$ Dollar, Yen, vulnerable, as markets absorb news related to the stream Greece

May 17, 2012 strategist 06: 33 GMT Talking Points
Dollar and Yen Correct lower in Asia, more than Q1 GDP Slump for the same likely prior to Confirmation of the Spain Bond Auction unlikely surprise us economic Data Set potential of Japan Boost risk Sentiment recovery forecast Tops of economic growth, Q4 revised Contraction Away The US Dollar and Japanese Yen corrected lower during the night that the stocks increased in Asian tradesinking of the currencies refuge go - to application. The MSCI Asia Pacific index rose 1% regional reference shares after topped expectations, Japanese GDP figures showing the output increased by 1% in the first quarter. The result of the fourth quarter has been revised also more clear contraction initially reported 0.7 to show a modest increase of 0.1% instead. The Japan is the second largest Asian economy after China and better performance it stimulated regional perspectives in General.
In the future, S & P 500 stock index futures are pointing more strongly, pointing out the risk appetite may continue to recover at the expense of the Dollar and the Yen in the next few hours. Corrective rebound seems reasonable. The prospect of the Greece out of the eurozone - the catalyst behind the last rout the entire spectrum of risky assets - appear to be shocking power for the time being given the traders to wait for a repeat of the general election on June 15 to get their bearings on the situation. In the meantime, the already exit negative news flow it is probably entered prices, encouraging a period of profit.
The economic calendar is relatively calm, with a final revision of the figures of the Spanish GDP amounting to the only little risk of important event. Expectations called the original result showing a contraction of 0.3% quarter to quarter to confirm. Madrid is also due to a slice of 2015 and 2016 bonds. Traders will be keeping an eye on the average yield and readings of submission to the other, but an increase in borrowing costs seems unlikely stir after the fireworks as German and Spanish spread between reference 10-year bond rate hit a record rate yesterday 487.7 bps.
Later in the day, the economic role of the U.S. can help feeling of higher training. Initial and continuing jobless claims are expected to print lower, with former hitting the lowest six weeks at 365 K whereas the latter defines an another four years to 3225K down. Separately, the tonnage of the Philadelphia Fed business confidence should rebound in may after having struck a minimum of three months in April. Finally, the composite Leading Indicators sees increase of 0.1% in April, marking the increase in the seventh row and reached the highest level since June 2008.
Asia session: What happened
-Prices of inputs (QoQ) (first quarter)
Price - output (QoQ) (first quarter)
Consumer Inflation expectation (may)
ANZ consumer confidence index (may)
ANZ (MoM) consumer confidence (may)
The average weekly wages (QoQ) (FEB)
The average weekly wages (YoY) (FEB)
Sales of condominiums in Tokyo (YoY) (APR)
Industrial production (MoM) (MAR, F)
Industrial production (YoY) (MAR, F)
Use of capacity (MoM) (MAR, F)
Commands of the machine tool (YoY) (APR F)
Session of the euro: what to expect
Critical levels

~~ Stream Haven Stoke claim for USD, AUD JPY - disadvantage Scalps in game

08 May 2012 16:14 GMT Daily Winners and Losers




The Japanese yen is the top performer against a stronger dollar at the close of European trade with an advance of 0.07% on the session. Risk aversion is in full effect in early US trade with global equity markets off sharply as ongoing concerns about the deepening crisis in Europe fueled haven flows into the yen and the dollar, keeping the pair well supported above the 100-day moving average at 79.65. Greece has come back into focus with the results of this weekend’s elections yielding no victor after voters rejected both parties. With the failure of officials to form a coalition government, attention now shifts to the weeks ahead when the nation will need to ensure that it is achieving its budgetary targets before receiving the next tranche of aid from the Troika. With calls for a Greek exit of the euro once again resurfacing, look for broader market sentiment to remain on the defensive as contagion fears take root.
The USDJPY has continued to trade within the confines of a descending channel formation off the March highs with the exchange rate holding just below the 50% Fibonacci retracement taken form the February advance at 79.90. While our medium-term bias on the pair remains weighted to the topside, we note favorable long entries between the 61.8% retracement at the 79-figure and the 100-day moving average at 79.65 with our objective eyed at the 23.6% extension just shy of the 82 figure.

The scalp chart shows the USDJPY breaking back below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken form the April 1st and 20th crests at 79.90 before encountering soft support at 79.70. A more substantiated move into risk aversion risks further downside pressure with a break below interim support eyeing subsequent floors at the 78.6% extension at 79.40, 79.20 and the 79.Figure. Interim topside resistance now stands at 79.90 backed closely by 80.10, the 50% extension at 80.26 and the 38.2% extension at 80.62. A confirmed break above channel resistance (on a close basis) would invalidate our bias with such a scenario eying topside levels at 80.85 and the 23.6% extension at 81.06.
Key Levels/Indicators

Level/Indicator	Level
200-Day SMA	78.39
100-Day SMA	79.65
50-Day SMA	81.64
2012 JPY High	76.02

The Australian dollar is the weakest performer against the greenback with a decline of more than 0.83% on the session. Weaker-than-expected trade balance figures out of Australia last night weighed heavily on the aussie with the print showing a deficit of 1587M, grossly missing consensus estimates that called for a deficit of just 1300M. The data marks the largest trade deficit in Australia since October of 2009 and with ongoing concerns about a slowdown in China, the aussie is likely to remain under pressure. The pair remains within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to March 6th with the aussie testing channel support at the 1.01-handle in early US trade. Our primary weekly objective remains the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement taken form the December advance at 1.0074 with former trendline resistance dating back to July 2011 resting just below. Note that daily RSI is now at its lowest levels since November 25th with further losses for the aussie expected in the weeks ahead.


The scalp chart shows the pair trading within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to the April 27th highs with the aussie breaking below soft support at 1.0115 before rebounding off the 38.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the April 27th and May 7th crests at 1.0088. We continue to favor selling into aussie rallies with a break back below this level eyeing downside support targets eyed at 1.0075, the 50% extension at 1.0050, 1.0025, and the 61.8% extension just above parity. Topside resistance stands at the 23.6% extension at 1.0140 backed by 1.0170, and 1.0190. A breach above our Fibonacci reference point at 1.0220 invalidates this specific setup with such scenario eyeing key resistance at 1.0240 (61.8% Fib Retracement on daily chart).
Key Levels/Indicators