EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
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USD-CHF @ 0.9149/52...Can fall further.
R: 0.9151 / 0.9196 / 0.9300
S: 0.9075-50 / 0.9000 / 0.8950
Dollar-Swiss fell sharply breaking below its important Support at 0.9300 and has closed below the 100-DMA (0.9154) last week. There is Support near 0.9075-50 region which includes the 50% Fibonacci retracement level of the rise from 0.8567 (Oct-11) to 0.9584 (Jan-12). But the downside is open for a further fall to 0.9000-8900 or even lower. However, the market has started speculating for the SNB to intervene at any time. Having said this there are chances for the downside to be limited. We will have to wait and see. On the upside 0.9300-50 will be an important Resistance region to be watched and a strong rise past this Resistance will have to be seen to ease the downside pressure. As of now we do not have any immediate trade ideas on the pair. We will watch how the pair moves for a few sessions and then take trade calls accordingly.
GBP-USD @ 1.5709/12...Can it rise to 1.6000?
R: 1.5733 / 1.5800-20 / 1.5900
S: 1.5600 / 1.5520-00
Cable has seen a strong close for the second consecutive week. On the weekly chart the upside now looks open for a test of 1.6000-50 with strong Supports at 1.5600 and then in 1.5520-00 region. However, there are significant Resistances coming up now at 1.5738 (100-Week-MA), 1.5800-20 region on the monthly chart that includes the 21-Month-MA (1.5820). Having said this there could be chances of seeing a pull back from this 100-Week-MA Resistance itself or from the 1.5800-20 Resistance region. We can take short positions if a pull back is seen from this 1.5800-20 Resistance region, but need to be cautious. On the downside 1.5520-00 is a strong Support region and a strong break below this Support region will have to be seen now for the pair to get downside pressure. As of now we do not have any specific trade ideas and we will watch the market and take trades accordingly.
We got stopped out of the Short position entered at 1.5680 losing 55 pips.
AUD-USD @ 1.0583/86...Big picture is very Bullish
R: 1.0735-50
S: 1.0600 / 1.0500 / 1.0425
Aussie continued to trade above 1.0400 and has seen a strong rise last week. The outlook is bullish and 1.0735-50 will now be an important Resistance region to be watched for. It has dipped below 1.0600 today and we see chances of a pull back to 1.0500-450. On the other hand a strong break above 1.0750 will be very bullish and it can take it up to much higher levels in the coming weeks. We have some important observations on the chart. Two wedges seen on the chart. We take the weekly candle chart to illustrate this observation.
Wedge 1: Wedge formed by joining the highs of 1.1065 (Aug-11) and 1.0753 (Oct-11) and the lows of 0.9387 (Oct-11) and 0.9663 (Nov-11). A bullish breakout of this wedge 1 has already happend and a bounce back from the last week's low 1.0427 has given a confirmation signal for this bullish breakout. Having said this the upside breakout of this pattern wil be 1.1900.
Wedge 2: Wedge formed by joining the highs of 1.0764 (Aug-11) and 1.0753 (Oct-11) and the lows of 0.9387 (Oct-11) and 0.9663 (Nov-11). This wedge is yet to see a break out. The wedge Resistance is coming in 1.0735-50 region. Having said this a strong break above 1.0750 will be a bullish breakout of this Wedge 2 and the target of this wedge would be 1.2100.
Overall 1.0735-50 will now be a key Resistance region to be watched and in the bigger picture we remain bullish on the pair. Having said this we will be looking to enter longs if a pull back happens from the 1.0735-50 region.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy AUD 10K at 1.0470, SL 1.0380, TP 1.0735
Buy AUD 10K at 1.0430, SL 1.0360, TP Open
Happy Trading!
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