Discussion points
Euro: ECB to knock your dove in the Middle risk for prolonged recession pound sterling: current Correction, the prospects remain optimistic on the Dollar of BoE: Index of 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap Euro tests: ECB to knock your Dove the medium risk for prolonged recession
The Euro slipped to a weekly minimum fee of 1.3120 as the weakening of the market of work associated with the decline in manufacturing of increased the risk of a prolonged recession, and the EURUSD can continue to rebound from the previous month, as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Indeed, the Portugal auction EUR 1 b 12 months good performance 3.908 percent, which compares the % 3.652 offered in March, and there could be a little more moderate the European Central Bank, this time as fundamental for the region perspectives more dark.
Although the ECB should largely to maintain its current position of the policy in may, Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi may seek to target the reference interest rate as the non-standard measures have limited impact with regard to the risks to the region, and we could attend the Board of Governors to carry its relaxation cycle in the second half of the year : the Governments under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary support. The EURUSD resumed a series of senior lower in April, we will paste by our forecasts down for the pair, and that we are still a strong bond of the exchange rate as price action continues to approach the apex of the triangle down. In return, we need a significant break and a fence below 1.3000 to see bearish formation pan, and we should see the entering fall to Fibonacci 23.6% of the top 2009-2010 allows low around 1. 2630-50 as European policy makers trying to reduce the risks surrounding the area.
Pound sterling: Correction underway, Outlook remains optimistic on the BoE
The pound extended the decline of the previous day as participants in the market reduced their appetite for risk, and the correction in the short term in the GBPUSD may gather pace for the rest of the week, then that index of upcoming continuing relative strength in the territory of surachat. However, as the economic recovery in the United Kingdom brings together progressively the pace, we should see the Bank of England continue to move away from its relaxation cycle, and we are looking for charges annual highs in the GBPUSD as the pair maintains the trend since the beginning of this year. As Governor of the BoE Mervyn King is expected to speak later today, bellicose comments of the head of the Central Bank should support the sterling, but the GBPUSD may continue to fall back to the old resistance around 1.6000 he is seeking for support.
US dollar: Index 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap test
The greenback has continued to return on the decline of the previous month, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a maximum of 9 902 and the reserve currency may appreciate more during trade in North America, as the flight to safety is the pace. As the economic record is still light enough for the rest of the day, we should see trends risk dictate the action price through the major currencies, but the fresh batch of comments from the Fed Chairman of Richmond Jeffery Lacker can trigger a bullish reaction in the greenback as the FOMC Member adopted a bellicose tone of monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve increased its Outlook for growth and inflation, we should see the Central Bank to discuss a preliminary exit strategy, and the Committee can see scope start to normalize monetary policy toward the end of the year, as the recovery gathers pace.
Euro: ECB to knock your dove in the Middle risk for prolonged recession pound sterling: current Correction, the prospects remain optimistic on the Dollar of BoE: Index of 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap Euro tests: ECB to knock your Dove the medium risk for prolonged recession
The Euro slipped to a weekly minimum fee of 1.3120 as the weakening of the market of work associated with the decline in manufacturing of increased the risk of a prolonged recession, and the EURUSD can continue to rebound from the previous month, as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Indeed, the Portugal auction EUR 1 b 12 months good performance 3.908 percent, which compares the % 3.652 offered in March, and there could be a little more moderate the European Central Bank, this time as fundamental for the region perspectives more dark.
Although the ECB should largely to maintain its current position of the policy in may, Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi may seek to target the reference interest rate as the non-standard measures have limited impact with regard to the risks to the region, and we could attend the Board of Governors to carry its relaxation cycle in the second half of the year : the Governments under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary support. The EURUSD resumed a series of senior lower in April, we will paste by our forecasts down for the pair, and that we are still a strong bond of the exchange rate as price action continues to approach the apex of the triangle down. In return, we need a significant break and a fence below 1.3000 to see bearish formation pan, and we should see the entering fall to Fibonacci 23.6% of the top 2009-2010 allows low around 1. 2630-50 as European policy makers trying to reduce the risks surrounding the area.
Pound sterling: Correction underway, Outlook remains optimistic on the BoE
The pound extended the decline of the previous day as participants in the market reduced their appetite for risk, and the correction in the short term in the GBPUSD may gather pace for the rest of the week, then that index of upcoming continuing relative strength in the territory of surachat. However, as the economic recovery in the United Kingdom brings together progressively the pace, we should see the Bank of England continue to move away from its relaxation cycle, and we are looking for charges annual highs in the GBPUSD as the pair maintains the trend since the beginning of this year. As Governor of the BoE Mervyn King is expected to speak later today, bellicose comments of the head of the Central Bank should support the sterling, but the GBPUSD may continue to fall back to the old resistance around 1.6000 he is seeking for support.
US dollar: Index 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap test
The greenback has continued to return on the decline of the previous month, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a maximum of 9 902 and the reserve currency may appreciate more during trade in North America, as the flight to safety is the pace. As the economic record is still light enough for the rest of the day, we should see trends risk dictate the action price through the major currencies, but the fresh batch of comments from the Fed Chairman of Richmond Jeffery Lacker can trigger a bullish reaction in the greenback as the FOMC Member adopted a bellicose tone of monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve increased its Outlook for growth and inflation, we should see the Central Bank to discuss a preliminary exit strategy, and the Committee can see scope start to normalize monetary policy toward the end of the year, as the recovery gathers pace.
|
Currency
|
GMT
|
EDT
|
Release
|
Expected
|
Prior
|
|
USD
|
14:00
|
10:00
|
Factory Orders
|
-1.70%
|
1.30%
|
|
USD
|
14:30
|
10:30
|
DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories
|
|
3978K
|
|
USD
|
14:30
|
10:30
|
DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory
|
|
574K
|
|
USD
|
14:30
|
10:30
|
DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory
|
|
-3052K
|
|
USD
|
14:30
|
10:30
|
DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories
|
|
-2235K
|
|
USD
|
16:30
|
12:30
|
Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economy in Norfolk
|
|
|
|
EUR
|
17:00
|
13:00
|
Italian Budget Balance (euros) (YTD)
|
|
-28.2B
|
|
EUR
|
17:00
|
13:00
|
Italian Budget Balance (euros)
|
|
-17.5B
|
|
NZD
|
22:45
|
18:45
|
Unemployment Rate
|
6.20%
|
6.30%
|
|
NZD
|
22:45
|
18:45
|
Employment Change (QoQ)
|
0.50%
|
0.10%
|
|
NZD
|
22:45
|
18:45
|
Employment Change (YoY)
|
0.90%
|
1.60%
|
|
NZD
|
22:45
|
18:45
|
Participation Rate (QoQ)
|
68.30%
|
68.20%
|
|
Currency
|
GMT
|
Release
|
Expected
|
Actual
|
Comments
|
|
NZD
|
01:00
|
ANZ Commodity Price (APR)
|
--
|
-4.5%
|
Falls for second month.
|
|
JPY
|
01:30
|
Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)
|
0.2%
|
1.3%
|
Largest advance since July 2010.
|
|
CNY
|
02:30
|
HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR)
|
--
|
49.3
|
Contracts for the sixth month.
|
|
CHF
|
07:30
|
SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (APR)
|
51.0
|
46.9
|
Lowest print since November.
|
|
EUR
|
07:45
|
Italian Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (APR)
|
47.1
|
43.8
|
Contracts for the second month.
|
|
EUR
|
07:50
|
French Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (APR F)
|
47.3
|
46.9
|
|
|
EUR
|
07:55
|
German Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing
|
46.3
|
46.2
|
|
|
EUR
|
07:55
|
German Unemployment Change (APR)
|
-10K
|
19K
|
Rises for the second time this year.
|
|
EUR
|
07:55
|
German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)
|
6.7%
|
6.8%
|
|
|
EUR
|
08:00
|
Italy Unemployment Rate (SA) (MAR P)
|
9.4%
|
9.8%
|
Highest since 2000.
|
|
EUR
|
08:00
|
Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index
Manufacturing (APR)
|
46.0
|
45.9
|
Lowest since June 2009.
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
Purchasing Manager Index Construction
(APR)
|
54.0
|
55.8
|
Slows for the first time since January.
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
Mortgage Approvals (MAR)
|
48.0K
|
49.9K
|
Holds below 50K for the second month.
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
Net Consumer Credit (MAR)
|
0.3B
|
0.4B
|
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)
|
1.0B
|
1.0B
|
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)
|
--
|
-0.8%
|
Contracts for the second straight month.
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)
|
--
|
-5.0%
|
|
|
GBP
|
08:30
|
M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)
|
--
|
6.4%
|
|
|
EUR
|
09:00
|
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)
|
10.9%
|
10.9%
|
Rises to a 15-year high.
|
|
EUR
|
09:00
|
Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)
|
0.6%
|
0.3%
|
Slowest pace of growth since March 2010.
|
|
EUR
|
09:00
|
Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)
|
3.0%
|
2.7%
|
|
|
USD
|
11:00
|
MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 27)
|
--
|
0.1%
|
Rises for the second time in April.
|
|
USD
|
12:15
|
ADP Employment Change (APR)
|
170K
|
119K
|
Smallest advance since September.
|
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