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Showing posts with label returns. Show all posts
Showing posts with label returns. Show all posts

Sunday, July 8, 2012

AUD/USDGraphic review: Aussie returns some of the EU gains

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Adrian Robles, 7 July 2012 00: 35 GMT AUDUSDGraphic_Rewind_Aussie_Gives_Back_Some_of_EU_Gains_body_Picture_5.png, AUD/USDGraphic Rewind: Aussie Gives Back Some of EU Gains prepared from Adrian Robles, EST 2 hr MarketScope chart

This week rode the AUDUSD on the market-wide optimism triggered by the Summit and by the prospect of a co-ordinated stimulus effort managed by the European Central Bank. The ECB crushed this hope on Thursday at the press conference, which ended the rally in the AUDUSD.

The AUDUSD began a reading over 50 led an expansion in manufacturing the week on a short bit, after China Manufacturing PMI surpass expectations to coverage. A survey by Bloomberg called for a contraction in the Chinese manufacturing which would have implied Australian raw materials less demand. The few Poppedon Tuesday, when may extended the building approvals by 27.3 per cent from April, brings growth in building approvals in the last 12 months by 9.3 percent. The extension in the Mai building permits was the fact that investors optimistic were bp rate in the Australian economy ahead of the 25, which highlights cut in June. The couple over the closure of two hours ended in further, but lower, after the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep cash rate (OCR) to 3.5 per cent. The couple moved a few points after the announcement, because market participants, where the accommodation already in the RBA would keep prices, cash prices.

On Thursday, the the AUDUSD almost fell 100 points after the European Central Bank the OCR on an all time cut by 0.75% lower, but offered no stimulus efforts. After the press conference flocked back to the safe haven currency is, rejects the USD to carry in the AUDUSD. The downward trend continued Friday after the June she published United States the employment data AUSUSD fall 100 points to settle at 1.0190 (at the time of writing). The FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) rallied after found that unemployment does not increase. The jump in the U.S. dollar the result of danger can be negative investors, a sideline position independent of employment data have been.

At the end of this week has again about 30 percent of the profits that were made during the two days of the EU Summit of AUDUSD and the Aussie can give more of the EU Summit WINS $, is another retreat in risk appetite.

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7 July 2012 00: 35 GMT


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Tuesday, March 13, 2012

Asian Market Update: Risk returns to the markets and fears ease over China slowdown


(JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0% TO 0.10%, AS EXPECTED; NO NEW MONETARY EASING ANNOUNCED >- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN HOME LOANS M/M: -1.2% V -0.6%E (first decline in 10 months); INVESTMENT LENDING: -7.1% V 7.5% PRIOR; OWNER-OCCUPIED HOME LOAN VALUE: 0.1% V 2.0% PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA FEB NAB BUSINESS CONDITIONS: 3 V 2 PRIOR; NAB BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 1 V 4 PRIOR (5-month low)
- (UK) UK FEB RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE: -13% V -14%E (19-month high)
- (JP) JAPAN JAN TERTIARY INDUSTRY INDEX M/M: -1.7% V +0.2%E (10-month low)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB QV HOUSE PRICES Y/Y: 2.9% V 2.7% PRIOR (17-month high) >- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB FOOD PRICES M/M: 0.6% V 0.0% PRIOR (7-month high)
- (PH) PHILIPPINES JAN TOTAL EXPORTS Y/Y: 3.0% V -18.5%E; TOTAL MONTHLY EXPORTS: $4.1B V $3.3B PRIOR
- (PH) Philippines Dec Foreign Direct Investment (FDI); $43M v $366M prior
- (AR) Argentina Feb Trade Balance: $1.3B v $550M prior
- (NZ) New Zealand Feb REINZ house Price Index m/m: +0.8% v -1.4% prior (3-month high); House Sales y/y: 37.0% v 25.2% prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.9%
- S&P/ASX +1.1%
- Kospi +1.3%
- Taiwan Taiex +1.4%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.8%
- Shanghai Composite +0.3%
- Hang Seng +1.3%
- S&P Futures +0.5% at 1,379
- April gold +0.3% at $1,704/oz
- April Crude +0.6% at $106.99
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets saw a return of risk appetite today, ahead of US Fed policy meeting and key ZEW data from Germany. One of the major investment banks raised its 2012 GDP estimate on China, despite China itself lower its own estimate last week. Commodities were all stronger with silver and copper contracts both up over 0.8% to $33.69 and $3.86 respectively. In a Greece debt analysis report it saw debt-GDP ratio falling well below 120% by 2020 target if debt swap participation rose above 96%. EU's Juncker said he does not expect Greece to require a third bailout; A successful debt exchange will cut Greece debt to 117% of GDP in 2020. He also noted that the budget plan for Belgium could be evaluated in the coming days. It was also announced that Spain has agreed to an additional deficit cut of 0.5% of GDP beyond what has been announced. Reminder on March 2nd following the EU Leader Summit Spain PM Rajoy announced that Spain revised its 2012 deficit-to-GDP ratio higher to 5.8% from 4.4% prior target but did maintain 2013 deficit-to-GDP target of 3.0%. Rajoy stated at the time of the declaration: "This was a sovereign decision made by Spain.." EUR/USD held some mild strength in the session gaining about 0.1% which was similar for the pound and Swiss franc.
- The Bank of Japan leaves the target rate unchanged between 0.0 to 0.1%, as expected. However the BoJ did increase the size of loan scheme targeting growth sectors by ¥2T to ¥5.5T. Announces dollar denominated growth loans worth ¥1T and also said they would introduce loans worth ¥500B for small lot investments. Board member Miyao proposed increasing asset buying and loan scheme by ¥5T, proposal was rejected 8 to 1. As expected the volume of asset purchases unchanged at ¥65T. USD/JPY fell over 0.3% to around the ¥81 level. EUR/JPY also fell 0.3% to ¥107.95. In New Zealand economic data showed that both housing and food prices are rising, the NZD/USD gained half a percent $0.8221.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (KR) Korea govt may issue credit cards offering oil tax rebates if global oil prices rise above $130/brl - Korean press
- (CN) S&P: China banks should be able to overcome any slump, performance will moderate in 2012 but stay healthy
- (KR) South Korea Fin Min Bahk: Reiterates rising oil prices and a possible slowdown in China are risks to South Korea
- (JP) Japan cabinet expected to approve consumption tax increase plans on Mar 23rd before submitting to Diet - Japan press
- (US) Fed criteria for latest round of stress tests to include unemployment rate as high as 13%, equity price decline of 50%, and housing price decline of 21%; Results will be released on Thur, Mar 15th at 16:30ET - financial press
***Equities***
- China Overseas Land, 688.HK: Reports Feb property sales HK$13.1B, +209% y/y
- Mongolian Mining Corp, 975.HK: China coking coal demand will increase 2-3% in 2012
- CHT: Reports Feb net NT$2.9B v NT$3.3B m/m; Rev NT$15.5B v $16.8B y/y
- MF: Customers reportedly have received offers for claims and will receive nearly all of the missing $1.6B in funds back - NYT Dealbook
- NEC, 6701.JP: Aims to raise its infrastructure business sales by 50% to ¥500B in the next 4-5 years - Nikkei News
- Cathay Financial, 2882.TW: In talks with larger Chinese banks of a cross stake agreement - Taiwan press
- HBC: Will focus on six core and 2 strategic markets in Asia outside of Hong Kong and sell or close retail operations in another 7 countries - FT
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (TW) Taiwan sells 20-Year Bonds; Yield 1.708% v 1.733% prior
- (CN) PBoC offers CNY66B 28-day repos at 2.8% v 2.8% prior; does not sell bills
- (CN) China may raise fuel prices this week - Chinese press

Wednesday, February 29, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Risk appetite returns to the region with

IN) INDIA QUARTERLY GDP Y/Y: 6.1% V 6.3%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA Q4 CONSTRUCTION WORK DONE Q/Q: -4.6% V -0.8%E (12-year low)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.2% V 0.3%E (3-month low); Y/Y: 3.5% V 3.6%E
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN RETAIL SALES M/M: 0.3% V 0.3%E (4-month high)
- (JP) JAPAN JAN PRELIMINARY INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: 2.0% V 1.5%E; Y/Y: -1.2% V -1.6%E
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 8.3% V 3.4%E (3-month high)
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND FEB NBNZ ACTIVITY CONFIDENCE: 28.0 V 16.9 PRIOR (4-month high); OUTLOOK: 31.2 V 25.7 PRIOR
- (AU) AUSTRALIA JAN HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -7.3% V -4.9% PRIOR (6-month low)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: +3.3% V -0.5%E; Y/Y: -2.0% V -4.6%E (first y/y decline in 30 months); INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION MANUFACTURING Y/Y: -1.9% V 2.9% PRIOR
- (SG) SINGAPORE JAN MONEY SUPPLY M1 Y/Y: 13.1% V 14.8% PRIOR; M2 Y/Y: 9.9% V 10.0% PRIOR
- (UK) UK FEB GFK CONSUMER CONFIDENCE SURVEY: -29 V -27E (matches 8-month high)
- (JP) JAPAN FEB MARKIT/JMMA MANUFACTURING PMI: 50.5 V 50.7 PRIOR (first decline in 3 months)
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN LEADING INDEX Y/Y: 0.7% V 0.4% PRIOR
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN SERVICE INDUSTRY OUTPUT Y/Y: 0.9% V 1.6% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN JAN HOUSING STARTS Y/Y: -1.1% V -3.3%E (5th consecutive decline); CONSTRUCTION ORDERS Y/Y: 24.6% V 1.5% PRIOR (4th consecutive increase); ANNUALIZED HOUSING STARTS: 822K V 808KE
- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN MONEY SUPPLY M3 Y/Y: 5.4% V 5.9% PRIOR
- (SG) SINGAPORE JAN CREDIT CARD BAD DEBTS (S$): 13.8M V 17.2M PRIOR; BILLINGS: 3.0B V 3.5B PRIOR; BANK LOANS & ADVANCES Y/Y: 28.4% V 30.3% PRIOR
- (ZA) SOUTH AFRICA JAN PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT Y/Y: 7.3% V 7.1%E; M3 MONEY SUPPLY Y/Y: 6.6% V 8.6%
- (JP) Japan Jan Vehicle Production y/y: 18.6% v 13.4% prior


***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.9%
- S&P/ASX +0.8%
- Kospi +1.2%
- Taiwan Taiex +2.0%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.8%
- Shanghai Composite -0.5%
- Hang Seng +0.3%
- S&P Futures +0.1% at 1,372
- April gold unchanged at $1,789/oz
- April Crude +0.4% at $107.00


***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were positive today after Greece PM Papademos was able to garner enough support to win the motion on austerity measures needed for the next bailout. IMF Chief Lagarde was also positive on the region saying the situation was strengthening every day. EUR/USD failed to break $1.35 but tested $1.3486. GBP/USD tested a 3-week high of $1.5920. AUD/USD tested above $1.08, a 3-week high, after generally better data from down under. According to analyst today's key data out of Australia, retail sales, construction work done and private sector credit showed no material weakness and they do not expect the RBA to cut rates and additional 25bps until late Spring at the soonest. NZD followed the Aussie testing $0.8430, the highest level since early Sept. Fin Min English affirmed he will deliver the budget by the end of May. Japan 10-yr yield rose to 0.965%, up about a half a basis point in the session. Better than expected industrial production out of Japan and South Korea added to the risk on appetite in the region. Dollar weakened across the board against the won, Taiwan and Singapore dollar and lost 0.5% to the Philippines peso. Copper saw modest gains, wheat rose 0.4% to $6.65, corn was slightly down and silver was flat heading into the European open. In US politics Republican Presidential candidate Mitt Romney took both Michigan and Arizona.


***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (TH) Thailand Central Bank: Only intervened in the baht a little last week; May increase 2012 GDP target to 6% from the current 4.9%
- Asia Development Bank (ADB): Currently reviewing growth forecasts for Asia, could be more muted than first thought due to EU situation
- (CN) China Top 4 Banks issued loans worth over CNY100B from Feb 1-24th
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BOJ) Kamezaki: Economy will be flat for the time being and recover gradually; should continue to pro-actively implement policies to achieve growth with price stability
- (US) Fed's Pianalto: Does not see inflation spurred by money supply growth; U.S. recovery has been frustratingly slow and there are still more obstacles
- (PH) Philippines Central Bank Gov Tetangco: Inflation is manageable; Sees some room for policy accommodation


***Equities***
- Alibaba, 1688.HK: $3.0B loan is broken into a $1.0B 3-yr amortizing loan and a $2.0B 1-year loan - financial press
- STAN.UK: Reports FY11 Net profit $4.85B v $4.8Be, R$17.7B v $16.1B y/y
- Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing, 388.HK: Reports FY11 Net HK$5.1B v HK$4.0Be; Rev HK$7.9B v HK$7.6B y/y
- PKX: Gets 12% discount q/q on coking coal prices from Teck
- Chalco, 2600.HK: Targeting to have over 30% of its assets outside China - Chinese press
- QAN.AU: Reports Jan passengers +8.3% y/y
- HVN.AU: Reports H1 Net A$129M v A$132M y/y; Rev A$807M v A$804M y/y
- WOR.AU: Reports H1 Net A$152M v A$129M y/y; Rev A$3.3B v A$2.9B y/y


***US Equities***
- TEG: Reports Q4 $1.01 v $0.98e; +0.8% after hours
- KOG: Reports Q4 -$0.15 v $0.09e, R$55M v $60Me; -6.3% after hours
- FSLR: Reports Q4 $1.26 (adj) v $1.54e, R$660M v $782Me; -8.0% after hours
- VRSK: Reports Q4 $0.50 v $0.44e, R$351.6M v $340Me; +9.1% after hours
- DWA: Reports Q4 $0.29 v $0.32e, R$219M v $208Me; -8.8% after hours
- WDC: Reaches Agreement With Toshiba Corporation to Divest Certain 3.5-inch HDD Assets (as speculated in the press); Terms not disclosed; +1.6% after hours


***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (US) API PETROLEUM INVENTORIES CRUDE: +520K V +1.5ME; GASOLINE: -915K V +500KE; DISTILLATE: -3.3M V -250KE
- (CN) China Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT): 2012 crude steel output about 730M tons, Consumption 690M tons
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 9,715 tons from 9,692 tons (highest since 9,743 on Dec 16th)

Friday, February 3, 2012

TradeTheNews.com Asian market update: risk appetite returns, Australia trade balance 3-month high


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(AU) Australia-Dec trade balance (A$): 1.70B v 1.20BE (1. increase in 4 months, 3-month-high) >-(AU) Australia DEC building approvals M/M: 1.0% V 2.0%E; Y/Y: 24.5% V-22.1%E
-(NZ) NEW ZEALAND JAN ANZ COMMODITY price: + 1.2% V 0.8% against (9-month high)
-(JP) JAPAN JAN MONETARY BASE Y/Y: 15.0% V 13.5% BEFORE
-Foreign Exchange RESERVE (KR) South Korea JAN: $311.3 (b) V $306 billion before (5-month high)
-(VN) Viet Nam Jan trade balance:-$ 100 M V$ 270 M ago
-(AR) Argentina Jan Steuer Rev ARS52. 8B V ARS48. 9b before


B. market snapshot (as 05: 30GMT).
-Nikkei225 + 0.7%
-S & P/ASX + 1.0%
-Kospi + 1.2%
-Taiwan TAIEX 1.4%
-Singapur Straits Times + 0.4%
-Shanghai composite + 0.6%
-Hang Seng + 1.5%
S & P futures + 0.2% by 1.322
-April gold unchanged at $1.749 / oz
-März crude oil 0.2% at $97.43


B. Overview/top headlines.
Markets were in positive territory today on the back of stronger manufacturing numbers from Europe and the United States over night, give up some confidence to the markets, the global economy that an upward trend. Discussions in Greece soldered on no solution announced, although EU speakers reaffirmed that it is "very close" to Greece reach a deal with private bond holders. With the return of some risk taking silver and copper futures both fell, S$ hit a 3-month high against the US dollar Taiwan dollar and Peso Philippines won against the greenback. Euro and pound, who both until converted, put the yen ¥ 76.12 against the dollar and ¥ 100.21 against the euro test its profits. Rhetoric of Japan fin increased min Azumi, for the fourth consecutive day, said that he would take steps to deal with the speculative movements. A$ test $1.0756 against the dollar, a 5-month high.


Stocks include well-known names Australia's Lynas Corp., which company, received rare earths to launch its long-awaited consent in Malaysia their new facility, shares jumped over 19%. Glencore in Hong Kong jumped up over 4.5% message that it is close to an agreement was combined with Britain's Xstrata. Japan saw car manufacturers also some gains on the back of the US Auto data result increased deliveries. Some of China's mining companies profit warnings, trade policy and global slowdown have issued, this will be worth an eye on as the Hong Kong and Shanghai result season ramps up. 241 Name 12: 30 local time due to a technical malfunction to suspend until Tokyo Stock Exchange trading which had in Japan.


** Speaker/geopolitical/in the press.
Some banks have reduced-(CN) mortgage rates for 1st home buyers in Shanghai and Shenzhen; Second home buyers saw interest rates rise - Chinese press
-(JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Deputy gov. Yamaguchi: Japan's economy was more or less flat; EU debt problems remain the greatest risk for Japan
-(CN) China Investment Corp (CIC) permission, China has f-Dur, banks it owns stakes cut to dividend ratios of 5% this year, Chinese press
-(CN) China Premier Wen: CNY15B commit a new Fund, which supports offer small business also tax credits and press more loans for entrepreneurs - Chinese


B. shares.
-SNE: Reports Q3 net loss of ¥ 159B V ¥ 43Be, op loss ¥ 91 information V win 7 ¥. 3be, Rev. ¥ 1.82 t V ¥ 1. fisit
-QAN.AU: Charges a$ 20-60, from Feb 15th increase national and international prize
-SKM: Reports Q4 net profit KRW196B V KRW361B y/y; Operating profit KRW329B V KRW453B y/y; Rev KRW3. 93T V KRW3. 2T y/y
-NCM.AU: CEO: gold prices expected to remain strong; Provides financial press gold price in $1,500 2,500 range in the future-
-Hynix, 000660.KR: Q4 reports net loss KRW240B V loss KRW152Be; OP loss KRW168B V loss KRW174Be; Rev KRW2. 55T V KRW2. 4Te


** US stocks.
-WMS: Q4 reports $0.57 V $0 57e, R$ 2.54 b V $2. 5be; -afterhours 1.8 %
-CMG: Q4 reports $1.81 V $1. 83e, R$ 596.7 M V $591Me; -afterhours 1.9 %
-HOTT: Q4 EPS throws 0, 19-0, $20 V $0 18e (listed $0.17-0, 19 before Jan 4); Q4 SSS + 1.3%; + 0.4% Afterhours
-QCOM: Q1 reports $0.97 V $0 90e, R$ 4.68 b V $4. 6be; + 5.0% afterhours
-JDSU: Q2 reports $0.15 V $0 10e, R$ 413 M V $391Me; + 6.1% afterhours
-CACI: Q2 reports $1.51 V $1. 30, R$ 973.2 M V $953Me; + 3.5% afterhours
-ALL: Q4 reports $1.43 V $0 95e, R$ 6.61 b V $6. 4be; + 4.4% afterhours
-EA: Reports Q3 $0.99 V $0. 93e, R$ 1.65 b V $1. 6be; + 6.0% afterhours
-Facebook: S-1 files for initial public offering up to $5b has in common ($ 5B deal than speculation); IPO can take place in the second quarter


B. FX/fixed income / commodities.
-JGB: Japan MoF sold ¥ 2.0 t in 1.0% 10-yr notes (1.0% before), bid to cover: 3.72 X V 2.99 x forward
-(CN) to China Gold Association 2011 gold production + 5.9% y/y 361 tonnes (highest level recorded date) - Chinese press
-NZD/USD: Bank of New Zealand strategist: NZD looks overextended; Possibly a correction of $0.84-85-NZ press

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