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| Email Friday, May 18, 2012 5:47:18 AM TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €809M borrowed in overnight loan facility €839M prior; €762.4B parked in deposit facility v €785.1B prior
- (JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 14.1% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 26.7% prior
- (IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.4% prior
- (DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.5%e v 6.9% prior
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 14th (RUB): 6.93T v 6.88T prior
- (ES) Spain Central Bank (BOS): Mar Bad Loan Ratio at 8.37% v 8.16% prior; - Lending -3.1% y/ym, Deposits -4.2% y/y
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -14.3% v -13.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Mar Industrial Sales M/M: 0.0% v 2.3% prior; Y/Y: -3.1% v -1.5% prior
- (PL) Central/Eastern European May ZEW Indicator: 14.6 v 5.4 prior
- (PT) Portugal Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.7% priorFixed Income:
>- (IN) India sold total INR150B vs. INR150B target in 2020, 2024, 2030 and 2041 Bonds
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR800M in I/L 2017, 2022 and 2028 Bonds*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's cuts 16 Spanish banks and Santander UK (as expected)
- Moody's cut 4 Spanish Regions
- Fitch would place all Euro-zone sovereign ratings on Rating Watch Negative (RWN) following the Greek elections should the risk of a Greek exit from the EU seem probable in the near term.
- G8 Summit at Camp David; market seeks guidance
- ECB and EU said to be working on emergency scenarios for Greek euro exit
- Recent Greek Poll shows pro-bailout parties regaining a majority in Parliament
- Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling***Equities***
>FTSE 100 -1.2% at 5273, DAX -0.50% at 6276, CAC-40 -0.70% at 2989, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 6513, FTSE MIB -0.50% at 13,026, SMI -0.90% at 5820- European equity indices opened lower, but have since moved off of the worst levels for the session. Spanish banks have rebounded from the prior session's losses, as shares of Bankia [BKIA.ES] have traded higher by over 20%, amid speculation that Spain could seek to reinstate its short-selling ban related to financial shares. The government ended the prior short-selling ban in mid Feb. The gains in the Spanish banks have come despite the rise in their debt insurance costs to fresh record highs, as Moody's downgraded more than 15 Spanish banks. Amid the concerns about the Spanish banking sector, data from the Bank of Spain showed that the March bad loan ratio rose to highs not seen since at least the mid 1990s. In terms of upcoming event risks for equity markets, shares of Facebook are due to begin trading publicly later today (approximate opening time is 11:00 AM ET). Also, a G8 summit is due to be held over the weekend.
- Shares of the London Stock Exchange [LSE.UK] have risen by over 3%, following the release of its FY earnings report. Small cap silicon wafer producer PV Crystalox [PVCS.UK] has gained over 100%. The company announced a settlement agreement related to the termination of a long-term wafer supply contract, which will result in a €90M payment for the company. Pub manager, Mitchells & Butlers [MAB.UK] has declined by approx. 1%, after issuing its first half results.Speakers:
>- EU Trade Commissioner de Gucht commented ECB and EU Commission were working on emergency scenarios for Greek euro exit
- UK Company De La Rue [DLAR.UK] which produces banknotes for more than 150 countries was said to be preparing for potential production of drachma currency
- German Fin Min Schaeuble stated that he believed markets might calm down over Euro Zone crisis within 12-24 months . He expected France to respect European agreements and recent elections did not put into question the agreements already signed. Germany would be open to propositions on economic growth. He reiterated that Germany wanted Greece to stay within the EMU; but Greece must do what is necessary for its economy. Lastly he also reiterated that Germany was in favor of a European President
- France PM Ayrault stated that he was confident that economic growth would become a major priority in Europe
- BOE Posen stated that he might have been premature to say BOE had done enough on QE and that he never discussed keeping the powder dry on policy. There was less impact from latest round of QE than expected. Core inflation was stickier than predicted but he saw greater downside inflation risk compared to other MPC members. He saw CPI close to central forecast in recent quarterly inflation report. Lastly he was not confident UK has done enough to avoid a Japanese type economic trap
- Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling
- India Central Bank Dep Gov Gokarn: Current approach of FX intervention and administrative steps to continue
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci stated that he expected May CPI to significantly decline
- South Africa Fin Min Gordhan stated that its domestic growth was weak and uneven
- China Commerce Ministry (MOFCOM) stated that it was strongly dissatisfied with US solar ruling saying it is both unfair and protectionist (Note: US Commerce Dept said to have imposed 31.22% duties on Imports of China solar panel product)Currencies:
- Safe-haven plays were again the dominate theme heading into Europe after Far East equity markets slumped between 1-3%. The German 2-year, 5-year, 10-year and 30-year bonds are all at record lows as was the UK 10-year Gilts. The USD Index again hit fresh 4-month highs. The sentiment improved marginally as the session wore on. Recent Greek Poll shows pro-bailout parties regaining a majority in Parliament and Spain's banking sector was said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling.
- The EUR/USD continued to make fresh 4-month lows but held above its Jan low of 1.2622. The pair staged a minor rebound ahead of the NY morning to retest the 1.27 level.
The USD/JPY pair was softer in the session but delers notedg of fibonacci retracement support at 79.12. The level corresponds to Feb low of 76.00 and the March high of 84.17
- Markets will now look towards the weekend G8 summit for guidancePolitical/ In the Papers:
- Recent Greek polling data (conducted over three days to 17th May) suggest the pro-bailout parties regaining majority coalition. The New Democracy (ND) party was ahead of Syriza for the first time since the May 6th elections receiving just over 23%, Syriza at 21% and Pasok slightly above 13%. In terms of parliamentary seats, this would correspond to ND receiving 123 seats (Syriza at 66 seats, Pasok at 41). A coalition between ND and Pasok would now have a parliamentary majority compared to the election results which left them short by two seats.
- Some major banks have told clients that there could be a strong rally in risky assets if Greece is forced out of the euro zone according to the Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard. Analysts believe that if Greece left the Euro, global authorities would support markets by providing large amounts of liquidity. Bank of America believes that there could be a "powerful short squeeze" in risk assets. The firm also believes that in such a situation, the Euro would rise to $1.40 against the USD after falling to $1.20, believing that initial panic selling could drive the Euro down to $1.20, before rebounding.
- The British Treasury is seeking to invest £20B on infrastructure projects. The plan is seen as an attempt by the government to stimulate the economy. It is believed that the Treasury is examining a plan to use state guarantees to ease credit for housing and infrastructure projects. The proposal is similar to the "project bonds" proposed by France's President Hollande.
- De La Rue was reported to have been preparing for a potential production of the Greek drachma currency. Note that De La Rue produces banknotes for more than 150 countries.***Looking Ahead***
Weekend
- (US) G8 Summit in Camp David
- (ES) Spain Mar Trade Balance: No est v -€3.8B prior
- 7:30 (IN) India Forex Reserves w/e May11th: No est v $293.2B prior
- 8:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel and Fin Min Schaeuble speeches at Catholic Convention: Mannheim
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Apr Employment M/M: No est v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Apr Avg Gross Wages M/M: No est 5.7% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Factory Orders revisions; Durable Goods Benchmark revisions
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Q1 Current Account: No est v -$1.3B prior
- 8:30 (CL) Chile Q1 GDP Q/Q: No est v 2.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior; CPI Index: no est v 121.7 prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Apr CPI Core M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 1.9% prior
- 10:00 (US) API monthly reports
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.50-5.25B in Notes
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Mar Economic Activity Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 5.2% prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Mar Industrial Production Y/Y: No est v 4.50%
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