(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) - (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press
***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours - TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press
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(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) >- (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press
***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours >- TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press
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