GOOD MORNING!
EQUITIES
The Dow (13046.14, -78.48, -0.60%) dipped yesterday. Support is seen at 13000 in the near term.
A-Pac shares are mixed, largely lower, ranging from -1.0% (Nikkei) to +0.36% (Singapore). Importantly, the Shanghai Composite (2361.08, -14.69, -0.62%) continues to trade above the 2350-30 Support region despite the dip in the Chinese PMI yesterday. The DAX (6981.26) has immediate Support at 6931, but also has strong Resistance near 7300 on the Weekly line chart. This is something to be worried about.
The Nifty (5228.45) fell badly yesterday, reacting to the lower Eurozone PMI, but has Support in the 5200-5150 region, as can be seen on the 3-day and Weekly Candles on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/niftycandle.shtml#candle
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (105.58) and Copper (3.79) retains their 104.00-108.20 and 3.70-4.00 sideways range respectively. Crude has important/strong Support in 104-103 region and only a strong break below 103 will trigger further fall. While above 103, we do not see any major threat for the Crude on the downside.
Gold (1646) and Silver (31.54) remains weak. While Gold can test 1600 on the downside, Silver looks vulnerable for a fall to 28 or even lower on a strong break below 30 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3200) has managed to claw back a bit from yesterday's low of 1.3134, but has important Resistance at 1.3220. The overall outlook is sideways consolidative. The Aussie (1.0402) has also not seen further selling and has Supports at 1.0350 and 1.0300. The EUR-AUD (1.2690) also has Resistance near 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen (82.86) saw a profit-taking dip to 82.32 yesterday, but has bounced back a bit from there. Beware of intra-day Resistance near 83.15, though. Further profit-taking is possible. The Euro-Yen Cross (109.33) looks bearish with strong Resistance at 109.50-60.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9133) retains an overall sideways movement, like the Euro. The Pound (1.5817) ran into profit-taking yesterday and fell alongwith the Euro. It has intra-day Resistance near 1.5850 and could be vulnerable to a fall unless that is broken.
USD-BRL (1.8185) is caught between Resistance near 1.8265 and Support at 1.8134, at a very crucial juncture. The USD-SGD (1.2629) continues to trade sideways. Onshore Dollar-Rupee market is closed today on account of Gudi Padwa. Offshore rates are coming in near 51.07, as compared to yesterday's close near 51.2250. Good Resistance is seen at 51.45 on Monday.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields remained stable yesterday. The 2yr yield was down 1bps to quote at 0.37% while the 5yr and 10yr yields were flat at 1.13% and 2.29%. The 2yr yields can rise further towards 0.5%-0.6%.
On the other hand, the weak economic data release from the Euro zone has pulled the German bund yields further down. The 2yr, 5yr and 10yr bund yields were down 3bps, 6bps and 7bps each to quote at 0.27%, 0.93% and 1.91% Respectively.
DATA TODAY
23:01 GMT or 4:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected 49 ...Previous 47
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Expected 2.7% ...Previous 2.5%
15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST Dec US New Home Sales
...Expected 326K ...Previous 321K
DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.
EQUITIES
The Dow (13046.14, -78.48, -0.60%) dipped yesterday. Support is seen at 13000 in the near term.
A-Pac shares are mixed, largely lower, ranging from -1.0% (Nikkei) to +0.36% (Singapore). Importantly, the Shanghai Composite (2361.08, -14.69, -0.62%) continues to trade above the 2350-30 Support region despite the dip in the Chinese PMI yesterday. The DAX (6981.26) has immediate Support at 6931, but also has strong Resistance near 7300 on the Weekly line chart. This is something to be worried about.
The Nifty (5228.45) fell badly yesterday, reacting to the lower Eurozone PMI, but has Support in the 5200-5150 region, as can be seen on the 3-day and Weekly Candles on the following page:
http://www.kshitij.com/graphgallery/niftycandle.shtml#candle
COMMODITIES
Nymex Crude (105.58) and Copper (3.79) retains their 104.00-108.20 and 3.70-4.00 sideways range respectively. Crude has important/strong Support in 104-103 region and only a strong break below 103 will trigger further fall. While above 103, we do not see any major threat for the Crude on the downside.
Gold (1646) and Silver (31.54) remains weak. While Gold can test 1600 on the downside, Silver looks vulnerable for a fall to 28 or even lower on a strong break below 30 in the coming days.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3200) has managed to claw back a bit from yesterday's low of 1.3134, but has important Resistance at 1.3220. The overall outlook is sideways consolidative. The Aussie (1.0402) has also not seen further selling and has Supports at 1.0350 and 1.0300. The EUR-AUD (1.2690) also has Resistance near 1.2750.
Dollar-Yen (82.86) saw a profit-taking dip to 82.32 yesterday, but has bounced back a bit from there. Beware of intra-day Resistance near 83.15, though. Further profit-taking is possible. The Euro-Yen Cross (109.33) looks bearish with strong Resistance at 109.50-60.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9133) retains an overall sideways movement, like the Euro. The Pound (1.5817) ran into profit-taking yesterday and fell alongwith the Euro. It has intra-day Resistance near 1.5850 and could be vulnerable to a fall unless that is broken.
USD-BRL (1.8185) is caught between Resistance near 1.8265 and Support at 1.8134, at a very crucial juncture. The USD-SGD (1.2629) continues to trade sideways. Onshore Dollar-Rupee market is closed today on account of Gudi Padwa. Offshore rates are coming in near 51.07, as compared to yesterday's close near 51.2250. Good Resistance is seen at 51.45 on Monday.
INTEREST RATES
The US Treasury yields remained stable yesterday. The 2yr yield was down 1bps to quote at 0.37% while the 5yr and 10yr yields were flat at 1.13% and 2.29%. The 2yr yields can rise further towards 0.5%-0.6%.
On the other hand, the weak economic data release from the Euro zone has pulled the German bund yields further down. The 2yr, 5yr and 10yr bund yields were down 3bps, 6bps and 7bps each to quote at 0.27%, 0.93% and 1.91% Respectively.
DATA TODAY
23:01 GMT or 4:31 IST UK Cons Conf
...Expected 49 ...Previous 47
12:00 GMT or 17:30 IST CA Core Inflation Index Y/Y
...Expected 2.7% ...Previous 2.5%
15:00 GMT or 20:30 IST Dec US New Home Sales
...Expected 326K ...Previous 321K
DATA YESTERDAY
No major data release yesterday.
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