In the last months, these pages have warned the slowdown of global growth and gross as the leading indicator. Crude fell 18% in may, compared with only a little more than a 6% decrease in the 500 S & P. Reitterating the position that raw is the head ("say" If you want to) in the next wave of develeveraging, shares are probably much more in the coming months. This means of course more to the USD but probably not before a withdrawal (more that below). We will not consider. the NZD was the big loser in May against the USD (other than the MXN and SEK). My goal is to stay on the higher yielding AUD and NZD in June. It is easy to get lost in the press and the volatility if allowed to happen…so does. Keep it simple; identify the main levels and know what you are going to do when these levels is achieved.
Action of today may mark the beginning of a movement of the opposite trend. I hope that this is so that we can buy USD at the best price. As always, the beginning is important because extreme prices are more likely to occur in the first days of the month (especially the first day). In this spirit, I would consider a brutal price correction which may lasts a week.
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Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) arises today to tag 103000 before reversing sharply. The withdrawal was difficult, but a new month offers a new perspective and the pivot (in time) that trade. 10220 is initial support. 10129-10147 would finally be the ideal level to go long with a stop under 10076. In the event where a withdrawal does not materialize then I will adjust levels accordingly.
Euro / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - the EURUSD crashed through 12300 after the NFP exit before recovering quickly. Next support is not up to 12150 but ideally reversal of today reports a depletion in the short term and the beginning of a higher corrective approach. Preliminary resistance now 12500 12640-12715 would be ideal for the short in if reached.
Pound sterling / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - Cable absolutely stagnated this week and actually recorded its largest monthly decline since October 2008 to 5.11%. The decline of this week is the largest since the week that ended on 25/11/11. I have had recent action completely wrong because I was expecting a short rebound before 15600 to make more closely 15850. No there was no rebound courses (the GBPUSD has not yet reach the average of 10 days) and the GBPUSD has taken almost all of the gains from 2012 and reached the trendline that extends off the coast of the hollow of 2009 and 2010. The January low is 15233. May fall below there is necessary before we receive a greater recovery. Resistance would become 15460-15530 then 15630-15720.
Australian dollar / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - the AUDUSD is traded under the bottom of November today and its lowest level since October, 2011. The objective of June should be to align with the larger bear trend, which is difficult to psychologically given the magnitude of the decline. 9800 and 9900/50 are the resistance. We will treat targets when we get there, but a descending slope channel is some 9115 this month.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - the NZDUSD tested once more on December low and listed on the stock exchange in the gap that was left open from 28/11/11, before recovering. The objective of June should be to align with the larger bear trend, which is difficult to psychologically given the magnitude of the decline. resistance is 7675-7720. We are going to deal with targets when we get there, but it is noted that the NZDUSD is drag below long term of head neck and shoulders.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Every day bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Jamie - USDJPY traded in mid-February congestion today before rebounding strongly (on what could have intervention). Once again, the time of the month (at the beginning) combined with the intraday (reversal) action offers an opportunity. I have noted daily RSI, which is almost 30. In General, this level (30) will be held if a larger bubble is underway (from the record low in this case).
Action of today may mark the beginning of a movement of the opposite trend. I hope that this is so that we can buy USD at the best price. As always, the beginning is important because extreme prices are more likely to occur in the first days of the month (especially the first day). In this spirit, I would consider a brutal price correction which may lasts a week.
***
Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR)
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) arises today to tag 103000 before reversing sharply. The withdrawal was difficult, but a new month offers a new perspective and the pivot (in time) that trade. 10220 is initial support. 10129-10147 would finally be the ideal level to go long with a stop under 10076. In the event where a withdrawal does not materialize then I will adjust levels accordingly.
Euro / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - the EURUSD crashed through 12300 after the NFP exit before recovering quickly. Next support is not up to 12150 but ideally reversal of today reports a depletion in the short term and the beginning of a higher corrective approach. Preliminary resistance now 12500 12640-12715 would be ideal for the short in if reached.
Pound sterling / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - Cable absolutely stagnated this week and actually recorded its largest monthly decline since October 2008 to 5.11%. The decline of this week is the largest since the week that ended on 25/11/11. I have had recent action completely wrong because I was expecting a short rebound before 15600 to make more closely 15850. No there was no rebound courses (the GBPUSD has not yet reach the average of 10 days) and the GBPUSD has taken almost all of the gains from 2012 and reached the trendline that extends off the coast of the hollow of 2009 and 2010. The January low is 15233. May fall below there is necessary before we receive a greater recovery. Resistance would become 15460-15530 then 15630-15720.
Australian dollar / US Dollar
Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - the AUDUSD is traded under the bottom of November today and its lowest level since October, 2011. The objective of June should be to align with the larger bear trend, which is difficult to psychologically given the magnitude of the decline. 9800 and 9900/50 are the resistance. We will treat targets when we get there, but a descending slope channel is some 9115 this month.
New Zealand Dollar / US Dollar
Weekly
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - the NZDUSD tested once more on December low and listed on the stock exchange in the gap that was left open from 28/11/11, before recovering. The objective of June should be to align with the larger bear trend, which is difficult to psychologically given the magnitude of the decline. resistance is 7675-7720. We are going to deal with targets when we get there, but it is noted that the NZDUSD is drag below long term of head neck and shoulders.
US Dollar / Japanese Yen
Every day bars
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMTJamie - USDJPY traded in mid-February congestion today before rebounding strongly (on what could have intervention). Once again, the time of the month (at the beginning) combined with the intraday (reversal) action offers an opportunity. I have noted daily RSI, which is almost 30. In General, this level (30) will be held if a larger bubble is underway (from the record low in this case).
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