EUR and GBP - a Long term perspective

This is my first blog on the new feature from eToro blog. Just for me, I have been trading on eToro for 4 years now. I have two accounts on eToro, santoshtiwari, which is managed by my wife, Poornima and uktrader, which is managed by me.

I plan to cover in this blog, our analysis, strategies and factors that take into account before making business decisions.

Pairs of major currencies - EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/CHF, EUR/CHF

Analysis: we closely monitor updates of news from the euro zone on the Greece. This news has the potential to cause a few good spikes or drops in the next few days. However, it must be correlated with the financial results U.S. and gives the Treasury Board. We must keep in mind that, contrary to the ECB, the Fed is quite open to varied and decisive action to control the market.

We try to generally avoid prediction markets, but here are our vision in the long term (2-3 months):

We expect to pounds sterling and euros to increase in the coming months until at least may 2012. Please note that this is a longer-term view and does step of spikes or drops happening because of fundamental news. These views are not appropriate for an exchange of day which is much more volatile and needs a closer watch of the fundamentals and techniques of the shorter.

Santoshtiwari P & L

The reasoning from our view is:

Risks in the euro area are over-inflated and even in the case of a single country, leave the eurozone, we do not see the disaster that it is made out to be. Euro makes cycles by neighbourhoods, and after touching through the bottom in January, it is in a movement to increase. We expect to observe his behaviour in the first quarter ending and first period of the second quarter which is April-May.

GBP will take advantage of the environmental risks and this year of the Olympic Games can bring some good news for the UK.  This can give a good boost to the United Kingdom.

EUR/CHF is not a pair of tricky, because any other fear but the risks of intervention and its impact on traders.  We believe that the fixing of the rate of 1.2 will hold for the EUR/CHF, but we will keep close monitoring in other markets such as stock, A & M, where the Swiss industry may be necessary for the beneficial touch of a timely intervention.

Another great news useful to keep an eye on the Iran and how the issue is changing after a few months… it can be a game changer.