TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

Tuesday, February 28, 2012 11:25:53 AM

 TradeTheNews.com US Market Update

Dow +37 S&P +3 NASDAQ +22

***Economic data***
- (CL) Chile Jan Unemployment Rate: 6.6% v 6.7%e
- (RU) Russia Q4 cumulative Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $18.4B v $11.7B
- (US) ICSC/GS weekly chain store sales w/e Feb 25th: -1.0% w/w; +2.7% y/y
- (DE) Germany Feb CPI -Baden Wuerttemberg M/M: +0.9% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2% prior
- (DE) Germany Feb CPI North Rhine Westphalia M/M: 0.6% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8% prior
- (HU) Hungary Central Bank leaves Base Rate unchanged at 7.00%; as expected
- (DE) Germany Feb Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.1%e
- (DE) Germany Feb Preliminary CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.9% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.2%e
- (US) Jan Durable Goods Orders: -4.0% v -1.0%e; Durables Ex Transportation: -3.2% v 0.0%e
- (US) Redbook Retail Sales w/e Feb 25th: +2.9% y/y; Feb MTD: +1.6% v Jan
- (US) Dec S&P/Case-Shiller Composite-20 M/M: -0.50% v -0.35%e; Y/Y: -3.99% v -3.65%e; HPI: 136.71 v 137.11e
- (US) Q4 S&P/Case-Shiller House Price Index Y/Y: -4.03 v -4.3%e; HPI: 125.67 v 130.66 prior
- (EU) ECB Forex Reserves w/e Feb 24th: €277.1B vs. €277.4B prior
- (US) Feb Consumer Confidence: 70.8 v 63.0e
- (US) Feb Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 20 v 14e
- (PE) Peru Q4 GDP Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.5%e

- Equity indices are making cautious gains this morning as late-breaking economic data helps make up for the very weak January durables reading out before the open of the US trading session. The February consumer confidence reading beat consensus expectations and pushed out to a one-year high, while the Richmond Fed's February manufacturing index widely topped estimates. Before the open, the January Durable Goods Orders racked up their largest decline in three years, with both the headline and non-defense reading down more than 4%. This data is the first sour note after a string of better US reports. Front month WTI crude is back below $109 this morning, while traders are watching a spike in the price of silver closely. Spot silver is up more than 3% so far this morning, without a similar move seen in spot gold.

- In earnings, shares of URS Corp plummeted as much as 6% after hours last night after the firm missed both top- and bottom-line expectations, on sharply lower net income. The stock retraced to -3% in the early going this morning. Priceline.com is up 7% after the firm widely beat expectations in its Q4 and offered excellent guidance for Q1. Both domestic and international bookings were up robustly on a y/y basis. Troubled shipping firm YRC Worldwide saw a massive quarterly loss, despite solid revenue growth and shipping volume increases. The loss included plenty of restructuring charges. More second-line retailers are reporting this week. Auto component firms AutoZone and Sonic Automotive both topping expectations on strong sales, and Office Depot had solidly in-line financial results, despite very soft sales comps.

- The euro was pretty steady through the European session, although FX trading during the US session was complicated by Ireland's call for a referendum on the EU fiscal compact. Investor John Paulson was said to have commented that the euro might ultimately fall apart. EUR/USD gave back earlier gains but remains above the 1.3370 hourly support that was tested numerous times in yesterday's session. There are likely to be euro sell-stops building below that level. On a positive note, the EU/IMF/ECB troika confirmed that the country's bailout program remained on track. The ECB three-year LTRO lending operation will be held tomorrow, Feb 29th.

***Looking Ahead***
- (FI) Finland's Parliament votes on second Greek Bailout
- 10:30 (UK) DMO to announce size of 0.75% I/L 2034 and conventional 2017 Gilt
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.00B in Notes
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $1.5-2.0B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:30 (CH) SNB's Jordan speaks in Zurich
- 13:00 (EU) EU's Barroso speaks at Automobile Makers Event in Brussels
- 13:00 (EU) U.S. Ambassador to EU Kennard speaks at Autoworld in Brussels
- 13:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Private Banks Lending (BRL): No est v 1.143T prior; Total Outstanding Loans (BRL): No est v 2.030T prior; M/M: No est v 2.3% prior
- 14:00 (UK) BOE's Tucker
- 14:00 (BR) Brazil Jan Central Govt Budget (BRL): No est v 2.0B prior
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Jan Supermarket Sales Y/Y: No est v 14.2% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- 19:15 (US) Fed's Pianalto speaks on Economy in Westfield Center, Ohio
- (US) Republican Arizona Primary
- (US) Republican Michigan Primary
- (JP) BOJ Conference, Fukuoka City, Japan

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.