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Friday, February 3, 2012

Morning briefing: January 31, 2011 - 0704 GMT


GOOD MORNING!



EQUITIES
The US markets bounced back well their day's low to close slightly lower from yesterday. The Dow (12653.72) was down 0.05% and the NASDAQ (2811.94) what down 0.16%. Intelligentwalker, the bounce back on the Dow yesterday has happened from just above the 21-DMA (12518) support and so there is important resistance turned support near 12434. these levels will be key to watch for in the coming days.


In Asia, most except for Shanghai (2279.62, down 0.24%) and Singapore (2879.55, down 0.30%) which are trading lower of the markets are trading in the green. Nikkei (8818.55) is up 0.29%, Hong Kong (20330.36) is up 0.84% and Taiwan (7477.15) is up 0.94%. The Sensex (16863.30, down 370.68 points) and nifty (5087.30, down 117.40 points) tanked yesterday and could be gearing up for a sharp fall in the coming days/weeks.



ENERGY
NYMEX crude (99.49) remains within its 97.40 101.40 sideways range and we will have to wait for a breakout of this sideways range.


Gold (1736) is continuing to trade above 1700 and remains bullish for a test of 1780-1800.


Silver (33.61) remains above 33 and is keeping up the chances of testing 35.00-50 on the upside.


Copper (3.83) is continuing to trade higher and is keeping up our bullish view intact for a test of 4.10-20 on the upside.



CURRENCIES
The euro (1.3186) failed to see a strong break below its 55-DMA (1.3103) and has bounced back well from its low of 1.3076 thereby keeping up the chances of testing 1.3250-3300 on the upside. Dollar-yen (76.26) has broken its 76.55-78.35 on the downside as expected and can now dip futher to 75.75. The Euro-Yen Cross (100.61) is bouncing back well from its 200-MA on the 4 hr chart and can test 103 if this bounce gains upside momentum to break above the 55-DMA (101.39).


Dollar-Swiss (0.9136) failed to see a strong rise past 0.9200 and is remains pressured on the downside for a test of 0.9050 on the downside. Cable (1.5735) has bounced back well from near 1.5650 and can test its important 1.5800-20 resistance region. Aussie test (1.0639) remains bullish and can 1.0735-50 on the upside.


In Asia, the Korean won is trading near 1124 and the sing dollar is trading near $ 1.2535. rupee has closed higher yesterday at 49.79/80. it can see a pull back today as the DOllar is trading weak now all over.



INTEREST RATES
In the US the 5yr yield what up 1bps to quote at 0.75% while the 10 yr yield what down 1bps to quote at 1.86%.


The German Bund yields were down yesterday. The 2 yr and 10 yr yields were down 2 bps and 7 bps to quote at 0.17% and 1.79% respectively.



DATA TODAY
23: 15 GMT or 4: 45 IST PMI JP
...Previous 50.2


23: 30 GMT or 5: 00 IST JP Unemp
...Expected 4.5%...Previous 4.5%


9: 00 GMT or 14: 30 IST EU Unemp
...Expected 10.4%...Previous 10.3%


13: 30 GMT or 19: 00 IST CA GDP
... Expected 0.2%...Previous 0.0%


14: 00 GMT or 19: 30 IST US case Schiller
...Expected - 3.2%...Previous - 3.4 %


15: 00 GMT or 20: 30 IST US cons CONF
...Expected 68.4...Previous 64.5



DATA YESTERDAY


Nov US PCE price index M/M
...Actual 0.0%...Previous 0.1%


Nov US personal income
...Actual 0.5%...Previous 0.1%

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