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Friday, January 27, 2012

Forex Trade Talk 00:00 GMT 26 January 2012

Forex Trade Talk Updates continuously added to Forex Forum Key Items  US- Weekly Jobs, Durable Goods, New Home Sales.
The Fed held rates steady as expected. Focus was more on comments than rates. The Fed policy statement was dovish. Many of the pundits were wrong. Fed extended the period for exceptionally low rates through "at least LATE-2014" (from mid-2013).
Headline German Ifo survey data better than forecast. Conditions and Expectations Indices mixed. Markets sold EURUSD afterwards.
U.K. GDP data were a touch softer and the latest BOE Minutes were mixed and there fore less dovish than recently.
Australian Quarterly CPI data softer than forecast. A lot made of Japan trade deficit. Strong JPY and slack overseas export demand blamed. . 
Greek sovereign debt negotiations have broken down after bond interest rate impasse. A 4% coupon works out to about a 70% haircut for private holders, while 3.75% works out to 75% to 80% write-down. 
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? 
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge
EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 

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