to the barrier just below the figure of 4,000 in the region of 3 933 - 3 988. For the moment, initial support to the 3.713 lines.

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€ Euro at risk if Spanish GDP, slower Inflation Drive ECB rate cut Paris

Discussion points
Euro at risk if Spanish, slower GDP Inflation Drive ECB rate cut Paris Australian Dollar further as traders Set views on the report of domestic product gross Spain of RBA meeting headlines the economic calendar European hours. Expectations call for output decrease of 0.4% in the first quarter in the three months through December, marking the second consecutive print in negative territory and put the country in a technical recession. Merchants are turning to the result in the context of the debt crisis in the eurozone in the widespread fears that the Spain is bound to follow the Greece on the road to insolvency. A low reading is likely to keep investors fearing that a recession will cut the Government tax take and limit the scope of additional austerity, derail deficit reduction efforts.
Also, a preliminary estimate of eurozone Consumer Price Index in April reading should show that inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.5%, the lowest in eight months. With confirmation of the recession in Spain, fourth largest economy of the block of the currency, the result can begin to plant the seeds of the ECB rates on the horizon. Needless to say that these results could threaten the Euro. On the front of the issue, the France is the sale of EUR 8 billion in-91, 154 and 364-day bills. As usual, market monitor average yield and readings of the bid to cover the signs of stress, same funding short tenor of debt on offer may somewhat limit the potential of fireworks.
The Australian Dollar lower overnight as traders seemed to come from the decision of regional interest for Africa of tomorrow, where policy makers are widely expected to reduce the cost of borrowing by 25 points of reference. Set of economic data of the day reinforced pressure sale. TD Securities inflation indicator developed growth rates annualized price to 1.9 percent in April, marking the second month below 2-3% range of the RBA. Separately, the growth of credit to the private sector on year slows to 3.4%, the lowest in six months. A minimum of three months on the economic index of China which has even undermined the Aussie in the fears that the slowdown of the partner of the Australia top of page export conditions will convert faltering growth and finally rate RBA deep cuts in the coming months.
Asia session: What happened
Balance commerciale 12mth CDA (NZ$) (MAR)
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR)
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR)
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)
NBNZ (APR) business confidence
HIA new sales at home (MoM) (MAR)
Private sector credit (YoY) (MAR)
Private sector credit (MoM) (MAR)
Session of the euro: what to expect
Spanish GDP (constant) (YoY) (1 q, P)
Spanish GDP (constant) (QoQ) (1 q, P)
Eurozone M3 s.a. (AVG. 3mth) (MAR)
Estimate of the ICC to the eurozone (YoY) (APR)
IPC Italy (tobacco including NIC) (MoM) (APR, P)
IPC Italy (tobacco including NIC) (YoY) (APR, P)
Italian ICC - EU harmonized (MoM) (APR, P)
Italian ICC - EU harmonized (YoY) (APR, P)
France sell billions € in vouchers 91-364 day
Critical levels