Japanese Yen looks vulnerable in the wake of the Summit. It will last?

Fundamental forecasts for the Japanese Yen: neutral
The Yen had a week relatively strong, finish as the third best performer behind the Australia and New Zealand $. Despite the large gathering risk Friday, the Yen was able to exceed the Dollar of the United States, where it acquired more than 0.78% against. Indeed, the week better sought the Yen before Friday, he became a gesture widely accepted (by this analyst included) that the Summit of the Euro area, would be substantive measures little, if any, to stem the crisis at its roots. And while we believe that this will be the case - that the markets would measures of the Summit as "not enough": the combination of a clarity out of Europe, the end of the month and the end of the quarter was enough to see that the Yen dumped for the currencies of performance more high and correlated with the risk of the assets.
Beyond the Summit and move to some wild speculation before the usual discussion of the economic role of this week, the price today action is strangely similar to the day to the top of the zone Euro concluded in October 2012. In fact, if November 30 is not considered, the Australian Dollar and the Euro had their performance stronger from that day - and then markets subsequently fell into a spiral through the first weeks of three and a half of November.
Similarly, the so-called "pause" to the crisis created an air of feeling this appetite for risk would be abundant, at least for a few days. And with the weakening Yen, then as it did today, officials at the Bank of Japan intervened in markets October 31, 2011, for the period of "calm" to weaken their currency. Even if it is a remote and largely unknown possibility, there is little reason to believe that a more moderate BoJ wouldn't do the same thing in the next few days.
With respect, we find that a rate BoJ decision comes in the second week of July. To come from this meeting, however, there are a few pieces of data on the record which could influence the BoJ when they convene. Broadly speaking, there are two days, what matters this week of the Japanese Yen in terms of risk of the planned event: Monday and Friday.
On Monday, Tankan survey second quarter are the and they expected you to show an image of competing for the sectors of manufacturing and non-manufacturing of the Japanese economy growth. While large manufacturers Tankan index is expected to remain on hold at-4, Outlook should fall to-4 to-3 in the first quarter, according to a Bloomberg News survey. On the reverse, the Tankan Non manufacturing index is expected to increase from 7 to 5, and the prospects are expected to improve to 6-5. Overall, this should be slightly positive round of polls Tankan, which might deter the BoJ to act at its meeting the week after.
Friday, two smaller versions are due, but they nevertheless deserve to be. The preliminary may coincides and indexes that are due, and both are expected to show the erosion of the views of the economy. The coincident Index, a composite index of indicators of the economic cycle, is expected to show a drop to 95.7 of 96.9 in April. Similarly, the main Index, a composite index of twelve key indicators of the economy Japan and is expected to decrease from 95.6 to 95.0.
Thus, what we are seeing here is a mix but distorted the image of the decline of the Japanese economy by the various data due this week. When one considers the sum, they may be sufficient to start the speculation about the BoJ do something more accommodating at their meeting next week. And while these are considerations strongly downward, we always believe them that results of the Summit of the Euro area will be low, so the rise of the Yen is broadly neutral with the prospect of a significant and rapid change for security at any time in the near future. -CV