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Showing posts with label results. Show all posts
Showing posts with label results. Show all posts

Friday, June 29, 2012

Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit Results

Fundamental headlines
-Facilitated EU leaders rules of the Spain debt crisis - Bloomberg
-Euro rises after the EU abandons leaders Spain loan seniority - Bloomberg
-Why Roberts saved right from the Obama - Reuters Health
-The euro area saw only bank supervisor - WSJ
-Summit report outlines the Divisions on the sharing of power - WSJ
Summary of Asian and European Session
Oh, what a night. The past several currencies beta high days and correlated to the risk of the assets were under pressure as expectations for any kind of measures of the eurozone Summit flatly was zero. The logic was, and remains, European leaders did not have the means necessary to implement the structural reforms needed to not only stop the financial pain in the short term, but also to solve problems in the long term that first created the sovereign debt crisis.
Certainly, one of these was accomplished at the Summit this week, leading to the largest gathering of the Euro altogether by 2012. The US Dollar has had its worst day of the year; overall, we study the simple high beta currency plu displacement and correlated with the risk since 30 November 2011, when the federal reserve announced that its two years of currencies with European Central banks. Oh, what a night.
A step back in the charts for a second, we must take into account the parameters of the measures communicated to the Summit to decide or not to now almost-2 percent move in the Australian Dollar and the Euro will be long-term, or if we see some additional volatility due to the end of the month and the quarter.
In my view, there are four glaring holes in the top ads. First of all, it is clear that, in view of the language contained in the declaration, no bank recapitalisation plan by the European stability mechanism (ESM, which replaces the EFSF, the European financial stability facility) is not a guarantee; It is a possibility if strict conditions are met. Second, and stay on environmentally sound management, these changes must now be ratified by all 17 members of the Euro area; and the Germany still to ratify the agreement of the first. The ESM is therefore not be enabled. Third, the idea of the direct bank recapitalisation does serve well with taxpayers in the European core. And finally, fourth, mechanisms of rescue, in my opinion, are doomed to failure once the Italy and the Spain tap them. Once these countries tap the funds, the burden falls on the country in better health, and we have already seen that the Germany will be difficult to convince them to contribute more funds.
If there is a positive result at the Summit, it would be that the seniority has been removed from the ESM. This means that private holders who have been forced to take a cut of hair on Greek loans, have the same pain. This should allow Spanish yields recover. They have to date, with performance in Spanish note 2 years fell to 4.267 percent and performance of the note of 10 years at 6.393%.
EURUSD 5-minute: 29 June 2012
Aussie_Euro_Have_Best_Days_Since_November_on_Summit_Results_body_x0000_i1028.png, Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit ResultsGraphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Australian Dollar is the now surging 1.99% against the U.S. Dollar this day Friday. The EURUSD is significantly stronger, appreciating of 1.94%. The New Zealand Dollar has followed more so, with the NZDUSD judging of 1.90%. The Japanese Yen is the worst, with the USDJPY rallying for only 0.16 per cent.
PriceAction 24-hour
Aussie_Euro_Have_Best_Days_Since_November_on_Summit_Results_body_Picture_1.png, Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit ResultsAussie_Euro_Have_Best_Days_Since_November_on_Summit_Results_body_Picture_7.png, Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit Results

Main levels: 14: 20 GMT
Aussie_Euro_Have_Best_Days_Since_November_on_Summit_Results_body_Picture_4.png, Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit Results
So far, on Friday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is significantly less, trade at 10056.19 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 10173.06. The index traded mostly lower, with the high in the 10179.54 and bass at 10049.57.

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

$$$$$Euro on the decline despite softer results of PMI

The Takeaway: eurozone Composite PMI hits 3-year low-> Markit Economics predicts-0.5% contraction in the second quarter-> Euro set aside earlier gains
Out of manufacturing and services in the euro area has reached the level the lowest since June 2009, according to the economic managers of Markit purchasing index survey of the. The PMI composite index at 46.0 may, slightly above the previously estimated 45.9. The euro-zone composite PMI has fallen for four straight months, since the January index reported the increase in production. A survey less than 50 points of exit of contracting PMI.
The lower PMI indicates a slowdown of the economy in Europe, even the usually strong Germany shows contracting output. Composite German PMI fell to a low 49.3 of 34 months in may, the result of 50.5 positive in April. French and Spanish composite PMI also decreased in May.
Services PMI in each country of the euro have been developed this morning; Germany services PMI were reported as expansion depending on the outcome of 51.8 for may, even lower than the previously estimated 52.2. France and the Italy both had contracting production services, although the Italy of 42.8 PMI was better than the estimated 42.0 and 42.3 index reported in April.
Markit Economics reported this weak demand has led to losses of jobs between services and manufacturing industries. However, a slight increase of German jobs in may softened the unemployment rate for the euro area in a whole. Chief Economist Chris Williamson of the markit predicts a contraction of 0.5% of the Q2 GDP of the euro area, according to the report.
It is said that G7 leaders are meeting today to discuss ways to improve the European economy and to help the Greece to avoid output of the single currency. German Prime Minister Angela Merkel said so far that it does support joint Government in euro bonds.

Euro_Back_on_the_Decline_Despite_Softer_PMI_Results___body_eurusd.png, Euro Back on the Decline Despite Softer PMI ResultsEUR/USD reversed earlier gains of day in the hours leading up to the release of the PMI, probably fall because of feelings on the G7 meeting possible and the negative comments recently by the Minister of the Spanish budget.
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Tuesday, April 24, 2012

|| Vulnerable Euro Bond sale results, German forecast update

Discussion points
Euro seems vulnerable on the Italian and Dutch Bond Auction results Germany to release the value of macroeconomic forecast updates for 2012 Australian Dollar sank after ICC disappoints, stimulate the RBA cut rates Paris the Euro is in a precarious position that views on the results of auctions of binding andItalian Dutch markets and the release of macro-economic forecasts updated by the Ministry of the German economy. Rome will sell coupon 2014 debt and inflation-linked 2017 and 2019 paper while Amsterdam is 2014 and 2037 links. Traders will be be keeping a close eye on the average yields of signs of sovereign stress of return.
The auction comes in the growing concern that the anti-austerity feeling fuels political instability in the region and can undermine the efforts of debt reduction. French President Nicolas Sarkozy lost in the first round of his re-election challenger anti-austerity campaign Francois Holland over the weekend in Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and his cabinet resigned yesterday, having failed to agree on additional measures for deficit reduction.
During this time in Germany, a set of update of the official Government forecasts will be size against readings of PMI manufacturing and services April sharp drop of yesterday. Officials cut their prospects for growth of GDP 2012 to 0.7% in January of 1.0% in October of last year. A further reduction could to influence the risk appetite - stimulating Mint haven such as the Dollar and the Japanese Yen - that the dominant across financial markets theme is the degree to which a recession in the euro area will be derailing world production as a whole.
The lower Australian Dollar in trade during the night, collapse up to 0.8% against its major counterparts, after the digits of the price index dropped by forecasts of economists and strengthened expectations of an RBA interest rate cut next week policy meeting. The report shows that annualized inflation rate fell to 1.6% in the first quarter, the lowest in two years and a half.
More worrisome, the decrease in percentage of 1.5 point rate of 3.1% in the three months to December 2011 marked the largest quarterly decline in more than a decade. Markets, now the price of the certainty of a 25 bps decrease the rate of loan of reference with a slight possibility of a greater reduction, according to data compiled by the Credit Switzerland. The prospects for 12 months implies now 110 bps overall relaxation.
Asia session: What happened
Corporate price (YoY) (MAR)
Index of consumer prices (QoQ) (first quarter)
Index of consumer prices (YoY) (first quarter)
Weighted median RBA (QoQ) (first quarter)
Weighted median RBA (YoY) (first quarter)
Conference Board leading economic index (MAR)
Credit card spending s.a. (MoM) (MAR)
Credit card, spending (YoY) (MAR)
Session of the euro: what to expect
Of France (APR) consumer confidence indicator
Survey companies of France - aggregate demand (APR)
Netherlands to sell 2014-2037 links
Italian hourly wage (MoM) (MAR)
Italian hourly wages (YoY) (MAR)
Public finances (PSNCR) (£) (MAR)
Sector public borrowing Net (£) (MAR)
Italy sells 2014 zero-PCN, 2017-2019 I / L links
German Econ Department publishes forecasts
Critical levels

Thursday, March 8, 2012

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite finds numerous factors to feast upon in session; Greek PSI results set for release on Friday at 0600 GMT

Thursday, March 08, 2012 5:45:25 AM TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Risk appetite finds numerous factors to feast upon in session; Greek PSI results set for release on Friday at 0600 GMT***Economic Data***
- (JP) Feb Preliminary Machine Tool Orders -8.6% v -6.9% prior
- (FR) France Q1 Final Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.1% v -0.2%e v -0.2% prelim
- (FR) Bank of France Feb Business Sentiment: 95 v 96e
- (FR) France Jan Trade Balance: -€5.3B v -€5.2Be
- (CZ) Czech Feb Unemployment Rate: 9.2% v 9.1%e
- (CZ) Czech Jan Trade Balance (CZK): 29.6B v 22.0Be
- (TR) Turkey Jan Industrial Production WDA M/M: -3.1% v +2.5% prior; Y/Y: -1.3% v +3.8% prior; Industrial Production NSA Y/Y: 1.5% v 3.5%e
- (CH) Swiss Feb CPI M/M: 0l.3% v 0.2%e; -0.9%e v -1.0% prior
- (CH) Swiss Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M: 0.1% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -0.7%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI M/M: -0.8% v 0.7%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.4%e
- (NL) Netherlands Feb CPI EU Harmonized M/M:1.0% v 0.9%; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.8%e
- (SE) Sweden Jan Average House Prices (SEK): 2.322M v 2.078M prior
- (IC) Iceland Q4 GDP Q/Q: 1.9% v 4.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.7 v 3.8% prior
- (GR) Greece Dec Unemployment Rate: 21.0% v 20.9% prior (record)
- (ZA) South Africa Q1 BER Business Confidence: 52.0 v 38.0 prior

Fixed Income: - (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold Total HUF49B vs. HUF40B indicated in 2015, 2017 and 2022 Bonds
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Brazil Central Bank cuts rate by 75bps to 9.75% (more than expected)
- Rumors that PBoC could cut RRR and/or widen its currency trading band
- Australia Unemployment data softer than expectations
- Japanese current account hits record deficit
- Greek PSI participation deadline later today; EU official remain optimistic on the take-up; Results set for release on Friday at 0600GMT
- No surprises expected at BOE and ECB monetary policy meetings

Equities: FTSE 100 +1.1% at 5853, DAX +1.6% at 6780, CAC-40 +1.7% at 3449, IBEX-35 +1% at 8236, FTSE MIB +1.1% at 16,572, SMI +0.40% at 6129
- European shares rose ahead of Greek debt-swap deadline as rumors were rampant on the market that Greek PSI acceptance is high. ECB is also expected to announce its interest rate decision today expected to be unchanged at 1.0%. Economists expect bank to raise the inflation forecast above the 2% price-stability threshold which would limit further rate cutting. US economic data, namely the initial jobless claims, are also expected during NY morning.
- EADS [EAD.FR] was up following its strong quarter. Deutsche Post [DPW.DE] also rose following its results. Company also raised its dividend and predicted further growth in 2012 revenue. Air France [AF.FR] reported a wider loss than expected, even though revenues came in stronger. Company noted that H1 would be below previous year results due to a rising fuel bill and that FY12 remained uncertain

Speakers: - Greece gov't said to announce PSI results Friday, March 9th at 01:00 ET (06:00 GMT)
- German Econ Advisor Bofinger commented that the Greek debt swaps would go through but the country's debt burden would remain huge. He stressed that Greece needed to rethink its strategy and implement a real debt relief plan over the next year
- Former ECB member Stark commented in the German press that the quality of ECB balance sheet was alarming Stark noted that the Eurosystem's balance sheet was not only gigantic in its dimension but also alarming in its quality. He added that the structure of the balance sheet was a cause for concern because increasingly short-term debt claims were being replaced by long-term ones and this would make it more difficult for the bank to reverse its loose monetary policy
- Spain regions said to be unable to meet deficit target (This would contradict weekend press that all 17 regions would target budget deficits of 1.5% of GDP.
- SNB's Jordan commented that diversifying its currency portfolio was an ongoing debate but had yet to look at South Korean or Russian currencies at this time
- Hungary IMF representative Fellegi commented that the Govt sought an EU/IMF agreement asap and stresses that it had no "plan B'. The EU/IMF discussions were closely linked to infringement and it would discuss central bank law when it met the IMF in Washington DC next week. He added that Hungary had not received formal prerequisites of EU/IMF talks and that it would need such written prerequisite. Lastly he commented that Hungary would make the legislative changes needed for EU/IMF
- JP Morgan was said to submit proposal to China Advisory Group to promote CNY currency overseas use. JPM proposed that CNY be used for European Investment Bank (EIB) investment and debt offering
- S&P commented on China and saw increasing risks for developers with a negative rating action on Chinese developers likely to rise over the next 6 months.
- UN Food & Agricultural Organization (FAO) reports Feb Food Price Index at 215.3 v 212.8 prior. The FAO lowered its 2012 world wheat production to 690M tons from 700M tons prior
Currencies:
- Risk appetite was switching into a higher gear throughout the European morning. The focus remained on the Greek PSI and also on the ECB monthly press conference.
- There were numerous factors attributed to the jubilant sentiment and this paved the way for a weaker USD and JPY currency against the European pairs. There was market chatter circulating of a higher PSI acceptance level after reports surfaced that the debt swap results would be released on Friday, March 9th at 06:00 GMT. Earlier today there were rumors of a potential China PBoC RRR cut and lastly a press report from Wed that the Fed officials was said to be considering a sterilization option for potential future bond purchases was getting further circulation this session.
- Risk appetite had momentum coming into the session after various EU officials suggested sufficient support for Greece PSI and the country would to be able to enforce CAC (collective action clauses).
- The ECB press conference was likely to have Draghi throw the ball back to EU govts for reforms after the central bank performed the second 3-year LTRO operation last month.
- The EUR/USD was holding above the 1.32 level as the NY morning approached while EUR/JPY cross tested 107.60

Political/ In the Papers:
- The ECB's Mersch was said to be the one favored to replace Gonzalez-Paramo. The press article noted that Mersch is backed by Germany, France and other members that include Finland, Austria and Netherlands. Naming Mersch to the post would mean supporting criticism voiced by Bundesbank's chief Jens Weidmann. He has stated the ECB very carelessly handed hundreds of billions of euros to ailing nations while accepting dubious guarantees in return.
- Following reports from the 6th of March that Spain had reached an agreement with its regions on budget cuts, Spain press circulated reports that the regions cannot meet the deficit targets.
- The Telegraph analyzes the private sector holders of Greece's debt. Of the estimated €206B in debt, hedge funds and retail investors may hold about €54B, Greek banks €42B, Greek social security funds €20B, other Greek domestic accounts €10B, other European banks €30B, European insurers €10B, other European institutions €15B, other overseas and miscellaneous holders €25B.
- Volumes in foreign currency trading declined to six-year lows, as investors have become increasingly nervous from trading the euro, and central banks continued to maintain a hold on the value of their currencies - FT
- The Irish statistics department announced that employment increased by 10,000 in Q4 of last year for the time since 2007 although the average employment level for the entire year was approximately 38,100 lower year-on-year.
***Looking Ahead***
- (IS) Israel Q4 Preliminary GDP Annualized: No est v 3.2% prior
- 6:00 (CL) Chile Feb CPI M/M: 0.2%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No est v 4.2% prior; CPI Ex Perishables & Fuel M/M: No est v 0.1% prior
- 6:00 (ZA) South Africa Jan Manufacturing Production M/M: No est v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.4% prior
- 6:00 (DE) Germany Jan Industrial Production M/M: +1.1%e v -2.9% prior; Y/Y: 1.1%e v 0.9% prior
- 6:30 (PL) Poland to sell up to PLN3.5B in 4.75% Oct 2016 Bonds
- 7:00 (UK) Bank of England (BOE) Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 0.50%; Maintain Asset Purchase Target unchanged at £325B
- 7:30 (US) Feb Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v 38.9% prior
- 7:45 (EU) ECB Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 1.00%
- 8:15 (CA) Canada Feb Housing Starts: 200Ke v 198.0K prior (revised from 197.9K)
- 8:30 (CA) Canada Jan New Housing Price Index M/M: 0.1%e v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 2.5% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 351ke v 351K prior; Continuing Claims: 3.40Me v 3.418M prior
- 8:30 (EU) ECB chief Draghi holds monthly post rate decision press Conference; March staff projections
- 9:00 (CA) Bank of Canada Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave Interest Rate unchanged at 1.00%
- 9:00 (MX) Mexico Feb Consumer Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior; Y/Y: 4.0%e vs. 4.1% prior; CPI Core M/M: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior
- 9:00 (BR) Brazil Jan CNI Capacity Utilization: 81.7%e v 81.3% prior
- 9:30 (US) Commercial Paper Outstanding
- 10:30 (US) Weekly EIA Natural Gas Inventories
- 12:00 (DE) Germany Fin Min Schaeuble attends podium on Theme of Europe: Berlin
- 15:00 (GR) Deadline for bond holders to participate in Greece PSI debt swap
- 16:00 (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index Y/Y: No est v 3.4% prior
- 18:00 (PE) Peru Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to leave the Reference Rateunchanged at 4.25%
- 20:30 (CN) China Feb Producer Price Index Y/Y: 0.1%e v 0.7% prior
- 20:30 (CN) China Feb Consumer Price Index Y/Y: 3.4%e v 4.5% prior Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing. Daily Forex Market News
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