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Saturday, March 10, 2012

FOREX NEWS - euro up on Greek relief; China, U.S. data next

* Greece optimism underpins euro, high-beta currencies
* Athens secures strong support for debt swap deal
* China inflation, U.S. jobs data next in focus
By Ian Chua
SYDNEY, March 9 (Reuters) - The euro and commodity currencies held on to overnight gains in Asia on Friday after Greece moved closer to securing fresh funds needed to avoid a messy debt default.
But further gains will depend on China's consumer inflation data due around 0130 GMT and industrial output at 0530 GMT, which could either support or undermine the improving risk sentiment.
The single currency stood at $1.3274, having risen some 1 percent on Thursday after Greece looked close to getting 95 percent agreement on its bond swap offer to private creditors to lighten its debt burden.
This saw the greenback fall to its lowest level this week against a basket of major currencies. The greenback though, managed to rise against the safe-haven yen, climbing to 81.55 from Thursday's low of 81.06.
Preliminary results of Greece's bond swap offer are expected to be announced officially at 0600 GMT, before a conference call with euro zone finance ministers in the afternoon.
It was not yet clear whether Greece could avoid enforcing the exchange on recalcitrant holdouts, which would mean the outcome would not trigger payouts on credit default swaps.
The euro was on track to end the week in positive territory, having recouped all its mid-week losses, when doubts of a Greek swap deal had sapped risk appetite.
Support for the single currency is seen at the 55-day moving average at $1.3081, with resistance pegged around $1.3335, the 61.8 percent retracement of the Feb 29 to March 7 fall.
Also helping the euro were comments from the European Central Bank, which gave a surprise warning on inflation, suggesting further policy easing was unlikely.
Along with the euro, commodity currencies also gained ground. The Australian dollar fetched $1.0641, well off the previous session's low of $1.0531. Data on Thursday showing a surprise fall in employment is now firmly in the rear-view mirror.
U.S. jobs data due late on Friday will also be closely watched, especially after the Wall Street Journal reported earlier in the week that Federal Reserve officials were considering sterilised quantitative easing to further help the economic recovery.
An outcome that bolsters such expectations could be the dollar's undoing.
"Our long-term view is still that the EUR/USD will be higher and the relative hawkishness of comments from ECB President Mario Draghi is a reminder that at its heart, the ECB 'wants' to normalise policy while Ben Bernanke 'wants' to buy more protection against disaster," said Kit Juckes, strategist at Societe Generale.
© Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved.
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