$$ US Dollar May Pull Back Before Larger Rally Continues

11 May 2012 03: 51 GMT  THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar may pull back to re-test resistance cleared yesterday before the larger advance resumes. The S & P 500 has scope for a parallel recovery.S & P 500 - Prices put in an Inverted Hammer candlestick above support in the 40 1339-1347 40 area, marked by the 100% Fibonacci expansion and the 38.2% tracing of the rally from the December 19 swing low. The setup points to indecision and hints that a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 1363.50, the 76.4% expansion, with a break higher exposing 1370.60. Alternatively, renewed selling that pierces 1339.40 targets the 50% tracking at 1313.00.
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CRUDE OIL - Prices continue to test support in the 95 78-96 56 area marked by a horizontal barrier in play since early November 2011 as well as the 100% Fibonacci expansion. Similarly to the S & P 500, an Inverted Hammer candlestick hints at the possibility of a corrective bounce. Near-term resistance lines up at 98.89, the 76.4% expansion. A break below support statements 92.51.

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GOLD - Prices are showing an Inverted Hammer above support at 1582.45, the 50% Fibonacci expansion level, hinting a bounce may be ahead. Initial resistance lines up at 1603.42, the 38.2% Fib. Alternatively, renewed selling pressure that takes prices through support would expose the 61.8% expansion at 1561.49.

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US DOLLAR - Prices showing a a Hammer candlestick following the break of resistance at a falling trend line set from mid-March, hinting a corrective pull-back may be ahead before the larger continuous advance. The trend line, now at 9960, has been recast as near-term support. Resistance stands at 10047, the April 5 swing high.
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-Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
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11 May 2012 03: 51 GMT

$$$ US Dollar Holds Key Trend Line Support as S & P 500 Pulls Back

01 May 2012 03: 32 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar managed to hold above trend-defining rising trend line support set from August 2011 as the S & P 500 pulled back to digest recent gains.S & P 500 - Unchanged from yesterday: "Prices took out resistance at 1399.10, the 61.8% Fibonacci level tracing." The bulls now target the 76.4% level at 1409.00. "The 1399.10 level has been recast as near-term support."

 

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CRUDE OIL - Prices put in a Hanging Man candlestick below resistance at 104.90, a form level support, to hint that a pullback may be ahead. A turn lower from here sees initial support at 102.20. Alternatively, a breakout higher targets trend line resistance now at 105.91.

 

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GOLD - Prices took out the top of a falling channel set from early March, with the bulls now aiming to challenge resistance at 1680.00 and 1696.88 marked by key swing highs set on April 12 and March 27. The channel top, now at 1656.74, has been recast as near-term support.

 

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US DOLLAR - Unchanged from yesterday: "Prices are testing rising trend line set from late July 2011, with a break lower threatening to initiate a material bearish trend Exchange." A confirmed break lower initially incurred 9772. "Near-term resistance line up in the 9879-9906 area."

 

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>> S&P 500 Under Pressure as US Dollar Finds Key Support Level

THE TAKEAWAY: S&P 500 selling pressure is gaining steam as prices test through a short-term support level while the US Dollar may have found a base to launch an advance.
S&P 500 – Prices are testing through rising trend line support set from the April 10 low after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick below support-turned-resistance at 1392.10. A confirmed break sees initial downside objectives at 1364.10 and 1357.40.

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CRUDE OIL – Prices remain wedged between resistance at 104.90 and a rising trend line support set from mid-December, with a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern arguing for an upside bias. A break above 104.90 exposes falling trend line barriers at 105.21 and 106.42. Support is now at 101.58.

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GOLD – Prices are testing below support at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after putting in a Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern below falling trend line resistance set from early March. A break lower exposes the 38.2% level at 1612.02. Trend line resistance is now at 1665.57.

 Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices are testing the intersection of a rising trend line set from early February and the bottom of a Triangle chart formation carved out over the past two months, a formation typically indicative of trend continuation (a bullish signal in this case). Near-term resistance lines up at 10007, the Triangle top. Alternatively, a break lower initially exposes 9885.

 Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0