Forex Trade Talk 11:00 GMT 24 January 2012

Forex Trade Talk Updates continuously added to Forex Forum Key Items  CA- Retail Sales. US- Richmond Fed.
EUR short-covering again evident early Tuesday. Today the trigger was better than expected EZ flash PMI data. Also vague unconfirmed chatter about possible activity in the EURJPY cross. Oftentimes fundamental news can be a trigger for price moves that had to happen anyway.
The Asian session was subdued by the ongoing Lunar New Year observations. 
Greek sovereign debt negotiations appear to have hit an impasse over the interest rate on the bonds set to replace existing ones. A 4% coupon works out to a 65% to 70% haircut for private holders while 3.75% works out to 75% to 80% write-down. Recall discussions started with a 20% write-down about a year ago..
Chinese markets are closed all week for the Lunar New Year. 
End of fiscal year Japanese life insurance investment adjustment activity coming into focus? 
Check the Forex Forum over the day for an updated and ongoing discussion of current trading themes in the MARKET CHATTER continuous discussion thread.
Forex pairs vs 2-yr note spreads
Some traders focus intently on the Japan vs. U.S. 2-yr note spread (only the U.S. 2-yr moves much).
COMMODITIES and Commodity Currencies

Click on Chart to Enlarge
EQUITIES & INTEREST RATES
Bonds are a counter to risk trades because risk investments must be financed. When the cost of money moves up (higher interest rates), the return and allure of risk trades such as equities falls. 
See ECONOMIC CALENDAR for a complete list of future forex market events and consensus data estimates. Go to the forex forum for up-to-date market developments and technical trading ideas.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a forex trader and a private-label forex analyst for a top Fed watching service in NYC. He has been a corporate forex advisor and also worked in international liability management for a major N.Y. money center bank. John holds an MBA from the University of California at Berkeley and a B.A. in International Economics from that school.
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