Objectives of crude oil higher as Gold retreats after Greek election

Discussion points
Crude oil, copper higher as Greek target Vote Stokes risk appetite or pensions as Greek eurozone exit threat disappears on the growth of the election of crude oil and copper prices are accelerating in a general improvement in risk appetite after a general election in Greece the weekend produced enough votes for the main pro-bailout Pasok and new democracy parties form a coalition Government. The result downgraded fears of imminent Greek exit from the euro area, stimulate appetite and risk weighing on refuge go - to currencies. Investors fear that a disorderly ejection from the country of the currency bloc may if Syriza – a party pushing back on the terms of bailout from the EU and the IMF – emerge victorious.Gold is low that the application of dents of result for the metal as a safe haven store. Money is little changed.
S & P 500 futures index point, suggesting mood on the risk will likely see at least in the immediate future. If the week Spanish bank bailout last be repeated however, which may be mere hours. The election effectively returns on the markets for the status quo in place six weeks before the end of the first attempt to installation of a new Government without result. Now as at the time, the evolution of the euro-zone debt crisis seems likely to act as a slow simmer, not a sudden rupture triggered by an event. The negative consequences of a collapse of the eurozone for global economic growth have not become less important, the recent recovery of casting in risky assets as corrective in the context of a larger downward yet dynamic in game.
An empty folder of European economic data suggests a sale auction of French binding as the solitary piece of risk of the event scheduled on the calendar. Paris sell 8.70 billion € in good 12 months to mature. Traders will look to submission to cover reading and performance mean to evaluate the euro area sovereign risk fears. While the tenor short debt on offer would generally be a poor response from price action, the proximity of the Greek election could amplify the impact of the results, traders can be regarded as a referendum on the ability of the vote in a significant relief. Comment sideline of the g-20 meeting if in the Mexico is also sought guidance.
Crude oil WTI (near NY): $84.03 / / + 0.12 / / + 0.14%
The prices are more border after putting in a model of candlestick line upward Piercing above 81.07, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion support. The bulls are now designed to challenge on June 7 in figure 87.00. 14.6% Fib to 83.30 has been redesigned as a short-term support.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1627.10 / / + 3.38 / / + 0.21%
Prices are stalling after having taken a set of trend fall line of early March. Resistance in the short term remains 1637.35, the tracing of 76.4%Fibonacci, with a break that exposing may 1 to 1671.49. 61.8% Fib to 1616.23 has been redesigned as a short-term support.
Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $28.69 / / + 0.05 / / + 0.17%
Prices continue to go back to graphic training of flag, a bearish continuation facility. Confirmation is required on a daily close below the model - now unit - which would expose 27.06 as the next objective of disadvantage. The first major resistance layer aligned to 29.71.
Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.384 / / + 0.030 / / + 0.89%
Prices have resistance 3.384, the tracing of Fibonacci 23.6%, with the bulls now to challenge the 38.2% Fib to 3.474. The 23.6%retracement has been redesigned as a short-term support.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Euro Retreats choice of the gaps in leadership positions open to buy

June 18, 2012 11: 16 GMT
Produce results electoral Greek stable reaction risk Pro rescue party wins election rest technical image guiding light during the meeting of the g-20 to inspire likely fresh volatility, official reports EU plan to counter the Spanish crisis gives pushed through the key barrier even if the eurozone is out the wood, the reaction of the initial election of Greek market was net positive to neutral as the worst scenarios of imminent Greek exit from the Euro prices are. There is still much speculation and expectation that a Grexit is unavoidable, the new who won part of the rescue pro plan, is certainly a little reassuring to global risk appetite.
Technically, the last major effort in the Euro falls directly under our projections, which were appointed to the additional force to the area from 1.2800 to 1.3000 before the summit before the deadline midterm will be required prior to resumption of the downward trend in the underlying. At that time, the election results help catalyze this technique to the dynamic and the emphasis will be CIMI today and tomorrow at the G-20, and reactions to the election of Greece and the impact bond spreads on Italian and Spanish. The euro has shot most of heights on Monday, but also attributed the price action for filling the open pit mine ....
Relative performance against the USD Monday (to the 11:10GMT)
NZD + 0.41 %
AUD + 0.33 %
EUR-0,09 %
CHF 0.12 %
CAD - 0.30 %
GBP - 0.43 %
JPY - 0.44 %
See also helps support a bit of risk were the UK Telegraph and New York times articles which report of an official EU plan on the horizon that will help it to address the many problems of the region. One of the main critical of eurozone crisis was a lack of leadership and staff is indeed capable of producing an official plan, it will be well received.
At this stage, it seems that the decline of the Euro that we saw in the previous weeks below 1.2300 perhaps on a waitlist for a scenario of the worst Greece in the peripheral countries of the euro area. Thus, the rally that followed continues to be the price of this risk of disadvantage. What this means, is that we do are in no way advocating a sustainable risk on the business environment, and that once the price is the worst in the Greek elections released, we could very well see some risks renewed commerce. Today, we believe that it is always better to remain marginalized, at least at the start of the day. We have already given some wild intraday swings, and Spanish yields breaking above 7%, it is really preferable to remain on the sidelines.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD: The market is in train to correct certain levels violently oversold after the breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly bearish, here we find yet place upside in the short term before a low high fee is requested. Locate the last positive weekly open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1.2800 - 1.3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Reverse must be well supported to 1.2400.

USD/JPY: The recent setbacks have been rather intense, with the market to collapse by the SMA 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we argue that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by calendering until more. However, at this stage, we will have to see a break and closing back above 80.00 to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic Outlook.
GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI seem inclined backwards to allow necessary short-term a corrective rebound after the setback down just shy of 2012 January low. Look for additional benefits to 1.5800 - 1.6000 from which an up, down, more significant is sought before bearish resumption.

USD/CHF: while we retain a more optimistic perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the coming weeks, short term risks are since more than a corrective retreat to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see the risks of weakness in the next sessions to 0.9200 - 0.9300 area before market seeks to reaffirm its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

$$Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t

Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t Euro Little Moved by Spanish Bank Downgrades, Greek Bond Sale New Zealand Dollar Traders Ready for the RBNZ Rate Decision Swiss Franc: Upgraded Growth Forecast, Negative Yields Set Stage for SNB Japanese Yen Looking More Exposed after IMF Calls More BoJ Action British Pound Rises Despite BoE’s Tucker Building the Call for Stimulus Gold Climbs Against Dollar as Liquidity Demand Relaxes Dollar Retreats on Cue as Volatility Settles Even if Risk Doesn’t
When the capital markets are tumbling and fear of financial seizures hits panicked levels, there is no better currency to jump to than the US dollar. Yet, under most other circumstances, the greenback either struggles to keep pace or is an outright liability. It may seem that with the pained backdrop for growth, yields and financial stability alongside the uncertainty heading into the Greek election that the dollar should find a natural buoyancy; but a pause in volatility is just as burdensome to the benchmark as a mild risk-positive sentiment. We can see this particular situation weighing on the greenback now. Though Monday’s risk-positive, anti-dollar drive didn’t stick; we are still trending in that direction. Technical traders will recognize the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index is carving out a conspicuous reversal pattern against 10,150.
Volatility can work both for and against a currency or asset in general, as long as the swell in activity supports the fundamental bearing of the asset (generally risk appetite or risk aversion). For the greenback, however, volatility itself is the critical component. The dollar isn’t a traditional safe haven. Its true value comes through the combination of its liquidity and transparency. These are properties best exemplified when there is an active deleveraging of any and all risk-sensitive assets alongside a wholesale need for liquidity. Up until last week, that was a major boon for the dollar. The equities-based VIX Index hit a six-month high 27.5 percent and the FX equivalent set a high for the year of 12.3 percent.
In contrast, we have seen both ‘fear’ measures back off significantly this week. Given the high-level risk that the Eurozone crisis could spread next week with the Greek vote and/or another round of short-term stimulus from the Fed draw in waves of speculators; there is a distinct sense that it is better to wait until a clear path is chosen by the markets. This hesitation has a notable effect on volatility and subsequently the dollar. Add to any leveling off in risk trends a boost to QE3 expectations, and the dollar will find itself particularly exposed just off of 18-month highs.
Euro Little Moved by Spanish Bank Downgrades, Greek Bond Sale
The fundamental headlines from the Euro stream were discouraging, but not pressing enough to shake traders’ focus from the main event this coming weekend. Fear that the Euro-area crisis can spread or intensify is particularly strong, but the Greek electionis seen as a game changer (especially if it doesn’t turn out favorably for the Monetary Union). Of concern this past trading session, the most remarkable scheduled event was the Greek bond auction. The government has grown reliant on shorter-term funding to supplement the shortfall in its two rescue programs. That said, regional banks are steady buyers of this paper, preventing the reflection of the market’s feelings on the economy’s health. That said, the 4.73 percent yield drawn on the €1.625 billion sale is still excessive. In other news, Fitch announced downgraded 18 Spanish banks. This doesn’t surprise in the wake of the sovereign cut though. Similarly, German Chancellor Merkel and ECB member Asmussen’s suggestion that Eurobond were not the answer to the current crisis should be imprinted on every euro traders’ brain at this point.
New Zealand Dollar Traders Ready for the RBNZ Rate Decision
The kiwi has advanced against every one of its counterparts this past week as risk trends tentatively bounce and its particular yield backdrop drives draws a dramatic contrast against its major contemporaries. Against all but the Australian currency, the kiwi dollar provides a decent carry (more so at government bond rates than benchmark and deposit alternatives). And, against the Aussie, a 12-month forecast for 15 bps worth of cuts from the RBNZ offers a sizable advantage to the RBA’s projected 100 bps of further easing. In fact, easing expectations may be somewhat excessive. According to overnight swaps there is a 13 percent probability of 25bp cut at the upcoming rate decision due at 21:00 GMT, but fundamentals and recent commentary Governor Bollard suggests that is highly unlikely. The question therefore is whether there is enough latent, bearish positioning on the chance of a rate cut that a correction follows a hold. More interesting will be Bollard’s testimony before Parliament.
Swiss Franc: Upgraded Growth Forecast, Negative Yields Set Stage for SNB
We have set the scene for the Swiss National Bank’s second quarter rate decision for some time now. The higher-level concerns of the steadfast deterioration in the European financial situation has provided a constant pressure for policy officials to switch from its defensive stance to a more proactive effort (raise the floor on EURCHF, introduce capital curbs, etc). Yet, this is a well-worn speculative scenario and one that has essentially lost its mystique. Meanwhile, recent developments perhaps project a diminished need for / return in further SNB effort. The SECO 2012 GDP forecast was upgraded from 0.8 to 1.4 percent. Further, a threat of negative rates means little as 2-5 year yields are already negative.
Japanese Yen Looking More Exposed after IMF Calls More BoJ Action
The Bank of Japan won’t likely find greater support to pull out all the stops on its effort to force the Japanese yen lower. We have already seen the government demand more asset purchases in an effort to drive the currency lower – and Prime Minister Noda’s cabinet has even nominated two stimulus-favoring candidates to fill empty central bank posts. Now, the IMF is even supporting the call – calling the yen overbought. This is effectively tacit approval from the organization’s members to go ahead with manipulation. Will they take advantage Friday? Would it be effective?
British Pound Rises Despite BoE’s Tucker Building the Call for Stimulus
The sterling made notable progress against all but its highest-yielding major counterparts. That is an interesting fundamental reflection of the currency’s health. And yet, the outlook for monetary policy (the return component in the risk/reward balance) took a notable slip this past session. The MPC’s Tucker said Tuesday that the BoE must do more to ease the strain on the UK and its markets. Point for stimulus.
Gold Climbs Against Dollar as Liquidity Demand Relaxes
Gold posted its biggest advance this past session since the massive June 1 rally. Despite the progress behind the move, this doesn’t seem to be a push that has staying power for a trend. The stimulus effects of the Spanish rescue should be as priced in as possible and QE3 expectations won’t make much progress to next Wednesday. More prominent now is the dollar’s own slide as the slip in volatility curbs its liquidity appeal.
For Real Time Forex News, visit:http://www.dailyfx.com/real_time_news/
**For a full list of upcoming event risk and past releases, go towww.dailyfx.com/calendar
ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Negative for the first time since April 2011, expresses expectations slowing economy.
Westpac Consumer Confidence (JUN)
Westpac Consumer Confidence Index (JUN)
French Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
CPI (YoY) declining since Jan 1st, Reduces pressure on the ECB to maintain inflation
French Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY)
German Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAY F)
Germany’s price pressure is the backbone the ECB’s inflation fight.
German Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAY F)
French Current Account (euros) (APR)
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (MAY)
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (MAY)
Italian Consumer Price Index (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (MAY F)
YoY figure declined to January levels. Italy leading inflation among top EuroZone.
Italian Consumer Price Index - EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAY F)
Euro-Zone Industrial Production w.d.a. (YoY) (APR)
4th month in negative territory, adds economic slowdown pressure.
Euro-Zone Industrial Production s.a. (MoM) (APR)
MBA Mortgage Applications (JUN 8)
Producer Price Index (MoM) (MAY)
PPI down 5% from September highs.
Reduces pressure on Fed to maintain inflation.
Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAY)
Producer Price Index (YoY) (MAY)
Producer Price Index Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAY)
Indicator of the health of the economy, weak prints would further justify need for stimulus.
Advance Retail Sales Less Autos (MAY)
Advance Retail Sales Less Auto & Gas (MAY)
Advance Retail Sales "Control Group" (MAY)
Former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan Speaks on U.S. Economy
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visitTechnical Analysis Portal
To see updated PIVOT POINT LEVELS for the Majors and Crosses, visit ourPivot Point Table
CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT
v

_-_ Cable retreats after report of the slowdown in manufacturing growth signals United Kingdom

May 1, 2012 09: 11 GMT  the takeaway: UK PMI manufacturing comes to 50.5, below expected 51.5-> slows the growth of production can be contributed to the sharp decline in new export-> cable return from six months of high dropsIndex of the United Kingdom purchase managers for the manufacture of April reached 50.5, below expectations of analysts of 51.5, export of new orders were at their steepest rate since May 2009. Although the PMI is always greater than 50 and therefore considered positive, the index is low the month 51.9 last revised level.
New export orders fell because of weaker demand from continental Europe, the United States and Asia. Higher prices contributed to the decline of manufacturing in the second half of 2011, which means that the industrial recovery could be slow for some time.
PMI is a gauge that weighs the activity of production and prospects for the future. The Institute approved for purchasing and supply and Markit Economics communicates the monthly index, which is based on a survey of executives in the private sector.
It is the fifth straight month the PMI manufacturing came in above 50, signalling expansion. However, the slowdown in manufacturing growth comes a few days after a technical recession was launched in the United Kingdom when GDP was lowest reported for 2 quarters in a row.

Cable fell sharply after weak manufacturing data, falling back below the 1.6200. Yesterday, the couple made a new six-month high just below 1.6300, but retracted earlier today. EUR/GBP has continued its rise higher after the PMI publication, also stimulated by the Euro already climbing.

DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and FXCM maps.

May 1, 2012 09: 11 GMT