30 June 2012 03: 00 GMT
fundamental forecasts for New Zealand Dollar: neutral
The New Zealand Dollar had a strong week (despite measures of price rather without interest earlier in the week) finish as the second best performer overall, losing only 0.36% for the Australian Dollar. Performance of the Kiwi against most of the majors, loosely speaking, has been fairly muted. but for the US Dollar, which was the worst performer and lost 1.35% for the Dollar New Zealand, all the other majors amortized 0.65% or less against the Kiwi. Indeed, it was the dump of the US Dollar Friday that caused much of the performance of the Kiwi, but after a more hard that Reserve Bank of New Zealand a few weeks back alongside a remarkable first quarter of GDP print, basic posture of the Kiwi is bullish in the short term.
That said, there are several exogenous forces, influence the behavior of the Kiwi recently; its basic operation is less on what is happening in New Zealand and more on what happens to halfway around the world. The solution to very short term to the crisis of the Euro area alongside the worst data of the United States provided two things that have fueled the beta coins high and correlated with the risk of assets such as the New Zealand Dollar: This implies that European countries will back away from the edge of failure, for the capital to move off the coast of the margin in what has become an environment relatively more clearly invest; and the fact that as long as the US economy remains in the pot black (we are almost to the point of it became fashionable to say the US economy is headed toward a recession), the federal reserve will watch with his finger on the trigger IS3.
This week economic record is unusually thin for the New Zealand, and an event of significance "low" on the record and zero events of importance "medium" or "high" obvious, according to the economic calendar DailyFX. Historically, prices of the raw report of ANZ has done little to move the Kiwi (if ever) it is not a value by expanding beyond this sentence. Instead, we must continue to stress the influence of the crisis in the eurozone on the New Zealand Dollar, and it is this relationship - underlying driver of the planet of the feeling of risk - that the Kiwi will find its place in a week.
Namely: February 6 Investors Service of Moody's said that the economy of the New Zealand had been among the "more exposed" to the crisis, further noting that the banking system (and the Australia and the Korea) is "more vulnerable to the impact of the first round more deepening of the crisis in the euro area than other systems in the Asia-Pacific.". Indeed, since mid-March, when the Euro-zone crisis began reheating, CDS 5 years of New Zealand climbed 36%, from 65.98 to 90.00 when writing today. It is still much improved from its peak this year, when he climbed high 109.00 in early June. However, when questions of the Euro area - we have seen attempts by leaders to stabilize the markets do not succeed in October and November 2011, in late February and early March 2012, and then again after the Spanish bailout in June 2012 - the New Zealand Dollar will be more exposed. Because the return of these concerns may be any time since the beginning of operations in July a few weeks later, remain cautiously optimistic on the Kiwi, but choose a neutral position for the upcoming week. -CV
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
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30 June 2012 03: 00 GMT
fundamental forecasts for New Zealand Dollar: neutralThe New Zealand Dollar had a strong week (despite measures of price rather without interest earlier in the week) finish as the second best performer overall, losing only 0.36% for the Australian Dollar. Performance of the Kiwi against most of the majors, loosely speaking, has been fairly muted. but for the US Dollar, which was the worst performer and lost 1.35% for the Dollar New Zealand, all the other majors amortized 0.65% or less against the Kiwi. Indeed, it was the dump of the US Dollar Friday that caused much of the performance of the Kiwi, but after a more hard that Reserve Bank of New Zealand a few weeks back alongside a remarkable first quarter of GDP print, basic posture of the Kiwi is bullish in the short term.
That said, there are several exogenous forces, influence the behavior of the Kiwi recently; its basic operation is less on what is happening in New Zealand and more on what happens to halfway around the world. The solution to very short term to the crisis of the Euro area alongside the worst data of the United States provided two things that have fueled the beta coins high and correlated with the risk of assets such as the New Zealand Dollar: This implies that European countries will back away from the edge of failure, for the capital to move off the coast of the margin in what has become an environment relatively more clearly invest; and the fact that as long as the US economy remains in the pot black (we are almost to the point of it became fashionable to say the US economy is headed toward a recession), the federal reserve will watch with his finger on the trigger IS3.
This week economic record is unusually thin for the New Zealand, and an event of significance "low" on the record and zero events of importance "medium" or "high" obvious, according to the economic calendar DailyFX. Historically, prices of the raw report of ANZ has done little to move the Kiwi (if ever) it is not a value by expanding beyond this sentence. Instead, we must continue to stress the influence of the crisis in the eurozone on the New Zealand Dollar, and it is this relationship - underlying driver of the planet of the feeling of risk - that the Kiwi will find its place in a week.
Namely: February 6 Investors Service of Moody's said that the economy of the New Zealand had been among the "more exposed" to the crisis, further noting that the banking system (and the Australia and the Korea) is "more vulnerable to the impact of the first round more deepening of the crisis in the euro area than other systems in the Asia-Pacific.". Indeed, since mid-March, when the Euro-zone crisis began reheating, CDS 5 years of New Zealand climbed 36%, from 65.98 to 90.00 when writing today. It is still much improved from its peak this year, when he climbed high 109.00 in early June. However, when questions of the Euro area - we have seen attempts by leaders to stabilize the markets do not succeed in October and November 2011, in late February and early March 2012, and then again after the Spanish bailout in June 2012 - the New Zealand Dollar will be more exposed. Because the return of these concerns may be any time since the beginning of operations in July a few weeks later, remain cautiously optimistic on the Kiwi, but choose a neutral position for the upcoming week. -CV
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
Learn forex trading with a free account for practice and exchange of FXCM charts.
30 June 2012 03: 00 GMT
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