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Thursday, June 14, 2012

Latest Fix is in for Spain (FXA)

As bearish as I am on the Euro-zone amendment, much less spanish patch, I can help? T but feel that you can kick the bailout Spain? S bank is in the cards? Find another reason to sell risk other than the problem of mountain undercapitalized banking system, at least at the moment. European press reports last two days have shown that Germany had come around the adoption of the EU funded grant for Spain? S Banking System, the details must still be overcome. JGB yields all spoke volumes about the crisis and direct through last week's run on bank deposits in Spain and plummeting Bund, the Treasury, Gilt. On the left side to their own markets will drive the financial system to the abyss with the EZ economy as a caravan towed bottom. The weekend telephone conference call the White House and Tuesday? S G7 seems compelled by hand the Germans to agree to use the resources in the EU, where Germany contributes the most, in order to recapitalize the banks in Spain. Spain 's government in the meantime I have ordered an independent audit of banks, Spain? Is it will be announced at the end of June, the level of capital banks need. Prime Minister Rajoy won? T ask for any assistance until the inspection is complete it is approaching? But that is just a matter of waiting to finish the process? A request. The IMF also conducted and evaluation of a bank's capital need of Spain and its Findings? E37bln said today. Market assumptions have been bandied in the E80-100bln. I don? T claim to the mode of action of how Spain's need to recapitalize banks. But I think that Ireland went through at Spain still pass through? large government subsidy of the banking system due to bursting of property bubble. In Ireland, the bank bailout hit spots 40%? GDP, which some property prices have fallen by 80%. If we take E80bln as the size of bank financing in Spain would be only 7% of Spanish GDP. What explains the point of 33% spread between Ireland 's bailout and Spain? S? Well no real estate bubble both were exactly alike. But even if one assumes bigger real estate bubble in Ireland than Spain, it is still hard to imagine that even the 20% point difference in financing costs as a share of GDP is justified. Entering my cynicism intended by what we can expect an audit Find Now, the IMF increased from E37bln, fully expected to EZ Teed can kick it? Spain takes the EU funds to the banks (for their own claims) and lives to fight another day. Amendment is in Spanish, even if temporary? Between-performing home mortgages and the economy growing weaker, capital needs assessment is some sort of evolution. So that leaves Greece?'s June 17 election as a fly in the Ointment EZ in dislocation. And frankly I think that the reason Greece is already lost. But the rules of the game in the casino are the rules and what SYRIZA casino game is. If you take more share of votes than the center right of the new democracies, the markets will resume trading off risk. Regardless of what world opinion or the Greek main political parties say? The Greek people do not believe that the vote is a vote for SYRIZA to complete the euro. So long as this condition holds for the election, all bets are off? In you can see fresh exercise of Greek banks, soaring Greek yields (10-yr business performance today, 350 / s? Patients) and fan expectations will be similar. In this context, not even a Spanish bank bailout assumptions prevent the markets from a car driving towards the edge of the ravine EZ. So I think we have a window of a risk to run higher into the Greek election? And if ND surprises by majority vote and pathetic Panhellenic Socialist Movement can be obtained sufficient to form a coalition with ND, we may simply appear at the bottom of the medium euro hit 1.2285 in the last week. However, Pila drops, cut a circle in the floor around the euro and that the saw is the economic data. The increase in the fast pace and Germany 's exports outside the EZ life is appended distances quickly? China, U.S., Russia and Asia ex China. David Gilmore Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on forex research headlines page below. Find real-time forex market news provided by respected authors on commercial currency. Daily forex market news, weekly and monthly forex research forex news features can be found here. Forex News Real Time Forex market news and features providing other currency trading information can be obtained by clicking on any of these headings. In the upper part of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Go to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click the link to recent reports at the Forex market. World Currencies News from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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