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Showing posts with label January. Show all posts
Showing posts with label January. Show all posts

Sunday, June 17, 2012

::Eyes of gold for the first positive month since January - critical next week

June 16, 2012 16: 11 GMT  fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral Gold is significantly stronger at the end of trade this week with the metal precious progress of 2.09% to nearly $1626 in New York, marking its biggest weekly advance since the first week of June. The price of bullion has increased steadily throughout the week risk of major event of the week next with elections key in Greece and the decision of FOMC rate on tap. The rise in the price of gold is accompanied by a decrease in the value of the greenback which closed the week off the coast of 0.80% after the G20 leaders cited of the preparations for a coordinated global response counter offshore risk of a liquidity crunch that the actors of the market of weight the consequences of a Greek-euro exit.
All eyes will be fixed on the Greece this weekend at the head of voters return to the polls for parliamentary elections with the likely outcome determine the future of the countries of the Euro area. With the global central banks reaffirming their commitment to provide additional liquidity should the Greek vote rile markets, it is probably however will remain well supported as the injection of liquidity invites investors to move from currency fiat on inflation concerns. While the results of the election will weigh heavily on the broader risk appetite, which is more crucial to the prospects for gold are how major global central banks - the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank - to meet a disappointing outcome of the elections. Indeed, chatter, 14 June suggested that the g-20 leaders discussed a coordinated response around the world to help support the euro. While we suspect an important announcement over the weekend, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve policy offers clues where this can occur.
The decision of rate FOMC Wednesday, highlights the risk of event more important for the precious metal. With national economic data begins to soften even once, recent speech of the Fed officials suggests that there is a growing split within the Federal Reserve with respect to start a new round of easing quantitative or not. Thus, the implications of the FOMC decision next week for gold can be significant participants of the market begin to factor in the likelihood of more fed of relaxation. Look for the value of the dollar offers clarity with the dollar likely to come under substantial pressure should officials signal intention to intervene in markets to support the fragile recovery. Such a scenario would likely fuel a rally in gold that takes the precious metal through resistance key to $1628.
From a technical point of view, gold remains within dating descending channel training to senior February with the closing of the week price just below the confluence of the resistance of the chain and the tracing of Fibonacci 38.2% from February 29 down $1628. A breach of this level exposes the objectives of resistance to the confluence of the 50 day moving average and the tracing of 50% to $1659 and the moving average 200 days to $1675. Interim support is the responsibility of the tracing by 23.6% to $1590 and is supported by the lower $ 1545 of June. It is important to note that the month last gold has broken below trendline support dating back to 2008 with only a full commitment to ease more the Fed likely to rehabilitate the break. Look for prices to benchmarks in the coast of the evolution of the situation in Greece and the decision of rate FOMC increased speculation of more comprehensive Bank Central facilitating likely to keep many gold argued early next week.
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16 June 2012 16: 11 GMT

Monday, May 28, 2012

$$$ USDCAD January Pivot has for the moment

May 28, 2012 17: 48 GMT every day bars

The USDCAD almost reached the 1/9 of 10318 Friday before turning downward. Like all the rest, weakness of the USD must be regarded as contrary trend, but the spectrum of 5 waves 9799 place suggests additional inconvenience this week. Interim support is 10190 and strengthen support 10130/50.
LEVELS: 10070 10150 10190 10310 10425 10523

eliottWaves_usd-cad_body_usdcad.png, USDCAD January Pivot Holds For Now

Thursday, April 5, 2012

AUDUSD Trickles Lower – January Pivots in Focus

Focus remains on early year pivot lows at 10230 and 10145 (YTD low). As mentioned this morning, December pivots at 10043 and 9860 would come into play if ‘risk really falls out of bed’. 10145 intersects the downward sloping line that extends off of the 3/15 and 3/22 lows on Friday and being the YTD low, one would expect a reaction (short covering) if reached. Resistance for Thursday is 10290/10300.
Bottom Line (next 5 days) – lower

Friday, February 3, 2012

TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Spanish unemployment surges in January; China stresses that Europe must first address its structural issues before seeking outside assistance

Thursday, February 02, 2012 5:50:37 AM
 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Spanish unemployment surges in January; China stresses that Europe must first address its structural issues before seeking outside assistance
***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €2.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.6B prior; €486.4B parked in deposit facility vs. €472.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 2.5Be; Real Exports real M/M: +6.1% v -4.8% prior; Real Imports M/M: +7.6% v -8.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: 177.5K v 127.0Ke
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 23.4% v 20.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 17.1% v 15.1%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 7.0% v 9.8%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 51.4 v 52.5e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jan 27th: $504.0B v $499.7B prior
- EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e

Fixed Income: - (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €4.55B vs. €3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2015, 2016, 2017 Bonds
- Sold €2.25B in 4.0% July 2015 Bono ; Avg Yield 2.861% v 3.384% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.63x v 1.80x prior; Maximum Yield 2.989% v 3.576% prior
- Sells €984M in 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 3.455% v 4.029% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.57x v 3.2x; Max Yield 3.557% v 4.050% prior
- Sold €1.05 in 3.80% Jan 2017 Bono; Avg Yield 3.565% v 5.544% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.70x v 2.69x prior; Max Yield 3.704% v 5.560% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold approx €7.96B vs. €6.5-8.0B indicated range in 2018, 2020 and 2022 Bonds (OAT)
- Sold €1.01Bin 4.25% Oct 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 2.44% v 3.27% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.34x v 2.92x prior
- Sold €1.25B in 2.5% 2020 Bonds; Avg Yield 2.91% v 3.64% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.99x v 3.34x prior
- Sold €5.7B in new 3.0% April 2022 OAT; Avg Yield 3.13%; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield 7.85% v 8.19% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.97x v 1.58x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £1.25B in 0.125% I/L 2029 Gilts; Avg Yield -0.188%; Bid-to-cover:2.27 x
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Brazil posted its first trade deficit in 2 years in January
- Day 6 of the imminent Greek PSI deal
- Japanese officials continue verbal FX intervention
- Xstrata confirmed talks with Glencore; Rec'd approach regarding a merger of equals
- Spain Jan unemployment surges by 177K
- Spanish borrowing costs decline at 3-tranch bond auction
- China stresses that Europe must help itself first
Equities: FTSE 100 -0.20% at 5781, DAX +0.20% at 6626, CAC-40 flat at 3366, IBEX 35 at 8717, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 16,228, SMI -0.40% at 6045
- European shares erased gains during the session after drop in oil -related names offset the rally following merger talks between Xstrata and Glencore. Xstrata [XTA.UK] rallied over 12% after confirming that Glencore made an approach for a merger of equals. Glencore already owns 34% of Xstrata shares. However, overall earnings for European companies were disappointing.
- Among notable names, Shell [RSDA.NL] declined after missing its net adjusted profit. Company noted that earnings had been affected by a downturn in industry refining margins and natural gas prices. The downside move affected its peer BP. Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] also declined after reporting a decline in the Q4 profit as trading was adversely affected by the Eurozone debt crisis. Unilever [UNA.NL] also declined after noting that expect the external macro-economic environment to remain difficult in 2012 and input cost headwinds will persist
Speakers: - China Premier Wen commented that China was considering involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities and reiterated its view that it was important to resolve the European debt crisis. Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms
- German Chancellor Merkel commented from Beijing that China believed that Europe must do their 'homework' first regarding the crisis, then prepared to work for a stable euro
- Greece govt official commented that the bulk of discussions with EU/IMF/ECB Troika were basically completed but a few sticking points remain
- Germany BDB Banking Assoc President Schmitz stated that it must separate European monetary and fiscal policies to avoid a renewed crisis of confidence in the euro zone
- OECD chief Gurria commented that the ECB should purchase more bonds and contribute to cutting the Greek debt stock and cautioned that long term remedies would be doomed if the short-term issues are not addressed. He did note that Ireland's EU/IMF program was making good progress
- BoJ official Yamaguchi commented that the JPY currency has been appreciating recently although needed more time to assess market trend
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao commented that it needed to be unpredictable about forex interventions; Unreasonable for RBI to target inflation. He did concede that the RBI was biased toward containing inflation rather than managing growth.
- BoE's Posen commented in a radio interview that banks were not doing enough to support the economy
- Norway Fin Fin Johnsen commented that its economy was brighter compared to others but traditional exports did face challenge. He cautioned that banks must prepare for turmoil. Development in housing market were a concern as rising debt made sector 'extremely vulnerable' when interest rates go higher
- Italy minister said to have informed unions the gov't is to go ahead with labor refomrs regardless of agreement
- Moodys analyst Byrne commented that there was not much risk to Asian sovereign ratings in 2012
- S&P report noted that a Euro zone recession could end in late 2012 but the severity of recession was a 'close call'. The euro zone should gradually climb out of its mild recession in the second half of this year and into 2013. The core countries would likely lead the way back to growth, with other member countries delivering diverging performances. The S&P baseline forecast for 2012-2013 projected flat GDP growth for the euro zone as a whole in 2012 and 1% growth in 2013. S&P currently assigned a 60% probability to our baseline forecast, versus 40% for our alternative forecast of a true double dip. This would have a particularly adverse impact in countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy.
Currencies:
- The FX markets maintained its recent ranges as the risk appetite tried to continue maintaining its recent momentum.
- The EUR/USD still had difficulty to break above the 1.32 handle and tested lower following the Spanish unemployment data. The pair probed below the 1.3130 area but did steady a bit after the Spanish and French bond auction results. Dealers did note that 2-way flows were prevalent with a plethora of option-related orders. Comments by China Premier Wen that it was considering involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities while German Chancellor Merkel visited the country on a three-day State visit. Wen did clarify that Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms.
- The USD/JPY continued to hold above the 76.00 level with continued rhetoric from Japanese officials.
- The SNB still has yet to defend its 1.2000 floor in the EUR/CHF cross as speculators were performing the task for them. The cross was in the mid-1.20 area.
Political/ In the Papers:
- In an interview with the BBC, Bank of England's Posen said British banks are not doing enough to support the economy. He suggested that the banking sector needs more competition. In terms of policy, he supported the position that the UK would have been far worse without Quantitative Easing (QE).
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard made note on the differences between the IMF and EU with regards to Greece. There are risks that policy makers in Greece could resist the new demands being made by the Troika officials. Both Germany and the Netherlands are opposed to giving Greece any more money, amid recent reports that Greece's second rescue package might have to be raised by €15B.
On the topic of the Bundesbank's liability related to the EU debt crisis, he added that the central bank has about €250B in liabilities related to the euro zone system. The Bundesbank has already provided €496B to countries including Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. A large portion of Bundesbank's liabilities are related to the ECB's 'TARGET2' automatic payments network, which deals with transactions between national central banks. According to Professor Frank Westermann of Osnabruck University, the liabilities of the Bundesbank are approaching the 'danger point'. A break-up of the EU would present large risks to the German central bank.
- In Ireland, NAMA reported only one in five loans were performing, with approximately €18.8B in arrears. Its recent quarterly report indicates 83% of the non-performing loans are four months in arrears; the agency must now either restructure these loans or move against developers through the courts. Prior to being transferred to NAMA, the value of performing loans were valued at €56.1B against the current value of €18.8B. NAMA chairman Frank Daly and chief executive Brendan McDonagh stated the number of non-performing loans was likely to continue rising.
***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) NATO Defense Min meet in Brussels
- (EU) EU Commission Rehn meets Netherland PM Rutte and Fin Min De Jager
- (CN) German Chancellor Merkel continues official China visit
- (US) US Senate banking committee vote on additional Iranian sanctions
- (US) Jan ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior
- 6:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on Iran nuclear ban
- 6:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on Euro Bond resolution
- 6:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to XXX the Repo Rate from the current 0.75% level
- 7:30 (US) Jan Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v 30.6% prior
- 8:00 (IT) Unicredit presents 2012 Economic Outlook
- 8:00 (US) Feb RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 45.8 prior
- 8:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.8e%e v 2.3% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +0.8%e v -2.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 371Ke v 377K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v 3.554M prior
- 8:45 (US) ISM NY: No est v 51.1 prior
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
- 9:00 (UK) BOE member Posen
- 9:15 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): 3.535Me v 481.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly Natural Gas Inventories
- 19:15 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas
- 20:00 (CN) China Jan Non-manufacturing PMI: no est v 56.0 prior - 21:30 (CN) China Jan HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.5 prior
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Morning briefing: January 31, 2011 - 0704 GMT


GOOD MORNING!



EQUITIES
The US markets bounced back well their day's low to close slightly lower from yesterday. The Dow (12653.72) was down 0.05% and the NASDAQ (2811.94) what down 0.16%. Intelligentwalker, the bounce back on the Dow yesterday has happened from just above the 21-DMA (12518) support and so there is important resistance turned support near 12434. these levels will be key to watch for in the coming days.


In Asia, most except for Shanghai (2279.62, down 0.24%) and Singapore (2879.55, down 0.30%) which are trading lower of the markets are trading in the green. Nikkei (8818.55) is up 0.29%, Hong Kong (20330.36) is up 0.84% and Taiwan (7477.15) is up 0.94%. The Sensex (16863.30, down 370.68 points) and nifty (5087.30, down 117.40 points) tanked yesterday and could be gearing up for a sharp fall in the coming days/weeks.



ENERGY
NYMEX crude (99.49) remains within its 97.40 101.40 sideways range and we will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range.


Gold (1736) is continuing to trade above 1700 and remains bullish for a test of 1780-1800.


Silver (33.61) remains above 33 and is keeping up the chances of testing 35.00-50 on the upside.


Copper (3.83) is continuing to trade higher and is keeping up our bullish view intact for a test of 4.10-20 on the upside.



CURRENCIES
The euro (1.3186) failed to see a strong break below its 55-DMA (1.3103) and has bounced back well from its low of 1.3076 thereby keeping up the chances of testing 1.3250-3300 on the upside. Dollar-yen (76.26) has broken its 76.55-78.35 on the downside as expected and can now dip futher to 75.75. The Euro-Yen Cross (100.61) is bouncing back well from its 200-MA on the 4 hr chart and can test 103 if this bounce gains upside momentum to break above the 55-DMA (101.39).


Dollar-Swiss (0.9136) failed to see a strong rise past 0.9200 and is remains pressured on the downside for a test of 0.9050 on the downside. Cable (1.5735) has bounced back well from near 1.5650 and can test its important 1.5800-20 resistance region. Aussie test (1.0639) remains bullish and can 1.0735-50 on the upside.


In Asia, the Korean won is trading near 1124 and the sing dollar is trading near $ 1.2535. rupee has closed higher yesterday at 49.79/80. it can see a pull back today as the DOllar is trading weak now all over.



INTEREST RATES
In the US the 5yr yield what up 1bps to quote at 0.75% while the 10 yr yield what down 1bps to quote at 1.86%.


The German Bund yields were down yesterday. The 2 yr and 10 yr yields were down 2 bps and 7 bps to quote at 0.17% and 1.79% respectively.



DATA TODAY
23: 15 GMT or 4: 45 IST PMI JP
...Previous 50.2


23: 30 GMT or 5: 00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 4.5%...Previous 4.5%


9: 00 GMT or 14: 30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 10.4%...Previous 10.3%


13: 30 GMT or 19: 00 IST CA GDP
... Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.0%


14: 00 GMT or 19: 30 IST US case Schiller
...Expected - 3.2%...Previous - 3.4 %


15: 00 GMT or 20: 30 IST US cons CONF
...Expected 68.4...Previous 64.5



DATA YESTERDAY


Nov US PCE price index M/M
...Actual 0.0%...Previous 0.1%


Nov US personal income
...Actual 0.5%...Previous 0.1%

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Thursday, February 2, 2012

TradeTheNews.com European market update: Spanish unemployment rate surges in January; China stressed that Europe must first address of its structural problems before looking for help

Thursday, February 02, 2012 5:50:37 AM

 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: Spanish unemployment surges in January; China stresses that Europe must first address its structural issues before seeking outside assistance

***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €2.0B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.6B prior; €486.4B parked in deposit facility vs. €472.5B prior
- (BR) Brazil Jan FIPE CPI: 0.7% v 0.7%e
- (CH) Swiss Dec Trade Balance (CHF): 2.1B v 2.5Be; Real Exports real M/M: +6.1% v -4.8% prior; Real Imports M/M: +7.6% v -8.2% prior
- (ES) Spain Jan Net Unemployment M/M: 177.5K v 127.0Ke
- (HK) Hong Kong Dec Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 23.4% v 20.5%e; Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 17.1% v 15.1%e
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 7.0% v 9.8%e
- (NO) Norway Jan Unemployment Rate: 2.8% v 2.8%e
- (UK) Jan PMI Construction: 51.4 v 52.5e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jan 27th: $504.0B v $499.7B prior
- EU) Euro Zone Dec PPI M/M: -0.2% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 4.3% v 4.3%e


Fixed Income: >- (ES) Spain Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €4.55B vs. €3.5-4.5B indicated range in 2015, 2016, 2017 Bonds
- Sold €2.25B in 4.0% July 2015 Bono ; Avg Yield 2.861% v 3.384% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.63x v 1.80x prior; Maximum Yield 2.989% v 3.576% prior
- Sells €984M in 4.25% Oct 2016 Bono; Avg Yield 3.455% v 4.029% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.57x v 3.2x; Max Yield 3.557% v 4.050% prior
- Sold €1.05 in 3.80% Jan 2017 Bono; Avg Yield 3.565% v 5.544% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.70x v 2.69x prior; Max Yield 3.704% v 5.560% prior
- (FR) France Debt Agency (AFT) sold approx €7.96B vs. €6.5-8.0B indicated range in 2018, 2020 and 2022 Bonds (OAT)
- Sold €1.01Bin 4.25% Oct 2018 Oat; Avg Yield 2.44% v 3.27% prior; Bid-to-cover: 4.34x v 2.92x prior
- Sold €1.25B in 2.5% 2020 Bonds; Avg Yield 2.91% v 3.64% prior; Bid-to-cover: 3.99x v 3.34x prior
- Sold €5.7B in new 3.0% April 2022 OAT; Avg Yield 3.13%; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF50B in 12-Month Bills; Avg Yield 7.85% v 8.19% prior; Bid-to-cover:1.97x v 1.58x prior
- (UK) DMO sold £1.25B in 0.125% I/L 2029 Gilts; Avg Yield -0.188%; Bid-to-cover:2.27 x


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Brazil posted its first trade deficit in 2 years in January
- Day 6 of the imminent Greek PSI deal
- Japanese officials continue verbal FX intervention
- Xstrata confirmed talks with Glencore; Rec'd approach regarding a merger of equals
- Spain Jan unemployment surges by 177K
- Spanish borrowing costs decline at 3-tranch bond auction
- China stresses that Europe must help itself first


Equities: >FTSE 100 -0.20% at 5781, DAX +0.20% at 6626, CAC-40 flat at 3366, IBEX 35 at 8717, FTSE MIB -0.20% at 16,228, SMI -0.40% at 6045


- European shares erased gains during the session after drop in oil -related names offset the rally following merger talks between Xstrata and Glencore. Xstrata [XTA.UK] rallied over 12% after confirming that Glencore made an approach for a merger of equals. Glencore already owns 34% of Xstrata shares. However, overall earnings for European companies were disappointing.
- Among notable names, Shell [RSDA.NL] declined after missing its net adjusted profit. Company noted that earnings had been affected by a downturn in industry refining margins and natural gas prices. The downside move affected its peer BP. Deutsche Bank [DBK.DE] also declined after reporting a decline in the Q4 profit as trading was adversely affected by the Eurozone debt crisis. Unilever [UNA.NL] also declined after noting that expect the external macro-economic environment to remain difficult in 2012 and input cost headwinds will persist


Speakers: >- China Premier Wen commented that China was considering involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities and reiterated its view that it was important to resolve the European debt crisis. Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms
- German Chancellor Merkel commented from Beijing that China believed that Europe must do their 'homework' first regarding the crisis, then prepared to work for a stable euro
- Greece govt official commented that the bulk of discussions with EU/IMF/ECB Troika were basically completed but a few sticking points remain
- Germany BDB Banking Assoc President Schmitz stated that it must separate European monetary and fiscal policies to avoid a renewed crisis of confidence in the euro zone
- OECD chief Gurria commented that the ECB should purchase more bonds and contribute to cutting the Greek debt stock and cautioned that long term remedies would be doomed if the short-term issues are not addressed. He did note that Ireland's EU/IMF program was making good progress
- BoJ official Yamaguchi commented that the JPY currency has been appreciating recently although needed more time to assess market trend
- India Central Bank (RBI) Gov Subbarao commented that it needed to be unpredictable about forex interventions; Unreasonable for RBI to target inflation. He did concede that the RBI was biased toward containing inflation rather than managing growth.
- BoE's Posen commented in a radio interview that banks were not doing enough to support the economy
- Norway Fin Fin Johnsen commented that its economy was brighter compared to others but traditional exports did face challenge. He cautioned that banks must prepare for turmoil. Development in housing market were a concern as rising debt made sector 'extremely vulnerable' when interest rates go higher
- Italy minister said to have informed unions the gov't is to go ahead with labor refomrs regardless of agreement
- Moodys analyst Byrne commented that there was not much risk to Asian sovereign ratings in 2012
- S&P report noted that a Euro zone recession could end in late 2012 but the severity of recession was a 'close call'. The euro zone should gradually climb out of its mild recession in the second half of this year and into 2013. The core countries would likely lead the way back to growth, with other member countries delivering diverging performances. The S&P baseline forecast for 2012-2013 projected flat GDP growth for the euro zone as a whole in 2012 and 1% growth in 2013. S&P currently assigned a 60% probability to our baseline forecast, versus 40% for our alternative forecast of a true double dip. This would have a particularly adverse impact in countries like Spain, Portugal, and Italy.


Currencies:
- The FX markets maintained its recent ranges as the risk appetite tried to continue maintaining its recent momentum.
- The EUR/USD still had difficulty to break above the 1.32 handle and tested lower following the Spanish unemployment data. The pair probed below the 1.3130 area but did steady a bit after the Spanish and French bond auction results. Dealers did note that 2-way flows were prevalent with a plethora of option-related orders. Comments by China Premier Wen that it was considering involvement in EFSF and ESM facilities while German Chancellor Merkel visited the country on a three-day State visit. Wen did clarify that Europe must rely on itself and reduce its debt load and introduce structural reforms.
- The USD/JPY continued to hold above the 76.00 level with continued rhetoric from Japanese officials.
- The SNB still has yet to defend its 1.2000 floor in the EUR/CHF cross as speculators were performing the task for them. The cross was in the mid-1.20 area.


Political/ In the Papers:
- In an interview with the BBC, Bank of England's Posen said British banks are not doing enough to support the economy. He suggested that the banking sector needs more competition. In terms of policy, he supported the position that the UK would have been far worse without Quantitative Easing (QE).
- The Telegraph's Evans-Pritchard made note on the differences between the IMF and EU with regards to Greece. There are risks that policy makers in Greece could resist the new demands being made by the Troika officials. Both Germany and the Netherlands are opposed to giving Greece any more money, amid recent reports that Greece's second rescue package might have to be raised by €15B.
On the topic of the Bundesbank's liability related to the EU debt crisis, he added that the central bank has about €250B in liabilities related to the euro zone system. The Bundesbank has already provided €496B to countries including Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. A large portion of Bundesbank's liabilities are related to the ECB's 'TARGET2' automatic payments network, which deals with transactions between national central banks. According to Professor Frank Westermann of Osnabruck University, the liabilities of the Bundesbank are approaching the 'danger point'. A break-up of the EU would present large risks to the German central bank.
- In Ireland, NAMA reported only one in five loans were performing, with approximately €18.8B in arrears. Its recent quarterly report indicates 83% of the non-performing loans are four months in arrears; the agency must now either restructure these loans or move against developers through the courts. Prior to being transferred to NAMA, the value of performing loans were valued at €56.1B against the current value of €18.8B. NAMA chairman Frank Daly and chief executive Brendan McDonagh stated the number of non-performing loans was likely to continue rising.

***Looking Ahead***
- (EU) NATO Defense Min meet in Brussels
- (EU) EU Commission Rehn meets Netherland PM Rutte and Fin Min De Jager
- (CN) German Chancellor Merkel continues official China visit
- (US) US Senate banking committee vote on additional Iranian sanctions
- (US) Jan ICSC Chain Store Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.5% prior
- 6:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on Iran nuclear ban
- 6:00 (EU) EU Parliament votes on Euro Bond resolution
- 6:00 (ZA) South Africa Dec Electricity Consumption Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior; Electricity Production Y/Y: No est v 0.2% prior
- 7:00 (CZ) Czech Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to XXX the Repo Rate from the current 0.75% level
- 7:30 (US) Jan Challenger Job Cuts Y/Y: No est v 30.6% prior
- 8:00 (IT) Unicredit presents 2012 Economic Outlook
- 8:00 (US) Feb RBC Consumer Outlook Index: No est v 45.8 prior
- 8:00 (RO) Romania to sell Bonds
- 8:30 (US) Q4 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity: 0.8e%e v 2.3% prior; Unit Labor Costs: +0.8%e v -2.5% prior >- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims: 371Ke v 377K prior; Continuing Claims: No est v 3.554M prior
- 8:45 (US) ISM NY: No est v 51.1 prior
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Evans speaks to reporters in Chicago
- 9:00 (UK) BOE member Posen
- 9:15 (EU) EU Commissioner Rehn
- 10:00 (US) Fed Chairman Bernanke testifies before House Budget Committee
- 10:00 (DK) Denmark Jan Foreign Currency Reserves (DKK): 3.535Me v 481.7B prior
- 10:30 (US) Weekly Natural Gas Inventories
- 19:15 (US) Fed's Fisher speaks in Austin, Texas
- 20:00 (CN) China Jan Non-manufacturing PMI: no est v 56.0 prior >- 21:30 (CN) China Jan HSBC Services PMI: No est v 52.5 prior

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Forex trading talk 00: 00 GMT 20 January 2012



Forex trade talk continually added updates to Forex Forum key elements AU - PPI,. GB - retail, houses existing US - CA-CPI.

The session was corrections in the EUR macro funds allegedly pants EUR have been reduced. The last bed and anecdotal data have supported the view according to the view that market participants are the common currency short.

At the end of the fiscal year Japanese life insurance adaptation investment supposedly role also a.

Spanish and French auction results were Tuesday in general positive.

Greek Government bonds are an important subject of negotiations. The proposal for the holders of Greek debt is for 15 cents on the dollar in bar and 35 cents in a new 30 yr bond. Not all debt owners are satisfied with this proposal, but there are reports of progress.

The week ahead year sees Lunar New anniversaries. Chinese markets are closed all week.

Saturday she sees South Carolina Presidential primary. A clear Romney victory would ensure about the Republican nomination. A loss would move the process on, on.

Check the Forex Forum throughout the day for a updated and on-going discussion of current trade issues in the market CHATTER continuous discussion thread.

Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads

Some traders focused attention the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. two years moved much).

Raw materials and commodity currencies


Click on the diagram to enlarge

SHARES & INTEREST RATES

Bonds are a brand to risk, investment must be financed. When money (higher interest rates) moves the costs, the return and charm the risk falls trade like stocks.

See economic calendar for a complete list of future Forex market events and data of analyst consensus. Go to the Forex Forum for current market developments and technical trading ideas.

John M. Bland is an author, and co-founder and partner of the Global View.com. Prior to global View.com was just service in New York City a Forex trader and a private-label Forex analyst for a top-fed. He was a member of Forex consultant and worked in international liability management of a significant n.y. money Center Bank. John has an MBA from the University of California, Berkeley and a Bachelor of Arts in international economics from the school.

The information on the global point of view, its Forex Inc. analysis bases from sources which it believes reliable, but global point of view, Inc. won guaranteed not the accuracy, reliability, timeliness or completeness of the information, content, views, opinions, recommendations or services include, distributed is, linked, downloaded or from the global-view Web site-services access and use of the information provided on this Web site is at your own risk. Global view provides in particular that there be no investment advice or advocate any purchase, sale or trade.

Do you point of view, Inc. opinions expressed at the Forum pages not necessarily reflect global In the use of the forums, you should not assume that all messages made available by global - view, inc., have tested or such communications contain correct information, global point of view, Inc. Dispose claims any warranty, whether express or implied, including, without limitation, the warranties of merchantability and fitness for a particular purpose with respect to the service or materials and products. None presented material on our website should be regarded as investment advice.

In no event will global point of view, Inc. And other content providers, shall be liable for direct, indirect, incidental, punitive or consequential damages of any kind in relation to the service, the materials and the products.

Copyright 2012 global-view.com

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Global-view D.O.G. Index 11:00 GMT 27 January 2012

10:40 GMT (Global-View.com) January 27- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Friday in North America at .5143, -0.28% from its Thursday close (-4.41% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7690, -0.15% (-0.31% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1670, +0.12% (-17.67% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4445, -0.41% (-8.85% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).


D.O.G. Homepage


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 25, 2011 U.S. Close

19:45 GMT (Global-View.com) January 24- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Tuesday in North America at .5210, +0.45% from its Monday close (-3.16% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7766, +0.34% (-0.21% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1729, +0.67% (-14.79% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4505, +0.87% (-7.63% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 23, 2011 U.S. Open

10:40 GMT (Global-View.com) January 23- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Monday in North America at .5219, -0.05% from its Friday close (-2.99% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7779, -0.01% (-0.03% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1722, -0.48% (-15.15% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4533, +0.07% (-7.05% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 20, 2011 U.S. Close

(Global-View.com) January 20- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Friday in North America at .5221, +0.20% from its Thursday close (-2.95% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7782, +0.02% (+0.01% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1731, -0.50% (-14.67% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4518, +1.68% (-7.36% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 24, 2012 U.S. Open

10:20 GMT (Global-View.com) January 24- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Tuesday in North America at .5195, +0.16% from its Monday close (-3.45% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7748, +0.12% (-0.43% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1722, +0.28% (-15.11% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4478, +0.27% (-8.17% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-view d.o.g. index 20 January 2011 US Open


Back to the headlines
Share of this story: | | Email 10: 35 GMT (Global View.com) January 20-the global-investor buying power index opening Friday in North America at. 5231 View.com d.o.g. (dollar, oil, gold), Thursday close + 0.38% of his (- 2.77% compared to end of 2010).

USD Forex buying power index is as for his important subcomponents,.7800, + 0.25% (0.24% compared to end of 2010). The Forex index is, that value will be charged against the top six trading currencies.

Against gold, the USD is worth purchasing power index,.1749, + 0.54% (- 13.78% YTD).

Raw, it is 0.4485, + 0.95% (-8.03% end of 2010). D.o.g. index base is 1.00. It is measured by levels of early 1999, as the introduction of the euro (currency).

D.o.g. home page


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 26, 2012 U.S. Close

19:45 GMT (Global-View.com) January 26- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Thursday in North America at .5156, -0.24% from its Wednesday close (-4.17% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7711, -0.15% (-0.91% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1668, -0.15% (-17.77% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4464, -0.16% (-8.48% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 25, 2012 U.S. Close

20:30 GMT (Global-View.com) January 25- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Wednesday in North America at .5173, -0.70% from its Tuesday close (-3.84% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7733, -0.41% (-0.63% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1685, -2.55% (-16.96% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4471, -0.76% (-8.33% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 25, 2012 U.S. Open

10:15 GMT (Global-View.com) January 25- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Wednesday in North America at .5224, +0.27% from its Tuesday close (-2.90% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7781, +0.21% (-0.01% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1734, +0.27% (-14.55% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4532, +0.59% (-7.08% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

D.O.G. Homepage


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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 26, 2012 U.S. Open

10:35 GMT (Global-View.com) January 26- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Thursday in North America at .5150, -0.35% from its Wednesday close (-4.27% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7896, -0.34% (-1.10% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1679, -0.34% (-17.25% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4454, -0.38% (-8.68% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 30, 2012 U.S. Close

20:25 GMT (Global-View.com) January 30- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Monday in North America at .5148, +0.36% from its Friday close (-4.32% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7681, +0.31% (-1.30% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1666, +0.28% (-17.91% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4513, +0.66% (-7.47% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 30, 2012 U.S. Open

10:45 GMT (Global-View.com) January 30- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is opening Monday in North America at .5155, +0.49% from its Friday close (-4.19% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7693, +0.47% (-1.15% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1674, +0.79% (-17.49% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4502, +0.41% (-7.69% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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Global-View D.O.G. Index January 27, 2011 U.S. Close

19:45 GMT (Global-View.com) January 27- The Global-View.com D.O.G. (Dollar, Oil, Gold) investor purchasing power index is ending Friday in North America at .5132, -0.48% from its Thursday close (-4.61% vs. end-2010).

As for its key subcomponents, the USD forex purchasing power index is .7663, -0.67% (-1.53% vs. end-2010). The forex index is value is calculated against the top six trading currencies.


Against gold, the USD purchasing power index is worth .1661, -0.44% (-18.14% ytd).


Against crude, it is at 0.4483, +0.44% (-8.07% end-2010). The D.O.G. Index base is 1.00. It is measured against levels from the start of 1999, as of the initial launch of the euro (currency).

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