U.S. dollar: Time to shine as a European problem go everywhere

Fundamental Outlook for US-dollar: bullish
The Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) ended the week slightly lower on a sharp late week selloff, but earlier signs of life suggest that the dollar remains comfortably within its upward trend and to win in the coming weeks.
The US dollar open market Committee of the current tariff rallied strongly after the much-anticipated release of minutes from the US Federal decision, but a sharp Friday sale leaves the greenback slightly lower next week trading launched. A relatively limited schedule of economic event risk probably signals that the USD continues to trade from larger financial market sentiment. This is true in particular for the Australian dollar / US dollar pair and other commodity-linked currencies as $correlations to S P 500 & trade close to record strength. So higher specialized works will depend whether the dollar almost certainly of stock indices and other financial market sentiment the trajectory. Two important issues on international investors heads are pretty clear: the future of the US Federal Reserve quantitative easing (QE) and the current European fiscal and financial crises.
On the home front, USD bulls reacted positively to signs that the Fed struck a cautious note over the possibility of more QE in recent FOMC minutes. Greenback weakened considerably by 2009 on the first wave of QE and markets exactly QE2 expected in 2010 decreased. Give the US currency could back some of its recent gains on the future announcement of QE3. Still, the Fed stressed the caution that the next wave is a done deal, and the dollar could remain strong, as the Fed keeps the line on the further expansion of the balance sheet. To force across the Atlantic European fiscal and financial crises continue to significant financial market turbulence and greater risk appetite could be depressed about foreseeable. Credit rating agency of Moody's was to pour the latest gasoline in the fire, as it downgraded sovereign credit rating of Italy. The move itself was not surprising, but the timing of the downs seemed to catch many traders off guard. Italian Government, that 10-year quickly traded in towards the top of their several months reach responds yields as traders on the message. (Bond yields above, if the prices go down)
Instability in the third and fourth largest economies of the eurozone (Italy and Spain, respectively) is probably the most immediate threat to the euro as a currency. We keep a watchful eye on Italian and Spanish Government - returns since Spain is a 10-year craft dangerously close to the ultimate 7 percent in Friday of close. The safe harbor U.S. dollar is accordingly flare-ups in the European market will benefit from any tensions. The last sale starts in Italian and Spanish bonds (increase in income) stress that markets tense despite the recently presented Spanish bailout and others remain growth-oriented European action. Continuing turbulence favoured remaining long 'security' and short 'risk' - long US dollar and short euro.
Our shorter-term bias is clear, and we believe that the recent outbreak of the U.S. dollar may be only the beginning of a larger rally. However, much of dollar Outlook depends on whether S & P keeps the US 500 critical support levels. A breakdown of the financial risk of market sentiment would likely produce the US dollar rally what we have expected that. -DR

Euro and traders of risk may be more skeptical than the European Union provided

30 June 2012 07: 14 GMT  Euro and Risk Traders May Prove More Skeptical than the EU Anticipated
Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearish
EU Summit surprises with open bailout vow Questions build immediately to lasting influence of EU's programs EURUSD posts its biggest rally since Greek debt deal in October If it weren't for this past Friday's blockbuster rally, the euro's week would have been essentially wasted. EURUSD mounted its biggest rally since late October in a single move that was triggered by unexpected progress at yet another 'critical' European crisis discussion. Yet, despite the momentum on this swell and the confirmation from government bond yields and risk appetite general trends; There seems a larger call to fade this run than any other rescue/stimulus-driven move from European officials in the past. What's more, this is not just a building call amongst the speculative ranks. It is a warning that has been issued by respectable and often conservative economists and bank research teams. Does such a loud consensus guarantee the euro's reversal and extended collapse?
It is interesting to note that Friday's EURUSD rally (1.8 percent) was the largest since October 27 exactly. For reference, that previous rally was sparked by the Greek debt deal which arguably extinguished an immediate crisis fire; and yet the market still pulled an about-face and tumbled immediate 1500 pips in less than three months. That doesn't mean that the euro is destined for the same fate this go around, but the fundamental comparisons between the current situation and October are remarkable. And, if anything, they are worse now.
Reviewing the spark that ignited the roar of euro confidence this past week, we find there were very extraordinary policy concessions that were after the first day of the Summit... at least it seemed that way at first glance. The official statement from the group itself was convoluted and ambiguous - likely by design. Overlooked were the easily won European Investment Bank €10 billion funding increase and the €120 billion Growth Pact. The French, Italian and Spanish Prime Ministers were focused on the short-term threat of a building financial crisis and the risk it posed with spreading beyond Spain and deeper to the core. Running the negotiations into the early morning hours Friday, the results were a seeming defeat for fiscally-minded German and victory for the high-yield counterparts.
The critical highlights from the event included: Spain finding direct funding for its banking sector using EFSF funds without a seniority issue; agreement that a common, Euro-area banking supervisor would need to be created; clearance for the MSO to fund banks directly. and most ambitiously of all, approval for the MSO to buy government bonds to stabilize sovereign rates. That seems a serious escalation of the crisis fight, until we look at the details. The particulars of the Spanish bailout are still open to debate and funding comes after a Memorandum of Understanding is worked out. The bank overseer is due sometime before the end of the year and there are no details. Before the ESM program can directly fund banks, we need the bank supervisor. Further, with €100 billion already earmarked for Spain, the fund only has €400 billion left. Finally, we have the critical effort to cap sovereign yields that explicitly requires meeting certain conditions (which have not been explained) and it too requires a Memorandum of Understanding.
All the major points of progress in this Summit require additional agreements and are subject to conditionality that conservative Euro area members will certainly set high benchmarks on. A year ago, this would be a reality we priced in through the 'medium term' and name the markets to run through the good will the promises offered before they realized the lack of content. This time around though, we are dealing with a market full of skeptics that are more than aware of the global slowdown and now multi-source of financial instability.
Given the heavy voice of doubt at the economist-level usually reserved, speculators will likely be on edge heading into the new week. Should risk trends falter, the euro will easily cave to pessimism. However, there are a few things we need to keep a close eye on. Wednesday's US liquidity lull for the Independence Day holiday can change the dynamic of trends. More importantly, brings the ECB rate decision Thursday. A rate cut would lower its return potential and a lack of an LTRO program would leave the door open to volatility. A word to government bond purchases will be forefront in bulls' minds. And, then we always have risk appetite distraction in Friday's US NFPs. - JK

:: Swiss Investors Feel Pressure of European Crisis

20 June 2012 09: 39 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: ZEW-Credit Switzerland investor confidence survey reported at - 43.4-> Current economic situation shown as improved-> CHF remains supported
Swiss investor confidence significantly dropped in June, as the ZEW-Credit Switzerland indicator dropped 39.4 points to - 43.4 from the previous month. The confidence survey is at the lowest level since January and shows the second straight month of negative confidence. However, the current economic situation survey improved from 10.0 to 19.7 in June, reaching its highest level since August 2011.
The survey indicates a likely economic slowdown in Switzerland in the second half of the year. The survey is based on surveys with financial market experts about economic developments on a six-month horizon.
Today's release stays in line with previous indicators that show a future economic slowdown despite a recently strong Swiss economy, most likely due to pressures from the Eurozone crisis. Earlier this month, the Swiss purchasing manager's index for manufacturing was reported at its lowest level since 2009, despite a 0.7% expansion in GDP in Q1.
USD/CHF remained relatively unchanged following the survey release. Risk correlated currencies have found support against the US Dollar in today's trading ahead of the Fed's policy decision expected later today.

" Euro falters in the split of the European Union on the Spanish bailout, book eyes 1.5600

11 June 2012 13:35 GMT Talking Points
Euro: Spain Seeks EUR 100B Bailout, ECB Lending To Portugal Hits Record-High British Pound: Continues To Eye Former Support, Sideways Price Action Ahead U.S. Dollar: Pares Decline As Risk Sentiment Falters, Fed Rhetoric On Tap Euro: Spain Seeks EUR 100B Bailout, ECB Lending To Portugal Hits Record-High
The Euro tumbled to 1.2527 amid the uncertainties surrounding Spain’s EUR 100B bailout, and the single currency may continue to give back the advance from earlier this month as the EU calls upon the Troika – the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund – to carry out the rescue package. In contrast, Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy argued that the move to recapitalize its banking sector does not constitute a bailout, and we may see the group attempt to buy more time as European policy makers struggle to meet on common ground.
Meanwhile, a separate report by the Bank of Portugal showed commercial banks borrowed a record EUR 58.7B from the European Central Bank, and it seems as though the Governing Council will continue to carry out its easing cycle in 2012 as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are starting to price in a rate cut for July, but we may see the ECB implement a range of tools to shore up the ailing economy as the heightening risk for contagion continues to drag on investor confidence. As the EURUSD struggles to push back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2640-50, the pair may continue to track sideways ahead of the elections in Greece, and we will maintain a bearish outlook for the single currency as European policy makers maintain a reactionary approach in addressing the debt crisis.
British Pound: Continues To Eye Former Support, Sideways Price Action Ahead
The British Pound advanced to 1.5581 on Monday as the Bank of England talked down the risks surrounding the U.K. banking system, and the ongoing turmoil in the euro-area may continue to increase the appeal of the sterling as the central bank expects to see a more robust recovery later this year. As a result, we may see the sterling take on a safe-haven role as U.K. policy makers take the necessary steps to shield the economy from the debt crisis, but the GBPUSD may track sideways ahead of the BoE Minutes due out on June 20 as it struggles to clear former support around the 1.5600 figure. In turn, we may see the GBPUSD work its way back towards the 50.0% Fib from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the policy statement may instill a bullish outlook for the pound should we see another 8-1 split within the Monetary Policy Committee.
U.S. Dollar: Pares Decline As Risk Sentiment Falters, Fed Rhetoric On Tap
The greenback is regaining its footing during the North American trade, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) bouncing back from a low of 10,137, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. Nevertheless, with the slew of central bank rhetoric on tap for later today, less-dovish comments from Fed officials may further increase the appeal of the USD, and we may see the dollar resume the rally from the previous month as the FOMC moves away from its easing cycle.
Will the EUR/USD Resume the Downward Trend From 2011? Join us in the Forum
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Card Spending - Retail (MoM) (MAY)
Declines for the first time since 2Q 2009.
Manufacturing Activity Volume s.a. (QoQ) (1Q)
BSI Large All Industry (QoQ) (2Q)
Weakens for the third straight quarter.
BSI Large Manufacturing (QoQ) (2Q)
Japan Money Stock M2+CD (YoY) (MAY)
Slowest pace of growth since February 2009.
Japan Money Stock M3 (YoY) (MAY)
Machine Tool Orders (YoY) (MAY P)
Falls for the first time since February.
French Industrial Production (MoM) (APR)
Biggest advance since July 2011.
French Industrial Production (YoY) (APR)
French Manufacturing Production (MoM) (APR)
Weakens for the fourth time in 2012.
French Manufacturing Production (YoY) (APR)
Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (QoQ) (1Q F)
Contracts for the third straight quarter.
Italian Gross Domestic Product s.a. and w.d.a. (YoY) (1Q F)
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11 June 2012 13:35 GMT Jun, 08 13:15 GMT Euro Hit By Speculation For Spanish Bailout, Range-Bound Prices AheadJun, 07 13:30 GMT USD Slides Following China Rate Cut, All Eyes On Bernanke TestimonyJun, 06 14:45 GMT Euro Relief Rally To Foster Range-Bound Prices, Debt Auction In FocusJun, 05 13:50 GMT Euro Looks Lower As Spain Struggles To Tap Markets, ECB In FocusJun, 04 13:35 GMT Euro Propped Up By Hopes For ‘Bank Union,’ All Eyes On ECB

?? European Investor Confidence Falls to 3-Year Low

04 June 2012 09: 02 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Sentix investor confidence hits 3-year low, still better than expected-> European leaders continue to disagree over crisis fighting measures-> Euro sees slight bounce before today's trading
European investors' optimism for the Eurozone has reached a 3-year low according to a Sentix survey. The Sentix investor confidence for June came in at - 28.9, the lowest score since May 2009, but still better than analysts' expectations for a - 30.0 survey result. Back in March of this year, the survey reached a six month high at - 8.2, before the survey results declined for the next four straight months.
The Sentix survey reported a 3.5 point dip in investor confidence for the current situation to - 35.0, and expectations for the future also dropped over 5 points to - 22.5.
Eurozone worries weighed on economic sense as European leaders continued to disagree before the weekend on how to solve the debt crisis. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said that she would not agree to joint debt issuance under any circumstances. US President Barak Obama joined the ECB, Italy, and France in pressuring Merkel to take further steps to control the crisis contagion.
EUR/USD didn't move much following the better than expected investor optimism survey. After the close of a bearish month that saw a 7% decline for the euro against the dollar, the pair started June with a bounce back above 1.2400 from a fresh 2-year low below 1.2300 during Friday's trading.

EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months

Thursday, May 24, 2012 5:41:17 AM TradeTheNews.com EU Market Update: Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
- (DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
- (CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
- (FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
- (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v +5.3% prior
- (FR) France May Business Confidence: 93 v 94e; Production Outlook: -29 v -14 prior; Own-Company Production Outlook: -4 v -4 prior
- (FR) France May Preliminary PMI Manufacturing: 44.4 v 47.0e; PMI Services: 45.2 v 45.7e
- (CZ) Czech May Business Confidence: 6.0 v 7.5 prior; Consumer Confidence: -31.0 v -29.3 prior; Composite: -1.4 v +0.2 prior
- (HU) Hungary Mar Retail Trade Y/Y: +0.9% v -0.8%e
- (ES) Spain Mar Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -41.5% v -49.6% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -42.0 v -47.1% prior
- (DE) Germany May Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 45.0 v 47.0e (fastest rate of contraction since June 2009); PMI Services: 52.2 v 52.0e
- (NL) Netherlands Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.2 v 5.9% prior
- (NL) Netherlands May Producer Confidence: -5.0 v -3.3 prior
- (EU) Euro Zone May Advanced PMI Manufacturing: 45.0 v 46.0e (lowest reading since June 2009); PMI Services: 46.5 v 46.7e; PMI Composite: 45.9 v 46.6e
- (DE) Germany May IFO Business Climate: 106.9 v 109.4e (first MoM decline in 7 months); Current Assessment: 113.3 v 117.1e; Expectations Survey: 100.9 v 102.0e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary GDP (Second reading) Q/Q: -0.3% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.0%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Private Consumption: 0.1% v 0.3%e; Government Spending: 1.6% v 0.0%e; Gross Fixed Capital Formation: -0.3% v -0.5%e; Exports: +0.1% v -0.3%e; Imports: 0.4% v 0.1%e
- (UK) Q1 Preliminary Total Business Investment Q/Q: +3.6% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: 14.2% v 9.2%e
- (UK) Mar Index of Services M/M: 0.5% v 0.3%e; 3M/3M: 0.1% v 0.2%e
- (UK) Apr BBA Loans for House Purchase: 32.4K v 32.0Ke
- (HK) Hong Kong Apr Trade Balance (HKD): -42.9B v -40.8Be; Exports Y/Y: 5.6% v 6.2%e; Imports Y/Y: 5.0% v 4.1%e
- (IC) Iceland May CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 5.4% v 6.4% prior
Fixed Income
- (DK) Denmark sold approx DKK6.0B in I/L 2023 Bonds; Yield -0.14%, bid-to-cover: 1.78x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B v HUF45B indicated in 12-Month Bills; Avg yield 7.58% v 7.38% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.81x v 2.12x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- China May HSBC Flash Manufacturing PMI registers its 7th consecutive contraction
- Major European PMI Manufacturing miss market expectations
- German IFO falls for the first time in 7 months
- UK Q1 GDP second reading revised slightly lower
- Speculation rising of a EU wide deposit guarantee plan to be endorsed by German Chancellor Merkel
- EU growth initiatives will be announced in June, but without abandoning fiscal prudence
***Equities*** >Indices: FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5306, DAX +0.30% at 6301, CAC-40 +0.60% at 3021, IBEX-35 +0.60% at 6481, FTSE MIB +0.75% at 13,057, SMI +0.40% at 5841
- In Europe, equities opened the session broadly higher amid gains in banks. However, markets have since pared gains following the release of weaker than expected EU manufacturing PMI and German IFO data. Additionally, the decline in China's May flash manufacturing PMI has weighed on markets. In terms of upcoming event risks, durable goods and weekly jobless claims data are due out of the US later today. Also, commentary is expected later today from the German Finance Minister Schaeuble, ECB's Prsident Draghi, Fed official Dudley and ECB/Bundesbank official Asmussen.
- In the UK shares of Mothercare [MTC.UK] and Cable & Wireless Communications [CWC.UK] have both traded sharply higher after releasing their respective full year earnings reports. Additionally, Thomas Cook [TCG.UK] has gained more than 5%, after naming a new CEO. SABMiller [SAB.UK] has moved between slight gains and losses, following the release of its full year earnings report. In Spain, Bankia is trading lower by approx. 1%, as Spain's government said the firm will require about ?7.1B to comply with the country's provisioning rules. Austrian bank, Raiffeisen [RIBH.AT] has gained over 1% after reporting higher than expected Q1 earnings. In Germany, sharers of SAP [SAP.DE] and Metro [MEO.DE] have been weighed down by ex-dividend factors. Bayer [BAYN.DE] has lost approx. 1.5%, as a US FDA panel voted against recommending XARELTO as a treatment for acute coronary syndrome.
Speakers: >- German IFO Economists commented that uncertainty in Euro Zone was impacting Germany's economy, but outlook remained above its long-term avg
- ECB's Nowotny: ECB has not used its whole arsenal and reiterated that non-standard ECB measures should not endanger mid-term price stability. The situation in Greece was particularly acute and overcoming imbalances was essential but would take time
- Bank of Japan (BOJ) Monthly Economic Report maintained its overall assessment of the economy that it would return to moderate recovery path
- Japan BOJ Gov Shirakawa commented ion Parliament that distrust in fiscal reform could push up long-term interest rates and weigh upon earnings of financial companies. He reiterated view that BOJ would pursue powerful easing. Risk aversion was the biggest factor in recent FX price movements. He added that there was no clear correlation historically between monetary base and JPY currency movement. The BOJ would strive to beat deflation using current asset buying program
- IMF China representative stated that a Greek exit from EMU would be a big shock to Chinese exports but China has fiscal room to sustain growth in the face of crisis
- BoE official Bailey stated that the UK banking sector's contingency plan for potential Greek exit from euro becoming more detailed
- Finland Fin Min Urpilainen commented that Europe's challenge was to find economic growth. Collateral payment from Greece rose to ?560M
- Ireland Dep PM Gilmore stated that categorically treaty would not be changed and reiterated the view that it wanted Greece to stay inside the EMU. Lastly he added that Ireland did not have contingency plan for a Greek exit.
- Sweden FSA's Cerps stated that the agency was monitoring banking sector to USD funding as Euro crisis deepens
- Poland Dep Fin Min Radziwill commented that the PLN currency was relatively stable with its weakness related to the Euro crisis. Poland currency sales would be similar to 2011 levels. He noted that debt markets were difficult at this time but would return to the market after it stabilizes as the country is in a comfortable situation. Domestic sales were seen covering most remaining needs for 2012
- Hong Kong Chief Executive Leung stated that it would seek stronger economic growth by diversification
- India Finance Ministry Official noted that the Gov't committee to meet on Friday to discuss raising diesel prices
- Philippines Central Bank Assistant Gov Amador commented that it would review CPI forecasts at June policy meeting and saw Inflation at a manageable as lower oil costs dampened pressures. To consider global economy and Euro Zone crisis during policy meeting and added the central bank would moderate sharp volatility in FX rates
- Indonesia Finance Ministry unveiled its mineral export tax regulation
- Iran official stated that there was no basis for new round of UN Counsel (P5+1) discussions
Currencies:
- The Euro initially tried to correct oversold levels but risk aversion sentiment again maintained the upper hand throughout the bulk of the European morning. Following China's lead, the European major PMI Manufacturing data came in softer than expectations and provided further headwinds for the Euro. Citigroup analyst added to sentiment when it issued a note forecasting ECB refi rate being cut to 0.50% and the central bank to resume its 3-year lending LTRO following any Greek exit from EMU. The EUR/USD approached the 1.2500 level for 22-month lows which provided some technical and psychological support. One analyst noted that 1.2530 level was 78.6% retracement of its 2010-2011 move.
-The hour ahead of the NY morning the markets encountered a bit of a reversal as European equity markets moved back into positive territory and peripheral spreads narrowed. The record low yields of safe-haven plays seemed to have ignited some asset reallocation back into equities. The EUR/USD was back around the 1.2560 area as the NY morning approached
- The EUR/CHF cross floor at 1.200 continued to note a 'massive' bid in its defense.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Spanish government was said to be planning to nationalize CatalunyaCaixa and NovaGalicia banks due to the inability to find a buyer. Prior reports from late March suggested that the auction process for the banks would be slowed by Spain's government, as Spain's Deposit Guarantee Fund (DGF) needed to be strengthened. At that time it was estimated that the DGF had about ?2.0B in funds.
- Plans by the government to delay certain privatizations related to the energy industry have weighed on Russia's equity markets. On Wednesday, Russia's benchmark RTS index declined by 4.4%.
- The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard is critical of former Greek caretaker PM Papademos. He argued If Greece were to leave the Euro, then its fate would not have to be as dire as the situation recently described by Papademos. It could restructure its economy in a similar manner to Iceland.
- According to the FT US manufacturers argued against plans by JP Morgan to launch an exchange traded fund backed by copper as it would grossly and artificially inflate prices, and cause wreak havoc on the global economy.
***Looking Ahead*** >- (ZA) South Africa Central Bank (SARB) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave interest rates unchanged at 5.50%
- (AR Argentina May Consumer Confidence:
- 6:00 (IR) Ireland Apr Property Prices M/M: No est v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: No est v -16.2%e
- 6:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 9-month Bills
- 7:15 (UK) BOE member Miles
- 7:30 (DE) German Fin Min Schaeuble
- 7:30 (TR) Turkey May Industrial Confidence: No est v 116 prior; Capacity Utilization: No est v 74.7% prior
- 8:00 (ZA) South Africa Central Bank Gov Marcus Rate Decision press conference
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Apr Unemployment Rate: 6.2%e v 6.2% prior
- 8:00 (RO) Romania to sell RON500M in Bonds
- 8:30 (US) Apr Durable Goods Orders: +0.2%e v -4.0% prior (revised from -4.20%); Durables Ex Transportation: +0.8%e v -0.8% prior (revised from -1.1%); Capital Goods Orders Non-defense Ex-Aircraft: 0.8%e v -0.8% prior; Capital Goods Shipment Non-defense Ex-Aircraft: -1.0%e v +2.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 370Ke v 370K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.250Me v 3.265M prior
- 8:58 (US) May Preliminary Markit PMI:
- 9:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti
- 9:00 (EU) ECB's Draghi, Bank of Italy's Visco speak at Rome Conference
- 9:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel speaks at German Engineering Industry Convention
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium May Business Confidence: -11e v -10.7 prior
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Q1 GDP Y/Y: No est v 11.0% prior
- 9:30 (DE) Germany Econ Min Roesler
- 9:30 (US) Fed's Dudley to speak on Regional Economy in New York
- 9:30 (EU) EFSF CFO Frankel in Rome
- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Apr Current Account: -$4.0Be v -$3.3B prior; Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): $4.9Be v $5.9B prior
- 9:30 (US) Commercial Paper data
- 10:30 (US) EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 11:00 (US) May Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity: 5 v 3 prior
- 12:20 (DE) ECB member Asmussen in Poland
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Apr Industrial Production M/M: No est v 1.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.5%e v 2.1% prior
- 19:30 (JP) Japan Apr National CPI Y/Y: No est v 0.5% prior; Ex-Food Y/Y: No est v -0.5% prior
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European market update: Greece said the European GDP data and the German ERF survey varied session

 Tuesday, May 15, 2012 5:53:18 AM European Market Update: Greece said to make €430M bond payment today; European GDP data and German ZEW Survey were mixed in session***Economic Data***

- (JP) Japan Apr Consumer Confidence: 40.0 v 40.8e
- (SG) Singapore Mar Retail Sales M/M: 1.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 9.1% v 7.2%e; Retail Sales Ex Auto Y/Y: 6.5% v 3.5%e
- (FR) France Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.1% v 2.2%e; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 124.80 v 124.84e
- (FR) France Apr CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary Gross Domestic Product Q/Q: 0.0% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.5%e
- (FI) Finland Mar GDP Indicator: 2.4% v 3.5% prior
- (DE) Germany Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 0.9%e; GDP wda Y/Y: 1.2% v 0.8%e
- (FR) France Q1 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: +0.1 v -0.2%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.9% v 0.7%e
- (AT) Austria Q1 GDP Q/Q: 0.2 v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 1.9 v 0.8% prior >- (CZ) Czech Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.0% v +0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.0% v +0.2%e
- (HU) Hungary Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -0.1%e
- (HU) Hungary Mar Final Industrial Production M/M: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim; Y/Y: 0.6% v 0.6% prelim
- (TR) Turkey Feb Unemployment Rate: 10.4% v 10.2% prior
- (FI) Finland Mar Current Account: -€40M v -€230M prior
- (DK) Denmark Apr Wholesale Prices M/M: 0.2 v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.7% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.1% v -1.1%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Trade Balance: €4.1B v €2.9B prior
- (SE) Sweden Q1 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 2.3% v 2.8%e
- (TR) Turkey Apr Budget Balance (TRY) 1.4B v 1.1B y/y
- (IT) Italy Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.8% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -1.3% v -1.2%e
- (NO) Norway Apr Trade Balance (SEK): 38.4B v 46.4B prior
- (UK) Mar Visible Trade Balance: -£8.6B v -£8.4Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.7B v -£2.9Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£4.1B v -£4.7Be >- (GR) Greece Q1 Advanced GDP Q/Q: %; Y/Y: -6.2% v -7.5% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Q1 Advanced GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v -0.2%e
- (DE) Germany May Zew Economic Sentiment: 10.8 v v 19.0e; Current Situation: 44.1 v 39.0e
- (EU) Euro Zone May ZEW Economic Sentiment: -2.4 v +13.1 prior
- (PT) Portugal Q1 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -0.1%% v -1.0%e; Y/Y: -2.2% v -3.1%e
Fixed Income: >- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.3B v €1.0B in 13-week Bills; avg yield 4.34% v 4.20% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.32x v 2.46x prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK2.5B vs. SEK2.5B indicated in 3.5% 2022 Bonds; avg yield 1.4696%
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2018, 2026 and 2041 bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted €43.0B vs. €39.0Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.0%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF45B in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 7.16% v 7.16% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.02x v 2.40x
- (UK) DMO sold £2.75B in 5% 2025 Gilts; Avg Yield 2.251% v 2.356% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.09x v 1.8x prior; Tail 0.2bps vs. 0.4bps prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total 3.39B vs. €3.0-3.5B in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €1.465B in 3-month Bills; Avg yield 0.201% v 0.179% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.97x v 2.62x prior
- Sold €1.925B in 12-month Bills; Avg yield 0.627% v 0.734%prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.36x v 2.32x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moodys cuts Italian banking sector (as expected)
- RBA minutes: Need to cut rates tp offset higher bank rates; CPI has slowed
- Greece will make bond payment of €430M today
- German, Eurozone & Portugal GDP beats expectations; Italy, emerging Europe do not
- Greek President Papoulias will attempt to persuade leaders to accept a technocratic government to avert another round of elections
- Hollande inaugurated as France's new President
***Equities*** >FTSE 100 +0.10% at 5469, DAX +0.20% at 6462, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3071, IBEX 35 -0.40% at 6783, FTSE MIB -0.30% at 13,622, SMI +0.10% at 5882
- European equity indices opened the session slightly higher, following the losses seen on Monday's session. Additionally, banks opened higher, but are currently trading in negative territory, as peripheral government bond yields have moved higher. The better than expected Q1 GDP data out of Germany has been offset by disappointing growth figures out of Italy and mixed German ZEW data. Additionally, concerns related to Greece's political situation and Spanish banks have continued to linger. In Greece, the Athens Stock Exchange has risen by more than 0.50%, while Greece's 10 yr bond yield has risen by over 10bps on the session amid reports that Greece will make the €430M debt payment, which is due today.
- UK-listed Smiths Group [SMIN.UK], Babcock International [BAB.UK], Afren [AFR.UK] and G4S [GFS.UK] are all trading higher following the release of their respective financial reports. Shares of Germany's largest steel maker, Thyssenkrupp [TKA.DE] have declined by over 2% on the session, as the company reported weaker than expected quarterly revenues. Merck KGAA [MRK.DE] and Air Berlin are also trading lower after their respective Q1 earnings reports. In other German movers, Phoenix Solar [PS4.DE] has gained over 9% following its quarterly earnings release, while Sky Deutschland [SKYD.DE] is higher by over 5% as the company reported better than expected quarterly revenues.
In France, shares of Iliad [ILD.FR] are higher by over 4%, as the company's Q1 sales beat analyst expectations. Additionally, Vivendi [VIV.FR] has gained more than 3% on better than expected Q1 results. Swiss private bank Julius Baer is lower by more than 2%, as the company said its year to date gross margin was below the level seen in 2011. Italian banks opened the session mostly higher, despite the decision by Moody's to downgrade 26 Italian banks. Italian banking name Intesa [ISP.IT] is due to report its quarterly earnings later today.
Speakers: >- Greece will pay holdouts €430M of a Euro bond maturing today
- France President Hollande commented in his acceptance sppech that he vowed to open a new path for Europe and that France had always overcome challenges
- Head of Greek Independent party Kammenos denied having sent document to president's office with proposals for forming a government
- ZEW Economists commented that political uncertainty in Greece and France contributed to the drop in its May Survey and that economic risks had risen in recent weeks. Growth and consolidation did not contradict each other and that austerity must be pursued in some European countries. There was the expectation of small banking crisis during the next 6 months, as sectorally everything was quite well, except for the banking sector. The ZEW noted that the exchange rate expectations was for Euro to weaken as expectation of the Euro Zone crisis would intensify again
- EU's Juncker commented that the topic of a new Eurogroup chief was not on today's agenda. He reiterated that he was confident Spain to reach 2013 deficit target
- France Fin Min Baroin stated that the French banking sector could absorb Greek losses
- UK Chancellor Osborne commented that the Euro Region must stand behind its currency. Uncertainty was undermining Euro Area economies and that strengthening the banking sector was part of the solution
- Spain Fin Min De Guindos commented that Spain asked for ECB role in auditing banking sector. He noted that EFSF aid for banking sector was not discussed
- German CDU official Altmaier stated that it was certain that Germany and France would agree on a common euro crisis approach by the end of June at the latest. He reiterates that expected the fiscal compact to be approved by the German Parliament before the summer recess
- German SPD (opposition) stated that Chancellor Merkel policies were leading Europe into recession and called for investment and fiscal pact
- German SDP's Steinmeier (opposition) doubted that the ESM and fiscal compact would be ratified before summer recess. Party would need to decide whether it backed the fiscal pact depending on what growth measures are added. He expected Chancellor Merkel to accept an EU growth pact
- Slovakia gov't won a confidence vote on its austerity program, as expected
- India Junior Oil Min commented that India to import 15.5M tons of crude oil from Iran in FY13 compared to 17.4M tons y/y
- Norway Govt revised its 2012 budget with the overall surplus revised higher to NOK381B vs. NOK346B seen in Oct . Structural non-oil deficit was raised to to NOK116B vs. NOK112.2B seen in Oct and the non-oil Defciit to GDP to 3.5% vs. 3.9% prior. Norway cut it 2012 non-oil GDP growth to 2.7% from 3.1% prior Oct view and lowered 2012 Core CPI to 1.4% from 1.8% seen in Oct. It noted that the budget was somewhat more expansive compared to October budget
- IMF commented on Sweden and noted that various financial fragilities were apparent in the country that included household debt and a softening housing market
- Sweden Central Bank's Wickman-Parak: Reasonable to assume that the Euro crisis will be solved
- South Africa Central Bank (SARB) approved provision of liquidity facility to help banks meet Basel III requirements
- Singapore Dep PM commented that the Euro Zone debt crisis escalation might have substantially spilled over into global markets and could not rule out a deeper recession in Europe and more market stress as a result
- (IR) Iran envoy: Discussions with IAEA have been constructive
Currencies: -
- The early part of the session exhibited some consolidation of recent moves in markets, including currencies. A stronger German Q1 GDP helped to contain some of the risk aversion coupled with word that Greece would make the €430M bond payment today. However, as other Euro Area members reported their respective GDP highlighted the two-tier growth and some of the earlier euphoria faded. German ZEW investor confidence was weaker than expected and provided another headwind for any prolong Euro rebound. As the NY morning approached the EUR/USD was steady at 1.2845, about 20 pips higher from it Far East open. The market will now focus on key US economic data and EcoFin meeting.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Trades Union Congress (TUC) reported that due to the inability to find full-time work the number of part-time workers more than doubled over the past four years. Approximately 600K men were working part-time in December while looking for full-time positions compared to 293K at the end of 2007. In addition, total in involuntary part-time work hit 1.4M (highest reading since records began in 1992).
***Looking Ahead***
- (PT) Bank of Portugal releases 2011 Annual Report
- (IT) EU's Barroso to meet Italy PM Monti
- 6:00 (EU) EFSF to sell €1.0B in 2.0% 2017 Notes
- (PE) Peru Mar Economic Activity Index Y/Y: No est v 7.2% prior
- (PE) Peru Apr Unemployment: No est v 8.7% prior
- 6:00 (EU) EU Officials Hold Meeting With Ukraine's Foreign Minister
- 6:00 (PT) Portugal Q1 Labour Costs: No est v -1.7% prior
- 7:00 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel
- 7:00 (EU) ECB; to drain €214.0B to offset govt bond purchases
- 7:30 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 7:45 (EU) EU Finance Ministers (Ecofin) press conference
- 8:00 (IC) Iceland Apr Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.1% prior
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Apr CPI M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior; Y/Y: 3.9%e v 3.9% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.3% prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Consumer Price Index NSA: 229.9000e v 229.392; CPI Core Index SA: No est v 228.432 prior >- 8:30 (US) May Empire Manufacturing: 9.50e v 6.56 prior
- 8:30 (US) Apr Advance Retail Sales: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior; Sales Less Autos: 0.2%e v 0.8% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (US) Tsy Sec Geithner
- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Trade Balance: No est v -€152.3M prior
- 9:00 (US) Mar Total Net TIC Flows: $32.5Be v $107.7B prior; Net Long-term TIC Flows: No est v $10.1B prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Apr YTD Budget Level (PLN): No est v -23.0B prior; Budget Performance YTD: No est v 65.6% prior
- 9:00 (EU) ECB Forex data
- 9:30 (US) Fed's Duke
- 10:00 (US) Mar Business Inventories: 0.4%e v 0.6% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 10:00 (US) May NAHB Housing Market Index: 26e v 25 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to sell $8.00-8.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell $30B in 4-Week Bills
- 11:30 (IS) Israel Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 0.8%e v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.1%e v 1.9% prior
- 12:30 (FR) German Chancellor Merkel to meet France President Hollande
- 14:30 (EU) EU's Rehn Speaks at Dinner Event in Brussels
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- (US) Republican Nebraska Primary
- (US) Republican Oregon Primary Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information 

€/$ EURUSD: Trading the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

Trading the News: European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 05/03/2012 11:45 GMT, 7:45 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURUSD
Expected: 1.00%
Previous: 1.00%
DailyFX Forecast: 1.00%
Why Is This Event Important:
Although the European Central Bank is widely expected to keep the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, the fresh batch of comments from President Mario Draghi could drag on the EURUSD should the central bank head show an increased willingness to expand monetary policy further. As the sovereign debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for the euro-area, the policy statement may sound a bit more dovish this time around, and the Governing Council may look to target the benchmark interest rate as the slew of non-standard measures appear to be having a limited impact on the real economy. As the threat for a prolonged recession casts a bearish outlook for the single currency, the rate decision could serve as a catalyst to spark a sharp selloff in the EURUSD, and the bearish formation should continue to take shape as price action approaches the apex of the descending triangle.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index Estimate (YoY) (APR)
Euro-Zone Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (FEB)
The Downside
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)
Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Composite (APR A)
Euro-Zone Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q P)
Despite the weakening outlook for the euro-area, heightening price pressures may encourage the ECB to draw up a more balanced tone for the region, and the central bank may endorse a wait-and-see approach throughout the first-half of the year as it preserve its one and only mandate to ensure price stability. However, the ongoing weakness in the labor market paired with fears of a deep recession may bring about a very dovish policy statement, and the Governing Council may look to carry its easing cycle into the second-half of the year in an effort to encourage a stronger recovery.
Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

 A look at the encompassing structure sees the EURUSD trading within the confines of a broad descending channel formation dating back to the August highs with the single currency rebounding off channel resistance of an embedded channel dating back to the February highs. Key daily resistance stands at the 1.33 figure with a breach above this level challenging the 1.34-figure and the February highs at 1.3485. Daily support rests with the 100-day moving average at 1.3115 and the 1.30-figure.

 The scalp charts shows somewhat of a mixed outlook for the EURUSD. Clear bearish divergence in the relative strength index alluded to the euro’s decline today with the single currency rebounding off the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 27th and May 1st crests at 1.3130 before encountering soft resistance at 1.3165. Subsequent resistance levels are eyed at the 23.6% extension at 1.3190 backed by 1.3210, 1.3240 and 1.3260. A breach above the May 1st high at 1.3280 negates this specific setup with such a scenario eyeing targets above the 1.33-handle. Interim support rests with the 38.2% extension with support targets seen lower at 1.3110, the 50% extension at 1.3085 and 1.3060. The initial objective remains the 1.30 figure which has been met with sharp rebounds over the past three months each time the level has been tested. Should the print prompt a bearish response look to target downside levels with a break below the 1.30-threshold offering further conviction on our directional bias.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Trading the interest rate decision may not be as clear cut as some of our previous trades as ECB President Mario Draghi is scheduled to speak at 12:30 GMT, but the policy statement may pave the way for a long Euro trade should the central bank strike a balanced outlook for the region. Therefore, if Mr. Draghi talks down the risks surrounding the region and highlights the recent pick up in price growth, we will need a green, five-minute candle following the release to generate a buy entry on two-lots of EURUSD. Once these conditions are met, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trader hits its mark in order to protect our profits.
In contrast, the ongoing weakness in the real economy paired with the threat for contagion may ultimately lead to a very dovish ECB, and we may see the central bank head may endorse the easing cycle as the fundamental outlook for the region remains bleak. As a result, if the Governing Council opens the door for additional monetary support, we will implement the same setup for a short euro-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction.
Impact that the European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision has had on EUR during the last meeting
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
April 2012 European Central Bank Interest Rate Decision

 As expected, the European Central Bank struck a cautious outlook for the region after keeping the benchmark interest rate at 1.00%, while central bank President Mario Draghi argued that ‘any exit strategy talk for the time being is premature’ as the region faces a double-dip recession. The dovish tone held by the ECB dragged on the Euro, with the EURUSD falling back towards the 1.3100 figure, but we saw the single currency consolidate during the North America trade to end the day at 1.3140.

European market update: BOE MPC split on asset purchase target as miles and Posen again sought more QE

         Wednesday, March 21, 2012 6:48:19 AM

European Market Update: BOE MPC split on Asset Purchase Target as Miles and Posen again sought more QE

***Economic Data***
- (JP) Japan Feb Convenience Store Sales Y/Y: 4.8% v 1.7% prior
- (PH) Philippines Jan Budget Balance (PHP): -15.9B v -101.5B prior
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves Benchmark Interest Rate unchanged at 3.00%; as expected
- (CH) Swiss Feb M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 6.4% v 7.3% prior
- (AT) Austria Jan Producer Price Index M/M: +0.2 v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.2% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Feb House Price Index M/M: -0.4 v 0.6% prior; Y/Y: -3.4 v -3.3% prior
- (IC) Iceland Central Bank (Sedlabanki) raised the 7-day Lending Rate by 25bps to 5.00%
- (NO) Norway Jan AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.2% v 3.3%e
- (UK) Feb Public Finances (PSNCR): -£7.8B v -£1.0Be; Public Sector Net Borrowing: +£12.9B v +£5.0Be; PSNB ex Interventions: +£15.2B v +£8.0Be
Fixed Income:
- (RU) Russia sold RUB3.0B vs. RUB35.2B in 2019 OFZ Bond; Yield 7.65%
- (EU) ECB allotted $1.8B in 7-Day USD liquidity Tender at fixed 0.65% vs. $2.3B prior
- (SE) Sweden sold SEK2.5B vs. SEK2.5B indicated in 3.5% 2022 Bonds; Yield 2.143%
- (DE) Germany sold €4.108B in 0.25% March 2014 Schatz; Avg Yield 0.31% v 0.25% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.8x v 1.8x prior
- (PT) Portugal Debt Agency (IGCP) sold total €1.99B vs. €1.5-2.0B indicated in 4-Month and 12-Month Bills
- Sold €382M in 4-month Bills; Avg Yield 2.168% v 3.845% prior; Bid-to-cover: 6.7x v 10.3x prior
- Sold €1.61B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 3.652% v 4.943% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.5x v 2.0x prior
- (DE) Germany sold €1.398B in April 2023 I/L bond; Avg Yield 0.15%; Bid-to-cover: 1.6x

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Fed Chairman Bernanke: Comfortable with easing EU strains but must remain vigilant as contagion risk remains
- Treasuries snap longest ever consecutive drop in 10-Year prices. Dealers note that previous episodes have been followed by extended yield compression
- UK BOE minutes more dovish than expected as 2 members sought more QE
- UK Budget speech key event in NY morning; watch for rating agency reaction
***Equities*** FTSE 100 +0.20% at 5901, DAX +0.30% at 7074, CAC-40 +0.40% at 3544, IBEX-35 -0.30% at 8543, FTSE MIB -0.40% at 16,893, SMI +0.30% at 6313
- European shares gained during the session ahead of US home sales data due out in the NY morning. Investors are anticipating a positive surprise especially after building permits published yesterday, surpassed analysts' estimates. Retailers pushed the shares higher following positive earnings report. - Sainsbury [SBRY.UK] rallied after reporting higher revenue and like-for-like sales for the fourth quarter. Inditex [ITX.ES] also rose after reporting figures that were in line with estimates and raising the dividend payout by 12.5%
Speakers: - Bank of England Minutes saw a surprised split in the Asset Purchase Target vote of 7 to 2 (same as the Feb meeting). The MPC majority saw little change in balance of risks to growth and inflation over the past month and was certain that UK growth would pick up in the near term but significant downside risks remain. Oil prices were a clear risk to outlook and might rise further than assumed back in Feb. The majority noted that a substantial risks to medium-term CPI outlook and future declines to CPI were less certain than recent declines. Unemployment might not cap inflation due to unclear productivity outlook and upward drift in wage agreements
- BOE Minority members Miles and Posen again voted to increase APT by £25B (same as in Feb) noting that a larger monetary stimulus was warranted to reduce the risk that persistently weak growth would damage the future supply capacity of the economy
- Greece Dep Fin Min Filippos Sachinidis was formally appointed as the next Finance Minister to replace Venizelos
- Germany might need to increase firewall guarantees to €280B from €211B. The guarantees would be needed to be raised if the EFSF was run at the same time as the ESM. The EFSF has remaining fire power of about €190B, while the ESM would have about €500B
- Germany appeared to have accepted defeat in its efforts to convince other European countries to impose a kind of sales tax on financial transactions (Tobin Tax) in the EU or in the smaller euro zone, possibly putting up an obstacle to ratifying the permanent euro-zone bailout fund in Parliament - Germany Cabinet was said to have approve 2013 budget draft which cut net borrowings by €5.7B
- German RWI Institute raised its 2012 GDP outlook to +1.0% from +0.6 % prior and forecasted 2013 GDP growth at +2.0%
- ECB's Assmussen commented that it was too early to begin exit of special measures at this time but must carefully prepare ECB's exit at this time. He noted that the exact timing depended on market developments. Crisis was not over and was not sure if recent market calm was deceptive; He stressed that govt must use this time to enact reforms. He added that the central bank did not see any sign of Europe-wide asset bubbles but were watching developments closely
- Netherlands Fin Min de Jager sought to ask the EU Commission to look for alternative to the financial transaction tax
- Japan Gov Cabinet Office monthly report maintained its overall economic assessment as economy remained in severe state after last March's earthquake but recovery trend looked more certain. Japan raised its view on consumer spending for the second straight month and also raised the view on capital spending (1st time in 8 months). Japan did caution that rising oil prices were a potential economic risk factor
- Former BoE official William Buiter commented that there was no scope in UK for additional expansionary fiscal policy. He also believed the BoE was overestimating spare capacity in the economy.
- Thailand Central Bank commented that its Interest Rates remained accommodative at 3.00% and still supported economic growth and was appropriate for inflation. The central bank cautioned that inflation risk was on the upside due to oil prices, wages and government economic policies. It reiterated that manufacturing to return to normal conditions in Q3 following the floods from 2011. Thailand raised its 2012 GDP growth outlook to 5.7% from 4.9% as well as inflation views for both headline and core readings in 2012
- Moody's downgraded rating for the City of Detroit to below investment grade
- Gartner raised its forecast for 2012 global semiconductor manufacturing equipment spending to $38.9B, -11.6% y/y (prior forecast was $35.2B)
- China PBoC to allow more agricultural bank branches have a lower RRR
Currencies:
- Approaching quarter-end had dealers question the flow direction but the firm tone in the EUR/USD was attributed to Tuesday's formal approval of the Greek second bailout conditions in its Parliament
- USD/JPY Dealers were pondering the next leg of the JPY currency move but the JPY was softer during the session. Dealers noted that 10-year Treasuries snap its longest ever consecutive drop in prices but dealers noted that previous episodes have been followed by extended yield compression which could hamper upside potential for the time being. However the JPY was softer against the major pairs.
- The GBP/USD stumbled from the 1.59 area following a much more dovish release of the BOE minutes and a sharp deterioration in government borrowing. The pair tested 1.5840 after MPC members Miles and Posen again voted for £25B in QE.
Political/ In the Papers:
- Banks in Europe are trying to design a structure aimed at easing liquidity in the commodities industry, putting together a securitized vehicle which bundles loans to commodity trading firms. Currently, larger commodity trading firms are borrowing at about 100-200bps/Libor. According to bankers, the availability of credit to the commodity industry has declined by as much as 30%.
- According to a survey of economists, a majority expects the UK to maintain its AAA sovereign credit rating, as well as government to meet its deficit targets.
- Credit ratings agency Moody's warned that there is little to no chance Irish banks will have the ability to securitize home loans in the medium-term. The agency also anticipates mortgage arrears level could increase by over 16% by the year end compared to the 11.98% reported at the end of January. Securitization was a significant source of bank funding during the boom years.
***Looking Ahead***
- (GR) EU Commissioner Rehn meets Greece Dep Fin Min
- (DE) Germany to sell €2.0B in April 2023 I/L bonds
- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications w/e Mar 16th: No est v -2.4% prior
- 7:00 (IE) Ireland Feb PPI M/M: No est v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.7% prior
- 7:00 (PL) Poland to sell up to PLN2.5B in Bonds
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell Floating 2023 Bonds
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Republic to sell 3.4% 2015 Bonds
- 8:00 (UK) PM question time in House of Commons
- 8:00 (FI) Finland's Parliament votes on Confidence in Government (5th time)
- 8:20 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel at CDU event
- 8:30 (UK) Chancellor Osborne Budget Speech - 8:30 (UK) OBR releases updated forecasts on UK Economy
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Feb Leading Indicators M/M: 0.6%et v 0.7% prior
- 9:30 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke and Tsy Sec Geithner testify before Congress on Europe Debt Crisis
- 10:00 (EU) EU's Barnier speaks at EU Parliament
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Retail Sales: 4.0%e v 3.5% prior
- 10:00 (US) Feb Existing Home Sales: 4.61Me v 4.57M prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly DOE Energy Inventories
- 10:45 (UK) (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2019-2025 Gilts in reverse auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to Purchase $3.50-4.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank weekly currency flow data
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Trade Balance: $1.3Be v $550M prior
- 17:00 (CO) Colombia Jan Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.0%e v 2.4% prior; Retail Sales Y/Y: 7.0%e v 7.5% prior
- 17:45 (NZ) New Zealand Q4 GDP Q/Q: 0.6%e v 0.8% prior; Y/Y: 2.2%e v 1.9% prior
- 19:50 (JP) Japan Feb Total Merchandise Trade Balance: -¥120.0Be v -¥1.477T prio; Adjusted Merchandise Trade Balanace: -¥342.5be v -¥612.8B prior - 22:30 (CN) China Mar HSBC Flash China Manufacturing: No est v 49.7 prior

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

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http://forex-news-updates24.blogspot.com European market update: one other peaceful European morning; Apple set to decide on their cash-book

Monday, March 19, 2012 6:27:16 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Another Quiet European morning; Apple set to decide on its cash holdings***Economic Data***

- (EU) ECB: €11.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €992M prior; €758.8B parked in deposit facility vs. €727.7B prior
- (IN) India Feb CPI Y/Y: 8.8% v 7.7% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Current Account Balance (ZAR):-110.2B v -132.0Be; Ratio to GDP: -3.6% v -4.2%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Feb Unemployment Rate: 3.4% v 3.3%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Current Account nsa: -€12.3B v €16.3B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: €4.5B v €2.0B prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Orders M/M: -7.4% v -3.2%e; Y/Y: -5.6% v -2.9%e
- (IT) Italy Jan Industrial Sales M/M: -4.9% v 3.2% prior; Y/Y: -4.4% v 5.4% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Construction Output M/M: -0.8% v -1.9% prior; Y/Y: -1.4% v 9.8% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q1 BER Consumer Confidence: 5 v 5 prior
Fixed Income: - (SL) Slovakia Debt Agency (ARDAL) sold €300.6M in 2016 Bonds; Yield 2.8465%; bid-to-cover: 1.78x
- (NO) Norway sold NOK5.0B vs. NOK5.0B indicated in 12-month Bills; avg yield 1.59%
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- IMF warns again "of false sense of security"
- PIMCO's El-Erian sees Portugal to be the next Greece
- Apple [AAPL] to decide on what to do with its cash
***Equities*** FTSE 100 -0.40% at 5943, DAX -0.50% at 7119, CAC-40 -0.60% at 3572, IBEX-35 +0.70% at 8543, FTSE MIB flat at 17,081, SMI -0.30% at 6323
- European shares traded lower during the session, falling from the eight-month high prices sustained last week.
In M&A news, TNT Express [TNTE.NL] rose after UPS reached agreement to buy the company at a higher offer of €9.50/shr from €9.0/shr. Misys [MSY.UK] also rallied after agreeing to be bought by Magic Bidco for a value of £1.27B.
Speakers: - German Bundesbank member Nagel commented that the ECB should start to discuss the potential exit from emergency lending measures
- Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Gov Stevens commented that the global economy faced sub-trend growth in 2012 period and noted that downside risks were easier to see than upside. Slower China growth was required to ease inflationary pressures and that China had the capacity to respond if growth gets too slow. The gov added that there would be periods of continued EU anxiety in the years ahead.
- China Premier Wen reiterated the view that Europe should safeguard foreign debt and push ahead with fiscal consolidation
- China PBoC's Wang Yu commented that China would take measures to further increase domestic demand
- China PBoC Deputy Gov Du Jinfu stated that China needed to further cut its RRR
Japan DPJ Tax Panel Head Fujii: Yen currency could decline given Japan's economic fundamentals
- US Ambassador Locke commented that China should end discrimination against US companies and end its unfair practice of currency distortion
- Poland Central Bank's Kazmierczak stated in the Polish press that a tighter rate policy was likely following release of Feb CPI data.
- Thailand Ministry of Finance (MoF) stated that it might reduce its current fiscal year Govt Bond issuance due to high yields and would watch Wednesday auction before deciding on any changes to its offering. The MOF was considering cheaper alternatives to finance govt spending with Treasury bills could be one alternative to bonds
- South Korea said said to have established communication channels with various Asian countries regarding investments in its treasuries after expressing concerns over potential sudden exit. Countries include Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia
- Fitch comments on commodities and noted that price volatility to continue in 2012 as Euro Zone sovereign debt concerns constrains market confidence. All commodities would not be equally affected as certain commodities groups to see demand lag positive and negative trends in economic growth. Precious metals tend to benefit from a flight to safety
Currencies:
- A quiet European calendar was in store for the session. The EUR/USD hovered around the 1.3150-60 level throughout the morning in lackluster trading.
- Japanese corporate names purchased JPY in the session to offset the weakness exhibited during the Asian session. Such exporter action was noticeable absent during the last week weeks as the JPY currency weakened. JPY strength emerged as the Hang Seng Index slumped in the last hour of trading. Analysts also pointed out that stretched positioning suggested that USD/JPY would struggle to extend its recent gains.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Telegraph's Ambrose Evans-Pritchard looked at the factors affecting petrol prices and its effects on global growth. According to Bank of America, following the recent spike in oil prices, energy costs now make up about 9% of global GDP, near levels in the past which have triggered recessions. The firm believes that oil prices above $130 would pose a significant threat to growth.
- In an interview with the German press, PIMCO's El-Erian said that he sees Portugal to be the next Greece, and that it will require additional cash from Brussels to avoid a bust. This year would indicate whether the euro zone will break apart or become a smaller, stronger region; the first option being "less likely but definitely not to be ruled out".
- The UK Chancellor of the Exchequer expected to offer £40.0B in low rate loans to small businesses in an attempt to boost the economy.
***Looking Ahead***
- (GR) Initial Greek CDS results
- (EU) EFSF said to sell between €1.0-1.5B in 20-year bonds via syndicate
- 7:00 (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) to sell combined €2.0-4.0B in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Central Bank Weekly Economists Survey
-7:30 (CL) Chile Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.0%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.8% prior; 2011 GDP Annualized: 6.3%e v 5.2% prior
-7:30 (CL) Chile Q4 Current Account: -$1.7Be v -$3.0B prior
- 7:45 (UK) Business Sec Cable
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Wholesale Sales M/M: 0.4%e v 0.9% prior
- 8:35 (US) NY Fed's Dudley to speak about economy on Long Island
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Sold Industrial Output M/M: +3.0%e v -5.1% prior; Y/Y: 8.8%e v 9.0% prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.0%e v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: 6.6%e v 8.0% prior
- 9:00 (US) Apple conference call on its cash holdings
- 9:00 (RO) Romania to sell 12-month Bonds
- 9:30 (US) Fed's Killian on foreclosures
-10:00 (US) Mar NAHB Housing Market Index: 30e v 29 prior
- 10:00 (FR) France Debt Agency to sell combined €7.4B in 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills (BTF)
- 10:30 (EU) ECB announces weekly settlements in its Govt Bond Purchase program (SMP)
- 10:30 (EU) ECB calls for bids in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B 2015-2018 Gilts in reverse auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.50-5.25B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 3-Month and 6-Month Bills
- 11:30 (US) NY Fed's Dudley to visit instrument maker on Long Island
- 12:30 (US) Portugal's Fin Min Gaspar speaks in Washington
- 13:00 (AS) ECB's Nowotny speaks in Vienna
- 13:00 (EU) EFSF's Regling, Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden speak in Luxembourg
- 13:40 (US) Fed's Dudley to Partake in Roundtable on Long Island
- 14:30 (AT) ECB's Nowotny speaks in Vienna
- CFTC, Registration of Swap Dealers and Major Swap Participants
- 20:30 (AU) Australia Central Bank (RBA) March Minutes Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing. 

European market update: UK CPI a bit above expectations but remains on a declining trend; IMF reiterates that global situation is not as dire but must remain vigilant

Tuesday, March 20, 2012 6:36:20 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: UK CPI a bit above expectations but remains on a declining trend; IMF reiterates that global situation is not as dire but must remain vigilant***Economic Data***

- (EU) ECB: €11.5B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €11.8B prior; €765.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €758.8B prior
- (DE) Germany Feb Producer Prices M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.2%e
- (FI) Finland Feb Unemployment Rate: 7.7% v 8.0%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Leading Indicator: 132.9 v 132.3 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Feb Export Orders Y/Y: +17.6% v +13.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Jan Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 4.3% v 5.8%e
- (CH) Swiss Q4 Industrial Production Q/Q: +7.9% v +2.6%e; Y/Y: -1.4% v -2.0%e
- (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Confidence: -39 v -35e
- (ES) Spain Jan Bad Loan Ratio at 7.91% v 7.62% prior Dec reading
- (GR) Greece Jan Current Account: -€1.5B v -€2.2B prior
- (IS) Israel Mar Inflation Forecast: 2.6% v 2.4% prior
- (IS) Israel Feb Money Supply Y/Y: +0.7 v -0.8% prior
- (ZA) South Africa Q4 Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 1.6% v 2.5% prior
- (UK) Feb CPI M/M: 0.6% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.3%e (lowest since Nov 2010); Core CPI Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.3%e (lowest since Nov 2009) - (UK) Feb RPI M/M: 0.8% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 3.5%e; RPIX Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.6%e; Retail Price Index: 239.9 v 239.4e
Fixed Income: - (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2018, 2026 and 2031 Bonds
- (ID) Indonesia sold total IDR7.3T vs. IDR6.0T indicated in 5-Year and 20-year bonds
- (DK) Denmark sold total DKK5.4B in 2021 and 2039 Bonds
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €5.05B vs.€4.5-5.5B indicated range in 12-month and 18-month Bills
- Sold €3.6BB in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.418% v 1.899% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.1x v 2.3x prior; Max Yield 1.473% v 1.949% prior
- Sold €1.45B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.711% v 2.308% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.9x v 2.88x prior; Max Yield 1.770% v 2.395% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.3B v €1.0B in 13-week Bills; Avg Yield 4.25% v 4.61% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.69x v 2.70x prior
- (EU) ECB allots €59.5B vs. €42.2B prior in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.0%
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B vs. HUF50B indicated in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 7.26% v 7.25% prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- BHP exec: China iron ore growth is flattening out
- RBA: Appropriate for interest rates to stay at current levels
- UK CPI a bit above expectations but YoY at lowest level since Nov 2010
***Equities***
FTSE 100 -0.90% at 5906, DAX -1.2% at 7070, CAC-40 -1.1% at 3537, IBEX-35 -0.40% at 8555, FTSE MIB -0.80% at 16,999, SMI -0.50% at 6300
- European shares were still trading in negative territory ahead of US housing starts due out in NY morning. Automakers were pressuring the market as China's association of automakers expect vehicle delivers to grow only 5% from 8% prior.
Metro [MEO.DE] reported EBIT and Revenues in line with analysts' expectations and forecast a flat profitability but higher sales. Company also noted that macroeconomic conditions have worsened noticeably compared to 2010.
Speakers: - IMF Chief Lagarde commented that the global situation was not as dire as it was three months ago but vulnerabilities still needed to be addressed. Financial reforms were necessary to avoid growth threat. On rebalancing theme she noted that China's shift to consumption can be gradual while encouraging FDI should be key priority for India
- ECB member Nowotny commented in an online chat that he saw a multi-speed Europe to 2014 period. He added that one must carefully observe the fx loan development in Hungary
And reiterated that Portugal was not the same as Greece and is in better shape
- Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) amended its forecasts for the second time this month citing the current economic climate to continue into H2. The ECB LTRO operation had not solved the underlying issue of the weak European financial sector. Dutch economy would perform moderately in 2012-15 period due to high unemployment, low consumption and declining housing prices. Downside risks include, budget cuts, worsening of the EU debt crisis and bank deleveraging. It cautioned that the size of the Dutch economy would not exceed Q1 2008 level until the 2014 period
- India Central Bank Dep Gov Gokarn commented that internationalization of INR currency was not a strategic goal and the RBI was not actively planning strategic currency diversification. The RBI favored a gradual opening of the capital account. A sharp decline in commodity prices might create room for both fiscal and monetary policy but it was too early to decide on policy based upon the new CPI indicator. Oil price was one of many factors in determining RBI inflation policy
- China PBoC researcher Ji Min stated that China should purchase additional EFSF bonds. He noted that such bonds have stable returns and purchasing the debt could improve trade ties with Europe.. Lastly he noted that European banks were trading at attractive valuations
- Former PBoC Advisor Xia Bin commented that China should maintain its prudent monetary policy stance and not loosen its monetary policy even if the economy slowed. He expected GDP to avg 7% for next 5-years and believed that a China hard landing was impossible. Lastly he expected the CNY currency (yuan) to become fully convertible by 2020
- China Central Bank (PBoC) Q2 survey found less dissatisfaction with price levels. Approx 63% of households thought consumer products were too high vs. 69% prior Q1 survey. The survey also showed that 14.1% of respondents wished to buy an apartment over the next three months, the lowest level since 1999
- Czech Central Bank Hampl commented that the central bank should keep its loose monetary conditions as inflation was not a reason to hike rates. He stressed that the Czech economy lacked the characteristics of demand-pull inflation
- IATA cut its 2012 airline net profit guidance view to to $3.0B from $3.5B prior citing the oil price rise since December.
Currencies:
- Europe's initial focus was on China. First after BHP exec China iron ore growth was flattening out. Then dealer chatter surfaced of 'unrest and demonstrations' in Beijing coupled into that various blogs noted of 'unusual troop movements' and numerous army vehicles around Beijing. The situation was explained that the extra police activity was due an expected visit from a high level dignitary from North Korea. Nonetheless the USD opened the European session on a firmer footing
- The JPY maintained a soft tone in the session. The EUR/JPY cross trade above 110.70; highest level since the Oct 31st BOJ solo FX intervention
- The GBP saw an initial bounce after its CPI data a bit above expectations but the YoY reading were at their lowest level since Nov 2010. The EUR/GBP cross moved lower to test 0.8320 area. GBP/USD was relatively steady at 1.5855 area.
Political/ In the Papers:
- Former ECB's Bini-Smaghi warned Ireland against changing the terms of the Anglo bailout. The Irish press reported that Bini-Smaghi thought that Ireland would be 'shooting itself in the foot' if it changed the terms of the bailout in a way that is not 'consistent' with the rescue program.
- The Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) amended its recent deficit-to-GDP forecasts, notably lowering the 2012 deficit-to-GDP figure to 4.6% from the prior 4.5%. It sees the current economic climate to continue into the second half, with the economy to perform moderately in 2012-15 period due to high unemployment, low consumption and declining housing prices
- Ahead of the UK budget announcement, the FT reported that economists expect the OBR to slightly raise its 2012 forecast for growth of 0.7% to approx 0.8%, and will not predict a technical recession of two consecutive quarters of negative growth. Treasury officials indicated some relief that the forecasts are drifting in line with private sector forecasts, and thus expect no surprises in the data which will negatively affect the bond markets.
- Accountants warned the Chancellor of the Exchequer Osborne that plans to cut the 50p tax could cost the treasury billions, as top earners may delay income until the rate is reduced. They also suggest that instead of deferring the measure, the Chancellor should immediately reduce the top rate to 45p or risk losing tax revenues, incurring higher borrowing costs and compounding the 50p tax fiasco.
***Looking Ahead***
- (GR) Greek €14.4B in bond redemption
- (IS) Israel Feb Leading 'S' Indicator M/M: No est v 0.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Trade Balance: No est v -€4.6B prior
- 7:00 (UK) Mar CBI Industrial Trends Total Orders: -5e v -3 prior; Trends Selling Prices: 13e v 10 prior
- 7:00 (EU) EFSF to sell €2.0B in 6-month bills
- 7:30 (US) ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (EU) ECB to drain €218.0B in 7-Day Term Deposits to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP)
- 8:30 (US) Feb Housing Starts: 700Ke v 699K prior; Building Permits: 686Ke v 682K prior (revised from 676K)
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (PL) Note: Poland Jan. and Feb. Core CPI will be released on the same day
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Core Inflation M/M: No est v % prior; Y/Y: No est v % prior; Core Inflation Y/Y: 2.7%e v % prior
- 9:15 (EU) EU's Barroso with Swiss Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf
- 10:00 (EU) China's Ambassador to EU speaks at Brussels Think Tank
- 10:00 (US) US Tsy Sec Geithner
- 10:00 (EU) ECB member Praet
- 10:00 (EU) ECB member Weldmann
- 10:00 (BE) Belgium Mar Consumer Confidence: No est v -20 prior
- 10:00 (EU) ECB Forex Reserves w/e Mar 16th: No est v €249.7B prior
- 10:30 (IT) Italy PM Monti meets for labor talks
- 10:45 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy with Swiss Fin Min Widmer-Schlumpf
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2027-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $1.75-2.25B in Notes
- 11:00 (EU) EU's Ashton
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico weekly international reserves
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar in Washington DC
- 12:45 (US) Fed' Chairman Bernanke gives lecture at George Washington University
- 14:00 (UK) BOE member Dale
- 16:00 (CA) Quebec Fin Min Bachand gives 2012-12 budget
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- 17:30 (US) Fed's Kocherlakota speaks in St. Louis, Missouri
- (US) Republican Illinois Primary
- (UK) Queen Elizabeth Addresses Parliament for Diamond Jubilee
- (EU) EBA, Consultation on Supervisory Reporting Standards Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing. 

European Market Update: Quiet European morning

Friday, March 16, 2012 6:43:26 AM

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Quiet European morning

***Economic Data***
- (RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply (RUB): 6.86T v 6.77T prior
(ES) Spain Q4 Labour Costs Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.5% prior
- (TR) Turkey Feb Consumer Confidence: 93.2 v 92.2 prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Total Trade Balance: -€4.4B v +€1.2B prior; Trade Balance EU: +€756M v -€873M prior
- (PL) Mar Central/Eastern European ZEW Indicator: No est v -19.5 prior
- (IT) Italy Jan Current Account: No est v €402M prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Jan Trade Balance seasonally adj: €5.9B v €6.0Be; Euro-Zone Trade Balance: -€7.6B v -€3.0Be

Fixed Income: - (ZA) South Africa sells total ZAR800M in I/L 2017, 2022 and 2028 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- China Vice Commerce Min Chen Jian: Yuan has appreciated "too much" recently
- UK govt said to be planning to cut income taxes for the country's top earners from 50% to 40%
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: There is no quick fix for higher gasoline prices; Reflects uncertain times in the world
- German Chancellor said to proposes Schaueble to head Eurogroup
***Equities*** FTSE 100 +0.40% at 5964, DAX +0.10% at 7150, CAC-40 +0.10% at 3581, FTSE MIB +0.20% at 17,026, IBEX-35 -0.10% at 8416, SMI +0.10% at 6336
- European shares remained in positive territory during the session as economic data continue to be positive. However, auto names were trading lower after Bernstein downgraded the sector.
- Among individual names, Tullow Oil [TLW.UK] rose after announcing that Deepwater Tano licence offshore Ghana, has successfully encountered oil. Air Berlin [AB1.DE] fell after reporting a wider than expected loss due to extraordinary charges as a result of German aviation tax and the increase in fuel prices.
Speakers: - EFSF chief Regling confirmed upcoming EFSF fixed income sales of Bills and bonds
- ECB's Asmussen commented that the first reactions to LTRO were positive and that data suggested that the region has averted a crunch crunch
- ECB's Liikanen commented that the risks to ECB balance sheet were being managed and reiterated that the council did not discuss any interest rate move at its last policy meeting. He stressed that the target2 balance did not act as stand-alone risks. Euro area was still in a crisis that was both long and deep but ECB and governments must separate their responsibilities. The ECB noted that all crisis measures were temporary and govt should use the time now to enact reforms
- Ireland Fin Min Noonan commented that the country's domestic economy could be poised for stronger growth with potential to hit between 4-6% GDP in 2013
- German Fin Min Schaueble said to have cut net new borrowing issuance plans for coming years. Germany now expect net new borrowing of €16B in 2014, of €12B in 2015, and around €4.0B in 2016
- German Fin Min Schaueble declines to comment on speculation that he would replace Juncker as Eurogroup head but added Juncker replacement should be a Euro Zone finance minister
- Russia Central Bank Ulyukayev: Inflation probably bottomed out at 3.7% and sees risk of higher inflation in H2. He added that he did not rule out that RUB currency could appreciate in H2
- India Fin Min Mukherhee presented the FY13 budget speech which began with the notion that the debt crisis in Europe had intensified and affected India. India had to confront near double-digit inflation among an economic slowdown. The minister reiterated that FY12 GDP seen at 6.9% (same as Feb 7th revision) with a current Account deficit at 3.6%. The FY13 forecasted GDP growth at 7.6% and perhaps as high as 7.85% with C/A deficit lower on a year-on-year basis.
- India formally released its FY13 budget which forecasted gross government borrowing at INR5.69T vs. INR5.4Te. Net borrowings were seen at INR4.79T which was also above INR4.5T market expectations. The FY13 budget deficit to GDP was seen at 5.1% vs. 5.9% prior fiscal year with gross tax receipts projected at INR10.8T and non-tax receipts at INR1.65T, The FY13 expenditures were seen at INR14.9T.
- India PM Singh commented after the budget speech that the aim was to reduce fiscal deficit to help tame inflation as a lower fiscal deficit would help reduce crowding out effect of private investment. The challenge for India was to quickening its economic growth pace while cooling inflation
- S&P commented on India's budget and stated that fiscal deficit continued to be too high
And a constraining factor on its sovereign ratings.
- Bank of Spain stated that the country's public debt at end-2011 was at €735.0B while the autonomous region debt at €140.1B. Public debt at end 2011 at 68.5% of GDP (hihest since 1995)
- Turkey Central Bank Gov Basci commented that it was focusing on achieving 2012 CPI target of 5% and GDP growth of 4%, He applauded the central bank's interest rate corridor as a precious policy which helped to recue volatility in TRY currency (Lira)
- Cyprus Fin Min Kazamias said to have resigned due to health concerns; president expected to reshuffle cabinet
- IEA Chief Economist Birol commented that the agency had not receive requests to release emergency oil but was carefully monitoring oil market and prices. He noted that Europe oil, gas import bill was just as serious as the Greek sovereign debt issue. The IEA placed Europe's 2012 oil and gas import bill close to $500B with Turkey's share at $68B
- Poland Central Bank Gov Belka commented that there was no danger of 2012 GDP being below 3%
- New PBoC Advisor: Not realistic to expect large CNY currency appreciation in the near term
Currencies:
- FX markets were quiet during the European morning with little key data releases. The USD consolidated within its recent ranges seen over the last few days. EUR/USD holding below the 1.31 handle while USD/JPY tried to re-approach the 84 handle.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The Bank of Spain reported Spanish public debt at the end of 2011 was at €735.0B, with the debt of the autonomous regions at €140.1B. The public debt at 68.5% of GDP at end of 2011 (Q4) is the highest reading since at least 1995.
- Greek press noted that Greek banks were seeking to delay their FY11 earnings releases.
- The Finance Minister of Cyprus Kazamias was said to have resigned due to health concerns. The president of the country is expected to reshuffle cabinet and announce the changes on Monday, the 19th of March.
- Germany's Chancellor Merkel stated her preference for the Finance Minister Schaeuble for the Eurogroup Chairman role. Chairman Jean-Claude Juncker's term is due to end in June.
- The Irish Times reported that Irish house prices continued to decline. According to research conducted by Davy Stockbrokers, house prices in Ireland indicate no signs of stabilization, and that prices may decline by as much as 70% from peak levels. Reasons for the decline include tight credit conditions, and overall market declines. Additionally, prices have declined by approx 55% from the peak in 2007 against the official figure of 48% released by the Central Statistics Office (CSO).
- The Russia Economic Development Ministry called for a payroll tax cut from 30% to 26%. Last year Russia raised the tax from 26% to 34%.
- The British government, ahead of its budget release next week, is expected to cut income taxes for the country's top earners from 50% to 40%.
***Looking Ahead***
- (US) India weekly Forex Reserves
- 7:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Trade Balance: No est v €3.5B prior
- 7:10 (UK) DMO sells £5.0B in 1-month, 3-month and 6-month Bills
- 7:30 (DE) German Chancellor Merkel holds News Conference With German Industry Associations
- 8:00 (RU) Russia Feb Industrial Production Y/Y: 4.3%e v 3.8% prior
- 8:00 (RU) Russia Feb Producer Prices M/M: +1.0%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 8.0%e v 8.4% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Int'l Securities Transactions: C$9.0Be v C$7.38B prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan Manufacturing Sales M/M: 0.2%e v 0.6% prior
- 8:30 (US) Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4%e v 0.2% prior; CPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.2%e v 0.2% prior; CPI NSA: 227.954e v 226.665 prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Employment M/M: 0.0%e v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: 0.6%e v 0.9% prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb Avg Gross Wages M/M: -1.9%e v -8.7% prior; Y/Y: 5.3%e v 8.1% prior
- 9:15 (US) Feb Industrial Production: 0.4%e v 0.0% prior; Capacity Utilization: 78.8%e v 78.5% prior
- 9:55 (US) Mar Preliminary University of Michigan Confidence: 76.0e v 75.3 prior
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to keep the Overnight Rate unchanged at 4.50%
- 11:00 (US) Fed to sell $8-8.75B in Notes
- 12:00 (PT) Portugal Fin Min Gaspar speaks in Washington DC
- 13;00 (IT) Italy Industrial Min Passera
- 15:00 (US) Fed Evans
Sat 21:30 (CN) China February Property Prices

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All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

European Market Update: Stronger German ZEW fails to inspire European markets; ECB overnight borrowings soar to over 15B

European Market Update: Stronger German ZEW fails to inspire European markets; ECB overnight borrowings soar to over €15B***Economic Data*** - (RU) Russia Central Bank (CBR) left its key rates unchanged (as expected) with Refinancing Rate at 8.00% level; Overnight Deposit Rate at 4.00% and the Overnight Auction-Based Repo at 5.25% - (EU) ECB: €15.6B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €632M prior; €795.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €798.0B prior

- (FR) France Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e v 2.3% prior; CPI Ex Tobacco Index: 123.58 v 123.66e
- (FR) France Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%e
- (FI) Finland Jan Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: No est v 4.5% prior
- (FR) France Jan Current Account: -4.2B v -€2.8B prior
- (CZ) Czech Jan Industrial Output Y/Y: 3.2% v 3.0%e; Construction Output Y/Y: -5.3% v +14.5% prior
- (HU) Hungary Feb Consumer Prices M/M:0.8% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 5.9% v 5.6%e
- (ES) Spain Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.0%e
- (ES) Spain Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.9%e
- (ES) Spain Feb CPI Core M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.1%e
- (CH) Swiss Feb Producer & Import Prices M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: -2.4%e v -2.4% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Q4 Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.2% v +0.2% prior; Producer Price Y/Y: 6.5% v 9.5% prior
- (NL) Netherlands Jan Trade Balance: €4.1B v €4.1B prior
- (SE) Sweden Feb CPI Headline Rate M/M: 0.7% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.9% v 1.8%e; CPI Level: v 313.67e
- (SE) Sweden Feb CPI Underlying (CPIF) M/M: 0.7% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 1.1% v 1.0%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Current Account (CZK): 14.2B v 10.2Be
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.3% v 3.3%e
- (IT) Italy Feb Final CPIEU Harmonized M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.4% v 3.4%e
- (RU) Russia Jan Trade Balance: $20.5B v $20.6Be
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Gold Production Y/Y: -11.3% v -8.2% prior; Mining Production Y/Y: -2.5%% v +0.9% prior
- (UK) Jan DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: 0.2% v 0.1% prior
- (UK) Jan Visible Trade Balance: -£7.5B v -£7.9Be; Total Trade Balance: -£1.8B v -£1.9Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.7B v -£4.3Be
- (DE) German Bundesbank publishes 2011 Annual Report: Net profit €600M v €2.2B y/y
- (DE) Germany Mar ZEW Economic. Sentiment: 22.3 v 10.0e; Current Situation: 41.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Mar ZEW Economic Sentiment: +11.0 v -8.1 prior
Fixed Income: - (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €2.825B €2.5-3.5B indicated in April 0.75% 2015 DSL Bonds; Avg Yield 0.618% v 0.853% prior
- (ZA) South Africa sold ZAR2.1B in 2017, 2021 and 2036 bonds
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold total €12.0B v €12.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €8,5B vs €8.5Be in 3-Month Bills; Avg Yield 0.439% v 1.735% prior; Bid-to-cover.2.23x v 3.05x prior
- Sold €3.5B vs. €3.5e in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 2.392% v 2.230% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.38x v 1.09x prior
- (EU) ECB allotted €42.2B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.00% vs. €17.5B prior
- (EU) ECB allotted € in 1-Month Refinancing Tender at fixed 1.0% vs. €14.3B prior
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF55B vs. HUF50B Target in 3-Month Bills; avg Yield 7.25% v % prior; Bid-to-cover: x v x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €3.26B vs. €3.2B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €1.625B vs. €1.6Be in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.188% v 0.211% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.64x v 2.34x prior
- Sold €1.63B vs. €1.6Be in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.586% v 0.892% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.58x v 2.64x
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- BOJ hold interest rates steady, as expected
- Final approval of Greek Bailout likely Wednesday; third rescue 'unlikely'
- Spain agrees to an additional 0.5% in cuts to bring deficit target down to 5.3% in 2012
- EU and Japan to Join US in making Rare Earth case against China
before WTO
- Criteria for US banking sector stress tests released: To include unemployment rate as high as 13%, equity price decline of 50%, and housing price decline of 21%
- ECB overnight borrowing climbs to €15B
- Swiss Producer & import data shows the country is winning the fight against deflation
- German ZEW survey continues to outperform
Equities: FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5941, DAX +1.1% at 6973, CAC-40 +1.1% at 3528, IBEX-35 +1.2% at 8279, FTSE MIB +1.4% at 16,689, SMI +0.70% at 6234
- European shares rose ahead of Fed's policy meeting and after strong US retail sales data. German ZEW also came much stronger than expected, the highest since June 2010. The positive data from two of the world's growth engine has aided risk appetite.
- Among notable news, Antofagasta [ANTO.UK] fell after net income missed expectations while EBITDA and Revenue came in line. Dividend also decreased and that had included a special dividend paid in 2010.
Speakers:
- EU's Juncker commented ahead of the secod day of Eurogroup meeting that it was best if a sitting central bank governor succeeded Gonzalez-Paramo on the Board. He noted that EMU growth outlook was not the best but markets now knew EMU was committed to stability. Juncker ruled out private sector involvement for Portugal and reiterated that the country remained on track for the next few years. He also noted that Italy was performing well and had no concerns
- EU/IMF analysis update noted that the prospects of Greece returning to the markets at program end was uncertain. It noted that privatization efforts to bring €45B in 2012-20 (€12B in 2012-14. The economy of Greece to stabilize in 2013 and indicated mild cyclical recovery for 2014-17 period. It stressed that Greece must maintain good policies through 2030 to reduce debt to below 100% of GDP. The cost of the financial system support estimated at €50B.
- BOJ Gov Shirakawa commented in his post rate decision press conference that the central bank to back its strong easing policy and would continue to do utmost to beat deflation. He noted that it must watch crude oil's price impact on domestic economy. The Feb easing was one factor behind the JPY currency weakness and added that the easing in European tension and signs of improvement in US were factors for the JPY price action.. Whether Japan was heading for desirable price growth is key to its policy decision. Decided to expand loans for growth as part of package to defeat deflation but was concern weakening over BOJ's loans were inviting fierce competition among banks
- European Finance Ministers and officials comment ahead of the second day of meetings.
- EU's Barroso commented to EU Parliament that the situation remained fragile in Europe and that a reinforced firewall was an indispensable part of strategy
- EU President Van Rompuy addressd the European Parliament and reiterated that EU was at a turning point
- Spain Fin Min de Guindos commented that Spain would comply with the additional budget deficit reduction for 2012
- Sweden Fin Min Borg stated that must not see any reduction in Spain's credibility. Financial transaction tax would increase costs for companies and govts
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden stated that increasing size of regional firewall was not urgent although some EU countries would have problems for years to come. He also noted that the transaction tax could divert business away from Europe
- Austria Fin Min Fekter: Would be better to give Hungary time to adjust
- German Fin Min Schaeuble noted that the meeting would sees an orientation debate on Financial Transaction tax (Tobin Tax) and saw no reason to exempt financial trades from tax. The minister added that he knows that such a tax can only be achieved on a European level and not globally and should consider alternatives if cannot get a tobin tax on a European level. The tax should be discussed at the Ecofin meeting at the end of March but the debate should not drag on
He commented that Greece's debt to GDP outlook was better than foreseen
- ZEW Economist Franz commented that the German economy was in remarkably good shape and was less concerned about the debt crisis at this time. Domestic demand to keep boosting German growth but risks would continue due to the low European activity elsewhere. Strong German industrial production triggers index improvement. The ZEW saw the case for higher interest rates due to rising CPI but the fragile economic situation did not permit an increase
- China Foreign Min official Lui commented that China's rare earth policy complied with WTO rules and that charges of it monopolizing rare earths were 'groundless'. He noted that China exploitation of rare earth was not sustainable but would continue to export
- Bundesbank President Weidmann commented that Target 2 claims were not a standalone risk because EU breakup was absurd
- Luxembourg Fin Min Frieden stated that he saw problem for Spain's 2013 deficit to GDP to be below 3% and added that the country needed to look into making additional budget cuts
- Japan METI energy official was said to later meet OPEC ministers in Kuwait this week on energy needs and that it viewed Saudi Arabia as a very important in replacing Iranian crude
- Moody's cut Cyprus sovereign ratings to 'Ba1' from 'Baa3'
Currencies:
- The EUR/USD maintained a steady repor in the early European session aide by reports of sovereign demand coupled with the euro zone finance ministers approval of the payout of Greece's second bailout. However high daily ECB borrowings raised a red flag on the fragility of the recovery in Europe. The better German ZEW survey failed to provide support but the EUR/USD continued to maintain its recent trading range for March with 1.3070 seen as support.
- The BOJ press conference provided an opportunity for the JPY currency to weaken across the board after Gov Shirakawa opening comment that the central bank wouldl continue with strong easing program. The USD/JPY recovered from a test of 82.00 to reach above 82.75 during the session.
- The higher Swiss inflation data pleased analysts but had little initial effect on the CHF currency pairs.
Political/ In the Papers:
- The President of the German Bundesbank Weidmann reiterated that central banks cannot solve the current crisis, and that emergency measures should be limited and temporary. Monetary policy should not focus on providing life support to weak banks.
- According to Dealogic, the year to date corporate bond issuances hit a record figure of $386 billion. Similarly, the Barclays Index showed the average spreads on investment-grade bonds narrowed to 184bps from 234bps at the end of 2011. The March average yields declined to 3.27% (the lowest reading since records began in 1973). Also junk bond yields declined to 7.19% from 8.36% at the end of 2011.
- In rating actions, Moody's cuts the sovereign ratings of Cyprus to junk status at 'Ba1' from 'Baa3', with a negative outlook, due to heightened concerns that the banking sector will require state support over its heavy exposure to Greece.
***Looking Ahead***
- (US) Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projection update
- 7:00 (IE) Ireland Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v 2.5% prior; Y/Y: No est v -4.7% prior
- 7:00 (TU) Turkey to sell New Fixed Rate 2017 Bonds
- 7:00 (IC) Iceland to sell Bills
- 7:30 (EU) ECB's Draghi speaks in Paris
- 7:30 (US) Feb NFIB Small Business Optimism: 94.5e v 93.9 prior
- 7:45 (US) ICSC weekly chain store sales
- 8:00 (EU) ECB to drain €218.0B in7-Day Term Deposit Tender to offset Govt Bond Purchases (SMP)
- 8:00 (IC) Iceland Feb Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.2% prior
- 8:00 (SO) Slovenia Debt Agency (ARDAL) to sell 3-month, 6-month and 12-month Bills
- 8:30 (US) Feb Advance Retail Sales: 1.1%e v 0.4% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.7%e v 0.7% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.5%e v 0.6% prior
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Feb CPI M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.2%e v 4.1% prior
- 9:00 (PL) Poland Jan Current Account: -€1.0Be v -€1.3B prior; Trade Balance: -€380Me v -€1.1B prior
- 9:00 (DE) ECB's Weidmann speaks after Bundesbank publishes annual report
- 9:30 (EU) EU President Van Rompuy
- 10:00 (EU) ECB weekly Forex Reserves
- 10:00 (US) Mar IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 50.0e v 49.4 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan JOLTs Job Openings: No est v 3.376M prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan Business Inventories: 0.5%e v 0.4% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Industrial Production M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.8% prior
- 10:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2027-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 11:00 (BR) Brazil to sell 2016, 2018, 2022, 2030, 2040 and 2050 I/L bonds
- 11:00 (MX) Mexico weekly International Reserves
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (IT) Italy PM Monti meets German Chancellor Merkel in Rome
- 12:00 (IC) Iceland Feb International Reserves (DKK): No est v 1.1B prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 10-Year Notes Reopening
- 14:15 (US) FOMC Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rates unchanged at 0.25%
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Consumer Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 9.7% prior
- 15:00 (AR) Argentina Feb Wholesale Price Index M/M: No est v 0.9% prior; Y/Y: No est v 12.5% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- (US) Republican Alabama Primary
- (US) Republican Hawaii Caucus
- (US) Republican Mississippi Primary
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.