30 June 2012 02: 54 GMT 
fundamental forecasts for the Dollar: Howser
An end very volatile week of trading of foreign currency has left the Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) lower through the Council and a critic of us given market work and decisions of global interest rates Central Bank set for big moves through the first week of the month and quarter.
Dollar in a potentially stretch heads pivot with weakness as index Dow Jones FXCM posted Dollar daily decline like important since the European Union announced its previous in October 2011 Grand Rescue Agreement. FITTING - the recent American dollar liquidation began on the announcement of the agreement of most recent rescue of the European Summit of highly anticipated.
What has happened in the past is never a guarantee of what will happen in the future, but it is very interesting to note that the huge EURUSD rally on the Summit of the 27/10/2011 marked the exact Euro Summit. Similarly, the USDOLLAR collapsed and bottom this day, going on to surge in the next week and the rest of the year.
Might be repeated history? It is certainly possible; the beginning of the week, month, quarter means that the time has come for a shift in the trend. Yet even the purest of market technicians agree that week next risk of fundamental event could make or break the USDOLLAR price action in the foreseeable future.
We cannot underestimate the importance of seasonality in the forex markets, and the coming days could easily set the tone for the month of July and the third quarter of the year. In this spirit, we will pay particularly attention to non-farm of the Friday payroll data. The usual mixture of data economic pre - NFP and similarly important reserve of Australia Bank, Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions will keep traders on their toes in the earlier action of the award.
Expectations point to another week of mostly disappointing us figures for economic growth, and the non-farm payroll report will likely show that the national unemployment rate is stubbornly remained high on dull jobs growth. Yet the reactions of markets for the recent announcements of the European Summit point out that defining a low bar is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, forecasts little leave ample room for positive surprises and, potentially, a reaction distributed on the rise of the Dollar to the NFP data.
Otherwise, we will keep an eye on the decisions of primary rate of Central Bank from the Reserve Bank of Australia and finishing the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Each decision is controversial, and each of the RBA, BOE and the ECB could rattle markets. Overnight Index Swaps, the RBA is unlikely move rates. Even the Aussie Dollar traders will want to see how the Central Bank responds to the turbulence of the financial markets and implications for national yields. Surprises delivered could carry in other currencies high performance and risk relatively high against the US Dollar of refuge.
The same night Index Swaps show a non-trivial probability that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will also facilitate monetary policy. The BOE can expand its balance sheet and buy the debt of the Government of the United Kingdom as a method of quantitative easing - increase in the money supply and probably the value of the pound sterling weakened. Interest rate traders predicted a 40% chance that the ECB will reduce the interest rate on clear European constraints. These two events could really forcing European currencies pairs main kicking - especially against the U.S. currency.
Must be another eventful week of forex trading, and it is little exaggeration to say that the coming days could set the tone for the US Dollar price action in the next month and the rest of the quarter. -DR
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
Learn forex trading with a free account for practice and exchange of FXCM charts.
30 June 2012 02: 54 GMT
fundamental forecasts for the Dollar: HowserAn end very volatile week of trading of foreign currency has left the Dollar (ticker: USDOLLAR) lower through the Council and a critic of us given market work and decisions of global interest rates Central Bank set for big moves through the first week of the month and quarter.
Dollar in a potentially stretch heads pivot with weakness as index Dow Jones FXCM posted Dollar daily decline like important since the European Union announced its previous in October 2011 Grand Rescue Agreement. FITTING - the recent American dollar liquidation began on the announcement of the agreement of most recent rescue of the European Summit of highly anticipated.
What has happened in the past is never a guarantee of what will happen in the future, but it is very interesting to note that the huge EURUSD rally on the Summit of the 27/10/2011 marked the exact Euro Summit. Similarly, the USDOLLAR collapsed and bottom this day, going on to surge in the next week and the rest of the year.
Might be repeated history? It is certainly possible; the beginning of the week, month, quarter means that the time has come for a shift in the trend. Yet even the purest of market technicians agree that week next risk of fundamental event could make or break the USDOLLAR price action in the foreseeable future.
We cannot underestimate the importance of seasonality in the forex markets, and the coming days could easily set the tone for the month of July and the third quarter of the year. In this spirit, we will pay particularly attention to non-farm of the Friday payroll data. The usual mixture of data economic pre - NFP and similarly important reserve of Australia Bank, Bank of England and European Central Bank rate decisions will keep traders on their toes in the earlier action of the award.
Expectations point to another week of mostly disappointing us figures for economic growth, and the non-farm payroll report will likely show that the national unemployment rate is stubbornly remained high on dull jobs growth. Yet the reactions of markets for the recent announcements of the European Summit point out that defining a low bar is not necessarily a bad thing. Indeed, forecasts little leave ample room for positive surprises and, potentially, a reaction distributed on the rise of the Dollar to the NFP data.
Otherwise, we will keep an eye on the decisions of primary rate of Central Bank from the Reserve Bank of Australia and finishing the Bank of England and the European Central Bank. Each decision is controversial, and each of the RBA, BOE and the ECB could rattle markets. Overnight Index Swaps, the RBA is unlikely move rates. Even the Aussie Dollar traders will want to see how the Central Bank responds to the turbulence of the financial markets and implications for national yields. Surprises delivered could carry in other currencies high performance and risk relatively high against the US Dollar of refuge.
The same night Index Swaps show a non-trivial probability that the Bank of England and the European Central Bank will also facilitate monetary policy. The BOE can expand its balance sheet and buy the debt of the Government of the United Kingdom as a method of quantitative easing - increase in the money supply and probably the value of the pound sterling weakened. Interest rate traders predicted a 40% chance that the ECB will reduce the interest rate on clear European constraints. These two events could really forcing European currencies pairs main kicking - especially against the U.S. currency.
Must be another eventful week of forex trading, and it is little exaggeration to say that the coming days could set the tone for the US Dollar price action in the next month and the rest of the quarter. -DR
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
Learn forex trading with a free account for practice and exchange of FXCM charts.
30 June 2012 02: 54 GMT
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