$$Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t

Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t Euro Little Moved by Spanish Bank Downgrades, Greek Bond Sale New Zealand Dollar Traders Ready for the RBNZ Rate Decision Swiss Franc: Upgraded Growth Forecast, Negative Yields Set Stage for SNB Japanese Yen Looking More Exposed after IMF Calls More BoJ Action British Pound Rises Despite BoE’s Tucker Building the Call for Stimulus Gold Climbs Against Dollar as Liquidity Demand Relaxes Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t
When the capital markets are tumbling and fear of financial seizures hits panicked levels, there is no better currency to jump to than the US dollar. Yet, under most other circumstances, the greenback either struggles to keep pace or is an outright liability. It may seem that with the pained backdrop for growth, yields and financial stability alongside the uncertainty heading into the Greek election that the dollar should find a natural buoyancy; but a pause in volatility is just as burdensome to the benchmark as a mild risk-positive sentiment. We can see this particular situation weighing on the greenback now. Though Monday’s risk-positive, anti-dollar drive didn’t stick; we are still trending in that direction. Technical traders will recognize the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is carving out a conspicuous reversal pattern against 10,150.
Volatility can work both for and against a currency or asset in general, as long as the swell in activity supports the fundamental bearing of the asset (generally risk appetite or risk aversion). For the greenback, however, volatility itself is the critical component. The dollar isn’t a traditional safe haven. Its true value comes through the combination of its liquidity and transparency. These are properties best exemplified when there is an active deleveraging of any and all risk-sensitive assets alongside a wholesale need for liquidity. Up until last week, that was a major boon for the dollar. The equities-based VIX Index hit a six-month high 27.5 percent and the FX equivalent set a high for the year of 12.3 percent.
In contrast, we have seen both ‘fear’ measures back off significantly this week. Given the high-level risk that the Eurozone crisis could spread next week with the Greek vote and/or another round of short-term stimulus from the Fed draw in waves of speculators; there is a distinct sense that it is better to wait until a clear path is chosen by the markets. This hesitation has a notable effect on volatility and subsequently the dollar. Add to any leveling off in risk trends a boost to QE3 expectations, and the dollar will find itself particularly exposed just off of 18-month highs.
Euro Little Moved by Spanish Bank Downgrades, Greek Bond Sale
The fundamental headlines from the Euro stream were discouraging, but not pressing enough to shake traders’ focus from the main event this coming weekend. Fear that the Euro-area crisis can spread or intensify is particularly strong, but the Greek electionis seen as a game changer (especially if it doesn’t turn out favorably for the Monetary Union). Of concern this past trading session, the most remarkable scheduled event was the Greek bond auction. The government has grown reliant on shorter-term funding to supplement the shortfall in its two rescue programs. That said, regional banks are steady buyers of this paper, preventing the reflection of the market’s feelings on the economy’s health. That said, the 4.73 percent yield drawn on the €1.625 billion sale is still excessive. In other news, Fitch announced downgraded 18 Spanish banks. This doesn’t surprise in the wake of the sovereign cut though. Similarly, German Chancellor Merkel and ECB member Asmussen’s suggestion that Eurobond were not the answer to the current crisis should be imprinted on every euro traders’ brain at this point.
New Zealand Dollar Traders Ready for the RBNZ Rate Decision
The kiwi has advanced against every one of its counterparts this past week as risk trends tentatively bounce and its particular yield backdrop drives draws a dramatic contrast against its major contemporaries. Against all but the Australian currency, the kiwi dollar provides a decent carry (more so at government bond rates than benchmark and deposit alternatives). And, against the Aussie, a 12-month forecast for 15 bps worth of cuts from the RBNZ offers a sizable advantage to the RBA’s projected 100 bps of further easing. In fact, easing expectations may be somewhat excessive. According to overnight swaps there is a 13 percent probability of 25bp cut at the upcoming rate decision due at 21:00 GMT, but fundamentals and recent commentary Governor Bollard suggests that is highly unlikely. The question therefore is whether there is enough latent, bearish positioning on the chance of a rate cut that a correction follows a hold. More interesting will be Bollard’s testimony before Parliament.
Swiss Franc: Upgraded Growth Forecast, Negative Yields Set Stage for SNB
We have set the scene for the Swiss National Bank’s second quarter rate decision for some time now. The higher-level concerns of the steadfast deterioration in the European financial situation has provided a constant pressure for policy officials to switch from its defensive stance to a more proactive effort (raise the floor on EURCHF, introduce capital curbs, etc). Yet, this is a well-worn speculative scenario and one that has essentially lost its mystique. Meanwhile, recent developments perhaps project a diminished need for / return in further SNB effort. The SECO 2012 GDP forecast was upgraded from 0.8 to 1.4 percent. Further, a threat of negative rates means little as 2-5 year yields are already negative.
Japanese Yen Looking More Exposed after IMF Calls More BoJ Action
The Bank of Japan won’t likely find greater support to pull out all the stops on its effort to force the Japanese yen lower. We have already seen the government demand more asset purchases in an effort to drive the currency lower – and Prime Minister Noda’s cabinet has even nominated two stimulus-favoring candidates to fill empty central bank posts. Now, the IMF is even supporting the call – calling the yen overbought. This is effectively tacit approval from the organization’s members to go ahead with manipulation. Will they take advantage Friday? Would it be effective?
British Pound Rises Despite BoE’s Tucker Building the Call for Stimulus
The sterling made notable progress against all but its highest-yielding major counterparts. That is an interesting fundamental reflection of the currency’s health. And yet, the outlook for monetary policy (the return component in the risk/reward balance) took a notable slip this past session. The MPC’s Tucker said Tuesday that the BoE must do more to ease the strain on the UK and its markets. Point for stimulus.
Gold Climbs Against Dollar as Liquidity Demand Relaxes
Gold posted its biggest advance this past session since the massive June 1 rally. Despite the progress behind the move, this doesn’t seem to be a push that has staying power for a trend. The stimulus effects of the Spanish rescue should be as priced in as possible and QE3 expectations won’t make much progress to next Wednesday. More prominent now is the dollar’s own slide as the slip in volatility curbs its liquidity appeal.
For Real Time Forex News, visit:http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go towww.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Negative for the first time since April 2011, expresses expectations slowing economy.
Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUN)
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)
French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
CPI (YoY) declining since Jan 1st, Reduces pressure on the ECB to maintain inflation
French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY)
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY F)
Germany’s price pressure is the backbone the ECB’s inflation fight.
German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY F)
French Current Account (euros) (APR)
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (MAY F)
YoY figure declined to January levels. Italy leading inflation among top EuroZone.
Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY F)
Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (APR)
4th month in negative territory, adds economic slowdown pressure.
Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR)
MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 8)
Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)
PPI down 5% from September highs.
Reduces pressure on Fed to maintain inflation.
Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAY)
Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY)
Indicator of the health of the economy, weak prints would further justify need for stimulus.
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos (MAY)
Advance Retail Sales Less Auto & Gas (MAY)
Advance Retail Sales "Control Group" (MAY)
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Speaks on U.S. Economy
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visitTechnical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit ourPivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
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$: Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End

Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End Euro: Moving Away from Scheduled Event Risk to Rumor and Panic British Pound Takes a Shot Across the Bow by Posen Japanese Yen Traders Wonder: Will the BoJ Up Stimulus, Does it Matter? Swiss Franc: Will the SNB Simply Wait for a Eurozone Explosion to Act? Australian Dollar Plunges Fresh 7 Month Lows as Speculative Interest Nearly Flips Gold Capitalizes on Dollar’s Weakness, Posts Biggest Two-Day Rally Since October Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End
The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index put in for its first two-day bearish performance in three weeks Thursday and Friday, but this was more a technical development than a trend change. Ending the week at exactly 10,100 (the breaking point for the 16-months of congestion prior to Wednesday’s drive), we can see that the market is hesitant to abandon the safe haven dollar so quickly. The disappointing performance for the greenback is particularly surprising when we look to what the more traditional gauges of risk appetite had done through the close. The S&P 500 – often sheltered from the winds of risk by the open-ended hope of further stimulus from the Fed – dropped for a sixth consecutive session (the longest bear run since November 25) to a four-month low below 1300. Why is the high-risk barometer dropping and the key safe haven not taking advantage? Intensity. Volatility is a critical factor to the dollar’s performance. Without panic, a negative, real US rate of return dissuades.
Euro: Moving Away from Scheduled Event Risk to Rumor and Panic
The euro managed to advance against all of its most liquid majors Friday. Did the fundamental headlines improve through the final trading session? No. That said, they didn’t exactly build in bearish intensity either. After such an aggressive selloff, we have to assume that a significant amount of pain has been priced in for the shared currency. The question is whether it stands at enough of a discount to accurately represent the troubles that lie ahead. That is unlikely. Through Friday’s session, there was more rumor than actual headline news. Spain reportedly revised its final 2011 budget deficit numbers up to 8.9 percent (from 8.5) and LCH (the clearing house) raised its margin requirements to trade Spanish government bonds, but that is hardly headline-worthy news. Far more interesting were reports that German Chancellor Merkel was calling on Greek officials to put a referendum for the country to remain in the EU up for vote alongside the governmental election. This was later refuted by one of the Chancellor’s spokespeople, but Greek officials took it seriously enough to angrily reply. Another rumor early Saturday is that Greece would look to exit the Euro Zone come Monday. That is an unlikely scenario under a caretaker government. Keep watching the feeds next week.
British Pound Takes a Shot Across the Bow by Posen
You don’t need to be a fundamental expert to recognize that the sterling has lost a serious strut to its bullish foundation. The sterling dropped 2.8 percent against the yen and 1.6 percent against the dollar this past week. Why would the pound take up a risk sensitivity when not too long ago, it was seemed completely immune to such changes in tide? The shift is in subtle rate expectations. Not long ago, the dollar fought the current under a short-lived surge in rate expectations, and this was the pound’s turn. That turn, however, is over. The double dip recession brought doubt, but perma-dove Adam Posen confirmed expectations Friday by suggestion more QE may be needed. That said, he will exit in August.
Japanese Yen Traders Wonder: Will the BoJ Up Stimulus, Does it Matter?
USDJPY closed virtually at its low for the day Friday and subsequently set a fresh three month low. One of the most common questions that traders ask me happens to be: when is the right time to go long USDJPY. Those that ask are often looking for a hard level, but a line in the sand will not be deciding factor with this pair. Far more important here is the momentum. There is some fundamentally balance to this pair (both currencies are safe havens, low yielders, have tremendous debt loads) but when we look further into the future, we see that the dollar has an advantage of both absolute liquidity demand, structural economic projections and a return of yield. The balance now falls to the cross winds that are coming off of the more effectual carry pairs unwind. Against that backdrop, is there any weight being assigned to the BoJ meeting?
Swiss Franc: Will the SNB Simply Wait for a Eurozone Explosion to Act?
Don’t let the 7 pip average daily range on EURCHF fool you. There is tremendous pressure behind this pair. On one side, we have an unstoppable force – risk aversion specifically sourced from Europeans’ fears that their capital is in jeopardy. On the other, the immovable object – the SNB holding the line at 1.2000 with a pledge of unlimited intervention to maintain the floor. Yet, Friday’s close (1.2005) is the second lowest since the unusual policy effort was introduced, and it reminds us that something has to give. If the Swiss central bank is determined to sit on its hands, it could very well be their pledge that is broken as the Euro-region crisis intensifies. They no doubt realize this truth. And, if they realize it, they are likely weighing their options. The question is: what would it take to approve the nuclear option?
Australian Dollar Plunges Fresh 7 Month Lows as Speculative Interest Nearly Flips
Though the greenback’s losses were not doubt offering some counter-trend, bullish pressure on AUDUSD; the pair would not break stride. A 13th decline in the past 15 active trading days speaks to a very serious trend. General risk aversion (headed by the S&P 500) certainly supported momentum, but there was perhaps a level of gravity to Friday’s move that outpaced a simply risk aversion push on carry unwind. A morning Chinese business sentiment indicator was modestly disappointing, but the real hit for the carry currency was in its yield (both current and outlook). The benchmark 10-year Australian government bond yield was already on the decline, but Friday saw an unexpected plunge that brought the rate to a generational low 3.08 percent. In turn, the swaps market is now pricing in a certainty of a 25 basis point cut next next with a near 75 percent chance of a 50 basis point move, and the 12 month forecast has jumped from a quarter-point in a day (to 126 bps).
Gold Capitalizes on Dollar’s Weakness, Posts Biggest Two-Day Rally Since October
Now this is what a reversal from an oversold position looks like. When a market or individual asset overruns its fundamental boundaries leveraged by speculation rather than fundamentals, the subsequent correction is often just as dramatic. Gold put in for an impressive back-to-back rally Thursday and Friday (2.2 and 1.2 percent respectively) for the best two-day performance since October 26. However, we need to run this impressive move through the fundamental process. The previous metal’s decline has been heavily influenced by the strength of the US dollar. The greenback certainly lost its pace through the end of the week, but it didn’t correct with the same level of veracity as was seen in gold. The disconnect comes from the fact that in the place of the dollar’s influence, we were reminded of European (and global) risks concerns.
For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
New Zealand suffering net outmigration for most months since Feb 2011 earthquake
Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (May)
UK home prices remain sluggish, with homeowners squeezed by austerity policies and stagnant wages
Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (May)
Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) (Apr)
Generally resilient, but high unemployment and modest disaster recovery could weigh on NZ consumer spending
Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Apr)
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Mar)
Japanese economy exhibiting signs of stronger recovery in 1Q 2012
SECO Consumer Confidence (Apr)
Swiss consumer confidence beginning to recovery after falling sharply on economic slowdown
Convenience Store Sales YoY (Apr)
Liquidity ample as SNB maintains zero interest rate policy
Eurozone Construction Output SA MoM (Mar)
Construction has plummeted since start of 2012 in part due to cold weather, but recessions in key Eurozone economies also a factor
Eurozone Construction Output WDA YoY (Mar)
Italian Current Account (mlns euro) (Mar)
Lack of global competitiveness remains an important obstacle to Italy’s economic prospects
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Apr)
One of the indicators showing signs of weakness in US economy
SNB Publishes Monthly Bulletin
Fed’s Lockhart Speaks on Monetary Policy in Tokyo
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

- $ Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End

Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End Euro: Moving Away from Scheduled Event Risk to Rumor and Panic British Pound Takes a Shot Across the Bow by Posen Japanese Yen Traders Wonder: Will the BoJ Up Stimulus, Does it Matter? Swiss Franc: Will the SNB Simply Wait for a Eurozone Explosion to Act? Australian Dollar Plunges Fresh 7 Month Lows as Speculative Interest Nearly Flips Gold Capitalizes on Dollar’s Weakness, Posts Biggest Two-Day Rally Since October Dollar Stumbles but Doesn’t Break Trend Into Week End The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index put in for its first two-day bearish performance in three weeks Thursday and Friday, but this was more a technical development than a trend change. Ending the week at exactly 10,100 (the breaking point for the 16-months of congestion prior to Wednesday’s drive), we can see that the market is hesitant to abandon the safe haven dollar so quickly. The disappointing performance for the greenback is particularly surprising when we look to what the more traditional gauges of risk appetite had done through the close. The S&P 500 – often sheltered from the winds of risk by the open-ended hope of further stimulus from the Fed – dropped for a sixth consecutive session (the longest bear run since November 25) to a four-month low below 1300. Why is the high-risk barometer dropping and the key safe haven not taking advantage? Intensity. Volatility is a critical factor to the dollar’s performance. Without panic, a negative, real US rate of return dissuades.
Euro: Moving Away from Scheduled Event Risk to Rumor and Panic
The euro managed to advance against all of its most liquid majors Friday. Did the fundamental headlines improve through the final trading session? No. That said, they didn’t exactly build in bearish intensity either. After such an aggressive selloff, we have to assume that a significant amount of pain has been priced in for the shared currency. The question is whether it stands at enough of a discount to accurately represent the troubles that lie ahead. That is unlikely. Through Friday’s session, there was more rumor than actual headline news. Spain reportedly revised its final 2011 budget deficit numbers up to 8.9 percent (from 8.5) and LCH (the clearing house) raised its margin requirements to trade Spanish government bonds, but that is hardly headline-worthy news. Far more interesting were reports that German Chancellor Merkel was calling on Greek officials to put a referendum for the country to remain in the EU up for vote alongside the governmental election. This was later refuted by one of the Chancellor’s spokespeople, but Greek officials took it seriously enough to angrily reply. Another rumor early Saturday is that Greece would look to exit the Euro Zone come Monday. That is an unlikely scenario under a caretaker government. Keep watching the feeds next week.
British Pound Takes a Shot Across the Bow by Posen
You don’t need to be a fundamental expert to recognize that the sterling has lost a serious strut to its bullish foundation. The sterling dropped 2.8 percent against the yen and 1.6 percent against the dollar this past week. Why would the pound take up a risk sensitivity when not too long ago, it was seemed completely immune to such changes in tide? The shift is in subtle rate expectations. Not long ago, the dollar fought the current under a short-lived surge in rate expectations, and this was the pound’s turn. That turn, however, is over. The double dip recession brought doubt, but perma-dove Adam Posen confirmed expectations Friday by suggestion more QE may be needed. That said, he will exit in August.
Japanese Yen Traders Wonder: Will the BoJ Up Stimulus, Does it Matter?
USDJPY closed virtually at its low for the day Friday and subsequently set a fresh three month low. One of the most common questions that traders ask me happens to be: when is the right time to go long USDJPY. Those that ask are often looking for a hard level, but a line in the sand will not be deciding factor with this pair. Far more important here is the momentum. There is some fundamentally balance to this pair (both currencies are safe havens, low yielders, have tremendous debt loads) but when we look further into the future, we see that the dollar has an advantage of both absolute liquidity demand, structural economic projections and a return of yield. The balance now falls to the cross winds that are coming off of the more effectual carry pairs unwind. Against that backdrop, is there any weight being assigned to the BoJ meeting?
Swiss Franc: Will the SNB Simply Wait for a Eurozone Explosion to Act?
Don’t let the 7 pip average daily range on EURCHF fool you. There is tremendous pressure behind this pair. On one side, we have an unstoppable force – risk aversion specifically sourced from Europeans’ fears that their capital is in jeopardy. On the other, the immovable object – the SNB holding the line at 1.2000 with a pledge of unlimited intervention to maintain the floor. Yet, Friday’s close (1.2005) is the second lowest since the unusual policy effort was introduced, and it reminds us that something has to give. If the Swiss central bank is determined to sit on its hands, it could very well be their pledge that is broken as the Euro-region crisis intensifies. They no doubt realize this truth. And, if they realize it, they are likely weighing their options. The question is: what would it take to approve the nuclear option?
Australian Dollar Plunges Fresh 7 Month Lows as Speculative Interest Nearly Flips
Though the greenback’s losses were not doubt offering some counter-trend, bullish pressure on AUDUSD; the pair would not break stride. A 13th decline in the past 15 active trading days speaks to a very serious trend. General risk aversion (headed by the S&P 500) certainly supported momentum, but there was perhaps a level of gravity to Friday’s move that outpaced a simply risk aversion push on carry unwind. A morning Chinese business sentiment indicator was modestly disappointing, but the real hit for the carry currency was in its yield (both current and outlook). The benchmark 10-year Australian government bond yield was already on the decline, but Friday saw an unexpected plunge that brought the rate to a generational low 3.08 percent. In turn, the swaps market is now pricing in a certainty of a 25 basis point cut next next with a near 75 percent chance of a 50 basis point move, and the 12 month forecast has jumped from a quarter-point in a day (to 126 bps).
Gold Capitalizes on Dollar’s Weakness, Posts Biggest Two-Day Rally Since October
Now this is what a reversal from an oversold position looks like. When a market or individual asset overruns its fundamental boundaries leveraged by speculation rather than fundamentals, the subsequent correction is often just as dramatic. Gold put in for an impressive back-to-back rally Thursday and Friday (2.2 and 1.2 percent respectively) for the best two-day performance since October 26. However, we need to run this impressive move through the fundamental process. The previous metal’s decline has been heavily influenced by the strength of the US dollar. The greenback certainly lost its pace through the end of the week, but it didn’t correct with the same level of veracity as was seen in gold. The disconnect comes from the fact that in the place of the dollar’s influence, we were reminded of European (and global) risks concerns.
For Real Time Forex News, visit: http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go to www.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
New Zealand suffering net outmigration for most months since Feb 2011 earthquake
Rightmove House Prices (MoM) (May)
UK home prices remain sluggish, with homeowners squeezed by austerity policies and stagnant wages
Rightmove House Prices (YoY) (May)
Credit Card Spending SA (MoM) (Apr)
Generally resilient, but high unemployment and modest disaster recovery could weigh on NZ consumer spending
Credit Card Spending (YoY) (Apr)
All Industry Activity Index (MoM) (Mar)
Japanese economy exhibiting signs of stronger recovery in 1Q 2012
SECO Consumer Confidence (Apr)
Swiss consumer confidence beginning to recovery after falling sharply on economic slowdown
Convenience Store Sales YoY (Apr)
Liquidity ample as SNB maintains zero interest rate policy
Eurozone Construction Output SA MoM (Mar)
Construction has plummeted since start of 2012 in part due to cold weather, but recessions in key Eurozone economies also a factor
Eurozone Construction Output WDA YoY (Mar)
Italian Current Account (mlns euro) (Mar)
Lack of global competitiveness remains an important obstacle to Italy’s economic prospects
Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (Apr)
One of the indicators showing signs of weakness in US economy
SNB Publishes Monthly Bulletin
Fed’s Lockhart Speaks on Monetary Policy in Tokyo
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit our Pivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT