GOOD MORNING!
EQUITIES
World
World MSCI (1246) continue to maintain the uptrend started since the last week of Nov’11. As mentioned earlier, we see a crucial resistance coming up at 1300 and if it holds, we can see 1200 on the downside.
Euro area
STOXX50 (2436) came off by 23pts on Friday. Our support at 2400 is yet to be tested. However if it fails to break above 2500 then the chances are high that it can come below 2400. We have to wait for the outcome of EU leaders meeting in Brussels today.
US
The US quarterly GDP expanded by 2.8% for ending Dec’11 as released on Friday. This is the highest quarterly growth since Q2 2010 despite of 4% drop in Fiscal consumption and investment. The consumption expenditure on durables has increase by 14% in real terms will definitely increase the industrial output in near future. Note, the investment on fixed capital formation especially on non residential is yet to accelerate.
Dow (12660), we continue to see the resistance at 12800-13000; if it breaks above this then Dow can test October 2007 high at 14066 by one month (under optimistic assumptions).
India
Sensex has performed well last week and rallied to close above 17,233. It may test 17500 this week.
COMMODITIES
NYmex Crude (99.01) is not gaining strength to see a strong break above 100 and has been ranged between 97.40-101.40 over the last couple of weeks. We will have to wait for a breakout of this 97.40-101.40 sideways range.
Gold (1733.30) has risen above 1700 and is now bullish for a test of 1780-1800 with good Support in 1700-1675 region.
Silver (33.60) is continuing to trade higher can test 35.00-50 on the upside.
Copper (3.83) has come off from its high of 3.93. It has immediate Support near current levels at 3.80 and the broader picture is bullish for a test of 4.10-20.
CURRENCIES
The Euro (1.3185) has come off from Friday's high of 1.3234. It has good Support in 1.3135-00 region which if holds can take it up towards 1.3350 or even 1.3500 this week. Dollar-Yen (76.73) is trading just above the lower end of its 76.55-78.35 sideways range. We expect a downside breakout of this sideways range which can pull it further down to 75.75 or even 75.15. We will have to wait for a breakout. The Euro-Yen Cross (101.16) is not gaining strength to rise past its 55-DMA Resistance (101.47) and can test 100.20-00 while below this 55-DMA.
Dollar-Swiss (0.9144) is trading below the 100-DMA (0.9154) and can fall to 0.9075-50 while below this 100-DMA. Cable (1.5715) has risen above 1.5700 and can rise further towards 1.5780-5820 which is an important Resistance region to be watched on the upside. Aussie (1.0596) has come off from its high of 1.0688. With strong Supports at 1.0500 and then iin 1.0425-00 region, and with a bullish breakout of a Wedge on the chart, the long term outlook is very bullish for the pair for a rise to 1.1900-2100.
In Asia, the Korean-Won is trading near 1124 and the Sing-Dollar is trading near 1.2534. DOllar-Rupee had closed lower on Friday at 49.31/32. With Resistance at 49.55, a test of 49.10-00 is possible.
INTEREST RATES
Yields on German bunds inched up to 0.19% (+1bps) against fall in 10Y to 1.85% (-1bps). Note, Italian, French and Spanish 10Y yields came off significantly to 5.89% (-15bps), 3.03% (-6bps) and 4.96% (24bps) during last trading.
US treasuries, 5Y and 10Y yields are down at 0.74 (-1bps) and 1.87 (-2bps) respectively at present Japanese trading hours.
DATA TODAY
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST Nov US PCE Price Index M/M
...Expected 0.2% ...Previous 0.1%
13:30 GMT or 19:00 IST Nov US Personal Income
...Expected 0.5% ...Previous 0.1%
FRIDAY'S DATA
US GDP Q4 '12 (Adv)
...Actual 2.8% ...Previous 1.8%
No comments:
Post a Comment