GOOD MORNING!
EQUITIES
Mixed picture in A-Pac equities today, a little more negative than positive. Indices range from -0.62% (Korea) to +0.53% (New Zealand). The Dow (12922.02) had closed only marginally higher on Friday, even though the NFP fad come in better than expected at +227K.
Tomorrow is a big day for the USA, with the Retail Sales (expectation +1.1%) and FOMC due tomorrow. The big question for the market is, will better economic data suggest that the Fed will start slowing down on its monetary support? Will there be no QE3? Will liquidity be impacted?
Stocks in India could be mixed, or positive, reacting to the 75bp CRR cut announced on Friday. The Nifty (5333.55) has to remain above 5300 for immediate bullishness. Else, there could be chances of a dip towards the 5200 Support.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1709) found some Support at 1680 last week and has bounced a bit. A rise past 1720, if seen, would put some shine back into the yellow metal. Silver (34.03) had also bounced last week from a low near 32.40. Nymex Crude (106.80) looks bullish with Support at 106.00 and has chances of seeing 110 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Gains for the Dollar and the Yen all around. A "risk off" morning. The Euro (1.3095) is trading below 1.3100, having seen a low of 1.3084 in early Asian trade. Dollar-Yen (82.18) is seeing profit-taking from Friday's high of 82.64 and can dip to test Support at 82.00. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.64) has fallen sharply in early Asian trade, seeing a low of 107.50, and might test 107.25 on the downside.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9207) has risen, reflecting the weakness in the Euro. But, important intra-day Resistance is seen near 0.9250 today. Could hold.
The Aussie (1.0534) has also fallen further in early Asia today, and is not inspiring confidence. Levels of 1.0500, and lower, could be seen. The Pound (1.5668) had fallen sharply on Friday and remains on the mat today. However, some "range support" may be available near 1.5640-20.
Among the Emerging currencies, the Singapore Dollar is trading a little weak within an overall sideways range of 1.2460-2670. The current USD-SGD rate is 1.2595. The Brazilian Real (1.7908) had closed substantially weaker on Friday. Looking at the weakness in the non-Dollar currencies, there would be chances of the Rupee weakening towards 50.00 as compared to Friday's closing of 49.8450.
INTEREST RATES
The German-US 2-Yr Bond Differential is becoming more negative, trading near -0.15%. This is bearish for the Euro. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd
US Yields seem to be stabilising a bit, with the 10-Yr (2.03%) hovering around 2% for the last few months. The 5-Yr (0.90%) continues to trade below 1.0%, but that also looks like stabilising a bit.Although interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time, they can stabilise a bit for a while.
US 3-mth LIBOR (0.4736%) is stabilising a bit after having come down from levels near 0.57% over the last several weeks.
EQUITIES
Mixed picture in A-Pac equities today, a little more negative than positive. Indices range from -0.62% (Korea) to +0.53% (New Zealand). The Dow (12922.02) had closed only marginally higher on Friday, even though the NFP fad come in better than expected at +227K.
Tomorrow is a big day for the USA, with the Retail Sales (expectation +1.1%) and FOMC due tomorrow. The big question for the market is, will better economic data suggest that the Fed will start slowing down on its monetary support? Will there be no QE3? Will liquidity be impacted?
Stocks in India could be mixed, or positive, reacting to the 75bp CRR cut announced on Friday. The Nifty (5333.55) has to remain above 5300 for immediate bullishness. Else, there could be chances of a dip towards the 5200 Support.
COMMODITIES
Gold (1709) found some Support at 1680 last week and has bounced a bit. A rise past 1720, if seen, would put some shine back into the yellow metal. Silver (34.03) had also bounced last week from a low near 32.40. Nymex Crude (106.80) looks bullish with Support at 106.00 and has chances of seeing 110 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
Gains for the Dollar and the Yen all around. A "risk off" morning. The Euro (1.3095) is trading below 1.3100, having seen a low of 1.3084 in early Asian trade. Dollar-Yen (82.18) is seeing profit-taking from Friday's high of 82.64 and can dip to test Support at 82.00. The Euro-Yen Cross (107.64) has fallen sharply in early Asian trade, seeing a low of 107.50, and might test 107.25 on the downside.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9207) has risen, reflecting the weakness in the Euro. But, important intra-day Resistance is seen near 0.9250 today. Could hold.
The Aussie (1.0534) has also fallen further in early Asia today, and is not inspiring confidence. Levels of 1.0500, and lower, could be seen. The Pound (1.5668) had fallen sharply on Friday and remains on the mat today. However, some "range support" may be available near 1.5640-20.
Among the Emerging currencies, the Singapore Dollar is trading a little weak within an overall sideways range of 1.2460-2670. The current USD-SGD rate is 1.2595. The Brazilian Real (1.7908) had closed substantially weaker on Friday. Looking at the weakness in the non-Dollar currencies, there would be chances of the Rupee weakening towards 50.00 as compared to Friday's closing of 49.8450.
INTEREST RATES
The German-US 2-Yr Bond Differential is becoming more negative, trading near -0.15%. This is bearish for the Euro. Take a look at
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/eurusddiff.shtml#eurusd
US Yields seem to be stabilising a bit, with the 10-Yr (2.03%) hovering around 2% for the last few months. The 5-Yr (0.90%) continues to trade below 1.0%, but that also looks like stabilising a bit.Although interest rates are unlikely to rise for a long time, they can stabilise a bit for a while.
US 3-mth LIBOR (0.4736%) is stabilising a bit after having come down from levels near 0.57% over the last several weeks.
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