Japanese Yen reversal shape in the middle of divergence in policy Outlook on

Grundsätzliche Prognose für japanische Yen: Baisse
Der japanische Yen gegenüber dem U.S.-Gegenstück inmitten der stärker als erwartete BIP Bericht aus der weltweit größten Volkswirtschaft geschwächt, und die USDJPY kann weiterhin den Ausverkauf von Anfang dieses Monats nachvollziehen, wie die Federal Reserve Weg von seiner Lockerung Zyklus bewegt. Obwohl das FOMC allgemein erwartet, beizubehalten, daß ihre aktuelle Politik im August, die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik sein könnte, sollten die Spiel-Wechsler für die Dollar-Yen weiter der Ausschuss sich Spekulationen für eine neue Runde der quantitativen Lockerung zu sprechen.
Wie der Vorbericht 2Q BIP für die USA, die Aussichten für Wachstum und Inflation löst, die Fed weiterhin seine Tauben Ton für die Geldpolitik zu mildern und die Zentralbank kann über den Rest des Jahres ein Wait-and-See-Konzept unterstützen, wie politische Entscheidungsträger ein gedeckten Risiko für einen Double-Dip Rezession sehen. Im Gegensatz dazu, es scheint, als ob die Bank of Japan weiterhin auf seine Lockerung Zyklus als neues Vorstandsmitglied zu beginnen, die Takahide Kiuchi verpflichtet sich wird, neue Formen der monetären Unterstützung betrachten und die größere Abweichung in der Politik-Outlook kann eine Hausse Bewegung in die USDJPY Sporn, wie die US-Notenbank besser positionierten normalisieren Geldpolitik vor die BoJ bleibt. Jenseits der Zinssatz Entscheidung der mit Spannung erwartete US Non-Farm Payrolls-Bericht wird voraussichtlich Beschäftigung erhöht ein weiteres 100 K im Juli die 80 K-Expansion nach vorheriger Monat zeigen, und die schnellere Wachstumsrate Stelle kann letztlich eine sinnvolle Bewegung nach oben für die USDJPY produzieren, wie es Erwartungen für QE3 dämpft. Obwohl wir noch sehen verlaufenden Kanals nach unten in die USDJPY gerade, scheint die Baisse Dynamik als die relative Stärke Index Rebounds vor überverkauft Territorium spitz zulaufenden werden deaktiviert. Als Ergebnis der Dollar-Yen könnte setzen in einem kurzfristigen Boden wie wir in den letzten Tagen des Juli fahren, und das Paar für eine Hausse Breakout grundiert, sieht als die Fed bereitet wechseln Getriebe. -DS
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The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report

The Canadian Dollar Outlook Hinges On BoC Rate Decision, Policy Report
Analyst 14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT 

undamentale Prognose für Gold: Baisse
Der kanadische Dollar gewann an Boden gegen Gegenstück U.S. inmitten den Rebound in Gefahr Gefühl kann, doch die Loonie zu behaupten die Bank of Canada einen vorsichtigen Ausblick für die Region Streik sollte nächste Woche. Das BoC Zinssatz Entscheidung das größte Ereignisrisiko für die folgende Woche zeigt, wie Gouverneur Mark Carney sich Spekulationen für höhere Fremdkapitalkosten spricht, aber Marktteilnehmer weiter können, zurück zu skalieren Wetten für eine Zinsanhebung die Staatsschulden-Krise weiterhin eine Bedrohung für die Region darstellen.
Tatsächlich Gouverneur Carney machte zahlreiche Versuche, auf den Datensatz Anstieg der Haushaltsverschuldung zu sprechen, und vielleicht sehen wir die Zentralbank Kopf weiterhin die Idee für eine mögliche Zinserhöhung inmitten Ängste vor einer Immobilienblase zu schweben. Obwohl wir Lichtblicke in der kanadischen Wirtschaft sehen, beschränkten die BoC Gesichter Bereich um das Normalisieren Geldpolitik inmitten der anhaltenden Turbulenzen in Europa. Dadurch können wir die Zentralbank seine warten-and-See-Ansatz in 2013 tragen sehen. In einer Umfrage von Bloomberg News Übernachtung alle der 22 Ökonomen Befragten Prognose BoC Zinssatz 1,00 % halten, während den Marktteilnehmern die Zentralbank Festhalten an seiner warten-and-See-Ansatz über die nächsten 12 Monate laut Credit Suisse finden Sie unter Index Swaps.
Zur gleichen Zeit werden wir genau verfolgt werden den vierteljährlichen geldpolitischen Bericht due out am 18. Juli wie die Zentralbank ihre aktualisierten Prognose für Wachstum und Inflation sowie den Bericht mein Highlight eine geschwächte Outlook für die Region präsentieren wird wie die USA – Kanadas größter Handelspartner – eine Verlangsamung Erholung steht. Wiederum die frische Charge der Zentralbank Rhetorik kann dämpfen die Beschwerde mit dem kanadischen Dollar, aber der Verbraucherpreis-Bericht vom Fass für Freitag erneuere Spekulation für höhere Kreditkosten wie die Kern-Rate der Inflation erwartet wird, um im schnellsten Tempo für 2012 zu erweitern. Als die USDCAD weiterhin über die 78.6 % Fibonacci-Retracement aus der 2007 halten, niedrig, die 2009 um hohe 1.0100-10, wir sehen weiterhin, dass das Paar eine kurzfristige Basis um die Kennzahl aufbauen und die technische Perspektiven flößt eine Hausse Voreingenommenheit für die Dollar-Loonie als der relative Stärke Index Pausen heraus von den Abwärtstrend. Wiederum eine ganze Reihe von Leitzinssenkung Kommentare von BoC einen anderen laufen bei 1.0400 auslösen kann, und frische 2012 Höhen des Wechselkurses können wir sehen, wie er sich ein höheres tief im Juli schnitzt. -DS
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14. Juli 2012 00:00 GMT

Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

Japanese,Outlook,remains,bullish

12 July 2012 12:55 GMT Talking Points
Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP Euro: ECB Maintains Dovish Tone, Raising Bets For Rate Cut In August
The Euro tumbled to a fresh yearly low of 1.2169 amid the weakening outlook for the region, and the pair may continue to track lower over the remainder of the week as the European Central Bank strikes a dovish tone for monetary policy. Indeed, the ECB warned that the downside risks for the region ‘have materialized’ in its monthly report, and went onto say that the fundamental outlook remains clouded by ‘heightened uncertainty’ as European policy makers struggle to stem the risk for contagion.
In turn, ECB board member Jozef Makuch said that the central bank ‘will use all the tools it has already used or new measures’ to shore up the ailing economy, and it seems as though the Governing Council is leaning towards a zero interest rate policy (ZIRP) as the region faces a threat for a prolonged recession. As the downward trend in the EURUSD continues to take shape, we will maintain our bearish forecast for the pair, and the euro-dollar looks poised to give back the rebound from 2010 (1.1875) as market participants expect to see lower borrowing costs in Europe. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are now pricing an 83% chance for a 25bp rate cut at the August 2 meeting, and we should see the Governing Council continue to embark on its easing cycle as growth and inflation falter.
British Pound: Eyes June Low Ahead Of BoE Minutes, 50.0% Fib In Focus
The British Pound continued to consolidate on Thursday, with the GBPUSD slipping to a fresh weekly low of 1.5432, and the sterling may continue to give back the rebound from 1.5268 as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. We may see the GBPUSD continue to trade within a broad range as it remains supported by the 50.0% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 low to high around 1.5270, but the Bank of England Minutes on tap for the week ahead may produce a meaningful move in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy. Until then, we should see risk trends continue to dictate price action for the GBPUSD, and the pair may weaken further over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety picks up.
U.S. Dollar: Index Breaks Out Of Range Ahead Of China GDP
The near-term outlook for the greenback remains bullish as the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) breaks out of the range-bound price action carried over from the previous month, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as market sentiment falters. As China’s 2Q GDP report comes into focus, we’re expecting to see growth expand at the slowest pace since 2009, fears of a ‘hard landing’ may continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and the short-term rally in the dollar may gather pace in the coming days as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.  

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

Dollar,Breakout,Beginning

12 July 2012 15:30 GMT

 Retail FX trading crowds are now nearly their most aggressively net-long the US Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) against the Japanese Yen since the USDJPY traded near record-lows in February. The sharp jump in crowd buying underlines the fact that most believe the Japanese Yen is unlikely to challenge fresh highs (USDJPY lows). The Japanese Yen nonetheless stands to strengthen as the Bank of Japan withholds further monetary policy stimulus and markets turn risk-averse.
The retail trading crowd is often ‘right’ at the turns; the SSI showed traders were their most net-long USDJPY on record as the pair bottomed in February. Yet current extremes could just as easily be a precursor for continued declines, and we remain bearish the US Dollar against the Japanese Yen on such one-sided sentiment.
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The British Pound Outlook depends on the BoE in Paris for more relaxing

30 June 2012 analyst 02: 49 GMT
fundamental forecasts for the pound sterling: Rally
The pound sterling has reduced the decline of this month that the EU Summit survived the reactions of the market, but the sterling may struggle to hold his ground next week as the market players see the Bank of England is taking additional steps to protect the UK economy. While the BoE is widely expected to maintain the reference to 0.50% interest rate, there is growing speculation that the Central Bank embark in more quantitative expansion as the sovereign debt crisis continues to hinder the fundamental Outlook for the region.
A Bloomberg News poll shows 39 of 41 surveyed economists see the monetary policy Committee increase the ease of purchase far beyond the target of 325 GBP, and the Central Bank can continue to do its cycle of relaxation in the second half of the year Governor Mervyn King is cautious over more to the region. Indeed, Mr King sounded pessimistic on the economy of his testimony before the Council of the Treasury Committee, earlier this week, and it seems that the head of the Central Bank attempts to of swaying the MPC to expand the balance sheet more far to combat the risk of loss to the U.K. economy. The United Kingdom is in a technical recession, fears of a prolonged economic slowdown may push additional votes for ease, but we see an another 5-4 split in July as the underlying growth of price stickiness raises the threat of inflation. Although the BoE curbed its forecasts for growth and inflation, we have seen the superior price containing consumer heart tick in may, with annualized sales growth of 2.2%, and the majority can continue to approve an approach to wait and see the fundamental Outlook for Britain remain confused with great uncertainty.
Although the GBPUSD had an impressive rally in July, the couple seems to have carved a high low in June, and the lack of dynamism of stand on the tracing of Fibonacci 61.8% of 2009 low to high around 1.5690 - 1.5700 can produce a correction in the short term before the decision of BoE rate as market participants weigh prospects for monetary policy. However, a program for the purchase of the assets of the BoE increase could force a sharp decline in the exchange rate, and we see the GBPUSD allow execution of the other 50.0% Fib (1.5270) should the Central Bank strike a tone very moderate for the area. -DS
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30 June 2012 02: 49 GMT

:: Still Hanging to Short-Term Constructive Euro Outlook; Oil Also Interesting

26 June 2012 05:39 GMT  Latest wave of downbeat news weighs on risk correlated assets Markets however still largely locked in some consolidation We remain upbeat and still look for Euro rally before weakness Oil chart looking highly compelling; could be buy opportunity soon There is very little to talk about into Tuesday and markets seem to be locked in a holding pattern ahead of the EU Summit on Thursday and Friday. Still, if there is one direction in which markets have been aligning, it has certainly been in the risk off direction as any headlines that have surfaced over the past 24 hours have been negative. Moody’s downgrade of 28 Spanish banks, Merkel’s opposition to Eurobonds, Cyprus officially requesting a bailout and the Greek FinMin resignation have not helped to bolster risk appetite in any way, and this has resulted in some pullbacks in the Euro below 1.2500 and a sharp retreat in USD/JPY below 80.00. Overall however, we really haven’t moved that much, and we could just as easily see a reversal in market sentiment and renewed optimism on some unknown catalyst later today. For the time being, we remain on the optimistic and upbeat side, and will look for this optimism to help support the Euro back over 1.2585 and USD/JPY above 80.00 again. Still, if you are not currently in any positions, the best place seems to be on the sidelines. There is however one interesting trade that has jumped onto our radar screen and that is Oil. We recently wrote a third quarter forecast for the commodity and it looks as though this market could soon find some formidable support ahead of some major upside back over $100 over the coming weeks and months. This is a market that has been under some intense pressure for the majority of the second quarter, with the price action resulting in some stretched medium-term technical studies. At this point however, the market is expected to find some formidable support between $65-75 and as such, our recommendation would be to look to take advantage of the stretched studies and build into a long position on a decline into the above mentioned range. There is some very good former resistance turned support from 2010 in the $65-75 area and ultimately, only a 2-week close back under $65 would negate our more constructive third quarter outlook and give reason for pause. Look for a push back towards $100 at some point over the coming months. At that point, we recommend booking profits on any rallies beyond $100 and standing aside.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

 TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

 EUR/USD: While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Despite the latest pullback, the market still looks constructive in the short-term while above 1.2440. A closer look at the weekly chart still shows the pair putting in yet another weekly higher high and higher low. Nevertheless, a break back above 1.2750 will now be required to accelerate gains. Below 1.2440 negates.
 USD/JPY: Some very constructive price action in recent sessions with the market clearing some critical short-term resistance by 79.80 and then breaking back above psychological barriers at 80.00. This now opens the door for a potential medium-term higher low in place by 77.65 ahead of the next major upside extension back towards and eventually above the 2012 highs by 84.20. Setbacks now expected to be well supported above 78.50.
 GBP/USD: Despite some intraday pullbacks, the bullish correction since early June remains alive, and we still see room for additional upside beyond 1.5780 and towards 1.6000 over the coming days. Ultimately, any additional declines are expected to be well supported around 1.5500, while only back under 1.5450 would compromise the outlook.
 USD/CHF: While we retain a broader bullish outlook for this pair, with the market seen establishing back above parity over the coming weeks, there still seems to be room for additional short-term declines while the market trends lower from the peak in early June. Ultimately, a break back over 0.9660 would be required to end the short-term bearish correction and open the door for broader bullish resumption. Until then, risks remain for a deeper pullback towards the 0.9200-0.9300 area.

Euro Short-term outlook more optimistic than the eye can see

22nd June 2012 05.45 GMT clock
The resumption of aggressive risk from Thursday's price action was understandable. After all, this is very good news for investors to hold. In fact, the rally in risk assets in recent weeks about the pricing of the scene that the maximum realization of true positive developments. Curiously, it is our belief that more control of risk in the trade, which was since the beginning of June to see, could continue.
While recognizing the state of the global economy is far from rosy, were increasingly convinced that the crisis as a whole (commitment to support the economy at all costs because of aggressive forms of monetary stimulus and budget), a seemingly unlimited governmental proponomics could actually help us overcome the crisis, without any great disadvantage. See the U.S. economy. This was the first economy of the global recession, but the strong commitment of the U.S. government and Federal Reserve to inject liquidity into the system seems to work even enter. Investor confidence was well supported as the performance of U.S. equities occupied, while the actual economic data are signs of improvement.
Many other countries have adopted a similar approach, and this strategy has spread like wildfire, with a commitment to support coordinated the global economy at all costs. It can be a confirmation of this fact better than the recent G20 meeting, which was very explicit on the subject. For now, the real trick to a leadership role in Europe will fall into line and get up to the plate. In our opinion, Europe has not been so aggressive with this approach, as it should, and all that is needed is a formal plan to address the crisis in the head. However, a leading presence in the region failed, and the Achilles heel of the region is that we are not compatible with a country. However, we argue that at least in the short term, this curve, where the ball, when markets are in a good way for European leadership was surprised to be able to really accelerate in the last minute.
The next EU summit will be very important, and we expect a result that surprised the market and provide a new understanding of trust in the region. On the other hand, is quite common for me to take an optimistic view. Many of you know, I was very bearish and pessimistic in recent years. But now that everyone wonders about the collapse of the euro, it is logical to expect a rally. I feel refreshed after two portfolio managers in television yesterday calling for more aggressive acceleration, and low in the euro area immediately.
Trading Markets is one of the most difficult challenges, such as the use of the market in a sense, all the weaknesses of each operator in one form or another to find. And with any and all queuing up to an additional risk compromise, I think this might be a bit of a surprise.
My opinion is that we will soon see the opening of a very aggressive plan of state and government of the euro area, which is finally taken by investors and open the door to an aggressive round of trade negotiations in the risk next few days. Maybe then I'll fade into the path of darkness and look back for a chance to rally. For me, a movement in the euro area seems logical to 1.3000, and then I was happy to sell aggressively.

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR / USD: While our overall picture remains very pessimistic, so it is possible to short-term upside, before a new record is requested below. Despite the recent decline, the market still looks short-term constructive above 1.2440. A closer look on the weekly chart also shows the couple begins another week of high and low peak. However, a break above 1.2750 again is needed now to accelerate gains. Below 1.2440 negates.

USD / JPY: Some very constructive price action in recent market sessions with the cleaning of some critical short-term resistance of 79.80, then break the psychological barrier of 80.00 again. This now opens the door to a possible medium-term higher low back instead of 77.65 before the extension to the next big time and peak in 2012 of 84.20.

GBP / USD: Despite some upward correction intraday setbacks since the beginning of June is still alive, and we still see room for additional header to 1.5780 and 1.6000 in the coming days. Ultimately, any further decline is expected to be well supported around 1.5500, while only back under 1.5450 would threaten vision.

USD / CHF: Even if we get a larger bullish on this pair, with the market, setting back to parity in the coming weeks, it seems that there is room for further short-term declines , while the lowest level since the peak market trends early June Ultimately, a break above 0.9660 is needed to return to end the current bear market and opens the door for recovery upward further. Until then, the risk of a deep decline towards 0.9200 to 0.9300 range.

Warning: Greek elections could stimulate the huge volatility, Euro Outlook unclear

Greece is headed back to the polls this weekend following the inconclusive results of the May 6 parliamentary elections. Unlike the first elections, the June 17 elections have significant consequences tied to it that will likely result in exceptional market volatility. With the significant event risk expected to occur during hours FXCM's trading platform is offline (17: 00 EDT / 21: 00 GMT on Friday to 17: 00 EDT / 21: 00 GMT on Sunday), Sunday's open poses the threat of not only a significant gap, but spreads wider than usual as well. Accordingly, we believe that this is not the trading landscape to speculate, and we suggest reducing position sizes given the significant amount of uncertainty forthcoming.
To help traders make the best informed decision headed into the weekend's critical event, please find below a concise summary of the likely outcomes of the Greek parliamentary elections, and for those interested, a fact sheet on each of the main parties competing in the Greek elections.
THE TAKEAWAY: June 17 Greek Parliamentary Elections > Outcome Could Determine Greece's Fate in Euro-zone
There are two main parties vying for control of Greece's government this weekend, the pro-bailout New Democracy party and the anti-bailout Syriza party. In a sense, and especially given the rhetoric deployed by non-Greek European leaders, these elections will determine the fate of Greece's inclusion in the Euro-zone. It boils down to this: a vote for New Democracy is considered pro-Euro; and a vote for Syriza is considered person.
We believe there are four likely outcomes to these elections, with the highest probability of a Euro-negative outcome this weekend. They are:
SCENARIO # 1: New Democracy wins elections and has parliamentary majority (> 151 votes) - EUR BULLISH 10% SCENARIO # 2: New Democracy wins elections purpose does not have majority - EUR BEARISH (least bearish outcome) – 45% SCENARIO # 3: Syriza wins elections purpose does not have majority - EUR BEARISH (increasingly bearish outcome) – 40% SCENARIO # 4: Syriza wins elections and has parliamentary majority - EUR BEARISH (most bearish outcome) – 5% In light of these expected outcomes, we find it most likely that the elections will not yield the most bullish outcome (scenario # 1), but instead, falling somewhere between the least bearish and moderately bearish outcomes (scenario # 2, # 3). We have derived these probabilities from recent poll figures as well as commentaries from citizens and reporters in Greece.
Recent Poll Numbers
Public Issue, one of the leading opinion companies in Greece, carried out a telephone opinion survey from May 25-30 across a general population sample of 1210 adults from across Greece. The results estimated 31.5% support for Syriza, 25.5% for New Democracy, 13.5% for Pasok, 7.5% for Dimar. Compared to poll results from the week prior, support for Syriza had risen 1.5% (from 30%), fallen 0.5% (from 26%) for ND and fallen 2% (from 15.5%) for Pasok. The margin of error was +/-2.8 percentage points. Kapa Research SA surveyed 1012 people for the Athens - based Ta Nea newpaper, in a poll conducted from May 29 to 31. The results estimated 26.1% support for New Democracy, 23.6% for Syriza and 9.9% for Pasok. Compared the last poll held on May 23-24, support for ND rose 0.3% (from 25.8%), rose 3.5% (from 20.1%) for Syriza, fell 3.1% and for Pasok (from 13%). The overall margin of error is +/-3.1 percentage points. A Rass poll conducted for Eleftheros Typos showed 26.5% support for New Democracy, 24.2% for Syriza and 9.9% for Pasok. For those interested in learning more about each of the main parties competing in the Greek elections on June 17, please find below a summary of New Democracy's then Syriza's platforms.
New Democracy - Platform Points
-Scale back taxes and boost jobs as part of an overall renegotiation of the country's debt deal with its international creditors
-Replace some taxes, such as a property tax introduced last fall, with "administer" levies
-Revoke cuts to lowlevel pensions and to the salaries of police and air force employees, as well as boost the job market
-Support low income households and small businesses that have been hit hardest by the debt crisis
-Help indebted households to repay their due to banks
-Accelerate structural reforms and the privatization program, with the "rebirth" of the public sector with no mass layoffs of civil servants
-In regards to the €11.7 billion in public spending cuts that Greece's creditors have application by the end of 2013, ND (Samaras) said these should be made gradually over the next four years
-Declaration of exclusive economic zones in the sea to exploit natural resources.
-Enforce a harsh line against illegal immigration
Syriza - Platform Points
-Creation of a shield to protect society against the crisis
-Unconditional guaranteed minimum income or unemployment benefit, medical care, social protection, housing and access to all services of public utilities for all citizens
-Protection of and relief measures for indebted households
-Price controls and price reductions, VAT reduction, and abolition of VAT on basicneed goods
-Disposal of the debt burden, specifically through:
-Moratorium on debt servicing
-Negotiations for debt cancellation
-Regulation of remaining debt to include provisions for economic development and employment
-European regulations on the debt of European states
-Radical changes to the European Central Bank's role
-Prohibition of speculative banking products
-A pan-European tax on wealth, financial transactions and profits
-Income redistribution, taxation on wealth and elimination of unnecessary expenses
-Productive social and environmental reconstruction
--Socialization Nationalization of banks
-Stable employment with decent wages and social insurance
-Deepening Democracy: democratic political and social rights for all
-Restoration of a strong welfare state
-Immediate rescue of the pension system
-A rise in unemployment benefits
-The introduction of a guaranteed minimum income. "Diverse fragmentary reforms and policies must be united in a national system of guaranteed funds from the national budget." "An unconditional basic income, accommodation with heating, electricity and telecommunications, food and clothing, transportation, help at home, legal coverage and representation can thus become rights of all citizens."
-Free health care, which will be financed through a Public Health System
-Protection of public education, research, culture, and sports from the Memorandum's policies
-An independent foreign policy committed to the promotion of peace
-Peace-seeking foreign policy
-Disengagement from NATO and closure of foreign military bases on Greek soil
-Aiding the Cypriot people in the reunification of the island
-Written by Christopher Vecchio, Currency Analyst

€ Euro Outloo Still Constructive Despite Contrasting Fundamentals

June 14, 2012 05: 30 GMT markets probably tighten ahead of weekend key risk Technicals still show room for the additional force of currency in the short term for the opportunity to purchase to the breakdown of the USD/JPY as we inch more about event risk great weekend in the form of the election of Greek, it is quite possible that the markets will begin to harden and strengthen until after the election. The market participants also expect on the details of the last Spanish rescue and at this time, there are not many current that would justify engaging actively in both directions. Technically however, maps paint a different picture (in my opinion) and will continue to promote the room for the additional force of money before considering the possibility of bearish resumption.
This would mean that in spite of any fundamental concern now, active correlated risk always have room to run backwards. While we retain a broader bearish perspective on the Euro, at this stage, refer us to charts and look for further upside in the sessions coming in the region of 1 2800 - 1 3000 before considering a fresh short position. In addition, we keep a close eye on the USD/JPY and will seek to aggressively buy a break on resistance short term 79.80 key.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

EUR/USD: the market is in train to correct certain levels severely oversold after breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly downward, by we see still place upside in the short term before a high low is wanted. Look for the positive in the last week has close to open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1 2800 - 1 3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Setbacks must be well supported ahead of 1.2400.

USD/JPY: the recent setbacks have been quite intense, the market collapse by the ADM, 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we support that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by UST up more. However, at this stage, we need to see a break and close above 80.00 back to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic prospects.


GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI appear inclined upside down to allow a corrective bounce short term necessary after the setback down just shy of the 2012 bottom of January. Locate the last close back daily over 1.5440 to strengthen the prospects for growth in the short term, provided in the 1.5800 region where a low high costs will be sought for that underpin the acceleration of bear trend to resume. Only a close back under delays 1.5400.

USD/CHF: while we retain a broader upward perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the weeks to come, short-term risks are a corrective withdrawal to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see risks of weakness in the next sessions to the 9200 0 - 0 9300 area before the market seeks to reaffirm its upward momentum and broader uptrend.

$$Euro Outlook reste baissière sur le soutien de la BCE plu, sauvetages en attente

Discussion points
Euro: Spain asked the ECB to buy debt Greece to seek the third rescue Sterling: fails to test the 1.5600, all eyes on BoE Governor King U.S. Dollar: retail, product sales price disappoint - fueling speculation for Euro there: Spain asked the ECB to buy debt Greece to seek the third rescue plan
The Euro extended ahead of the previous day as the Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy has increased pressure on the Central Bank European to counter the increasing risk of contagion, and we could attend the Governing Council continuing its cycle of relaxation in the second half of the year, fundamental for the region Outlook is darker. Indeed, a newspaper Germany said that la Greece may need a third rescue as it struggles to get its house in order, although there is speculation growing Cyprus will be online at la request for help in the middle of la ongoing turmoil in the banking sector.
As Governments operating under the fixed exchange rate system become more and more dependent on monetary aid, the ECB may have little choice but to extend monetary policy further in July, but we can see the Board of directors a variety of tools to deal with the risks surrounding the region as the Union European maintains an approach to reactionary in the fight against the debt crisis. Negative headlines coming out of the region continues to cast a bearish Outlook for the EURUSD but it seems that the pair will continue to confront the range bound future prices for Greek elections under the threat of a breakdown of the euro area remains on the table. As the EURUSD is capped by the tracing of Fibonacci 23.6% of the top 2009 2010 low around 1. 2640-50, we can have the opportunity to play the side action prices towards the end of the week, and we could see the pair to strengthen in the next 24 hours, as it struggles to put in a fence above the 20-day SMA (1.2545). Its Tower, negative headlines from Europe can pave the way for a move to 1.2300 figure, and we will maintain a downward of the entering perspective as it seems to carving out a high low on June.
Pound sterling: fails to test the 1.5600, all eyes on BoE Governor King
Sterling marked a failed run in the former (1.5600) support in risk taking behaviour change, and the GBPUSD may continue to consolidate for the rest of the week, as it supports the action of price range-rebound this month. The pound sterling-dollar seems to be earning a high low in June, we should see the exchange rate fall back to 50.0% Fib of low to high around 1.5270, but the sterling 2009 may face additional turbulence in the coming week as officials of the Bank of England more cautious to the economy. Indeed, the minutes of the BoE on tap for June 20 highlights the increased risk of event for the short term, but comments from the Governor Mervyn King, who plans to speak tomorrow at 18 h 00 GMT - can instill a bearish for the sterling perspective, tilt the head of the Central Bank to ease.
US dollar: retail, product sales price disappoint - fueling speculation for there
The greenback remained under pressure on Wednesday, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) drag to a minimum of 10 161 and the reserve currency may continue to give back the rebound earlier this week that European policy makers increase their efforts to maintain a sense of market. At the same time, reducing the price pressure combined with the decline in private consumption has renewed speculation for a new round of quantitative easing as the Federal Reserve leaves the door open to further develop the monetary policy, but we expect the FOMC to maintain its approach of wait and see through 2012 as the largest economy in the world gets on a more sustainable path. In turn, we remain optimistic over the medium term, and we should see the dollar resume advance earlier this year, as the Central Bank continues to soften the dovish tone for monetary policy.

$ USD Correction Underway, AUD Outlook Dampen By Rate Expectations

06 June 2012 16:25 GMT

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	10184.31	10249.57	10177.47	-0.59	123.67%

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.59 percent lower on the day after moving 124 percent of its average true range, and the greenback may track lower over the remainder of the week as it carves out a short-term top coming into June. As we expect former trendline support to act as new resistance, the index appears to be carving out a downward trend, and the recent weakness in the dollar may gather pace over the coming days as the European Central Bank looks to increase its effort in addressing the debt crisis. At the same time, the Fed’s Beige Book may boost risk-taking behavior should the survey fuel speculation for another round of quantitative easing, but we may see the report prop up the dollar should the central bank continue to take note of the more robust recovery.

Indeed, Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart floated the idea of extending ‘Operation Twist’ as opposed to expanding the balance sheet further, and it seems as though the central bank is looking at other options besides QE3 as the debt crisis continues to pose a risk to the global financial system. Beyond the external risks surrounding the world’s largest economy, the ongoing improvement in private sector activity continues to limit the Fed’s scope to further pump liquidity into the system, and we should see the FOMC continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy as the world’s largest economy gets on a more sustainable path. Nevertheless, it seems as though we’re finally seeing a correction in the USDOLLAR as the relative strength index continues to come off of overbought territory, and will be watching the 61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement around 9,949 for key support as it maintains the upward trending channel from earlier this year.
 Three of the four components advanced against the dollar, led by a 1.69 percent rally in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency may continue to retrace the selloff from the previous month as currency traders increase their appetite for risk. Indeed, the above-forecast 1Q GDP print has helped to prop up the AUDUSD, but the rebound in the exchange rate is likely to be short-lived as market participants see the Reserve Bank of Australia taking additional steps to stimulate a stronger recovery. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are still looking for another 100bp worth of rate cuts over the next 12-months, and we will main a bearish outlook for the aussie-dollar as the continues to carry out its easing cycle.

####Correct the low dollar value on Outlook there, testimony from Bernanke in Focus

05 June 2012 03:55 GMT 

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)

(28 May 2012 – 01 Jun 2012)

Points de discussion
Dollar américain, de juste inférieur sur Outlook de3, témoignage de Bernanke dans Focus Euro, British Pound peut trouver appui comme la BCE et la BOE Hold Back relance japonais Yen visant plus vs USD comme QE espère peser sur Conseil du Trésor donne australien, canadien et le NZ Dollars peut recouvrer long avec risque appétit The US Dollar pénètre dans la semaine commerciale avec un surplomb de lourde par rapport profondément décevant sur l'emploi de vendredi ayant puisé hauts 18 mois juste avant la sortie de données. Le résultat ouvre la porte à un redémarrage de la spéculation, environ un tiers de tour de quantitative easing (de3) de la réserve fédérale. L'impact des efforts antérieurs de QE suggère que les marchés traiterait de stimulation supplémentaire comme ayant un effet dilutif sur le billet vert, ce qui suggère le gonflement des attentes d'un tel résultat sont susceptibles de peser sur les prix à court terme.
Témoignage à venir fromFed président Ben Bernanke susceptible d'amplifier l'accent sur la détente avant une session conjointe du Congrès de Paris. Bien que le chef de la Banque centrale est susceptible de rester engagés – relais un stimulus supplémentaire message familier, toujours « sur la table » mais « téméraire » si cela veut dire sacrifier la stabilité des prix – il semble sûr de reconnaître que tourner la récente baisse dans les données. Marchés peuvent accepter une fois de plus cela comme une attitude assez modérés de vendre le billet vert. L'impression d'ISM-secteur des services livre Beige de la Fed levé et du titre de conditions économiques régionales le calendrier économique, avec des signes de ralentissement susceptible de renforcer les espoirs de3 et composé de Dollar vente à pression.
Mais surtout, la probabilité que se concrétisera réellement de3 semble très petite. Nous les coûts d'emprunt nous trouver leur chemin moins bien sans intervention de la Fed. Référence 10 ans du Conseil du Trésor des rendements est tombé à un dossier faible 1,45 % la semaine dernière que les craintes de crise de la zone euro a conduit capital cherchant refuge dans la dette américaine. Après ajustement pour l'inflation, cela signifie que les investisseurs paiera effectivement le gouvernement environ 60 bps par an pour s'occuper de leur argent. Avec la situation en Europe guère sur la voie de la guérison, les rendements sont susceptibles de demeurer sous la pression pendant un certain temps, c'est-à-dire que le bénéfice marginal d'un programme de3 serait très faible au mieux et en faisant valoir ce qui laisse supposer que la faiblesse du Dollar cette semaine est susceptible d'être corrective, avec le rassemblement probable de retrouver le dynamisme que le trac de retour avant de la deuxième tentative de la Grèce, lors d'une élection générale le 17 juin.
Cependant son retour cette semaine, la prévalence de de3 Paris comme un conduite thème à court terme est susceptible de voir le Yen japonais continuent de renforcer une raffermissant de la corrélation entre les rendements du Conseil du Trésor et USDJPY tire la paire inférieure. Les stocks liés australien, canadien et Dollars néo-zélandais s'apprêtent à monter ainsi que confirmation des espoirs d'appétit risque de Fed relance bouée. L'EBR est censé largement réduire les taux d'intérêt encore une fois cette semaine. Les marchés semblent être des prix à une possibilité significative pour une autre réduction 50 bit/s, donc un résultat 25 bps plus petit peut-être offrir réellement la Aussie un bit d'un ascenseur. Séparément, le BOC devrait largement à maintenir les taux en attente à 1 %.
Quant à l'Euro et la livre sterling, corrélations avec l'appétit de risque (comme le suivi par le MSCI World Stock Index), les tendances ont diminué significativement, mettant l'accent sur les attentes de la politique monétaire comme la BOE ECBand fournir des annonces de taux d'intérêt. Les deux banques centrales devraient demeurer en attente cette fois-ci. Pour le BEP, un tel résultat est probablement un non-événement donné penchant de la Banque pour la maman de rester lorsqu'aucun changement de politique. Alors que les données économiques UK ont aigri, obstinément forte inflation est susceptible de garder Mervyn King et compagnie sur la touche pour l'instant. Quant à la BCE, les commerçants seront plus intéressés à la Banque centrale qui suit Conférence de presse du Président Mario Draghi l'annonce pour des conseils sur l'assouplissement de futurs possibles comme la croissance de la zone Euro continue d'affaissement et apaisement de l'inflation donne les décideurs le rythme pour l'exploitation. Sur la balance, moratoire sur les deux fronts peut aider EURUSD et GBPUSD plus élevé.
EURO

EURO

Source : Bloomberg
LIVRE STERLING

Source : Bloomberg
YEN JAPONAIS

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR CANADIEN

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR AUSTRALIEN

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Source : Bloomberg
DOLLAR NÉO-ZÉLANDAIS

$$$ USD Looks Higher Despite Being Overbought, AUD Outlook Hinges On RBA

04 June 2012 16:05 GMT

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	10225.88	10271.92	10211.64	-0.11	110.02%

he Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.11 percent lower from the open after moving 110 percent of its average true range, and it looks as though the greenback has carved a short-term top coming in June as it threatens the upward trending channel carried over from the previous month. Although currency traders are look for a short-term correction in the greenback, the recent selloff in the USD may turn out to be a false break, and we will keep a close eye on the 30-minute relative strength index as it bounces back from oversold territory. As the oscillator continues to find support around 27, we may see the dollar consolidate ahead of the Fed’s Beige Book on tap for later this week, but the central bank may continue to strike a cautious tone for the world’s largest economy amid the ongoing slack in private sector activity.

As the USDOLLAR continues to bounce off of the 10-Day SMA (10,210), the RSI on the daily chart may hold in overbought territory, and we may see the greenback work its way back towards the 10,300 figure as the ongoing threat for contagion drags on market sentiment. Although European policy makers are looking to recapitalize the banking system through the European Stability Mechanism, it seems as though the recent movement is merely another attempt to buy more time as Germany continues to oppose broadening the scope of the permanent bailout fund. As there appears to be a growing rift within the EU, there’s speculation that the European Central Bank may offer some relief at the rate decision scheduled for Wednesday, but we may see the Governing Council move away from its nonstandard measures as they have a limited impact in addressing the risks surrounding the real economy. In turn, ECB President Mario Draghi may look to target the benchmark interest rate, and the dollar may continue to benefit from the ongoing turmoil in the euro-area as investor confidence remains frail.

 Three of the four components advanced against the greenback, led by a 0.47 percent rally in the Euro, while the Australian dollar added 0.15 percent ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia interest rate decision on tap for Tuesday. According to a Bloomberg News survey, 16 of the 27 economists polled are looking for a rate cut, while market participants are pricing a 63 percent chance for a 50bp rate cut according to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps. In light of the dovish rhetoric from the RBA, we may see the central bank continue to take an aggressive approach in addressing the risks surrounding the $1T economy, and the board may carry its easing cycle into the second-half of the year as the slowdown in China – Australia’s largest trading partner – threatens to derail the recovery. In turn, the AUDUSD may face another selloff going into the middle of the week, and the high-yielding currency may continue to give back the rebound from October as the flight to safety gathers pace.

Euro continues to threaten 1.2500, Sterling Outlook supported by BoE

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£ British Pound Outlook Calls for Mixed Performance vs. Top Currencies

26 May 2012 04:12 GMT

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral
Sizing up risk appetite trends, the British Pound appears likely to yield a mixed performance in the week ahead, with gains likely against the safe-haven set of currencies while losses are sustained against the Euro and the overtly sentiment-linked commodity dollars (particularly the Aussie and the Kiwi). Rapidly eroding Bank of England policy expectations may undermine the select pockets of Sterling strength however.
The EU leaders’ summit ended with policymakers putting the fate of Greece firmly in the country’s own hands, meaning little is likely to change on this front until repeat elections are held in mid-June. Meanwhile, the latest batch of dismal PMI readings from China and the Eurozone reinforced the threat that both economies post to global growth but offered nothing that was thematically unfamiliar for investors. This hints that the supply of near-term negativity that can conceivably unhinge markets is running dry, opening the door for profit-taking to spark a correction in recent trends.
For the British Pound, this amounts to a rebound against established safe havens like the US Dollar and Japanese Yen and pullback against the Euro where the UK unit served as a regional refuge to capital feeing the uncertainty tainting the single currency. Losses also appear likely against high-yielders like the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, where the Pound is the lesser “risky” currency and so finds itself at a disadvantage amid a broad-based recovery in sentiment.
On the domestic front, the focus is on Friday’s Manufacturing PMI print. Expectations call for the factory sector to shrink in May, marking the first contraction in five months. The result threatens to reinforce negative cues from April’s soft inflation reading as well as the downward revision of first-quarter GDP results and may put downward pressure on front-end yields along with Sterling as BOE rate expectations sink. Indeed, a Credit Suisse gauge of priced-in policy expectations for the coming year has dropped precipitously and now stands at the lowest in four months.
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26 May 2012 04:12 GMT

-> Gold Outlook Rests on G8 Summit, Eurozone PMIs and US Survey Data

19 May 2012 03:57 GMT

Fundamental Forecast for Gold: Neutral
Gold prices mounted a swift recovery toward the end of last week as fears of a spreading crisis in the Eurozone and disappointing US economic news drove demand for alternative stores of value. An unexpectedly soft Philadelphia Fed print dented hopes that an accelerating US recovery will offset headwinds to global growth from sluggish conditions in Europe and Asia. The outcome marked only the second bit of significant data from the May set of activity surveys, tarnishing positive cues from the Empire Manufacturing print earlier in the week and pulling gold higher on inflation-hedge buying as traders sized up the uneven performance with minutes from the Fed’s April policy minutes. The release showed some policymakers made the case for a QE3 program in the event that growth falters.
Meanwhile, Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks, citing the weak economy and mounting government debt. The announcement stoked fears that lenders in the Eurozone’s fourth-largest economy (and possibly elsewhere) may buckle as Greek-born jitters metastasize region-wide. This unearthed the possibility of another broad-based credit crisis akin to the 2008 fiasco, driving investors to seek refuge in assets of intrinsic worth that don’t necessarily rely on well-functioning financial markets to derive and maintain their value.
The week ahead presents headline event risk along both themes driving gold prices. On the US data front, the focus is on the Richmond and Kansas City Fed surveys as markets continue to expand their understanding of where world’s top economy stands in May. Expectations point to mixed results and traders will be keen to put the final outcomes in the context of last week’s news flow. The final revision of May’s University of Michigan Consumer Confidence gauge rounds out the docket. Soft readings are likely to fan the flames of QE3 speculation, driving gold higher. Scheduled remarks from the Fed’s Kocherlakota, Lockhart, Plosser and Dudley will be interpreted along the same lines.
Turning to the Eurozone, the tone for the week will be set by the G8 summit set to take place at Camp David over the weekend. Markets will be holding out hope for signs of an emerging multilateral response to ensure global financial markets are protected from contagion. The absence of concretely reassuring rhetoric is likely to add to gold’s upward momentum as a seemingly growing possibility of another market-wide rout buys demand. The preliminary set of May’s Eurozone PMI figures as well as Germany’s IFO survey of business confidence will color expectations of the degree of economic slowdown in the region. Soft outcomes will warn that sluggish performance threatens to sabotage precarious deficit-reduction efforts and amplify credit market stress. This too may prove gold-supportive if markets see the Eurozone issue as one with swelling global implications (a perception the G8 outcome is likely to establish in the near term).

GVI Forex Date Outlook for 21 May 2012

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May 18, 2012 (global-view.com) UPCOMING DATA HIGHLIGHTS for Monday, May 21, 2012. Updated: Trading Events Calendar:
Far East: CN- HSBC flash PMI, Tertiary Activity Index, LEI . Europe: EU Summit. North America: CA- Holiday. Daily Forex Market News
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- EUR Losses To Accelerate On Spain, Greece – GBP Outlook Hinges On BoE

Talking Points
Euro: ECB Sees Risk Of Greek Exit, June Forecast To Highlight Prolonged Recession British Pound: BoE To Stay On Hold Through 2013 As Inflation Report Comes Into Focus U.S. Dollar: China Cuts RRR By 50bp Ahead Of FOMC Minutes Euro: ECB Sees Risk Of Greek Exit, June Forecast To Highlight Prolonged Recession
The Euro slipped to a fresh monthly low of 1.2829 as Spain sold EUR 2.9B in bills versus the EUR 3.0B target, while the yield tied to the region’s 10-Year debt advanced to 6.33% from 6.22% following the auction. Beyond the heightening risk for contagion, policy makers in Greece are certainly running out of time as they struggle to form a coalition, and the threat of a Greek exit certainly raises the risk for a major selloff as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak.
Meanwhile, European Central Bank board member Luc Coene said Greece leaving the monetary union ‘would be possible’ according to an interview with the Financial Times, and went onto say that the revised economic forecast scheduled for June may highlighta ‘slight deterioration in growth’ as the region continues to face a risk for a prolonged recession. However, Mr. Coene talked down speculation for additional asset purchases as the non-standard measures have a limited impact in addressing the debt crisis, and it seems as though the Governing Council is looking to target the benchmark interest rate as its ballooning balance sheet comes under scrutiny. As the EURUSD continues to give back the advance from earlier this year, we should see the pair fall back towards the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50, but we will keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it slips into oversold territory.
British Pound: BoE To Stay On Hold Through 2013 As Inflation Report Comes Into Focus
The British Pound pared the overnight decline to 1.6050 as ongoing turmoil in Europe increased the appeal of the sterling, and the GBPUSD may track higher in the coming days should the Bank of England highlight an improved outlook for the U.K. As the BoE’s quarter inflation report comes into focus, there’s speculation that Governor Mervyn King will keep the benchmark interest rate on hold until late next year, but the central bank head may sound increasingly hawkish this time around as the stickiness in underlying price growth raises the risk for inflation. As the Monetary Policy Committee anticipates to see a more robust recovery in the second-half of 2012, we may see the board start to discuss a tentative exit strategy, and we should see the fresh highs in the GBPUSD as it maintains the upward trend from earlier this year. However, as the short-term correction continues to play out, we are still looking for a test of former resistance around 1.6000 for support, and we may see the pound-dollar continue to consolidate ahead of the BoE inflation report as market participants weigh the outlook for monetary policy.
U.S. Dollar: China Cuts RRR By 50bp Ahead Of FOMC Minutes
The greenback continued to gain ground on Monday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) rallying to a fresh monthly high of 10,049, and the reserve currency may appreciate further over the next 24-hours of trading as the flight to safety gathers pace. Indeed, the People’s Bank of China’s announcement to cut the reserve requirement ratio by 50bp is having a limited impact on the market as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on investor confidence, and we should see risk sentiment continue to dictate price action across the major currencies as the economic docket remains fairly light for the North American session. However, as the Fed’s policy meeting minutes highlight the biggest event risk for this week, we may see the dollar consolidate going into the middle of the week, but the fresh batch of central bank rhetoric may continue to instill a bullish outlook for the greenback should the Fed drop its dovish tone for monetary policy. As the economic recovery gathers pace, we may see the FOMC may hold an improved outlook for the second-half of the year, but we may see a growing rift within the committee as Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further.
--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst
To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong
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