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Showing posts with label softer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label softer. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 5, 2012

$$$$$Euro on the decline despite softer results of PMI

The Takeaway: eurozone Composite PMI hits 3-year low-> Markit Economics predicts-0.5% contraction in the second quarter-> Euro set aside earlier gains
Out of manufacturing and services in the euro area has reached the level the lowest since June 2009, according to the economic managers of Markit purchasing index survey of the. The PMI composite index at 46.0 may, slightly above the previously estimated 45.9. The euro-zone composite PMI has fallen for four straight months, since the January index reported the increase in production. A survey less than 50 points of exit of contracting PMI.
The lower PMI indicates a slowdown of the economy in Europe, even the usually strong Germany shows contracting output. Composite German PMI fell to a low 49.3 of 34 months in may, the result of 50.5 positive in April. French and Spanish composite PMI also decreased in May.
Services PMI in each country of the euro have been developed this morning; Germany services PMI were reported as expansion depending on the outcome of 51.8 for may, even lower than the previously estimated 52.2. France and the Italy both had contracting production services, although the Italy of 42.8 PMI was better than the estimated 42.0 and 42.3 index reported in April.
Markit Economics reported this weak demand has led to losses of jobs between services and manufacturing industries. However, a slight increase of German jobs in may softened the unemployment rate for the euro area in a whole. Chief Economist Chris Williamson of the markit predicts a contraction of 0.5% of the Q2 GDP of the euro area, according to the report.
It is said that G7 leaders are meeting today to discuss ways to improve the European economy and to help the Greece to avoid output of the single currency. German Prime Minister Angela Merkel said so far that it does support joint Government in euro bonds.

Euro_Back_on_the_Decline_Despite_Softer_PMI_Results___body_eurusd.png, Euro Back on the Decline Despite Softer PMI ResultsEUR/USD reversed earlier gains of day in the hours leading up to the release of the PMI, probably fall because of feelings on the G7 meeting possible and the negative comments recently by the Minister of the Spanish budget.
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the world market currencies.
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Monday, June 4, 2012

:::: Eurozone Producer Prices Softer than Expected in April

04 June 2012 07:30 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Producer prices in the Euro area lower than expected in April -> Lower energy costs, deepening economic slump factor into drop -> Euro price action reserved after yesterday’s weakness
Euro-area producer price inflation slowed for the seventh month in a row in April, the EU stats office said today. The softer than expected number was thought to be caused by declining energy costs and a weakening economic situation, highlighted by European leaders’ inability to resolve the Greek issue.
Declining oil prices have eased the burden on beleaguered European manufacturers, sending producer prices down. Meanwhile, plummeting economic confidence and sky-high unemployment rates have raised speculation that the European Central Bank will ease rates at its next policy meeting.

Eurozone_Producer_Prices_Softer_than_Expected_in_April_body_BOE.png, Eurozone Producer Prices Softer than Expected in April
The Euro traded quietly on Monday, well within the weekend range which saw weakness in risk correlated assets. EURUSD hit a fresh yearly low by 1.2286 over the weekend as investors continued to loose confidence in the single currency.

Tuesday, May 29, 2012

? Euro Stays Down after Softer German Inflation

THE TAKEAWAY: German CPI eased in May -> Pullback caused by reduction of energy prices -> Euro weak on the day
German May inflation numbers came in softer than expected, fueled by a decline in energy prices. The yearly consumer price index in Europe’s largest economy eased to 2.1% from 2.2% in April, which was also the expected number for May. Inflation fell 0.3% on the month.
The relief in inflation pressures was attributed to a drop in oil prices as political tensions in the Persian Gulf show signs of easing. Speculation that Greece will exit the Euro region continues to curb consumer spending from companies and households, although record low unemployment rates in Germany have contributed to rising demand.

Euro_Stays_Weak_after_Softer_German_Inflation_body_BOE.png, Euro Stays Down after Softer German Inflation
The Euro remained weak on the day after the German CPI release. The single currency has fallen sharply against the Greenback and Yen over recent weeks as instability in Greece threatens its security. Markets remained poised to absorb upcoming US consumer confidence numbers later on Tuesday.

Saturday, March 17, 2012

U.S. Dollar Softer but Data Could See the Rally Resume Later

After a slew of better than expected economic data which supports the Fed's new and improved outlook for the state of the U.S. economy, the U.S. Dollar had been trading broadly higher for the better part of the week. That appears to have come to a halt as profit taking is full steam ahead. Goal given the many data points that will be released later today, and consensus expectations that most of those will be positive, profit takers might want to hurry and cash in while the getting is good still.On OpenBook, the favored pair EUR/USD is trading higher at 1.3066, and feeling is slightly bullish though that could change ahead of the opening of the U.S. market. Guru Gavinwright, a EUR/USD bull who has 564 copiers and 3142 followers, closed out several long positions in the entering over the past several hours, with the range of earnings between 2% and 75%.
OpenBook Guru Pyruss, who has 519 copiers and 4208 followers, wants to take advantage of any drop in the price and put in an order to buy at 1.3008 and one short position opened yesterday is already showing a profit. This guru allocates 90.7% of his portfolio to the EUR/USD, which has given him a return of 1.4% over the past six months. Over that period, his total profit of all trades is a respectable 25.1%.
Later today, three key economic indicators will be released in the U.S.; first February's CPI will be reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and it is expected to be unchanged at 2.9%, to be followed afterward by the Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index, which is expected to rise to 76.0 from 75.3. Also, the Federal Reserve will release Industrial Production numbers for February, which analysts forecast will come in at 0.4% higher.

Saturday, March 10, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Australia trade plummets to deficit; China CPI, manufacturing softer; Optimism on Greece PSI, US NFP boost sentiment

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) - (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press
***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours - TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press
Have Market Intel? TradeTheNews.com Tip Line -> Click Here

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) >- (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.

***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press

***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours >- TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)

***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press

Friday, March 9, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian market update: Australia crashes trade deficit; China CPI, producing softer; Optimism on Greece PSI, US NFP boost mood

(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) - (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press
***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours - TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press


(AU) AUSTRALIA JAN TRADE BALANCE (A$): -673M V +1.50BE (first deficit since Feb 2011; widest deficit since Mar 2010) >- (CN) CHINA FEB PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI): Y/Y: 0.0% V 0.1%E (7th consecutive decline and a 27-month low)
- (CN) CHINA FEB CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) Y/Y: 3.2% V 3.4%E (20-month low); M/M: -0.1% v +1.5% prior
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION Y/Y: 11.4% V 12.5%E (lowest since Jul 2009)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB RETAIL SALES Y/Y: 14.7% V 17.4%E (matches 33-month low)
- (CN) CHINA JAN/FEB FIXED URBAN ASSETS Y/Y: 21.5% V 20.5%E; (multi-year low)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MONEY SUPPLY M2 Y/Y: 2.9% V 3.0%E (4-month low); M3 Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NZ CARD SPENDING RETAIL M/M: -0.7% V 0.1%E; TOTAL M/M: -0.3% V 0.1%E
- (KR) South Korea Feb Producer Price Index (PPI): 3.5% v 3.4% prior
- (PE) PERU CENTRAL BANK LEAVES REFERENCE RATE LEFT UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, AS EXPECTED
- NPD: Feb video Games sales $1.06BM v $1.33B y/y
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:00GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +2.2%
- S&P/ASX +1.0%
- Kospi +0.9%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.4%
- Shanghai Composite +0.4%
- Hang Seng +1.1%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,368
- April gold +0.4% at $1,705/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $106.98
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Asian equity markets are all in positive territory as investors shrug disappointing economic data out of China and Australia. Instead, the focus is squarely on expectations for (yet another) resolution in Athens. Financial press has been abuzz with speculation of a strong participation by the private sector in the bond swap, forecasting that PSI could be in the mid-90s if collective action clause (CAC) is invoked on holdouts. Nikkei225 is biggest gainer at nearly 2% boosted by further Yen weakness, as USD/JPY hit a new 9-month high around ¥81.90. Japan's main index topped 10K for the first time since August. Ahead of the Greece PSI announcement, IMF chief Lagarde appeared optimistic that the swap would go through.
- Economic data out of China was soft across the board, with multi-month lows in CPI, industrial production, and retail sales. Analysts appear to be quick to dismiss the data to seasonality of the Lunar New Year, deferring to March results for clearer evidence of a slowdown. There is also persistent chatter that the latest data could spur more easing by the PBoC. Trade results out of Australia cast a similarly long shadow over China economic activity. Jan Trade balance fell into a deficit for the first time since Feb of last year as exports fell 8% m/m. Macquarie economists acknowledge that weak exports "raise questions about our over-reliance on the mining sector and high commodity prices", while JPMorgan research also points to Lunar New Year seasonality distorting China demand. Note that the China exports component of the Australia trade data fell by double digits to A$5.16B v A$6.90B prior.

***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: BOJ will continue to support economy with easy policy; Need to remain cautious on Greece following debt swap
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Recent BOJ easing has had a positive impact on equities and JPY; Expects BOJ to continue to take appropriate measures
- (CN) PBoC Advisor Liu Guisheng: Debt accrued by China's local govts is controllable
- (KR) According to Korea International Trade Association (KITA), South Korea growth will be affected by China's reduction of its official GDP target - Korean press

***Equities***
- Mitsubishi Corp: EVP: Expects to meet FY12/13 net profit target of ¥500B despite slowing demand from China - Nikkei News interview
- Honda, Suzuki, and Mitsubishi Motors' Jan-Feb sales in China saw y/y declines - Nikkei News
- RENN: Reports Q4 $0.04 v $0.02e, R$32.8M v $32Me
- GNS.AU: Trading halted; In talks with investors regarding an equity raise
- DB: Took about €5-10B in loans as part of ECB lending program last week - US financial press
US equities:
- ARO: Reports Q4 $0.44 (adj) v $0.38e, R$808.4M v $804Me; Guides Q1 $0.08-0.10 v $0.12e; -3.4% afterhours >- TXN: Mid-quarter update: Guides Q4 $0.15-0.19 (incl $0.10 in charges) v $0.31e, R$2.99-3.11B v $3.2Be; -1.0% afterhours
- SBUX: Unveils Verismo, a new at-home single cup offering system, to be available in fall 2012; +3.6% afterhours (GMCR: -15% afterhours)

***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- USD/JPY: Extends gains above ¥81.87; New 9-month high; Nikkei225 rises above 10,000 for the first time since Aug 2011
- US Treasury Sec Geithner: A gradual appreciation of the Chinese Yuan assists competitiveness; US can afford to extend middle class tax cut beyond 2012
- (NZ) HSBC FX analysts see significant downside risks due to "extreme valuation" in NZD - financial press