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Friday, February 3, 2012

Morgen Briefing: 30. Januar 2011 - 0358 GMT



Good morning!



SHARES
World
MSCI World (1246) continue the upward trend since last week of Nov 11 started. As mentioned above, we see 1300 come a critical resistance and if it continues, we see on the other 1200.


Euro area
By 23pts, STOXX (2436) came on Friday. Our support at 2400 is yet to be tested. However fails it is about 2500 break then chances are high that it can come under 2400. We have to wait until the result of today's meeting in Brussels of the heads of State and Government.


US
Quarterly GDP 11, when released on Friday extended the United States 2.8% for the Nov of end of. This is the highest quarterly growth since Q2 2010 despite the 4% decline in the fiscal consumption and investment. Has the consumption expenditure for commodities rises to 14% in real terms is to increase in industrial production in the near future. Note that the investment on fixed investment mainly to not living remains to accelerate.


Dow (12660), we continue to see the resistance at 12800 13000; If it can about these breaks Dow October 2007 high test 14066 one month (under optimistic assumptions).


India
Sensex conducted last week well and collected about 17.233 close. 17500, It can test this week.



RAW MATERIAL
NYmex strength to see crude oil (99,01), a strong break over 100 not WINS and has so far ranging from 97, 40 101.40 in the last few weeks. We have to wait until an outbreak of this range of 97, 40 101.40 sideways.


Gold (1733.30) has gone up about 1700 and is now bullish for a test of 1780-1800 with good support in 1700-1675-region.


Silver-(33,60) trading continues to be higher 35, 00-50, on the other hand can test.


Copper (3.83) has come from its high of 3.93. It has immediate support close to current levels at 3.80 and the overall picture is bullish for a test of 4.10-20.



CURRENCIES
Euro (1.3185) has come from Friday the peak of 1.3234, from. It has good support in the region that holds if 1.3135-00 can take you in the direction of 1.3350 or even 1.3500 this week. Dollar-yen (76.73) is just above the bottom of the side reach 76, 55-78, 35 trade. We expect a disadvantage outbreak of this range sideways that may later be 75.75 or even 75.15. We have to wait until an outbreak. The Euro-Yen Cross (101.16) is not dynamic past his 55-DMA resistance WINS (101.47) can rise and 100.20-00 while test below this 55-DMA.


Dollar-Swiss (0.9144) is the trade can fall under the 100 DMA (0.9154) and 0.9075 50 while beneath this 100 DMA. Cable (1.5715) over 1,5700 increased and may continue to rise in the direction of 1.5780-5820 is an important region resistance on the other side are observed. Aussie (1.0596) has come from its high of 1.0688 from. With strong supports for 1.0500 and then IIN 1.0425-00 region and a bullish breakout a wedge on the chart is the long-term prospects very bullish for the pair for a climb to the 1.1900-2100.


In Asia, the Korean won is trading close to 1124 and the sing dollar trade in the vicinity of 1.2534. DOllar rupee had on Friday at 49.31 / 32 is lower. With resistance at 49,55, a test of 49.10-00 is possible.



INTEREST
Yields on German Federal bonds crept up to 0.19% (+ 1 bps) against decline in Anadarko, 1.85% (-1 FPS). Note, Italian, French and Spanish 10Y yields significantly 5.89% (15 fps), 3.03% (-6 bps) and 4.96% (24 fps) broke away during the last trade.


Yields decrease U.S. treasuries, 5Y and Anadarko 0.74 (-1 FPS) and 1.87 (-2 bps) or to the today's Japanese trading hours.



DATA TODAY
13: 30 GMT or 19: 00 IST Nov US PCE price index M/M
...Expected 0.2%...Previous: 0.1 %


13: 30 GMT or 19: 00 IST US personal income Nov
...Expected 0.5%...Previous: 0.1 %



FRIDAY'S DATA
US GDP Q4 12 (Adv)
...Actual 2.8%...Previous 1.8 %

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