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Showing posts with label Inches. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Inches. Show all posts

Thursday, June 14, 2012

::: EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical Weekend

-Americans See Biggest Home Equity Jump in 60 Years - Bloomberg
-BofA Beating JPMorgan as BNP Leads French Lenders Retreat - Bloomberg
-Merkel Talks Tough as Spain Debt Costs Soar - Reuters
-Greece's Rural Voters 'on a Tightrope' - WSJ
-Spanish Crisis Deepens - WSJ
Asian/European Session Summary
Ranges were tight in the overnight with most of the majors (save the New Zealand Dollar, which was too by seemingly hawkish commentary from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand) trading in less than half of a percent range against the US Dollar. The US Dollar's high was set early in the session, considering that the rating agencies Egan-Jones and Moody's Investor Services downgraded Spain near the end of each after the US session close yesterday, putting downside pressure on high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets in early Asia today.
Heading into the European session, with the Australian Dollar and the Euro leading the slide, the US Dollar posted a solid comeback following an exceptionally disappointing Italian bond auction. Italy sold €3 billion in 2015 bonds, with yields soaring to 5.30 percent from 3.91 percent a month ago. €627 million in 2019 bonds, with yields up from 5.21 percent to 6.10 percent; and €873 million in 202 bonds, with yields soaring from 5.33 percent to 6.13 percent. Indeed, these bond yields are approaching unsustainable levels, and this has to be of concern to European policymakers; the market is slowly moving on to Italy (though given recent correlations to sovereign credit default swaps, it appears the EURUSD has been tracking the situation in Greece and Spain more so than the one in Italy over the past week).
And while high beta currencies and risk-correlated assets fell back after the Italian bond auction, it is worth noting that some weak US data spurred more speculation for a third round of quantitative easing ahead of the US cash equity open today. But that wasn't the big news; the commentary from Jens Weidmann, head of the Bundesbank (Germany's central bank) and a voting member on the European Central Bank's Governing Council, is the key commentary on the day.
Taking the wind out of hopes for tax union, the head of the Bundesbank said that such a move would require significant "changes to European Union treaties", and that a fiscal union still wouldn't can't solve the issues of "high unemployment" and "poor competitiveness." Furthermore, in a hint about his stance on an ECB rate cut but looser monetary policy, Mr. Weidmann said that its still "too soon to speculate" about the ECB offering another longer-term refinancing operation (LTRO) and that higher inflation rates in the Euro-zone (which would come after an ECB rate cut, in theory) and that it would diminish the central bank's credibility.
Taking a look at credit, Spanish 10-year notes remain significantly weaker, with the yield rising by 14 7-basis points to 6.835 percent. After the auction, the Italian 10 - year note yield has fallen to 6.118 percent.
5 - Min Chart EURUSD: June 14, 2012

EURUSD_Inches_Towards_1.26_Ahead_of_Critical_Weekend_body_EURUSD.jpg, EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical WeekendCharts Created using Marketscope - Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer (again), with the NZDUSD appreciating by 1.02 percent. The Canadian Dollar is also stronger, up by 0.55 percent against the US Dollar. The Euro has rebounded off of its session lows and has exploded back to the 1.25 exchange rate against the US Dollar, with the EURUSD appreciating by 0.34 percent. The Japanese Yen is also up, with the USDJPY depreciating by 0.25 percent.
24 Hour Price Action

EURUSD_Inches_Towards_1.26_Ahead_of_Critical_Weekend_body_Picture_1.png, EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical WeekendEURUSD_Inches_Towards_1.26_Ahead_of_Critical_Weekend_body_Picture_7.png, EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical WeekendKey Levels: 14: 30 GMT

EURUSD_Inches_Towards_1.26_Ahead_of_Critical_Weekend_body_Picture_5.png, EURUSD Inches Towards 1.26 Ahead of Critical Weekend
Thus far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading lower, at 10150.07 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10182.23. The index has traded mostly lower, with the high at 10188.17 and the low at 10147.81.

Friday, February 3, 2012

TradeTheNews.com European market update: risk appetite benefits such as Europe inches on the way to the tax

Tuesday, January 31, 2012 5:45:19 AM

  European Market Update: Risk appetite benefits as Europe inches towards fiscal union

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €2.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €2.4B prior; €479.4B parked in deposit facility vs. €488.9B prior
- (IN) India FY11 annual GDP Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.4% prior (Revision)
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 6.3%e v 5.9% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.2% v 7.6%e
- (DE) Germany Dec Retail Sales M/M: -1.4%% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v 0.9%e
- (DE) Germany Dec ILO Employment : 41.26M v 41.19M prior; Unemployment: 5.5% v 5.5% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: -€358.0M v -€260M prelim
- (CH) Swiss Dec UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.92 v 0.78 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Leading Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prior; Coincident Index M/M: -0.6% v -0.6% prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Business Sentiment Index: 48.5 v 39.0 prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Current Account Balance: +1.9B v -$1.0Be; Total Trade Account Balance: -$238M v +$218M prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.0B v -$1.5B prior
- (FR) France Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.7%e
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Spending M/M: -0.7% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -2.1%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Total Housing Permits M/M: -13.2 v -22.0% prior; Housing Permits Y/Y: -31.5% v -2.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Central Bank publishes Dec Balance Sheet Data: Currency Holdings (CHF): 257.5B v 261.9B prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.7% v 10.%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.5% v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.4%e
- (ES) Spain January Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$8.1B v -$8.6Be
- (TW) Taiwan Q4 Preliminary GDP Constant Prices Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.8%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: -34K v -10Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.7% v 6.8%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.6% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.5% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8/8% v 3.1% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Govt Mthly Budget Budget (HKD): +38.3BB v -1.4B prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec Money Supply Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior
- (IC) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): 6.9B v 14.5B prelim
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 8.9% v 8.7%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.5%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Retail sales Volume M/M: -0.3 v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.2%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Current Account: -€4.1B v +€0.5B prior
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit: -£0.4B v +£0.4Be; Net Lending: £0.7B v £0.8Be
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: 52.9K v 54.0Ke
- (UK) Dec M4 Money Supply M/M: -1.4% v -0.5% prior (largest monthly decline on record); Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.5% prior; M4 Ex OFCs 3M Annualized: -0.8 v +3.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.4% 10.4%e (highest level since April 1998)
- (BE) Belgium Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e
- (GR) Greece Nov Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -6.3% v -8.1% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -8.9% v -10.8% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Central Bank left the Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%; as expected
- (EU) OECD Dec Inflation Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.0 %e; Y/Y: --1.2% v 0.8%e
- (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.5 v -2.3 % prior; Y/Y: -8.7 v -3.0% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: +2.3% v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -10.3% v -9.2% prior


Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2018, 2020 and 2031 Bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted €115.6B vs. €120Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B in 3-Month Bills; avg yield 7.41% v 7.94% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 3.15x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €2.58B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold €1.64B vs. €1.8Be in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.506% v 0.429% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.70x v 2.23x prior
- Sold €940M vs. €1.2Be in 6-month Bills, Avg Yield 0.710% v 0.364% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.02x v 2.01x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- EU Governments appear to be closer to fiscal union arrangement and agreement on €500B ESM Bailout Fund
-ECB Draghi: Fiscal Pact is first step toward fiscal union
- Continued optimism on progress in Greek PSI talks
- German Jan unemployment data beats expectations
- Italy Dec Unemployment data higher than expectations
- Euro Zone Dec Unemployment of 10.4% is the highest since 1998


Equities:
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5715, DAX +0.90% at 6503, CAC-40 +1.1% at 3302, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8553, FTSE MIB +1.5% at 15,983, SMI +0.30% at 5989


- European shares rose during the session as markets adopted a risk-on attitude following EU summit. European leaders agreed on stricter budget plan while Greece's PM Papademos noted that debt talks had advanced significantly. Continental banks rose on optimism while UK banks declined after Santander [SAN.ES] expected a tough 2012 for UK banks. Oil stocks were also up tracking gains in crude.
- ARM Holdings [ARM.UK] reported higher than expected earnings which pushed the stock higher.


Speakers:
- EU's Juncker commented that there was no need for a special commissioner to monitor Greece and forecasted an agreement between Greece and private creditors possible by end of week and Monday 'at the latest' and heinsisted to Greek PM Papademos that PSI be settled asap. He added that Mersch was the best candidate for ECB executive board.
- China Premier Wen reiterated the view that China would fine tune its economic policy and step up credit support for the economy at a State Council meeting. He commented that it would promote reasonable decline in housing prices
- German Chancellor Merkel was said to be seeking support of Chinese investors and lobby for joint euro stabilization in China ahead of her Official Visit to the Far East (set for Feb 1st thru 4th)
- BOE Tucker commented that bank rules must expose debt and equity investors to losses
- India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan commented that the country needed to use all tools to combat inflation and lowerits budget deficit to deliver higher economic growth. He stressed that India should target a current account deficit below 2.5% of GDP


Currencies:
- Risk appetite was bolstered by the outcome of the EU Leader Summit on Monday which moved closer fiscal union for 25 States (Except UK and Czech Republic) and to finally sign off on the details of a €500B permanent bailout fund. The final shape of the deal to reduce Greece's debt is still unknown after
months of wrangling between the Greek government but optimism continued to prevail
- The USD maintained a softer tone against the major pairs. The EUR/USD was back testing the 1.32 handle but was unable to take out last Friday's intra-day high of 1.3220. The pair was off its best levels as the various European data continued to highlight the two-tier economies of Europe. German unemployment data was at record lows while the whole the Euro Zone unemployment was at its highest level since early 1998. German retail sales did show that its economy had pockets of weakness.
- The JPY strength remained apparent with USD/JPY probing the lower end of the 76 handle and some two big figures from last week's high in the pair. EUR/JPY was at 100.67


Political/ In the Papers:
- The FT commented that European banks may ask for further funds from the ECB. Banks in Europe may tap the ECBs funding scheme for up to two times more than the ECB supplied in €489 billion auction last month, indicating a possible further liquidity squeeze. Several large European banks said they may double, or even triple funding requests in February's auction (29th Feb). US banks Goldman Sachs informed their clients that banks could ask for twice as much as the auction in December; one senior banker stated that banks could easily do another €1 trillion.
- Various press articles out of Europe commented on the rising borrowing costs in Portugal, as it hit record highs following fears that it could follow in Greece's footstep towards a debt write-down. SocGen economist Nixon said Portugal may struggle in its plans to return to the capital markets by the end of next year. It may require additional finances, which may mean a second bailout, or possibly a similar Greek-like debt write-down. Evans-Pritchard also noted contagion concerns related to Greece have weighed on Portuguese bonds with Investors doubting EU officials' pledges that haircuts would not be applied to debt.
- Following its FY12 cut in economic forecasts (from 1% to just 0.9%), the IBEC (Irish Business and Employers' Confederation) reiterated a call for measures aimed at stimulating consumer spending. One suggestion was to allow people to draw down part of private pensions or other voluntary contributions to spend at this time.

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia 2011 Annual Real GDP Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior
- 7:00 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Term Deposits; To drain €219.0B
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.1% prior
- 7:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance: -1.6Be v -8.0B prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Primary Budget Balance: 1.B v 8.2B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: no est v -10.2B prior; Net debt to GDP: 36.4%e v 36.6% prior
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store sales
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil ABRAS Dec Supermarket Sales
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Jan Inflation Expectations: No est v 4.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.1%e v +0.2% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 3.8% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.7% prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Retail Sales
- 9:00 (US) Nov S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: -0.50%e v -0.62% prior; Y/Y: -3.3%e v -3.4% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 140.3 prior
- 9:45 (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 63.0e v 62.2 prior
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.7B in 2038-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (US) Revisions to ISM's 2012 Seasonal Adjustments
- 10:00 (US) Jan Consumer Confidence: 68.0e v 64.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAPM Milwaukee: 57.5e v 57.8 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico International Reserves w/e Jan 27th
- 11:00 (US) CBO releases economic outlook
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.3%e v 10.3% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) German Econ Min Roesler
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- 21:30 (CN) China Jan HSBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 48.7 prior
- (US) Republican Florida Primary

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Wednesday, February 1, 2012

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite benefits as Europe inches towards fiscal union


 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite benefits as Europe inches towards fiscal union

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €2.2B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €2.4B prior; €479.4B parked in deposit facility vs. €488.9B prior
- (IN) India FY11 annual GDP Y/Y: 8.4% v 8.4% prior (Revision)
- (ZA) South Africa Dec Private Sector Credit Y/Y: 6.3%e v 5.9% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 8.2% v 7.6%e
- (DE) Germany Dec Retail Sales M/M: -1.4%% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v 0.9%e
- (DE) Germany Dec ILO Employment : 41.26M v 41.19M prior; Unemployment: 5.5% v 5.5% prior
- (FI) Finland Nov Final Trade Balance: -€358.0M v -€260M prelim
- (CH) Swiss Dec UBS Consumption Indicator: 0.92 v 0.78 prior
- (TW) Taiwan Dec Leading Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.5% prior; Coincident Index M/M: -0.6% v -0.6% prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Business Sentiment Index: 48.5 v 39.0 prior
- (TH) Thailand Dec Current Account Balance: +1.9B v -$1.0Be; Total Trade Account Balance: -$238M v +$218M prior; Overall Trade Balance: -$1.0B v -$1.5B prior
- (FR) France Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.7% v 4.7%e
- (FR) France Dec Consumer Spending M/M: -0.7% v +0.2%e; Y/Y: -3.1% v -2.1%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Total Housing Permits M/M: -13.2 v -22.0% prior; Housing Permits Y/Y: -31.5% v -2.9% prior
- (CH) Swiss Central Bank publishes Dec Balance Sheet Data: Currency Holdings (CHF): 257.5B v 261.9B prior
- (HU) Hungary Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.7% v 10.%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Producer Prices M/M: -0.5% v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: 7.5% v 7.4%e
- (ES) Spain January Preliminary Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.3%e; CPI EU Harmonized Y/Y: 2.0% v 2.2%e
- (TR) Turkey Dec Trade Balance: -$8.1B v -$8.6Be
- (TW) Taiwan Q4 Preliminary GDP Constant Prices Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.8%e
- (DE) Germany Jan Unemployment Change: -34K v -10Ke; Unemployment Rate: 6.7% v 6.8%e
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec M2 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.6% prior; M3 Money Supply Y/Y: 4.6% v 3.5% prior; M1 Money Supply Y/Y: 8/8% v 3.1% prior
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Govt Mthly Budget Budget (HKD): +38.3BB v -1.4B prior
- (CZ) Czech Dec Money Supply Y/Y: 5.2% v 5.2% prior
- (IC) Iceland Dec Final Trade Balance (ISK): 6.9B v 14.5B prelim
- (IT) Italy Dec Preliminary Unemployment Rate: 8.9% v 8.7%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Credit Indicator Growth Y/Y: 6.7% v 6.5%e
- (NO) Norway Dec Retail sales Volume M/M: -0.3 v +0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.2%e
- (ES) Spain Nov Current Account: -€4.1B v +€0.5B prior
- (UK) Dec Net Consumer Credit: -£0.4B v +£0.4Be; Net Lending: £0.7B v £0.8Be
- (UK) Dec Mortgage Approvals: 52.9K v 54.0Ke
- (UK) Dec M4 Money Supply M/M: -1.4% v -0.5% prior (largest monthly decline on record); Y/Y: -2.5% v -2.5% prior; M4 Ex OFCs 3M Annualized: -0.8 v +3.2% prior
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Unemployment Rate: 10.4% 10.4%e (highest level since April 1998)
- (BE) Belgium Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.2% v 7.2% prior
- (IT) Italy Dec PPI M/M: +0.1% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 3.8% v 3.7%e
- (GR) Greece Nov Retail Sales Value Y/Y: -6.3% v -8.1% prior; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -8.9% v -10.8% prior
- (MA) Malaysia Central Bank left the Overnight Rate unchanged at 3.00%; as expected
- (EU) OECD Dec Inflation Y/Y: 2.9% v 3.1% prior
- (BR) Brazil Dec Industrial Production M/M: 0.9% v 1.0 %e; Y/Y: --1.2% v 0.8%e
- (PT) Portugal Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.5 v -2.3 % prior; Y/Y: -8.7 v -3.0% prior
- (PT) Portugal Dec Retail Sales M/M: +2.3% v -2.5% prior; Y/Y: -10.3% v -9.2% prior


Fixed Income:
- (ZA) South Africa sold total ZAR2.1B vs. ZAR2.1B indicated in 2018, 2020 and 2031 Bonds
- (EU) ECB allotted €115.6B vs. €120Be in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B in 3-Month Bills; avg yield 7.41% v 7.94% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.73x v 3.15x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €2.58B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month and 6-month Bills
- Sold €1.64B vs. €1.8Be in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.506% v 0.429% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.70x v 2.23x prior
- Sold €940M vs. €1.2Be in 6-month Bills, Avg Yield 0.710% v 0.364% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.02x v 2.01x prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- EU Governments appear to be closer to fiscal union arrangement and agreement on €500B ESM Bailout Fund
-ECB Draghi: Fiscal Pact is first step toward fiscal union
- Continued optimism on progress in Greek PSI talks
- German Jan unemployment data beats expectations
- Italy Dec Unemployment data higher than expectations
- Euro Zone Dec Unemployment of 10.4% is the highest since 1998


Equities:
FTSE 100 +0.80% at 5715, DAX +0.90% at 6503, CAC-40 +1.1% at 3302, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 8553, FTSE MIB +1.5% at 15,983, SMI +0.30% at 5989


- European shares rose during the session as markets adopted a risk-on attitude following EU summit. European leaders agreed on stricter budget plan while Greece's PM Papademos noted that debt talks had advanced significantly. Continental banks rose on optimism while UK banks declined after Santander [SAN.ES] expected a tough 2012 for UK banks. Oil stocks were also up tracking gains in crude.
- ARM Holdings [ARM.UK] reported higher than expected earnings which pushed the stock higher.


Speakers:
- EU's Juncker commented that there was no need for a special commissioner to monitor Greece and forecasted an agreement between Greece and private creditors possible by end of week and Monday 'at the latest' and heinsisted to Greek PM Papademos that PSI be settled asap. He added that Mersch was the best candidate for ECB executive board.
- China Premier Wen reiterated the view that China would fine tune its economic policy and step up credit support for the economy at a State Council meeting. He commented that it would promote reasonable decline in housing prices
- German Chancellor Merkel was said to be seeking support of Chinese investors and lobby for joint euro stabilization in China ahead of her Official Visit to the Far East (set for Feb 1st thru 4th)
- BOE Tucker commented that bank rules must expose debt and equity investors to losses
- India PM Econ Advisor Rangarajan commented that the country needed to use all tools to combat inflation and lowerits budget deficit to deliver higher economic growth. He stressed that India should target a current account deficit below 2.5% of GDP


Currencies:
- Risk appetite was bolstered by the outcome of the EU Leader Summit on Monday which moved closer fiscal union for 25 States (Except UK and Czech Republic) and to finally sign off on the details of a €500B permanent bailout fund. The final shape of the deal to reduce Greece's debt is still unknown after
months of wrangling between the Greek government but optimism continued to prevail
- The USD maintained a softer tone against the major pairs. The EUR/USD was back testing the 1.32 handle but was unable to take out last Friday's intra-day high of 1.3220. The pair was off its best levels as the various European data continued to highlight the two-tier economies of Europe. German unemployment data was at record lows while the whole the Euro Zone unemployment was at its highest level since early 1998. German retail sales did show that its economy had pockets of weakness.
- The JPY strength remained apparent with USD/JPY probing the lower end of the 76 handle and some two big figures from last week's high in the pair. EUR/JPY was at 100.67


Political/ In the Papers:
- The FT commented that European banks may ask for further funds from the ECB. Banks in Europe may tap the ECBs funding scheme for up to two times more than the ECB supplied in €489 billion auction last month, indicating a possible further liquidity squeeze. Several large European banks said they may double, or even triple funding requests in February's auction (29th Feb). US banks Goldman Sachs informed their clients that banks could ask for twice as much as the auction in December; one senior banker stated that banks could easily do another €1 trillion.
- Various press articles out of Europe commented on the rising borrowing costs in Portugal, as it hit record highs following fears that it could follow in Greece's footstep towards a debt write-down. SocGen economist Nixon said Portugal may struggle in its plans to return to the capital markets by the end of next year. It may require additional finances, which may mean a second bailout, or possibly a similar Greek-like debt write-down. Evans-Pritchard also noted contagion concerns related to Greece have weighed on Portuguese bonds with Investors doubting EU officials' pledges that haircuts would not be applied to debt.
- Following its FY12 cut in economic forecasts (from 1% to just 0.9%), the IBEC (Irish Business and Employers' Confederation) reiterated a call for measures aimed at stimulating consumer spending. One suggestion was to allow people to draw down part of private pensions or other voluntary contributions to spend at this time.

***Looking Ahead***
- (RU) Russia 2011 Annual Real GDP Y/Y: No est v 4.0% prior
- 7:00 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Term Deposits; To drain €219.0B
- 7:00 (CL) Chile Dec Unemployment Rate: 7.1%e v 7.1% prior
- 7:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Trade Balance: -1.6Be v -8.0B prior
- 7:30 (BR) Brazil Dec Primary Budget Balance: 1.B v 8.2B prior; Nominal Budget Balance: no est v -10.2B prior; Net debt to GDP: 36.4%e v 36.6% prior
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store sales
- 8:00 (BR) Brazil ABRAS Dec Supermarket Sales
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Central Bank Jan Inflation Expectations: No est v 4.8% prior
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Employment Cost Index: 0.4%e v 0.3% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Dec Industrial Product Price M/M: -0.1%e v +0.2% prior; Raw Materials Price Index M/M: 0.0%e v 3.8% prior
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Nov Gross Domestic Product M/M: 0.2%e v 0.0% prior; Y/Y: 2.3%e v 2.7% prior
- 8:55 (US) Redbook Weekly Retail Sales
- 9:00 (US) Nov S&P/CaseShiller 20 City M/M: -0.50%e v -0.62% prior; Y/Y: -3.3%e v -3.4% prior; Home Price Index: No est v 140.3 prior
- 9:45 (US) Jan Chicago Purchasing Manager: 63.0e v 62.2 prior
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.7B in 2038-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (US) Revisions to ISM's 2012 Seasonal Adjustments
- 10:00 (US) Jan Consumer Confidence: 68.0e v 64.5 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jan NAPM Milwaukee: 57.5e v 57.8 prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico International Reserves w/e Jan 27th
- 11:00 (US) CBO releases economic outlook
- 11:00 (CO) Colombia Dec Urban Unemployment Rate: 10.3%e v 10.3% prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $2.25-2.75B in Notes
- 11:30 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 12:00 (DE) German Econ Min Roesler
- 14:00 (AR) Argentina Dec Construction Activity M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
- 21:30 (CN) China Jan HSBC Manufacturing PMI: No est v 48.7 prior
- (US) Republican Florida Primary

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As Greek Bond Deal Inches Closer, Government Defends Budget Autonomy

As Davos wraps up and the E.U. economic summit gets under way, news out of the Eurozone this past weekend looks to set the course for a rocky trading week for the common currency. Greece, again, is at the forefront of the news on two separate fronts. First, the Greek government and its private bondholders appear closer to a deal which would see the creditors take a haircut of more than 70% and exchange maturing bonds with a coupon rate considerably below 4%, which they previously insisted would be their limit.
On the OpenBook, traders would appear to somewhat less optimistic of the agreement and have opened up 2 short positions in the EUR/USD pair to every 1 long. After making a 4.75% profit on a closed sell, guru Hschinner also opened up one short which is targeting 1.2932, and holds two other shorts which target the 1.26 range. Despite the triggering of a stop over the weekend which resulted in a 90% loss, this guru is still on track to record a 100+% profit for the last three months, and 163% gains in the past six months.

The Euro-Dollar is currently trading higher at 1.3149; OpenBook guru pyruss, who opened several long positions on Friday’s dip, says he has a feeling that the pair could correct at 1.2900 or below which would play into the numerous shorts he also holds open. Since closing out his short positions, guru pawelskrzypek has placed over a dozen buy orders and is just waiting for the momentum to reverse to see those trades actualized.
Also over the weekend, raising the ire of several Greek officials, was a proposal put forth by the German government which suggested that Greece’s budget should be overseen by an outside party as a condition to the next bailout loan. The Greek finance minister responded to that with anger, saying that such a move would improperly compel his countrymen to choose between “national dignity” and “financial assistance.”