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Tuesday, February 7, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Murky outlook for tomorrow's RBA meeting; No deal in Greece brings risk aversion back into the markets

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- (AU) AUSTRALIA DEC M/M: -0.1% V 0.2%E; Q4 RETAIL SALES EX-INFLATION Q/Q: 0.4% V 0.6%E >- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN ANZ JOB ADVERTISEMENTS M/M: 6.0% V -0.9% PRIOR (largest gain in 2-years)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.2% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 2.2% V 2.4% PRIOR
- (UK) UK JAN LLOYDS EMPLOYMENT CONFIDENCE INDEX: -73 V -75 PRIOR
- (ID) INDONESIA Q4 GDP CONSTANT PRICE Q/Q: -1.3% V -1.5%E; Y/Y: 6.5% V 6.5%E
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +1.0%
- S&P/ASX +1.1%
- Kospi -0.2%
- Taiwan Taiex -0.7%
- Singapore Straits Times +1.2%
- Shanghai Composite +0.1%
- Hang Seng +0.3%
- S&P Futures -0.3% at 1,334
- April gold -0.2% at $1,737/oz
- March Crude -0.5% at $97.32
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets started the session off positive on the back of strong US payroll numbers before the Kospi and Taiex slipped into negative territory. Shanghai Composite also flirted to the downside, London copper, March silver and April gold eased lower with the looming deadline for Greece to reach terms for a new bailout deal and no resolution reached over the weekend. Greece PM is in meetings with members of the Govt over another round of cuts, and meetings continue with the Troika. Risk aversion was also heightened with the worsening situation in Syria and Iran. Australian data was mixed with ANZ job ads at a 2 year high and December retail sales falling 0.1% m/m, which gives a conflicting outlook for tomorrow's RBA rate decision. Sydney Morning Herald expects that the RBA will keep rates on hold, while the general consensus is for another 25bps rate cut which would be in line with prior indications. AUD/USD fell to $1.0708 from highs around $1.7080 on some risk aversion from Europe and the unclear RBA rate decision for tomorrow after mixed data. USD/JPY had a quiet session in a 30 pip range from ¥76.80-76.50, EUR/JPY saw a bit more action ¥100.77-100.18. EUR/USD opened lower before falling more than 70 pips to the $1.3080 level. USD gained against the emerging markets, with the Philippines peso gaining on the back of comments from Treasurer Tan.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (HK) According to Midland Realty secondary market transactions were at a 21-week high with 33 v 22 last week - HK Standard
- (CN) IMF releases China outlook report: China's inflation is falling to more comfortable levels as the property market is deflating
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Shirakawa: Will take appropriate policy action as needed; Realizes that the yen level is severe
- (CN) China may post a trade deficit in January due to the week long Lunar New Year holiday - China Securities Journal
- (CN) China Premier Wen: China needs to support Europe due to strategic considerations - Chinese press

***Equities***
- NTT: Reports 9-month Net ¥359.2B v ¥458B y/y, Op Profit ¥1.01T v ¥1.1T y/y, Rev ¥7.78T v ¥7.54T y/y >- Mitsubishi Motors, 7211.JP: Looking to end auto production in Europe by 2013 - Japanese press
- EXT.AU: Expected to receive an offer from China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation offers A$2.2B; formal offer to come no later than early March - The Australian
- Samsung Electronics, 005930.KR: Believes it can convince EU regulators that no antitrust violations took place regarding the use of its mobile patents - Korean press
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (AU) Newcastle Coal Exports -18.0% v -11.6% prior in week ended Feb 6th
- (KR) South Korea MoF sells KRW1.4T of 3-yr bonds at 3.41%
- (AU) Construction, Forestry, Mining and Energy Union (CFMEU) will go ahead with strikes in 7 Bowen Basin in Queensland for around 1-week - Australian press
- (AU) Australia Dalrymple Coal terminal JAN throughput 4.15M tons, -21.8% m/m; Abbot Point coal terminal JAN throughput 1.16M tons, +11.1% m/m ; Hay Point JAN throughput 3.46M tons, +26% m/m
- (IR) Iran's Revolutionary Guard said to have held joint military and naval exercises this weekend as a show of force opposing sanctions from the West - financial press

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