$$Commodity may fall as we spark risk aversion retail sales

June 13, 2012 09: 00 GMT Talking Points
Copper at risk as US retail sales data threatens to sink a sense of gold and silver can fall US Dollar is renewed support Haven flows of crude oil prices, are walk water in European trade, as markets digest the recent volatility, but the possibility of return risk aversion appears more and more likely. Traders are likely to turn defensive as the instability of the eurozone jitters return before Greek elections at the end of week, where membership in the block of the currency of the country appears to hang in the balance.
Retail sales report we today may serve as a trigger. Expectationscall decrease of 0.2 per cent of the forums, marking the first contraction in a year. Unknown criticism in the prospects of economic growth world is the degree to which a recovery in North America still troubled may offset the winds of weakness in Europe and Asia. Taken on a background of fading there Paris after stimulation disappointed of the week last Ben Bernanke testimony hope, this means that a fresh impression rises to feelings.
Future of S & P 500 stock index are sinking deeper into negative territory before the Wall Street opening bell, strengthens the case for a risk-free session. This situation send the crude oil and copper lower of the following while the gold and silver come under pressure in the middle of recovering demand for shelter for the US Dollar.
WTI crude oil (near NY): $83.32(1) / / + 0.62 / / + 0.75%
Price builds 83.30 expansion of 14.6% of Fibonacci, challenge the barrier of 23.6% to 81.07. A break below this limit is 80.00 figure and 38.2% Fib to 77.33. 14.6% Expansion has been redesigned as a resistance in the short term, with a rear thrust above which targets June 7 in figure 87.00.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1609.80 / / + 13.03 / / + 0.82%
Bat prices back above the figure of 1600/oz to challenge resistance to the 1616.23 at the intersection of the tracing of 61.8% Fibonacci and a trend line drops from early March. A break above this limit exposes the 76.4% Fib to 1637.35. The level of 1600 has been redesigned as a support in the short term, with additional strengthening from with the permission of the tracing of 50% to 1599.17.

t at 1599.17.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $28.97 / / + 0.41 / / + 1.42%
Price breaks above the resistance of 28.70, exhibitor 29.71 as the next to the barrier. In this spirit, the general structure appears to be showing a graphic training of flag, an downward continuation. Confirmation is required on a daily close below the model - now in 62.54 - which would expose 27,06 as the next objective of disadvantage.

ective.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.336 / /-0.008 / /-0.24%
Prices appear to be due to resistance to the top of a channel which falls on 1 may, high, exhibitor 3.384 23.6% Fibonacci allows the swing. A break above this limit is the 38.2% Fib 3.474. The top of the channel, now at 3.319, was reworked as a short-term support.

as near-term support.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Commodities Sold on Eurozone Data purpose QE3 Bets May Spark Bounce

Talking Points
Crude Oil, Copper Hurt by Eurozone Data But May Bounce with ISM Result Gold and Silver May Rise if Another Soft US Data Point Boosts QE3 Outlook Commodity prices are under pressure in European trade as broadly soft economic data out of the Eurozone reminded investors that aside from sovereign risk and structural concerns (at least as it relates to Greece), the region is also sinking deeper into an economic slump that is weighing on global performance at large. Revised Eurozone PMI figures pointed to likely recession in the second quarter while German factory orders and region-wide retail sales figures disappointed expectations. Looking ahead, S&P 500 stock index futures have erased earlier gains and now point firmly lower, hinting continued selling may be ahead.
The landscape may quickly change with the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge however. Median forecasts call for a print at 53.5 in May, matching April’s result. An outcome in line with expectations is unlikely to spark fireworks but a disappointing result may counter-intuitively boost risk appetite while applying downward pressure on the Dollar in the context of the QE3-driven theme at play this week. That would have scope to boost sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices while offering a lift to gold and silver as precious metals are once again sought out for their store-of-value appeal.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $83.98 // +0.75 // +0.90%
Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, hinting an upswing is ahead. Highly oversold RSI studies reinforce the risk of a rebound. Initial resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a break lower initially exposes 80.16.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (NY Close): $1618.85 // -5.25 // -0.32%
Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1628.65. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.25 // -0.27 // -0.93%
Prices are drifting sideways above support at 27.06, with gains still capped at 28.70. A break lower initially exposes the 26.05-15 area. Alternatively, a push higher through resistance opens the door for a challenge of 29.71.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.308 // -0.006 // -0.18%
Prices broke through support at 3.426, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with sellers now testing the double bottom at 3.250. A break below this boundary exposes the 123.6% Fib expansion at 3.080. The 3.426 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
To be added to Ilya's e-mail distribution list, send a note with subject line "Distribution List" to ispivak@dailyfx.com

View the original article here