$ Dollar Aims Higher on Greece Jitters, Eurogroup Meeting on Tap Ahead

Talking Points
US Dollar Aims Higher as S&P 500 Stock Index Futures Point to Risk Aversion Greek Government Impasse Overshadows China’s Weekend Interest Rate Cut Eurozone Finance Ministers’ Meeting, Italian and Spanish Debt Sales Key Ahead The US Dollar pushed higher to start the trading week as stocks fell in overnight trade, driving demand for the go-to haven currency. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index fell 0.6 percent as Greek lawmakers failed to come up with an agreement on a ruling coalition at meeting over the weekend. Traders are concerned that a lingering impasse will push Athens to fall short of its obligations under the terms of the EU/IMF bailout, paving the way for Greece’s ejection from the Eurozone and possibly even the overall EU.
This would be an unprecedented development with effectively unpredictable practical implications for financial markets, fueling a broadly defensive tone and overshadowing risk-supportive news of a Chinese rate cut. Beijing announced over the weekend that reserve requirement ratios (RRRs) will be cut 50bps to 20 percent effective May 18. The move could have been expected to boost risk appetite and drive stocks-linked currencies higher on hopes of better-supported growth in the world’s second-largest economy were it not for Greek-related headwinds.
Looking ahead, S&P 500stock index futures are pointing sharply lower, hinting risk aversion is likely to continue driving the greenback higher against most of its leading counterparts. The spotlight is on a meeting of Eurozone Finance Ministers in Brussels, with traders on the lookout for any clues about a possible way forward beyond the Greek stalemate. Italy and Spain are also due to issue debt, with markets keeping a close eye on average yield and bid-to-cover readings to gauge the extent to which Athens-born jitters are spilling over elsewhere.
Asia Session: What Happened
Performance Services Index (APR)
Retail Sales Ex Inflation (QoQ) (1Q)
Owner-Occup. Value of Loans (MoM) (MAR)
Euro Session: What to Expect
German Wholesale Price Index (MoM) (APR)
German Wholesale Price Index (YoY) (APR)
France Current Account (€) (MAR)
Producer & Import Prices (MoM) (APR)
Producer & Import Prices (YoY) (APR)
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (MoM) (APR F)
Italian CPI (NIC incl. tobacco) (YoY) (APR F)
Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (MoM) (APR F)
Italian CPI – EU Harmonized (YoY) (APR F)
Spain to Sell 364-518 Day Bills
Italian General Government Debt (€) (MAR)
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)
Euro-Zone Industrial Production (MoM) (MAR)
Euro Zone Finance Ministers Meet in Brussels
Critical Levels

!! Commodities Look to US GDP Data to Offset Euro Debt Crisis Jitters

Crude Oil, Copper to Follow Stocks Lower as Eurozone Debt Fears Return Gold and Silver Look to US GDP Report to Keep QE3 Expectations Alive Commodity prices are down in early European trade as risk aversion grips financial markets following a Standard & Poor's downgrade of Spain's credit rating. Sense-linked crude oil and silver prices are following shares lower while gold and silver are facing de-facto selling pressure as the dour mood stokes safe-haven demand for the US Dollar. & S P 500 stock index future are pointing sharply lower, hinting more of the same is on tap as Wall Street comes online.
On the economic data front, all eyes are on the first - quarter US Gross Domestic Product figures, where expectations point to a 2.5 percent annualized quarterly increase after a 3 percent rise in the three months through December.The result is likely to be interpreted in the context of this week's FOMC policy meeting, with a better-than-expected outcome carrying the possibility of reminding traders that Ben Bernanke's commentary was hardly as supportive of QE3 as the markets' initial reaction suggested. Alternatively, a disappointing print will further fuel stimulus bets, which certainly seems supportive for precious metals purpose may also (somewhat counter intuitively) help on the risk appetite front as well.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $104.55 / / + 0.43 / / + 0.41%
Prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 104.90, a former level support reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from early March. The setup warns of bullish exhaustion and hints a turn lower maybe ahead. Initial rising trend line support is now at 101.98.

Spot Gold (NY Close): $1657.43 / / + 13.80 / / + 0.84%
The top of prices was falling channel set from early March now at 1660.60, with a break higher exposing 1680.35. Support lines up at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Absent a daily close above the channel top, the overall trend remains bearish.

Spot Silver (closed NY): $30.09 / / + 0.38 / / + 1.25%
Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above support at 30.23(1) and rebounded to retest a previously broken barrier at 31.11. A push above this statements falling trend line resistance at 31.70. Alternatively, a reversal through immediate support targets the 30.00 lower figure.

COMEX E-Mini Copper (Close NY): $3.774 / / + 0.066 / / + 1.78%
Prices broke back above 3.713, a former level support recast as resistance, with bulls now aiming to retest the underside of a formerly broken Triangle formation (now at 3.816). The 3.713 level is support once again.