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Sunday, April 29, 2012

€ Euro at risk if Spanish GDP, slower Inflation Drive ECB rate cut Paris

Discussion points
Euro at risk if Spanish, slower GDP Inflation Drive ECB rate cut Paris Australian Dollar further as traders Set views on the report of domestic product gross Spain of RBA meeting headlines the economic calendar European hours. Expectations call for output decrease of 0.4% in the first quarter in the three months through December, marking the second consecutive print in negative territory and put the country in a technical recession. Merchants are turning to the result in the context of the debt crisis in the eurozone in the widespread fears that the Spain is bound to follow the Greece on the road to insolvency. A low reading is likely to keep investors fearing that a recession will cut the Government tax take and limit the scope of additional austerity, derail deficit reduction efforts.
Also, a preliminary estimate of eurozone Consumer Price Index in April reading should show that inflation slowed to an annual rate of 2.5%, the lowest in eight months. With confirmation of the recession in Spain, fourth largest economy of the block of the currency, the result can begin to plant the seeds of the ECB rates on the horizon. Needless to say that these results could threaten the Euro. On the front of the issue, the France is the sale of EUR 8 billion in-91, 154 and 364-day bills. As usual, market monitor average yield and readings of the bid to cover the signs of stress, same funding short tenor of debt on offer may somewhat limit the potential of fireworks.
The Australian Dollar lower overnight as traders seemed to come from the decision of regional interest for Africa of tomorrow, where policy makers are widely expected to reduce the cost of borrowing by 25 points of reference. Set of economic data of the day reinforced pressure sale. TD Securities inflation indicator developed growth rates annualized price to 1.9 percent in April, marking the second month below 2-3% range of the RBA. Separately, the growth of credit to the private sector on year slows to 3.4%, the lowest in six months. A minimum of three months on the economic index of China which has even undermined the Aussie in the fears that the slowdown of the partner of the Australia top of page export conditions will convert faltering growth and finally rate RBA deep cuts in the coming months.
Asia session: What happened
Balance commerciale 12mth CDA (NZ$) (MAR)
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (APR)
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (APR)
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (APR)
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (APR)
NBNZ (APR) business confidence
HIA new sales at home (MoM) (MAR)
Private sector credit (YoY) (MAR)
Private sector credit (MoM) (MAR)
Session of the euro: what to expect
Spanish GDP (constant) (YoY) (1 q, P)
Spanish GDP (constant) (QoQ) (1 q, P)
Eurozone M3 s.a. (AVG. 3mth) (MAR)
Estimate of the ICC to the eurozone (YoY) (APR)
IPC Italy (tobacco including NIC) (MoM) (APR, P)
IPC Italy (tobacco including NIC) (YoY) (APR, P)
Italian ICC - EU harmonized (MoM) (APR, P)
Italian ICC - EU harmonized (YoY) (APR, P)
France sell billions € in vouchers 91-364 day
Critical levels

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