Dollar Breaks Support as S&P 500 Builds on Bullish Reversal Setup

THE TAKEAWAY: The US Dollar broke below a significant support level, opening the door for further weakness, as the S&P 500 built upon a bullish reversal chart formation. S&P 500 – Prices are testing initial resistance at 1357.40 after completing a bullish inverse Head and Shoulders (H&S) pattern with a break above neckline resistance in the 1334.40-41.90 area. A break above this level exposes 1392.10. Broadly speaking, the H&S setup implies a measured objective at 1419.90, conveniently at the year-to-date closing high. The 1334.40-41.90 region has been recast as support.

 Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
CRUDE OIL – Prices continue to tread water between the 23.6% Fibonacci expansionat 81.07 and the June 7 high at the 87.00 figure. A break higher initially exposes 90.14. Alternatively, a push through support targets the 38.2% expansion at 77.34.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
GOLD – Prices pulled back to retest the 61.8%Fibonacci retracementat 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by former resistance at a falling trend line set from early March. A break below here exposes the 1600/oz figure. Near-term resistance remains at 1637.35, the 76.4%Fibonacci retracement, with a break above that exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49.
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
US DOLLAR – Prices broke support in the 10066-70 area marked by a confluence of the 50% Fibonacci retracement and the 38.2% expansion to expose the 61.8% level at 10010. A push through this level targets the 76.4% retracement at 9936. The 10066-70 region has been recast as near-term resistance.
 
Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

$ US Dollar Holds Support as S & P 500 Signals Weakness Ahead

12 June 2012 strategist 02: 33 GMT prevail: the US Dollar has deflected another attempt to push the price past key support S & P 500 technical positioning while warns of renewed weakness before.
S & P 500 - set prices in a model of candlestick bearish engulfing under load-enabled-resistance a trend line fall of mid-April, that the subway is coming. Initial support aligns to 1292.90, with a break in the 1265.30 exhibition. Trend line resistance is now at 1328.90, with a jump over this targeting to barriers to the 1357.40 and 1392.10.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Crude oil - price takes 83.30 14.6% of Fibonacci expansion support, challenge the barrier of 23.6% to 81.07. A break below this limit is 80.00 figure and 38.2% Fib to 77.33. 14.6% Expansion has been redesigned as a short term resistance.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Gold - price remain wedged between 1599.17 and 1582.10, 50% tracing 38.2% Fibonacci levels, respectively. A break already exposes the 61.8% Fib to 1616.23, a barrier reinforced by a trend line that falls in place since early March. Alternatively, a further down the target 1554.73 support, followed by the region of 50 1522-1532 45.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Us DOLLAR - price continue to search direction over support in the region of 10134-43. A break below opens the door to a challenge to the expansion of Fibonacci 38.2% to 10066. Short term resistance aligns to 10220, 61.8% Fib with already impaired targeting 76.4 percent to 10316 border.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

$ US Dollar Finds Support in Haven Demand as Stock Markets Slump

US Dollar wrinkles Haven Demand Higher as Stocks Slump in Asian Trade Soft Eurozone PPI Print May Pressure Euro on ECB Policy Easing Bets Markets Highly Sensitive to QE3 Cues with US Factory Orders on Tap The US Dollar (ticker: USDollar) advanced overnight as Asian stocks declined, boosting demand for the go - to haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 2.2 percent, with markets reacting to Friday's deeply disappointing US employment report. The US is a crucial market for Asian exporters and the sub - by jobs growth reading weighed on future demand and earnings expectations. China's Non-Manufacturing PMI reading released over the weekend compounded selling pressure, showing service-sector activity slowed to the weakest in at least 14 months. The stock-linked Australian and New Zealand Dollars boron the brunt of the selloff in the FX space.
Looking ahead, S & P 500 stock index future are pointing sharply lower, hinting at continued risk aversion that stands to keep the greenback well-supported against most of its leading counterparts. Eurozone PPI figures headline the economic calendar, with expectations calling for wholesale inflation to print at 25-month low of 2.7 percent. The outcome may compound downward pressure on the Euro ahead of Wednesday's ECB policy meeting amid speculation that slumping growth and easing price pressure in the pipeline may allow Mario Draghi and company to boost stimulus efforts.
Later in the day, the spotlight shifts to US Factory Orders figures. Economists' forecasts point to an increase of 0.2 percent in April following a sharp 1.9 percent decline in March. A print in line with expectations is unlikely to prove particularly market-moving in that it would do little to disrupt the overall down trend carved out over the past two years. A disappointing outcome may spark some fireworks however considering markets' likely sensitivity to soft US data releases in the context of QE3 speculation. This means a particularly soft print may see the greenback pressured, particularly against the Japanese Yen and gold.
Asia Session: What Happened
China Non-manufacturing PMI (MAY)
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (MAY)
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (MAY)
Company Operating Profit (QoQ) (1Q)
ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) (MAY)
Euro Session: What to Expect
Euro-Zone Sentix Investor Confidence (JUN)
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (MoM) (APR)
Euro-Zone Producer Price Index (YoY) (APR)
France to Sell 84-357 Day Bills
Critical Levels

Commodities Aim Higher as Risky Assets Find Support, US Data in Focus

Talking Points
Crude Oil, Copper Aim to Follow Stocks Higher as Market Sentiment Recovers Gold and Silver Looking to Balance Cues from Risk Trends, QE3 Expectations Commodity prices are yielding mixed results in European trade as traders wait for guidance from the US economic data set to establish near-term direction cues. May’s US Consumer Confidence reading and the Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity gauge are on tap, with expectations pointing to improvements on both fronts. Broadly speaking, data collected by Citigroup suggests US economic data has stabilized relative to expectations in May after three months of deterioration. This lays the foundation for stronger outcomes to buoy hopes that a firming (albeit unevenly so) recovery in North America can help offset weakness in Europe and Asia.
In the context of heavy selling across the risky asset space over recent weeks, this may help drive a recovery in sentiment. As noted yesterday, this would fall within the context of a general tendency toward corrective profit-taking on risk-off exposure accumulated over recent weeks. This bodes well for growth-geared crude oil and copper prices and may likewise offer a lift to gold and silver amid ebbing demand for the safe-haven US Dollar. Upside momentum in the precious metals space may be limited however in that firmer data would work against QE3 expectations, denting the appeal; of alternative store-of-value assets. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell no Wall Street, reinforcing the likelihood of a risk-on scenario in the hours ahead.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $90.86 // +0.20 // +0.22%
Prices put in a Harami candlestick pattern above resistance-turned-support at 90.14, the September 7 closing high, hinting a corrective bounce may be ahead. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 92.51, a former support marked by the December 16 low, with a push above that targeting 95.41 (another former bottom now acting as resistance at the February 2 low).

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (NY Close): $1580.94 // +7.91 // +0.50%
Prices continue to consolidate above support in the 1522.50-1532.45 area. Near-term trend line support-turned-resistance lines up at 1584.56. A break above this boundary exposes the 1600/oz figure followed by the top of a channel set from late February, now at 1621.73.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.39 // -0.13 // -0.47%
Prices are recovering from support at 27.06 after putting in a Bullish Engulfing candlestick pattern to aim at resistance at 28.70. A break above this level initially exposes 29.71. Alternatively, a reversal through support exposes the 26.05-15 area.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.448 // +0.020 // +0.58%
Prices are mounting a recovery from support at 3.438, the 100%Fibonacci expansion. Positive RSI divergence reinforces the case for an upside scenario. Initial resistance lines up at 3.537, the 76.4% expansion level. Alternatively, a break below support exposes the 123.6% level at 3.327.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0

$$ USDCHF 9500 now awaits the support

The USDCHF exchanged at the height of January which triggers its intra-year reversal. However, this level is a good place for the price consolidate before the largest Bull CV trend. Expect this support to 9499 and 9438 (look inside of the former base channel too) this week.
LEVELS: 9325 9370 9440 9500 9785 9610.

$- USDOLLAR to interim support

Every day bars

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
Index Dow Jones FXCM Dollar (Ticker: USDOLLAR) overturned off the coast of the resistance of the channel. A highest break should finally but probably not before a great need for withdrawal. 10130 support provisional but 10047-10076 is an area of interest in weeks 1-2. 10190 is the resistance.
LEVELS: 10003 10047 10076 10130 10225 10309

:: Rally USD can challenge the expectations of the market, AUD struggles to find support

23 May 2012 16: 15 GMT 

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	10201.88	10203.35	10158.2	0.38	94.30%

The Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.38 percent higher from the open after moving 94 percent of its average true range, and the greenback may continue to appreciate against its major counterparts as market participants scale back their appetite for risk. As the flight to safety gathers pace, we should see the upward trending channel continues to take shape, but we will need to keep a close eye on the relative strength index as it fails to carve out a higher high. As the oscillator continues to come off of overbought territory, the short-term pullback in the index may ultimately turn into a larger correction, and we may see the 10,200 figure provide psychological resistance, but the head-line driven market may continue to prop up the reserve currency as European policy makers struggle to restore investor confidence.
As the USDOLLAR comes up against the upper bounds of the upward trending channel, the greenback looks poised for a correction, and we will be keeping a cautious eye on the relative strength index as it continues to flirt with overbought territory. At the same time, we will be closely watching the 10 - Day SMA (10,090) as it should provide interim support, but we may see the dollar fallback towards the 61.8 percent Fib around 9,949 (higher low) before carving out a higher high. However, as market participants turn their attention to the Summit, the renewed efforts to stem the risk was for contagion may do little to restore investor confidence, and the headlines coming out of the euro-area may continue to increase the appeal of the reserve currency as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system continues to move in their own interest. In turn, the meeting may reveal a growing rift within the EU, and we will maintain our bullish forecast for the USD as it continues to benefit from safe-haven flows.
 Three of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 1.04 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency is likely to face additional headwinds over the next 24-hours of trading as the shift away from risk-taking behavior picks up. As the AUDUSD searches for support, we are looking at the 50.0 percent Fib from the 2010 low to the 2011 high around 0 9570 - 0 9600, and we will preserve bearish outlook for the aussie dollar as interest rate expectations deteriorate. According to Credit Switzerland overnight index swaps, market participants are pricing a 59 percent chance for another 50bp rate cut in June, but see borrowing costs falling by more than 125bp over the next 12-months as the fundamental outlook for the region deteriorates.

The Euro Searches For Support, EU Summit To Provide Little Relief

Talking Points
Euro: EU Summit To Generate Little Support, ECB To Come Under Pressure British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1, Keeps Door Open To Ease Further U.S. Dollar: Index Hits Fresh 2012 High As Flight To Safety Gathers Pace Euro: EU Summit To Generate Little Support, ECB To Come Under Pressure
The Euro bounced back from a fresh yearly low of 1.2563 amid the renewed effort to address the sovereign debt crisis, but the threat of a Greek exit may continue to drag on the single currency as European policy makers continue to move in their own interest. As the EU Summit in Brussels takes center stage, headlines coming out of Europe will continue to heavily influence the EURUSD over the remainder of the week, and the meeting may reveal a growing rift within the group as the anti-austerity movement gathers pace. As French President Francois Hollande pushes for a euro-area bond, German Deputy Finance Minister Thomas Steffen quickly shot down the idea, and the conference may do little to restore investor confidence as the governments operating under the fixed-exchange rate system become increasingly reliant on monetary support.
However, it seems as though the European Central Bank will carry its wait-and-see approach into the second-half of the year in an effort to secure its independence, and it seems as though the Governing Council is moving away from its non-standard measures as they have a limited impact on the real economy. At the same time, the Bundesbank argued that a Greek exit ‘would be significant but manageable within the help of cautious crisis management’ as region struggles to form a coalition government, but the threat of contagion may ultimately trigger a major selloff in the Euro as it sets precedence for the European periphery. As the EURUSD trades back above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement from the 2009 high to the 2010 low around 1.2630-50, the pair may be carving out a short-term floor above the 1.2600 figure, but we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it continues to sit in oversold territory.
British Pound: BoE Votes 8-1, Keeps Door Open To Ease Further
The British Pound quickly pared the overnight decline to 1.5670 as the Bank of England Minutes revealed another 8-1 split within the Monetary Policy Committee, but the sterling may face additional headwinds in the coming days as the central bank keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further. Although the BoE saw a risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation, the MPC said that the longer-term outlook for price growth limits the scope for more quantitative easing, and sees the recovery strengthening later down the line as the euro-area continues to pose a ‘significant threat’ to the U.K. In turn, we should see the BoE stick to its neutral policy stance for most of 2012, but the central bank may continue to move away from its easing cycle amid the stickiness in underling price growth. As the GBPUSD reverts back to the range-bounce price action from earlier this year, we may see the pair come against the 1.5600 to test for support, and we will continue to watch the relative strength index as it slips into oversold territory.
U.S. Dollar: Index Hits Fresh 2012 High As Flight To Safety Gathers Pace
The greenback continued to appreciate against its major counterparts, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) climbing to a fresh yearly high of 10,201, and the reserve currency may gain ground over the remainder of the week as the flight to safety gathers pace. In light of the headline-driven market, dismal developments coming out of the euro-area should continue to sap risk-taking behavior, and we may see the greenback continue to defy market expectations as it benefits from safe-haven flows. However, as the RSI on the USDOLLAR pushes back into overbought territory, we will need a move back below 70 for a short-term correction to take shape, and we will stick with our bullish outlook for the greenback as the fundamental outlook for the world’s largest economy improves.

Euro Tests For Support Ahead Of G8 Summit, Sterling To Lag Behind

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Talking Points

Euro: Remains Oversold, Germany Vows Additional Assistance For Greece British Pound: Rebounds Ahead Of Key Event Risks, BoE Posen Mulls More QE U.S. Dollar: Index Falls Back From Fresh 2012 High Ahead Of G8 Summit Euro: Remains Oversold, Germany Vows Additional Assistance For Greece

The Euro bounced back from a fresh monthly low of 1.2641 as a spokesperson for the EU denied rumors that the group is working on a contingency plan for a Greek exit, while German Chancellor Angela Merkel showed an increased willingness to further assist Greece as the sovereign debt crisis continues to dampen the outlook for the region. At the same time, German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble encourage the EU to ‘form a common position as quickly as possible’ as the group heads into G8 meeting, but warned that debt crisis may continue to weigh on the financial market for another two-years as European policy makers struggle to restore investor confidence.

As the EU maintains a reactionary approach in addressing the risk for contagion, the European Central Bank is certainly coming under increased pressure to shore up the ailing economy, and there’s speculation that the Governing Council will take additional steps at the next meeting on June 6 as the fundamental outlook for the region turns increasingly bleak. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, investors are currently pricing an 11% chance for a 25bp rate, but the ECB may show an increased willingness to target the benchmark interest rate as the non-standard measures have a limited impact in addressing the risks surrounding the region. As the EURUSD continues to trade above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement around 1.2640-50, it seems as though the pair is carving out a short-term base, and we will be keeping a close eye on the relative strength index as it continues to sit in oversold territory. Should the oscillator cross back above 30 next week, we will be watching former support around the 1.3000 figure for new resistance, and we will be looking for opportunities to sell the single currency as we expect to see fresh 2012 lows in the exchange rate.

British Pound: Rebounds Ahead Of Key Event Risks,BoE Posen Mulls More QE

The British Pound regained its footing during the overnight trade, with the GBPUSD snapping back from a fresh monthly low of 1.5731, but the economic developments on tap for the following week may drag on the sterling as the Bank of England turns increasingly dovish. Indeed, we’re expecting to see the headline reading for inflation expand at the slowest pace since September 2010, while the BoE Minutes may reinforce expectations for more quantitative easing as the central bank sees a renewed risk of undershooting the 2% target for price growth. Indeed, Monetary Policy Committee member Adam Posen argued that he may have been overly optimistic on the economy after scaling back his vote to expand the asset purchase program by another GBP 25B, and curbed his outlook for core of inflation despite the stickiness in price growth. Even though we’re seeing the RSI hold above oversold territory, we may see the recent weakness in the GBPUSD gather pace next week as market participants increase bets for additional monetary support, and we may see the pair come up against the 1.5600 figure as it continues to search for support.

U.S. Dollar: Index Falls Back From Fresh 2012 High Ahead Of G8 Summit

The greenback is struggling to hold its ground on Friday, with the Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) falling back from a fresh yearly high of 10,153, and the reserve currency may consolidate throughout the North American trade amid the rebound in risk-taking behavior. As the G8 Summit comes into focus, the group may try to talk up market sentiment, but we don’t expect to see any major developments over the weekend as European policy makers continue to look at the ECB for relief. Nevertheless, as the economic docket for the following week is expected to instill an improved outlook for the U.S., a slew of positive developments should continue to dampen speculation for additional monetary support, and we may see the greenback track higher in the week ahead as the Fed moves away from its easing cycle.

--- Written by David Song, Currency Analyst

To contact David, e-mail dsong@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter at @DavidJSong

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Tokyo Department Store Sales (YoY) (APR)

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Slowest pace of growth since June 2010.

German Producer Prices (YoY) (APR)

Italian Industrial Orders s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

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Italian Industrial Orders n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Italian Industrial Sales s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

Fails to grow for the second time in 2012.

Italian Industrial Sales n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

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Consumer Price Index (YoY) (APR)

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¥ Euro Set to Test Key Support; Looking to Buy into Dip

14 May 2012 11:30 GMT Greek lawmakers fail to form coalition government China announces additional cut to RRR Monday’s economic calendar is light; broader themes in play Eurozone industrial production weaker than expected Aussie below parity but supported on solid data and RBA comments Failure for Greek lawmakers to form a coalition over the weekend leaves the markets in a risk off trade, and the Euro is looking to make fresh declines down towards next key support by 1.2800. Perhaps also potentially weighing on sentiment was the other weekend news, after China came out and announced yet another 50bp cut to the reserve requirement ratio. While we understand that there is reason to react positively to the news on the move for additional accommodation to help stimulate the economy, we also feel that the move underscores the severity of the slowdown in China and the potential impact it will have on correlated economies going forward.
Relative performance versus the USD Monday (as of 11:25GMT)
JPY +0.13%
GBP -0.01%
CHF -0.34%
EUR -0.36%
CAD -0.37%
AUD -0.39%
NZD -0.68%
Overall, the economic calendar for Monday is rather light and we suspect that markets will continue to trade off of broader themes. Eurozone industrial production was however rather discouraging despite some upward revisions, and this continued to pressure the currency. Elsewhere, Aussie has finally broken back below parity, while Kiwi has extended declines and stands out as the gross underperformer on the back of weaker retail sales data. Aussie setbacks have been somewhat supported however by solid local housing finance data and upbeat comments from RBA Lowe. Oversold technicals are also helping to keep the market supported in the 0.9900’s. Moving on, any weakness in the Yen earlier in the day was wiped clean, with USD/JPY reversing course sharply to trade well back under 80.00. It seems that the intensity of the risk off trade has overwhelmed the Yen market with a fresh wave of bids.
TRADE OF THE DAY
EUR/USD: While our core bias remains bearish, at this point we see the probability for some form of a corrective bounce back above 1.3000 before the market is to begin its final descent towards the yearly lows at 1.2625. Daily studies are now oversold, while the market looks to approach next key support in the form of the 78.6% fib retracement of the yearly low-high move by 1.2810. However, any additional short-term setbacks should be limited from there and once this 78.6% fib retracement is tested, technical studies will advocate strongly for a necessary bounce. STRATEGY: BUY @1.2810 FOR A 1.3050 OBJECTIVE; STOP-LOSS 1.2690.

¥ JPY, USD Well Supported on Haven Flows- NZD Searches for Support

 The Japanese yen is the top performer against a stronger greenback ahead of the European close with the USDJPY off by more than 0.26% on the session. Risk aversion flows are in full effect early this week with equity markets off sharply amid ongoing concerns regarding Eurozone stability and headlines regarding JP Morgan’s $2 billion write down late last week. Look for the high yielders to remain under pressure as traders jettison risk assets in favor of the perceived safety of the yen and the reserve currency.
The daily chart shows the USDJPY holding within the confines of a flag formation off the March highs with the exchange rate holding just above the 100-day moving average at 79.70. While our long-term bias on the pair remains weighted to the topside, we continue to eye favorable entries between the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken form the February advance at the 79-figure and the 79.70. A break below the 61.8% extension risks further losses with such a scenario eyeing daily support at the 200-day moving average at 78.40. A break above channel resistance offers further conviction on our directional bias with medium-term topside targets eyed at the 38.2% extension at 80.80 and the 83-figure.
The scalp chart shows the USDJPY breaking back below the 61.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the April 1st and 20th crests at 79.90 before testing soft support at 79.70. Subsequent downside support targets are eyed at the 78.6% extension at 79.40, 79.20 and the 79-handle. Interim resistance now stands with the 61.8% extension at 79.70 backed by channel resistance at 81.10. A close above this mark alleviates some of the downside pressure with topside resistance targets seen at the 38.2% extension at 80.60 and 80.85. Look for the pair to remain under pressure throughout the session as risk-off flows continue to support the yen with a move towards the 79-handle offering favorable long entries.
Key Levels/Indicators
The New Zealand dollar is the weakest performer in early US trade with a loss of more than 0.78% on the session. The high yielder remains at risk as broader sentiment remains under pressure with the daily chart showing the kiwi breaking below the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken for the December advance at 7845. Daily objectives are eyed at 7750 and the 78.6% retracement at 7675 with only a move back above the confluence of former channel support and the 61.8 retracement at 7845 likely to alleviate further downside pressure. Should a move would need to be supported by a rebound in broader risk sentiment.
The scalp chart shows the NZDUSD continuing to trade within the confines of a descending channel formation dating back to the April 27th high with the pair currently testing interim support at the 138.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the February 29th and April 12th crests at 7755. Subsequent downside targets are seen at 7720, the 77-figure, and the 161.8% extension at 7660. Interim resistance stands at 7780 and is backed by the 123.6% extension at 78.15 and channel resistance. We remain bearish on the kiwi with intra-day rallies offering fresh short-scalp opportunities. Note that only a breach above channel resistance would negate our short-term directional bias.

$$ NZDUSD Tests décembre résistance comme Support

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IN GENERAL - continue to watch crude, which has been leading markets on the way down. Near term focus is on the December low and resistance is 9865. Ditto on copper (see below), which also exhibits a well-constructed 2 year head and shoulders top.

Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT


Prepared by Jamie Saettele, CMT
A 3rd wave interpretation is valid in the DAX. The implications are for acceleration of weakness towards 6170 (former resistance and 200 day SMA) although it is worth noting that price still faces trendline support.
Given the potential for an extended decline in everything (crude, copper, equities), I favor trading the AUDUSD and NZDUSD. There will be sharp short covering rallies along the way and aggressive traders may wish to trade from both the long and short side. The NZDUSD in particular is at support now. Levels are noted
AUDUSD – 10225 10165 10110 10045 9860
NZDUSD – 7990 7940 7880 78107740 (2012 low)

-Y- Yen Well Supported on Weak NFPs - AUD Searches for Support

Daily Losers & Winners

The Japanese yen is the top performer in early US trade with an advance of 0.43% against the dollar. A weaker-than-expected print on April non-farm payrolls weighed heavily on broader risk sentiment after the report showed the addition of just 115K jobs last month, missing consensus estimates calling for a print of 160K. While the unemployment rate surprisingly declined to 8.1% from 8.2%, it’s important to note that the decline can largely be attributed to discouraged workers leaving the labor force with participation rate falling from 63.8% to 63.6%. The data prompted risk aversion flows that have continued to support the yen with the dollar seeing a mixed performance as the weak data fuels speculation of further quantitative easing from the Fed.
The daily chart shows the USDJPY continuing to trade within the confines of a flag formation off the March highs with the pair breaking back below the 80-figure on the back of today’s NFP print. Initial daily support now rests with the 100-day moving average at 79.60 backed by the key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the February advance at 79-figure. Daily resistance stands with channel resistance and the 38.2% retracement at 80.80.

The scalp chart shows the pair holding just above the 161.8% Fibonacci extension taken from the March 21st and the April 1st crests at 79.85 an hour into US trade. Subsequent soft support targets are seen at 79.65, 79.35, with the 200% extension at 79.05 offering ideal long entries. Interim resistance stands at 80.10 backed by the 138.2% extension at 80.35 and 80.65. While our long-term outlook for the USDJPY remains weighted to the topside, we look for entries below 79.65.
Key Levels/Indicators

The Australian dollar is the weakest performer among the majors with a decline of 0.78% on the session. The high yielder has continued to track market sentiment with the AUDUSD breaking below key daily support at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement taken from the December advance at 1.0240. As noted in Tuesday’s report, this level was our weekly target with today’s decline risking further losses for the aussie moving forward. The RBA’s monetary policy report released overnight has also added to the bearish tone with the central bank lowering growth and inflation forecasts citing risks to global growth ‘remain on the downside.’ Daily support is now seen at 1.0165 backed by the 78.6% retracement at 1.0075.

The scalp chart shows the AUDUSD moving back below former channel resistance dating back to 2/29 before finding solace around the 138.2% Fibonacci extension taken from the April 12th and 27th crests at 1.0190. Subsequent support targets are seen lower at 1.0170, the 161.8% extension at 1.0140 and the 1.01-figure. Interim resistance now stands with the 123.6% extension at 1.0220 backed by 1.0240 and the 100% extension at 1.0270. We continue to favor the downside on the aussie moving forward with rallies offering fresh short entries.
Key Levels/Indicators.

USD Index Threatens Bearish Channel, AUD Approaching Key Support

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Par David Song, analyste de monnaie 02 mai 2012 16:10 GMT l'indice Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar (Ticker : USDollar) reste plus élevée le jour après son arrivée à 87 pour cent de sa gamme vraie moyenne de 0,31 %, et le changement de comportement de prise de risque devrait continuer à soutenir la monnaie de réserve car elle profite des coulées de refuge. Cependant, comme l'index se démène pour tenir au-dessus de soutien ancien environ 9 900, la figure peut agir comme une nouvelle résistance et nous pourrions assister le billet vert consolider avant la fin de la semaine comme le canal de tendance à la baisse continue de prendre forme. À son tour, la remontée de l'USD peut être de courte durée, mais le billet vert pourrait finalement percée de la formation de baissière devraient les développements qui sortent de la plus grande économie du monde imbiber des attentes en matière de soutien financier supplémentaire.

Il semble que l'USDOLLAR a trouvé un soutien provisoire autour le retracement de Fibonacci de 50,0 % environ 9 830, mais continue de la divergence de l'indice de force relative à une perspective baissière pour le billet vert qu'il maintient la tendance à la baisse de mars. Néanmoins, il semble que le président Fed de San Francisco, John Williams rejoint Dennis Lockhart et Jeffery Lacker, qui tous servent sur le FOMC cette année, il prend note de la reprise plus robuste, et il semble que le Comité continuera à s'éloigner de son cycle de faciliter cette année que la croissance et l'inflation se rassemblent de l'APCE. Comme les perspectives fondamentales pour l'économie mondiale s'améliore, nous pourrions assister la Fed à mettre au point une stratégie de sortie provisoire dans la seconde moitié de l'année, et le déplacement dans les perspectives de la politique remet certainement une prévision optimiste pour l'USD comme les acteurs du marché à l'échelle arrière spéculations de3.

Le dollar se rallie à travers la Commission mercredi, dirigé par une baisse de 0,63 % dans la zone Euro, tandis que le dollar australien a fragilisé un autre 0,30 % au milieu du vol à la sécurité. Pendant ce temps, Credit Suisse nuits indice swaps continueront afin de tenir compte des attentes de plus faibles coûts d'emprunt, avec le prix de la Reserve Bank of Australia pour abaisser le taux d'intérêt de référence par près de 75bp au cours des 12 prochains mois, les acteurs du marché et la monnaie à haut rendement peut continuer de donner en retour l'avance du plus tôt cette année, la Banque centrale semble faire son cycle de détente dans la seconde moitié de l'année. Bien que nous sommes toujours baissier sur l'AUDUSD, nous devons voir soutien vers 1.0200 céder le pas à voir la paire de se replier vers les 38.2 % Fib du Bas 2010 à 2011 haute autour de 0.9930-50, et nous pourrions assister à l'aussie venir sous une pression accrue sur les prochaines 24 heures de trading rapport sur la politique monétaire de la RBA devrait accroître la spéculation pour une série de réductions des taux.

---Écrit par David Song, analyste de la monnaie

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2 Mai 2012 16:10 GMT mai, 01:16:15 GMT USD Index sculpter plu faible, Sterling Correction en vertu de la WayApr, 26 16:15 GMT USD recherche pour soutien devant 1 q PIB, Outlook JPY baissier sur BoJApr, 25 USD 14:45 GMT, sur le point de rassemblement sur moins Fed Colombe, Sterling Correction en vertu de la WayApr, 24 15:55 GMT USD continue à construire la Base avant du FOMC, JPY en péril sur les PolicyApr de la BOJ23:16:00 GMT USD Index détient la clé soutien, AUD yeux 1.02 avant du risque d'événement majeur

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€ Swale Euro training In Focus, Sterling, support research

Discussion points
Euro: ECB to knock your dove in the Middle risk for prolonged recession pound sterling: current Correction, the prospects remain optimistic on the Dollar of BoE: Index of 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap Euro tests: ECB to knock your Dove the medium risk for prolonged recession
The Euro slipped to a weekly minimum fee of 1.3120 as the weakening of the market of work associated with the decline in manufacturing of increased the risk of a prolonged recession, and the EURUSD can continue to rebound from the previous month, as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on the real economy. Indeed, the Portugal auction EUR 1 b 12 months good performance 3.908 percent, which compares the % 3.652 offered in March, and there could be a little more moderate the European Central Bank, this time as fundamental for the region perspectives more dark.
Although the ECB should largely to maintain its current position of the policy in may, Central Bank Chairman Mario Draghi may seek to target the reference interest rate as the non-standard measures have limited impact with regard to the risks to the region, and we could attend the Board of Governors to carry its relaxation cycle in the second half of the year : the Governments under the single currency become more and more dependent on monetary support. The EURUSD resumed a series of senior lower in April, we will paste by our forecasts down for the pair, and that we are still a strong bond of the exchange rate as price action continues to approach the apex of the triangle down. In return, we need a significant break and a fence below 1.3000 to see bearish formation pan, and we should see the entering fall to Fibonacci 23.6% of the top 2009-2010 allows low around 1. 2630-50 as European policy makers trying to reduce the risks surrounding the area.
Pound sterling: Correction underway, Outlook remains optimistic on the BoE
The pound extended the decline of the previous day as participants in the market reduced their appetite for risk, and the correction in the short term in the GBPUSD may gather pace for the rest of the week, then that index of upcoming continuing relative strength in the territory of surachat. However, as the economic recovery in the United Kingdom brings together progressively the pace, we should see the Bank of England continue to move away from its relaxation cycle, and we are looking for charges annual highs in the GBPUSD as the pair maintains the trend since the beginning of this year. As Governor of the BoE Mervyn King is expected to speak later today, bellicose comments of the head of the Central Bank should support the sterling, but the GBPUSD may continue to fall back to the old resistance around 1.6000 he is seeking for support.
US dollar: Index 9 900, Lacker Fed on tap test
The greenback has continued to return on the decline of the previous month, with the Dow Jones - FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) advancing to a maximum of 9 902 and the reserve currency may appreciate more during trade in North America, as the flight to safety is the pace. As the economic record is still light enough for the rest of the day, we should see trends risk dictate the action price through the major currencies, but the fresh batch of comments from the Fed Chairman of Richmond Jeffery Lacker can trigger a bullish reaction in the greenback as the FOMC Member adopted a bellicose tone of monetary policy. As the US Federal Reserve increased its Outlook for growth and inflation, we should see the Central Bank to discuss a preliminary exit strategy, and the Committee can see scope start to normalize monetary policy toward the end of the year, as the recovery gathers pace.

Currency	GMT	EDT	Release	Expected	Prior
USD	14:00	10:00	Factory Orders	-1.70%	1.30%
USD	14:30	10:30	DOE U.S. Crude Oil Inventories		3978K
USD	14:30	10:30	DOE Cushing OK Crude Inventory		574K
USD	14:30	10:30	DOE U.S. Distillate Inventory		-3052K
USD	14:30	10:30	DOE U.S. Gasoline Inventories		-2235K
USD	16:30	12:30	Fed's Lacker Speaks on Economy in Norfolk
EUR	17:00	13:00	Italian Budget Balance (euros) (YTD)		-28.2B
EUR	17:00	13:00	Italian Budget Balance (euros)		-17.5B
NZD	22:45	18:45	Unemployment Rate	6.20%	6.30%
NZD	22:45	18:45	Employment Change (QoQ)	0.50%	0.10%
NZD	22:45	18:45	Employment Change (YoY)	0.90%	1.60%
NZD	22:45	18:45	Participation Rate (QoQ)	68.30%	68.20%

Currency	GMT	Release	Expected	Actual	Comments
NZD	01:00	ANZ Commodity Price (APR)	--	-4.5%	Falls for second month.
JPY	01:30	Labor Cash Earnings (YoY) (MAR)	0.2%	1.3%	Largest advance since July 2010.
CNY	02:30	HSBC Manufacturing PMI (APR)	--	49.3	Contracts for the sixth month.
CHF	07:30	SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (APR)	51.0	46.9	Lowest print since November.
EUR	07:45	Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)	47.1	43.8	Contracts for the second month.
EUR	07:50	French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR F)	47.3	46.9
EUR	07:55	German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing	46.3	46.2
EUR	07:55	German Unemployment Change (APR)	-10K	19K	Rises for the second time this year.
EUR	07:55	German Unemployment Rate s.a. (APR)	6.7%	6.8%
EUR	08:00	Italy Unemployment Rate (SA) (MAR P)	9.4%	9.8%	Highest since 2000.
EUR	08:00	Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (APR)	46.0	45.9	Lowest since June 2009.
GBP	08:30	Purchasing Manager Index Construction (APR)	54.0	55.8	Slows for the first time since January.
GBP	08:30	Mortgage Approvals (MAR)	48.0K	49.9K	Holds below 50K for the second month.
GBP	08:30	Net Consumer Credit (MAR)	0.3B	0.4B
GBP	08:30	Net Lending Sec. on Dwellings (MAR)	1.0B	1.0B
GBP	08:30	M4 Money Supply (MoM) (MAR)	--	-0.8%	Contracts for the second straight month.
GBP	08:30	M4 Money Supply (YoY) (MAR)	--	-5.0%
GBP	08:30	M4 Ex IOFCs 3M Annualised (MAR)	--	6.4%
EUR	09:00	Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAR)	10.9%	10.9%	Rises to a 15-year high.
EUR	09:00	Italy Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAR)	0.6%	0.3%	Slowest pace of growth since March 2010.
EUR	09:00	Italy Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)	3.0%	2.7%
USD	11:00	MBA Mortgage Applications (APR 27)	--	0.1%	Rises for the second time in April.
USD	12:15	ADP Employment Change (APR)	170K	119K	Smallest advance since September.