€ Euro and Australian Dollar COT Positioning at Records

Latest CFTC Release dated May 08, 2012:
52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)
0 – commercial longs and speculative shorts at record levels
0 – commercials turn long and speculators turn short for first time since 2008 and record
0 - positioning difference is greatest since 2007
0 - positioning difference is greatest since 2008
0 – positioning difference is greatest since 2009
The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.
Charts
Non Commercials (speculators) – Red
Commercials – Blue
Small Speculators – Black
COTDiff – Black
Volume on bottom
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The latest developments in positioning warrant additional comments. As you review the charts, keep in mind that the COT Index (bottom line) moves with price and extreme levels tend to give way to at least a countertrend move. This week’s open (USD gap lower) underscores this point. Expect continued 2 way action into early June.
US Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Euro

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
British Pound
Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Australian Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Japanese Yen

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Canadian Dollar

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Swiss Franc


Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Gold

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Silver

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Copper

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Crude

Chart prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT

Asian Market Update: China trade data misses expectations, Australia records 1-yr low for "unemployment Have Market Intel?

CHINA APR TRADE BALANCE: $18.42B V $9.9BE >- (AU) AUSTRALIA APR UNEMPLOYMENT RATE: 4.9% V 5.3%E (1-yr low); EMPLOYMENT CHANGE: 15.5K V -5.0KE (2nd consecutive increase); PARTICIPATION RATE: 65.2% V 65.4%E
- (KR) BANK OF KOREA (BOK) LEAVES 7-DAY REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 3.25%; AS EXPECTED
- (JP) JAPAN MAR CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: ¥1.59T V ¥1.4TE; ADJUSTED CURRENT ACCOUNT TOTAL: ¥785.5B V ¥647BE; CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE Y/Y: -8.6% V -17.1%E; TRADE BALANCE: ¥4.2B V -¥43BE
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR BUSINESS NZ PMI: 48.0 V 53.8 PRIOR
- (PH) PHILIPPINES MAR TOTAL EXPORTS: -1.2% V 11.0%E; TOTAL MONTHLY EXPORTS: $4.3B V $4.4B PRIOR
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 3.1% V 3.0% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN APR BANK LENDING INCLUDING TRUSTS Y/Y: 0.3% V 0.8% PRIOR; BANK LENDING EX-TRUSTS Y/Y: 0.4% V 0.9% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN APR BANKRUPTCIES Y/Y: -7.5% V -1.9% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN APR ECO WATCHERS CURRENT SURVEY: 50.9 V 51.8 PRIOR; OUTLOOK: 50.9 V 49.7 PRIOR
- (MA) MALAYSIA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 0.6% V 3.3%E; MANUFACTURING SALES VALUE Y/Y: 3.1% V 12.1% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN APR TOKYO AVERAGE OFFICE VACANCIES Y/Y: 9.2% V 9.0% PRIOR
- (JP) Japan investors bought ¥56B in foreign bonds last week v ¥1.2T sold in prior week
- (CO) Colombia Mar Exports: $5.69B v $4.8B prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.1%
- S&P/ASX +0.1%
- Kospi -0.1%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.2%
- Singapore Straits Times Index -0.2%
- Shanghai Composite -0.2%
- Hang Seng -0.9%
- Jun S&P Futures +0.2% at 1,353
- June gold unchanged at $1,594/oz
- June Crude -0.2% at $96.57
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Focus remains on European uncertainty. Bank of Korea after leaving rates unchanged mentioned it remains one of the top risks, noting that it thinks the EU is in a mild recession but not expected to get worse. China remained cautious with its yuan setting and it expected to continue to do so until the latest storm blows over. According to China Investment Corp President Gao, China sovereign wealth fund has stopped buying European government sovereign debt. Late in the US session, the Fed gave Chinese banks ICBC, Bank of China and Agricultural Bank of China approval to expand into the US market. Crude was weaker, Brent crude rose to $113.20, corn gained over 1% while wheat fell nearly 3% to $5.91 ahead of U.S. Department of Agriculture supply-demand report.
- Australia recorded a lower than expected unemployment rate at 4.9% in April, a 1-year low. Employment change rose for the second consecutive month. The news drove the AUD/USD higher above $1.0115, but will make an argument not to cut rates at the next RBA meeting. Full time jobs lost 10,500, however part time jobs added 26,000 close to March levels. Strength in the jobs market is mostly attributed to the mining boom and the huge investments from the major miners into expanding capacity to meet demand from India and China. Australia 10-year yields around 3.321% after the data.
- China April trade balance came in at a surplus of $18.4B, much higher than expected, exports at 4.9% were weaker than expected, imports rose only 0.3%. Some of the export weakness is attributed to the lack of recovery from European demand. China has increased its calls for the US to ease restriction on high tech exports in recent weeks in order to help imbalances. The yuan fell for a fifth consecutive day after a weaker setting by the PBoC. Shanghai Composite and Hang Seng both declined, iron ore imports say a huge fall off to 57.7M tons, -8% m/m, copper imports also fell 8% m/m, this sent the S&P ASX back towards unchanged territory after rebounding from employment data. Miners in Australia pared back some of their earlier gains as well. Surprisingly copper futures held on to their gains.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) BoJ's Shirai: Japan economic activity is more or less flat though there are indications of improvement
- (HK) Hong Kong govt may increase public housing rent by 10% - HK press
- (KS) South Korea Finance Min Bahk: Recent Won's moves not a concern, as the currency has been moving in a limited range
***Equities***
- Hynix, 000660.KR: Creditors planning to sell half of their 6.4% stake in the company, worth KRW576B - Korean press
- CHU: Expects 3G users to reach 90M by the end of 2012; Sees 3G rev at CNY70B v CNY40B in 2011
- RIO: CEO: Affirms it is more confident out its outlook than 6-months ago; Tackling rising costs, especially in Queensland is challenging - AGM
- STEL.SG: Reports FY12 Net S$3.99B v S$3.8B y/y; Rev S$18.8B v S$18.07B y/y
- ORG.AU: In talks with the United States' Export-Import Bank to acquire A$2.93 B in financing to help fund $6.0B expansion of Australia Liquefied natural gas facility in Gladstone - The Australian
***Fixed Income/Commodities/Forex***
- USD/INR: India Central Bank (RBI) fixes intra-day open position limit in forex at 5-times available limit; Only applies to rupee trades
- (CN) PBoC sells CNY24B in 7-day reverse repos at 3.30% v 3.53% on May 2nd