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Sunday, July 22, 2012

Improve profitability with intraday seasonality

Improve profitability with intraday seasonality
All times are in Eastern Time (GMT-05: 00)
To negotiate successfully, it is important that you know what not to do. A comparison of economic profitability and overall customer satisfaction FXCM account activity (number of accounts that traded this time) (Figure 1) suggests that, to prevent the client during the trading hours of the most active. This idea is of course nonsense. The figures do not explain why traders lose during the hours of operation, but it apparently was an inverse correlation between returns and volatility (more market movements, traders lose more) (Figure 2). The increased volatility of exchange promotes impulsive behavior, and ultimately increases the error committed capital is lost.

Improving_Profitability_with_Intraday_Seasonality_body_Chart_7.png, Improving Profitability with Intraday Seasonality

Figure 1
Improving_Profitability_with_Intraday_Seasonality_body_Picture_6.png, Improving Profitability with Intraday Seasonality
Figure 2
The distribution of daily price extremes by hour since 2005 (last 5 years) for the EURUSD is as follows.
Improving_Profitability_with_Intraday_Seasonality_body_Chart_8.png, Improving Profitability with Intraday Seasonality
Figure 3
Not surprisingly, the extreme intraday price volatility and intraday credit are positively correlated. In fact, there is a tendency to price extremes (highs and lows) and higher volatility at the beginning of each session (Asian, European, North American Meetings) can occur. From 2005 to 2009, the first hour of the trading day (18:00 - Asian Open) produced up to the day almost 8% of the time and the low 6% of the time. In a random environment, it seems an extreme price (high or low) to only 4.17% of the time (1/24 = 4.17%). The period of two hours of 3:00-4:00 (open European) has a high 12% of the time and the low 11% of the time (compared to 8.33% for a random environment). From 9.00 to 11.00 clock 3 hours (U.S. Open and commercial versions), a product of high and low of 20% and 21% of the time (compared to 12.5% ​​for a random environment).
These statistics explain the popularity and relative success of open-end strategies. There are several ways you can increase your chances of success of this information. For example,
Set stops above and below the extreme prices during business hours instead of the range of ups and downs that occur random times.
Only light resistance on rallies, and only during business hours within hours.
Buy only supported if, and only appears during the opening hours in the range of hours.
Buying breakouts aperture range
Sell ​​margins on land opened
The information presented here is not a strategy (determination means) itself, but may increase by improving profitability and positioning elements (risk reduction).

1 comment:

  1. There is no technique to forex dealing. Key to generating a profit is understanding and this can only be accumulated by reading professional reviews on forex programs and indicators.

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