$/¥ USDJPY: Waiting for Confirmation to Get Long

Strategy: Long wait
USDJPY in a pattern of upward candlestick engulfing over 78.88 support, intervention on 4 August closing high, but prices have failed to overcome resistance trend line down the value of mid-March (now at 79.78) confirming a reversal on the rise of at hand. We will pursue on the side for the moment, pending this barrier to be violated on a daily basis of closure, before attempting a long position.

?? Waiting for a Washout to Cover AUDUSD

14 May 2012 13:42 GMT FXCM Expo Videos
Innovative Techniques with Traditional Technical Indicators
Trading with the Elliott Wave Principle
Seeing the Forest from the Trees: An Analysis of Global Markets
Afternoon Technicals (all charts)
Other TA (crosses, COT, etc.)
IN GENERAL – The global growth slowdown trade continues to work. Crude and copper are off 2% to start the week while the USD and JPY are up. The next level of interest for crude is a November pivot below 9100. Copper is trading at its lowest level since January and the 2012 low at 3.3925 is significant. Expect a free fall type decline if that level gives way. The same can be said for gold and its December low.
As for the AUDUSD short, price is testing a confluence of channel and trendline support. I continue to look towards 9861 as long as price is below last night’s high (10040). Exceeding that level would shift focus to 10090. Regarding timing, an early week ‘flush’ lower would allow for us to cover and return short on a bounce. Again, 9840/60 is what I am looking for, maybe tonight on RBA May minutes?
Look lower towards 7740 (2012 low) and 7652 in the NZDUSD as long as price is below 7825.
Watch the EURUSD as it approaches potential channel support near 12800. A drop below the channel would set sights on the January low. Last night’s high at 12905 is now the pivot. 12850 is resistance.
If you want to learn more about specific timing strategies (opening range for example) and my trading, then join my next week for a trading bootcamp.
Gold, Copper and Crude Continuous Futures (Daily)
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
AUDUSDand NZDUSD Spot Daily
Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
EURUSD Spot Daily

>> S&P 500 Stalls at Familiar Resitance, Dollar Waiting for Follow-Through

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar is waiting for bullish follow-through as prices drift along rising trend support while the S&P 500 remains capped by familiar range resistance.

S&P 500 – Prices are retesting support-turned-resistance in the 1391.20-1392.10 area marked by the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the former neckline of a Head and Shoulders top pattern. A break above this boundary initially exposes the 61.8% level at 1399.10. Initial support lines up at 1383.20, the 38.2% Fib, with breach below that seeing near-term support at 1373.30.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Weekly Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

CRUDE OIL – Prices are testing resistance at 104.90 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick above rising trend line support set from mid-December. A break above this level exposes falling trend line barriers at 105.41 and 106.56. Support is now at 101.38.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

GOLD – Prices are testing support at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. A break lower exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1669.50.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

US DOLLAR – Prices put in a bullish Piercing Line candlestick pattern above rising trend line support set from early February, hinting a move higher is ahead. Initial resistance stands at 9996, the 50% Fibonacci expansion level. Trend line support is now at 9923.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0