**S & P 500 the graphical Setup program refers to Bounce as Dollar American Pullback looms

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

The Takeaway: A technical positioning S & P 500 is evoking corrective recovery before then that the graphical setup of US Dollar continues to notify a withdrawal in the coming days.
S & P 500 - prices are testing 1273.40 support, 50% Fibonacci expansion. A break below this level exposes the 61.8% Fib to 1258.70. Short term resistance aligns in the 1288 00-1292 areamarked. 90 by October 27, high and the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion. Divergence of positive RSI warned against a possible recovery before.
Crude oil - put price in a candlestick hammer over 83.34, the tracing of 76.4% Fibonacci support, referring only to a stimulus is coming. Studies RSI overbooked strongly reinforce the risk of a rebound. Initial resistance aligns in the region of our 90 14-88, 54, marked by the top of swing in early September and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a less break initially exposes 80.16.
Gold - prices are now testing resistance to a set of line trend fall of early March, to 1628.65. The barrier is reinforced by the tracing of Fibonacci 76.4% to 1637.35, with a break more expose may 1 to 1671.49. Short-term support aligns to 1616.23, 61.8% Fib, with a break below the opening of the door for a test of the figure of 1600/oz.

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Us DOLLAR - unchanged since yesterday: "prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick under resistance 10316, the expansion of the 76.4%Fibonacci, coupled with negative divergence in RSI.". Advice for installing a withdrawal may be coming. Initial support aligns to 10220, the level of 61.8%, with a break in the Exhibitor area 10134-43. »

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Commodities Sold on Eurozone Data purpose QE3 Bets May Spark Bounce

Talking Points
Crude Oil, Copper Hurt by Eurozone Data But May Bounce with ISM Result Gold and Silver May Rise if Another Soft US Data Point Boosts QE3 Outlook Commodity prices are under pressure in European trade as broadly soft economic data out of the Eurozone reminded investors that aside from sovereign risk and structural concerns (at least as it relates to Greece), the region is also sinking deeper into an economic slump that is weighing on global performance at large. Revised Eurozone PMI figures pointed to likely recession in the second quarter while German factory orders and region-wide retail sales figures disappointed expectations. Looking ahead, S&P 500 stock index futures have erased earlier gains and now point firmly lower, hinting continued selling may be ahead.
The landscape may quickly change with the release of the ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite gauge however. Median forecasts call for a print at 53.5 in May, matching April’s result. An outcome in line with expectations is unlikely to spark fireworks but a disappointing result may counter-intuitively boost risk appetite while applying downward pressure on the Dollar in the context of the QE3-driven theme at play this week. That would have scope to boost sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices while offering a lift to gold and silver as precious metals are once again sought out for their store-of-value appeal.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $83.98 // +0.75 // +0.90%
Prices put in a Hammer candlestick above support at 83.34, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, hinting an upswing is ahead. Highly oversold RSI studies reinforce the risk of a rebound. Initial resistance lines up in the 90.14-88.54 area, marked by the early September swing top and the 61.8% Fib. Alternatively, a break lower initially exposes 80.16.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (NY Close): $1618.85 // -5.25 // -0.32%
Prices are testing resistance at a falling trend line set from early March, now at 1628.65. The barrier is reinforced by the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement at 1637.35, with a break higher exposing the May 1 high at 1671.49. Near-term support lines up at 1616.23, the 61.8% Fib, with a break below that opening the door for a test of the 1600/oz figure.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Silver (NY Close): $28.25 // -0.27 // -0.93%
Prices are drifting sideways above support at 27.06, with gains still capped at 28.70. A break lower initially exposes the 26.05-15 area. Alternatively, a push higher through resistance opens the door for a challenge of 29.71.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.308 // -0.006 // -0.18%
Prices broke through support at 3.426, the 76.4% Fibonacci retracement, with sellers now testing the double bottom at 3.250. A break below this boundary exposes the 123.6% Fib expansion at 3.080. The 3.426 level has been recast as near-term resistance.

Daily Chart - Created Using FXCM Marketscope 2.0
--- Written by Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist for Dailyfx.com
To contact Ilya, e-mail ispivak@dailyfx.com. Follow Ilya on Twitter at @IlyaSpivak
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FOREX NEWS - Euro, Aussie bounce but dollar to win out

* Euro hits three-week high of $1.3294, Aussie recovers lostground * Moves seen in thin trade, dollar should remain firm onU.S. outlook * Euro zone, China slowdown concerns hamper risk sentiment By Neal Armstrong LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - The euro and the Australiandollar bounced back against the U.S. dollar on Friday asconcerns over a slowdown in China and the euro zone easedslightly, but dealers said the greenback would be supported bythe improving outlook in the United States. Worries about faltering global growth in the euro zone andChina, which had hit stocks and riskier currencies a dayearlier, eased off slightly tempering demand for safer bets suchas the dollar and the yen. The dollar slipped to a three-week low versus the euro and the Swiss franc, also plumbing a two-weektrough against a basket of currencies but traders saidthe sell-off was in thin liquidity and expected the greenback tohold firm. "We've definitely seeing a rotation of growth expectationswith the U.S. outlook marginally better and China's outlookmarginally downgraded. This should be positive for the dollar,"said Geoff Kendrick, currency strategist at Nomura. "But it's been thin this week and the market still seems tobe undecided which may explain the volatile moves. I think weneed to see U.S. 10-year yields break above 2.4 percent forfurther dollar gains." U.S. 10-year notes yielded around 2.26 percenton Friday after stalling shy of 2.40 percent on Tuesday. Signsof improvement in U.S. economic conditions have boosted yieldsand the dollar in recent weeks. The dollar-index was down around 0.4 percent for the dayafter slipping to 79.214. It hit a two-month high of 80.738earlier this month. The euro climbed from Thursday's low of $1.3133, rising toa three-week high of $1.3293 before dipping back to$1.3253, up 0.4 percent for the day. Many market players remain short of euros on worries over aneconomic slowdown and high levels of sovereign debt in many eurozone countries, notably Spain, but for now the common currencywas gaining respite. "A week short on data and events is likely to end as itbegan - with illiquid trade and the resulting intraday jumps inEUR-USD. As a result any jerks up or down might easily knockmarket participants out of their positions in the range between1.3000 and 1.3335," said Commerzbank in a note. YEN SLIPS The euro rose 0.6 percent to 109.55 yen, in themiddle of the week's 108.49/111.57 range. Yen weakness was reinforced on selling by Japan importers,whose purchases of fossil fuels have surged as most nuclearreactors in the country were taken offline after the Fukushimadisaster last year. The yen is likely to benefit from repatriation flows aheadof the Japanese fiscal year-end on March 31, but any gains couldprove fleeting given how determined the Bank of Japan is to keepmonetary policy ultra-loose. "While we could see some short-term bounce going into thefiscal year-end, the broad trend for the yen is lower," saidSimon Derrick, head of currency research, at Bank of New YorkMellon. "Given how successful the Bank of Japan has been in pushingthe yen lower, they will look to pump additional funds and thatwill keep the yen weaker." The greenback has gained 7.5 percent against the yen sincethe start of this year, while the euro has jumped more than 10percent, with gains picking after the Bank of Japan surprisinglyeased policy by announcing more quantitative easing in February. The Australian dollar recouped some of this week's heavylosses against the yen to trade up around 0.1 percent on the dayat 86.00 yen, but investors are likely to be cautiousabout perceived riskier currencies amid growing signs of aglobal slowdown. The Aussie moved further away from a two-month low of$1.0336 hit on Thursday to trade as high as $1.0450.Traders said stop-loss buy orders had been triggered at$1.0420/30, while Asian sovereign supply was noted around thehighs as it later eased back below $1.0400.© Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. 

Euro Gets another Bounce even as Equities Slide

Slightly removed from the spotlight given the overwhelming focus on Greece, it’s easy to forget that there are other E.U. members which are also fiscally impaired. Earlier today, The Spanish National Statistics Institute reported that according to preliminary estimates, the Spanish economy contracted by 0.3% in the last quarter of 2011, in line with last week’s forecasts from the Bank of Spain. Analysts say the figures clearly suggest that the Eurozone’s 4th largest economy is headed for another recession, despite being the last of its Eurozone peers to emerge from the most recent recession.
In spite of the Spanish news, the Euro continues to find some support and is trading higher at 1.3125; one trader who profited nicely from the Euro’s intra-day volatility is trader foddam03 who earlier closed a short position which gave this trader a gain of 88%.
However, Euro support notwithstanding, worries of Greece are putting pressure on the European bourses which are trading lower. As of this writing, the German DAX is down by 33 points and the CAC-40 is lower by 32 points; on the OpenBook, investor sentiment remains skewed toward short positions, more so for the CAC-40 than for the DAX, however. Trader petra09 closed out a long position in the DAX earlier for a 14.59% gain, and holds one other already profitable long position with a TP set at 6,602.2700. This trader has only a relatively short track record on OpenBook, but for the last three months is near to recording a 50% gain.
Trader ROLaterveer, who primarily employs a high risk strategy, allocates 40.5% of his portfolio to the German DAX and recently closed out one short position for a small gain of 4.5% and holds two other shorts. Trader Renlie24 also allocates a large proportion (36%) of the trader’s portfolio to the DAX and opened one short position today to hedge an open long. Trader arasu88, who looks to have just opened this OpenBook account earlier in January, is already showing some trading prowess on the DAX; in the 20 positions opened this month, every one has returned a profit with gains ranging between 1% and 22%.
Spain’s government had said that they would not meet the IMF’s 2011 deficit targets and would step up their efforts to meet the targets this year. Analysts believe that more austerity will shrink the economy further perhaps as much as 1.7% this year, and push the E.U.-high unemployment rate to 23.4%. That news, though generally unsurprising, will still worry the E.U. leadership as they attempt to hammer out the details of the Eurozone’s emergency funding mechanism, the EFSF. The EFSF is already earmarked to help Greece and possibly Portugal and Italy. Last Friday, Fitch’s credit ratings agency downgraded Spain’s sovereign debt from AA- to A.