AUD/USDGraphic review: Aussie returns some of the EU gains

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Adrian Robles, 7 July 2012 00: 35 GMT prepared from Adrian Robles, EST 2 hr MarketScope chart

This week rode the AUDUSD on the market-wide optimism triggered by the Summit and by the prospect of a co-ordinated stimulus effort managed by the European Central Bank. The ECB crushed this hope on Thursday at the press conference, which ended the rally in the AUDUSD.

The AUDUSD began a reading over 50 led an expansion in manufacturing the week on a short bit, after China Manufacturing PMI surpass expectations to coverage. A survey by Bloomberg called for a contraction in the Chinese manufacturing which would have implied Australian raw materials less demand. The few Poppedon Tuesday, when may extended the building approvals by 27.3 per cent from April, brings growth in building approvals in the last 12 months by 9.3 percent. The extension in the Mai building permits was the fact that investors optimistic were bp rate in the Australian economy ahead of the 25, which highlights cut in June. The couple over the closure of two hours ended in further, but lower, after the Reserve Bank of Australia to keep cash rate (OCR) to 3.5 per cent. The couple moved a few points after the announcement, because market participants, where the accommodation already in the RBA would keep prices, cash prices.

On Thursday, the the AUDUSD almost fell 100 points after the European Central Bank the OCR on an all time cut by 0.75% lower, but offered no stimulus efforts. After the press conference flocked back to the safe haven currency is, rejects the USD to carry in the AUDUSD. The downward trend continued Friday after the June she published United States the employment data AUSUSD fall 100 points to settle at 1.0190 (at the time of writing). The FXCM US dollar index (ticker: USDollar) rallied after found that unemployment does not increase. The jump in the U.S. dollar the result of danger can be negative investors, a sideline position independent of employment data have been.

At the end of this week has again about 30 percent of the profits that were made during the two days of the EU Summit of AUDUSD and the Aussie can give more of the EU Summit WINS $, is another retreat in risk appetite.

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7 July 2012 00: 35 GMT

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Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit Results

Fundamental headlines
-Facilitated EU leaders rules of the Spain debt crisis - Bloomberg
-Euro rises after the EU abandons leaders Spain loan seniority - Bloomberg
-Why Roberts saved right from the Obama - Reuters Health
-The euro area saw only bank supervisor - WSJ
-Summit report outlines the Divisions on the sharing of power - WSJ
Summary of Asian and European Session
Oh, what a night. The past several currencies beta high days and correlated to the risk of the assets were under pressure as expectations for any kind of measures of the eurozone Summit flatly was zero. The logic was, and remains, European leaders did not have the means necessary to implement the structural reforms needed to not only stop the financial pain in the short term, but also to solve problems in the long term that first created the sovereign debt crisis.
Certainly, one of these was accomplished at the Summit this week, leading to the largest gathering of the Euro altogether by 2012. The US Dollar has had its worst day of the year; overall, we study the simple high beta currency plu displacement and correlated with the risk since 30 November 2011, when the federal reserve announced that its two years of currencies with European Central banks. Oh, what a night.
A step back in the charts for a second, we must take into account the parameters of the measures communicated to the Summit to decide or not to now almost-2 percent move in the Australian Dollar and the Euro will be long-term, or if we see some additional volatility due to the end of the month and the quarter.
In my view, there are four glaring holes in the top ads. First of all, it is clear that, in view of the language contained in the declaration, no bank recapitalisation plan by the European stability mechanism (ESM, which replaces the EFSF, the European financial stability facility) is not a guarantee; It is a possibility if strict conditions are met. Second, and stay on environmentally sound management, these changes must now be ratified by all 17 members of the Euro area; and the Germany still to ratify the agreement of the first. The ESM is therefore not be enabled. Third, the idea of the direct bank recapitalisation does serve well with taxpayers in the European core. And finally, fourth, mechanisms of rescue, in my opinion, are doomed to failure once the Italy and the Spain tap them. Once these countries tap the funds, the burden falls on the country in better health, and we have already seen that the Germany will be difficult to convince them to contribute more funds.
If there is a positive result at the Summit, it would be that the seniority has been removed from the ESM. This means that private holders who have been forced to take a cut of hair on Greek loans, have the same pain. This should allow Spanish yields recover. They have to date, with performance in Spanish note 2 years fell to 4.267 percent and performance of the note of 10 years at 6.393%.
EURUSD 5-minute: 29 June 2012
Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Australian Dollar is the now surging 1.99% against the U.S. Dollar this day Friday. The EURUSD is significantly stronger, appreciating of 1.94%. The New Zealand Dollar has followed more so, with the NZDUSD judging of 1.90%. The Japanese Yen is the worst, with the USDJPY rallying for only 0.16 per cent.
PriceAction 24-hour


Main levels: 14: 20 GMT

So far, on Friday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is significantly less, trade at 10056.19 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 10173.06. The index traded mostly lower, with the high in the 10179.54 and bass at 10049.57.

++++Aussie rallies after RBA cuts key rate by 25 Points as expected

Cut the takeaway: Reserve Bank of Australia June decision > 25 - bps rate, as expected > AUDUSD distributed on the rise
After cutting 50 basis points last month, the deterioration of Asian and European growth images prompted other rate by the Bank of Australia reserve. The RBA only reduced the rate of 25 - bps from 3.75% to 3.50%, according to the median forecast provided by Bloomberg News. However, with credit Switzerland Overnight Index swap price to 50-50 chance for a cut of 50 - bps, a surprise was in the cards and price action has certainly not disappointed.
Chart 1-minute AUDUSD: 5 June 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
Early release price action suggested that only a 25 - bps cut was due, the Dollar Australian rallying in all areas but particularly against the Yen and the U.S. Dollar. However, a few minutes before the release, it appeared that a cut of 50 - bps has filtered, with trade AUDUSD 0.9755 for only 0.9718 a minute before the decision was announced. However, with only 25 - bps down the chimney, the AUDUSD quickly regained ground and traded to 0.9791 shortly after. During the that drafting this report, the AUDUSD had plunged to its preliminary level before rising back to 0.9784.
Governor Glenn Stevens noted concerns in release covers of the RBA, with lots of time spent discussing the financial situation and global growth before touching on the evolution of the Australian economy. Presented below, without comment, are the key points of the policy statement:
Growth of the world economy, picked up in the first months of 2012, according to slow in the second half of 2011. Other moderation of growth in China. Conditions in other parts of Asia have largely recovered from the effects of natural disasters of the last year, but the trend is not clear and can be mitigated by the slowdown of Chinese growth. The United States continue to grow at a moderate pace. Raw material prices decreased lately, even if they are still mainly high. Terms of Australia of trade, reached about six months ago but they remain high. Financial markets:
The Council previously noted that Europe remains a potential source of adverse shocks. Economic and financial Europe's prospects have again been overshadowed by a weakening of growth, political uncertainty increased and concerns about the financial viability and strength of some banks. Capital markets remain open to spoil banks and corporations, but increased spreads. Long-term interest rates facing highly rated sovereign, including the Australia, have fallen to exceptionally low levels. The markets declined. In Australia:
In Australia, the available indicators suggest a modest growth continued in the first part of 2012, with significant variation between sectors. In all conditions of the labour market strengthened slightly, despite the excretion in certain industries, and the unemployment rate is low. Households and businesses continue to show a degree of behaviour of precaution, which may continue in the short term. Given this surprise (at least according to base swaps), in combination with the poor, we labour market reading Friday which has inevitably fueled speculation there, the AUDUSD might be initiated for a race towards the support of the former trendline from 0.9845/60. Gatherings should be covered by the 0.9880/0.9900, and a near daily over this area exposes 0.9930 and parity, 1.0000. Beyond these levels, we see little room for the AUDUSD to acquire new, because we believe that the ongoing stress in Asia and Europe will generate more-risk aversion, and gatherings should be seen as opportunities to sell.

: Aussie, Kiwi rally almost 1% versus the U.S. Dollar in exchange for light

May 28, 2012 13: 29 GMT  basic titles
-The Greek Pro-Bailout Parties win in the Euro falls concern – Bloomberg
-Spanish-German yield spread widens to the Record of the Euro on the funds of the Bank - Bloomberg
-Iran not ready for visits to suspect nuclear Site - Reuters
-Gold, ready to resume the status of refuge - WSJ
-Kenny calls the Ireland to the Treaty of the European Union - back WSJ
Summary of European Session
Trading in the Asian and European sessions were marked by particularly light volume, which is not surprising given the large holiday in Europe and North America. And, in view of the recent correlation between the volume and the & S P 500 (-0.956 rolling 5-day Thursday), it is even more surprising that the demand for risky assets is place in the light of the conditions of trading. Commodity currencies have been taking advantage of this environment, with the Australia and the New Zealand $ leading the majors substantially to start the last week of May.
In part, the evolution over the weekend of the Greece provided the basic thrust to trigger a movement to currencies of performance more high and correlated with the risk of the assets. Five separate surveys published this weekend showed that new democracy pro-bailout Group held a small lead of about 0.5 to 5.7 points on the anti-bailout of the Syriza party. To this end, ND would garner between 25.6% and 27.7% of the vote, while the Syriza would take home between 20.1% and 26.0% of the vote in the June elections. Offering more fuel to facilitate case, the results of two major surveys, MARC and pulse, showed that ND and PASOK, the other party pro-major bailout, together would win a parliamentary majority in June.
Investors took the results of surveys and run with them, with the AUDUSD and NZDUSD rallying 0.97% and 0.94%, respectively, to start the week. The Euro has step responded to the press, however, giving this rally in question, as it appears investors are beginning to move their main concerns to the growing indebtedness of the Italy and the Spain.
Take a look at credit, short-term performance begin to increase rapidly once more, with 2 Spanish and Italian years giving 3.807% 4.288% notes each, respectively. For the latter, it is therefore the best return in 2012. Financing constraint is evident on the longer end of the yield curve, with yields of 10 years Italian and Spanish mounted points base-3, 8 and 12. 1 - bps, respectively, of 5.679% and 6.391% each. Therefore, I believe that the evolution of the situation of the Greece is positive, they will ease not fear of the decrease in deposits in European banks. These increase yields in the major economies of Europe (Italy and Spain) will be collecting more attention before Greek elections in June.
Graphic NZDUSD of 5 min: 28 may 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The New Zealand Dollar is the top performer today, with 0.97% NZDUSD buy. The US Dollar was the worst performer in all, with it reduce the lease against the Swiss Franc, to which she lost 0.10%. The Japanese Yen was slightly higher, with the damping USDJPY of 0.34%, and the EURUSD was barely higher, up to 0.18% Monday at the time of writing.
24-Hour price Action

Main levels: 12: 30 GMT


So far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is slightly less, trade 10174.78 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 10182.24. The index traded mostly lower, with the high in the 10183.25 and the 10148.44 low.

~ Risk-Aversion in Full Swing as Japanese ¥en Outperforms Aussie, €uro

08 may 2012 13: 49 GMT  basic titles
-Traders billion stop Wall Street hedge funds - Bloomberg
-Euro nearly three months at the bottom of the concern of the Greek Branch - Bloomberg
-Surprise Netanyahu gives the Grand Israel Coalition - Reuters
-L'Europe faces new Test Greek - WSJ
-New French Test is parliamentary election - WSJ
Summary of European Session
The difficult political climate across Europe beginning to effect snowball. With London closed for a public holiday yesterday, producing more currencies and correlated with the risk of assets includes all losses at the end of the session of the fairness of the U.S. species. However, with this liquidity in the market today, it is clear that the end rally Monday was a dead cat bounce, and that the concerns raised about Europe who spent a few days are very real. To say that the disadvantage of the correlation between the risk is limited would be ignorant has it is clear that most of the market participants are fully prepared and so shocked by the political developments in Greece.
While I have previously rejected the Greece as a "ship" happened, the elections of last weekend were the catalyst necessary to deliver the Greece to the map (because in reality, if the new democracy and PASOK kept a grip on Parliament, the elections would be a non-event). After the failure to form a coalition Government yesterday, Antonis Samaras, head of the new democracy Alexis Tsipras of Syriza party was responsible for forming a new decision-making body. The leader of the left party, said today that the results of the elections made the agreement of rescue with the European troika - the European Commission, the Central Bank European and Monetary Fund International-"null and void," Noting that Greeks have end of "austerity" additional. " In addition, in what may be just grandstanding, Mr. Tsipras said that the new democracy and PASOK would go back on its promises of austerity to the troika if they want to form a coalition Government with the Syriza. If no coalition is formed new elections will be held, probably in June, which should give a greater participation of parties anti-austerity as the Syriza.
Why do these Greek games of subject political chicken? While Fitch Ratings this morning said that a Greek exit from the Euro zone would be "bearable", the ramifications of the contagion are what keeps investors at night. If the Greece is leaving, that wants to say that Portugal Won't? Will there be a restructuring of the debt? To be paid first, if anyone at all? The debt is repaid in Euros or in a new currency, such as the Drachma in the case of the Greece? These are questions which were not and not answer until time;. and the absence of a preventive response by the heart of Europe has left the region in a fragile place for the coming weeks.
Take a look at credit, Italian 2-year notes lead gainers, with performance 2.736% down. Meanwhile, in the rest of the periphery, the image is not so optimistic, with notes of 2 Irish and Portuguese years 25, 2 - bps, respectively, to the yields of 4.872% and 6.751% and reduced base-22, 7 points.
AUDUSD 5 min chart: 8 may 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Japanese Yen has been the interpreter to top the day, earn 0.10% against the Dollar, which is very recalled how the USDJPY made during the height of the crisis of the Euro area last fall. The EURUSD is also lower, having depreciated by 0.35 percent and moving under 1.30. The Australian Dollar was the worst performer, shedding of 0.69% on the Dollar.
24-Hour price Action



Level (s): 13: 00 GMT

So far, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is higher, trade 9961.56 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 9927.77. The index traded just above, with 9967.65 top and bottom to 9927.77.

""::"" Sold aggressively Aussie Post shocking RBA rate decision; Euro provides yet

-RBA shocks markets and cuts of 50 bps to 3.75 %
-Surprising decision history RBA holding
-Aussie sold aggressively across the Board in response
-Making UK that PMIS disappoint; weighs on the book
-The China manufacturing PMIS are lower than expected
-Yen continues to offers; but limited additional upside
Trade in may began with a bang after the RBA is out and shocked markets by cutting rates 50 bps to 3.75% (consensus had called for a 25bp cut). Although there is talk of the need for a 50bp of the Australian Central Bank, many, including ourselves, do not believe that the Central Bank would move so aggressively because of their traditionally more hard and less concerned about the prospects of the local and global economy. The shock was not that rates were reduced to 50 bit/s, but that a Central Bank which has persistently made an error on the hard side throughout the crisis world, finally surrendered and woke up to the reality. Better late than never, and fully support us the decision of the Central Bank and notice that there is a clarity finally present that has long been absent.
Relative performance against the USD Tuesday (from 11: 00GMT)
EUR + 0.15 %
CHF + 0.14 %
CAD-0,02 %
JPY-0,06 %
GBP-0.15 %
NZD-0.72 %
AUD-1,08 %
In the statement accompanying it, the RBA cited softer economic conditions, housing difficulties and a moderation of inflation. We believe that it is a very important decision which will have a greater influence on the market in the coming weeks. The RBA decision reaffirmed our basic view that we are still not at the end of the global crisis and only now enter the third and final phase which will intensify in the block of the products and the emerging market economies. China is at the Centre of this third phase and evidence being continuous slowdown of the Chinese economy should weigh heavily on the economies of correlation. Australia, the other block of raw material economies and emerging markets will suffer from this downturn and we believe that better trade moving forward is short goods block and EM and long major currencies.
While it is difficult to concentrate on anything at this time other than the RBA decision day, the latest data of China should certainly not be ignored, with manufacturing PMIS from milder than expected. This highlights our view and we suspect that the Australian Dollar a lot of inconvenience, especially now that the interest rate differentials and the negative report are much less daunting. Australian bulls could claim that the drop rate is positive for risk, as it is now a much more accommodating environment that will help stimulate the economy, but we buy not in this assertion, that we feel the RBA has fallen too far behind the curve and will have to play a game of catch ("get down" is perhaps more appropriate).
In addition, it will be useful to keep an eye on EUR/USD to see if the market can still push higher to test the main obstacles by 1.3300. USD/JPY is also in the securities of FX with the pair of large falling to charge several days low back below $80.00. From here, it seems that there are still deeper setbacks room, but we do not provide an expectation of the record lows of 2011 and recommend instead the search for opportunities to buy the hollow below 79.00. Finally, the book is looking a little tired an impressive surge of several days and the weaker than expected manufacturing PMIS helped to inspire the other offers of annual summits and last against the Dollar and the Euro.
TRADE OF THE DAY
EUR/USD: (this recommendation was issued last week but have been revised at the entrance and it stops). (See below). Although the last rally was impressive, we support the market is still locked in a more well defined medium to the downward trend in the long term from the record highs of 2008, and as such, seeking to sell rallies in 2012 is the best strategy. The rally has now expanded beyond 1.3200 and from there we see scope for further upside through 1.3300. However, once the 1.3300 level is tested and broken, there is a very strong technical argument for a bearish resumption. Looking at 1.3300 level shows a confluence of resistance which includes the obvious psychological barrier itself, with resistance fall of February 2012 peak trend line, band upper bollinger and a very beautiful fib of 78.6% trace off the coast of the most recent March-April, 1. 34400-1. 3000 down move. Thus, we really like the idea of the discoloration and overshoots beyond 1.3300 and place our entry accordingly. STRATEGY: Sell to 1.3320 for an open goal; STOP-LOSS on any daily closing (5 pm NEW York City time) over 1.3420.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

|> Aussie continues to slip against the Yen as expectations Surge rate cut

Fundamental headlines
-Weidmann of the Bundesbank said that no politician wants to hear - Bloomberg
-Forecasts of rate 17 Fed can confuse more clarify - Bloomberg
-The Korea of North nuclear test ready "Soon" - Reuters
-The music stopped for Wall Street banks - WSJ
-United States saw high Cop as a candidate for risk of asylum - WSJ
Summary of European Session
Risk appetite was tempered in the night as the players in the market continued to digest the political developments of the weekend outside Europe, but overall, it seems that concerns have been pushed to the side, would it temporarily. Despite the negative sense of yesterday, major European stock indexes traded relatively unchanged otherwise positive before equity money U.S. open. The major development in the night, however, was the performance of the Australian Dollar in light of a low inflation reading.
Last week, the Reserve Bank of Australia has published the minutes of the meeting earlier in April. Essentially, the minutes said that "If the readings of inflation to disappoint, the RBA will be a reduction in the rate.". Well, Sunday, the quarterly producer price index showed deflation, while this index published earlier today showed little or no underlying price pressures. In light of these developments, I believe that it is all but guaranteed that there is a reduction of 25-points; but the question is to know if there is a reduction in rate 50 - bps.
Credit Switzerland Overnight Index swap, before inflation earlier today, there was already a 93 per cent of probability of a decline in the rate of 25 - bps; After printing, there was also great as a chance of 40% for a cut of 50 - bps (with a probability of 100% of a cut of 25 - bps). If the expectations of lower rates continue to thrust, where that share the Australian Dollar? Our model suggests that, if the expectation of the Japan and the Federal Reserve Bank rate remain the same (and no other stimulus was announced), we should the AUDUSD fall to parity (1.0000) and AUDJPY to fall below 81,000.
Take a look at credit, debt in the eurozone periphery has posted a modest rebound after the underperformance of yesterday, with the earnings leader Spanish 5.850% duty of 10 years, with its yield drop by base-9 points, 5. On the more short-end of the curve, there is a significant discrepancy between the sovereign debt of the periphery, with the Spanish note of 2-year gains (11, 5 - bps), Italian note 2 years unchanged and the Irish 2-year note behind the pack (+ 19, 3 - bps).

AUDJPY 5-min Chart: April 24, 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher VecchioOverall, the Japanese Yen was the best performing major currency against the Dollar, climbing from 0.12%. The Euro was the best-performing next major, up to 0.07% against the US Dollar, as the political woes of the Euro area apparently took the day off for a tempered optimism. The worst performer is the Australian Dollar, down 0.36%, after dismal inflation about earlier today.
4-Hour Price Action

Main levels: 12: 55 GMT

Key Levels: 12:55 GMT

So far, on Tuesday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is higher, trade at 9933.68 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 9929.13. The index traded mostly higher, with the top at 9947.47 and at 9923.62.

- Asian market update: Lower Aussie CPI raises the argument

-AUSTRALIA (AU) Q1 CONSUMER prices (CPI) Q/P: 0,1% V 0.6% E; Y/Y: 1.6% V 2.2% E (lowest since Q3 2009) >-Japan (JP) MAR company services price INDEX Y/Y:-0.3% V-0.6% E (3-month high)
-China (CN) MAR the Conference Board leading economic index M/M: 0.8% V 1.0% before (3-month low)
MAR-New Zealand (NZ), NET MIGRATION: 130.0 v-300 BEFORE
-Credit card-Mar, New Zealand (NZ), m/m: 0.3% v 0.4% before; y/y: 5.2% v 4.0% against (3-month high)
-(AR) Argentina Mar budget balances (ARS): + 849 m v + 1.3 (B) y/y
*** Markets snapshot (from 04: 30GMT) ***
-Charts for-0.9%
-S and P/ASX + 0.1%
-Kospi-0.7%
-Taiwan Taiex-0.2%
-Singapore Straits Times + 0.3%
-Shanghai composite-1.4%
-Hang Seng-0.3%
-Jun S and P Futures + 0.2% of 1,365
-Gold + 0.3% in June, $ 1,637/oz
-June Crude-0.1% in the $ 102.97
* ** Review Top headlines ***
-Lower than expected inflation in Australia signs the banks possible actions at the next meeting in May. Analysts are speculating that it may be a reduction in June and may. y/y 1.6% inflation was the lowest level since Q3 2009 RBA trimmed means also arrived in at the lowest level in 5 quarters at 0.3% q/q. AUD/USD initially fell more than 60 pips $ 1.0260 before testing to $ 1.0250 fell AUD/CAD on low 5-month during the GBP/AUD rose to high 5-month $ 1.57. Australia 10-yr yield fell to record lows in the vicinity of 3.64%. ASX S and P has increased in the message and the expected cut in May during the Shanghai composite fell more than 1%. Australia Treasurer Swan says inflation core is contained and the bottom of the destination range; No risk for deflation. He said also that the lower the CPI is not a sign of slower growth. USD/JPY reduced to ¥ 80.87, while Japan 5-yr yield test 0.265%, the lowest level since October 2010. The Bank of Japan (battle of) will be meeting decision of the rate at the end of this week. Copper rose above 0.5% to $ 3.64 when silver gained 0.7% to $ 30.73. Political developments in the EU, the current French President Sarkozy coming in the second candidate of Socialists from Sunday's pre-elections and the threat of the Netherlands losing its AAA rating weighed on the markets. ECB'S Nowotny noted that the ECB bond purchase programme (SMP) is currently in "sleep mode" new targeted measures may be carried out when needed. No chance of a wider programme of bonds; Germany would not confirm such measures. Furthermore, they believed that the second LTRO began to be felt in the real economy.
*** Speakers/Geopolitical/in the press ***
-(CN) China State administration of foreign exchange (safe) repeats will ensure financial national security and combating cash flow hot
-South Korea (KR) 2013 budget to focus on welfare, education and the creation of jobs; The aim is to restore budgetary equilibrium and achieve sustainable growth-the Korean press
-(CN) China Bank Regulator (CBRC): 2012 will be a difficult year; The debt crisis in Europe, difficult to solve in the short term, the risk of a recession the euro zone is growing
-Furukawa Min Econ Japan (JP): repeats the hopes that the battle will continue to deal with the powerful monetary easing and appropriate action
-(CN) PBoC sites Zhou: China may first relax the control of borrowing costs and widen the scope of the deposit rate as part of a policy change in the financial industry-Caijing Magazine
* * The * Actions * **
-NCM.AU: Reports Q3 production gold 532.2 k oz v 579 K oz q/q; Copper 18.1 K tonnes 18.2 k tonnes of q/q
-WES.AU: Reports Q3 Rev A $ 7.85b v 7 $ 9be
-SPT.AU: Pacific Equity Partners makes second bid for Spotless, values the company at $ 745 M v and $ 711 M in front of the
-6665. JP: Toshiba pulls out of race for Japan's Elpida-press Japan
-1733. HK: Chalco taking 29.9% stake in Winsway cash HK $ 2.39b
-THE FBU.NZ: CEO: on the path to meet the forecast; NZ housing market showing signs of improvement, Australia is weak and is facing further deterioration
*** US action ***
-WFT: Reports Q1 $ 0.25 (adj) v $ 0.28; Rev. $ 3. No. 60b v $ 3.6be; -1.5% after hours
-TXN: Reports Q1 $ 0.22 (incl. $ 0,10 a fee to connect the NSM) v $ 0.29e, R $ 3.12b v $ 3.1be; + 3.7% after hours >-NFLX: Reports Q1-$ 0.08 v-. 27 e $ 0, $ 870 M v $ 867Me; -16.6% after hours
-USTREN: Reports Q1 $ 0.45 (adj) v $ 0.41e, R $ 1.27b v $ 1.2be; + 2.2% after hours
-CNI: Reports Q1 (C) $ 1.75 v C $ 1.02e. 3be v C $ 2 Rev C $ 2.34b; + 0.1% after hours
*** Fixed income/goods/Forex ***
-JGB: MoF Japan sells ¥ 1.09t 20-yr JGBs 1.7% (1,8% before); on the cover: Latimer x v 3.26 x before
-CN) PBoC offers CNY 9.0 B 28-day repo 2,80% (6 consecutive, offering the same rates); Do not sell the BOM
-(CN) China Stats Office: China pig prices mid April-2, 1%
-(AU) Australia Bureau of statistics: bulk storage of wheat grains 21.3 m tonnes of the end of March to 9% from the end of February

$ Dollar and ¥en Rise on Haven Demand, Aussie Sold as PPI Disappoints

Talking Points
Eurozone PMIs to Show Manufacturing, Services Sectors Shrank for Third Month US Dollar, Japanese Yen Advance on Safe-Haven Demand as Stocks Decline in Asia Australian Dollar Sold After PPI Misses Expectations, Stoking RBA Rate Cut Bets The preliminary set of April's Eurozone PMI readings headlines the calendar in Europe. Economists' median forecasts suggest the region-wide composite reading will print at 49.3, yielding the third-consecutive print below the 50 "boom-bust" threshold and reflecting continued contraction in manufacturing-and service-sector growth. The pace of decline is expected to moderate a bit compared with the 49.1 result recorded in March.
With the outlook for global economic growth in focus as traders size up the ability of a choppy recovery in the US offset to a recession in the currency bloc and slowdown in China, traders' response to the release ought to be relatively straight-forward. An upside surprise above the "50" threshold is likely to prove supportive for the Euro as well as risk appetite at large, while a disappointing one can be expected to have the opposite effect. Indeed, in the latter scenario would imply stronger headwinds to world output as well as greater scope for future ECB policy easing.
The Japanese Yen and US Dollar outperformed in overnight trade as stocks declined, boosting demand for the go - to safe haven currencies. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index slid 0.4 percent. The HSBC China Manufacturing PMI gauge printed at 49.1 in April, showing the factory sector shrank for the sixth consecutive month (albeit at a slower pace than in March).
The Australian Dollar boron the brunt of the selloff after first - quarter Producer Price Index figures disappointed, showing wholesale inflation slowed to an annual pace of 1.4 percent. The result marked the weakest reading since the second quarter of 2010 and reinforced expectations calling for the RBA to cut interest rates in May. The markets now price in a 94 percent probability of a 25bps reduction in headline borrowing costs (according to data compiled by Credit Switzerland).
Asia Session: What Happened
Producer Price Index (QoQ) (1Q)
Producer Price Index (YoY) (1 Q)
Flash HSBC China Manufacturing PMI (APR)
Euro Session: What to Expect
French Own-Company Production Outlook (APR)
French Production Outlook Indicator (APR)
French Business Confidence Indicator (APR)
Real Estate Index Family Homes (1 Q)
French PMI Manufacturing (APR P)
German PMI Manufacturing (APR has)
Euro-Zone PMI Composite (APR has)
Euro-Zone PMI Manufacturing (APR has)
Euro-Zone PMI Services (APR has)
Euro-Zone Government Debt/GDP Ratio (2011)
Critical Levels

> Aussie leads after data of the work while the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar fight

Fundamental headlines

-Decrease in deposits at its lowest since 2007 U.S. foreclosure - Bloomberg

-Yellen said jobs Outlook accommodating political mandates - Bloomberg

-Silent guns in the hours after the truce of Syria - Reuters

-Italian short term results - WSJ

-Will be the Inflation Kill there hopes? -WSJ

Summary of European Session

In recent weeks, the sense of global investors has eroded for two main reasons: the eurozone sovereign debt crisis. and the slowdown in China's growth. The currency which has been influenced the most by these events has easily been the Australian Dollar. Since March 1, the Australian Dollar was the main currency of less powerful, loser 3.10% to the US Dollar; This performance looks particularly brutal from the relatively strong performance by Canadians and the NZ $ in the same image, when they have only lost 0.98% and 1.31% against the US Dollar, respectively.

That these concerns, the Australian Dollar in circulation have accumulated, expectations of lower rates have soared in recent weeks, with the credit Switzerland Overnight Index Swaps suggests (as recent as yesterday) a chance to 97.0% a rate at the next meeting of the Australia Reserve Bank. Primarily, policymakers expressed concerns in a housing market deflate, price pressures, cooling and the labour market recently struggling.

The release of labour market last night has certainly facilitated some of the concerns of the decision-makers of the RBA. Not only data rash printing - 44.0 k actual versus 6.5 k scheduled - but partial picked up immensely, usually a sign that firms seek to expand their work forces (it is usually a precursor to employment full time).

For today, with decision makers to be a little less concerned about the economy - also marked less than 5.2% unemployment rate - rate cut expectations have decreased considerably, with the credit Switzerland ISB now showing a 82.0 percent chance of a rate of 25 points, 0-base cut at the next meeting of the RBA. The Australian Dollar has responded accordingly, surging against the lower yield currencies, the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar, levels tests key technical against him that would justify a change in medium-term exchange rate forecasts.

Take a look at credit, the market players continue to push the debt of periphery of the Euro zone after the comment by Benoit Couere who suggested that the ECB could resume to buy Spanish debt, Member of the Board of the Central Bank European. The periphery debt responded positively, the yields of 10 Italian years and falling Spanish 5.390 and 5.781%, respectively.

AUDJPY 5 min chart: 12 April 2012

Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio

Overall, the Australian Dollar was the best performance of the major currencies, gaining 0.85% against the US Dollar. Products and European currencies were strong overall, with Canadians and the NZ $ 0.38% and 0.48% respectively, while the Euro firmed by 0.23% against the Dollar but two sessions Thursday. The Japanese Yen has been the worst performer, down 0.06%.

24-Hour price Action

Key levels: 13: 55 GMT

So far, on Thursday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is low, trade at 9938.80 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 9968.85. The index traded only lower, with the high in the 9968.92 and the 9922.03 low.

FOREX NEWS - Euro, Aussie bounce but dollar to win out

* Euro hits three-week high of $1.3294, Aussie recovers lostground * Moves seen in thin trade, dollar should remain firm onU.S. outlook * Euro zone, China slowdown concerns hamper risk sentiment By Neal Armstrong LONDON, March 23 (Reuters) - The euro and the Australiandollar bounced back against the U.S. dollar on Friday asconcerns over a slowdown in China and the euro zone easedslightly, but dealers said the greenback would be supported bythe improving outlook in the United States. Worries about faltering global growth in the euro zone andChina, which had hit stocks and riskier currencies a dayearlier, eased off slightly tempering demand for safer bets suchas the dollar and the yen. The dollar slipped to a three-week low versus the euro and the Swiss franc, also plumbing a two-weektrough against a basket of currencies but traders saidthe sell-off was in thin liquidity and expected the greenback tohold firm. "We've definitely seeing a rotation of growth expectationswith the U.S. outlook marginally better and China's outlookmarginally downgraded. This should be positive for the dollar,"said Geoff Kendrick, currency strategist at Nomura. "But it's been thin this week and the market still seems tobe undecided which may explain the volatile moves. I think weneed to see U.S. 10-year yields break above 2.4 percent forfurther dollar gains." U.S. 10-year notes yielded around 2.26 percenton Friday after stalling shy of 2.40 percent on Tuesday. Signsof improvement in U.S. economic conditions have boosted yieldsand the dollar in recent weeks. The dollar-index was down around 0.4 percent for the dayafter slipping to 79.214. It hit a two-month high of 80.738earlier this month. The euro climbed from Thursday's low of $1.3133, rising toa three-week high of $1.3293 before dipping back to$1.3253, up 0.4 percent for the day. Many market players remain short of euros on worries over aneconomic slowdown and high levels of sovereign debt in many eurozone countries, notably Spain, but for now the common currencywas gaining respite. "A week short on data and events is likely to end as itbegan - with illiquid trade and the resulting intraday jumps inEUR-USD. As a result any jerks up or down might easily knockmarket participants out of their positions in the range between1.3000 and 1.3335," said Commerzbank in a note. YEN SLIPS The euro rose 0.6 percent to 109.55 yen, in themiddle of the week's 108.49/111.57 range. Yen weakness was reinforced on selling by Japan importers,whose purchases of fossil fuels have surged as most nuclearreactors in the country were taken offline after the Fukushimadisaster last year. The yen is likely to benefit from repatriation flows aheadof the Japanese fiscal year-end on March 31, but any gains couldprove fleeting given how determined the Bank of Japan is to keepmonetary policy ultra-loose. "While we could see some short-term bounce going into thefiscal year-end, the broad trend for the yen is lower," saidSimon Derrick, head of currency research, at Bank of New YorkMellon. "Given how successful the Bank of Japan has been in pushingthe yen lower, they will look to pump additional funds and thatwill keep the yen weaker." The greenback has gained 7.5 percent against the yen sincethe start of this year, while the euro has jumped more than 10percent, with gains picking after the Bank of Japan surprisinglyeased policy by announcing more quantitative easing in February. The Australian dollar recouped some of this week's heavylosses against the yen to trade up around 0.1 percent on the dayat 86.00 yen, but investors are likely to be cautiousabout perceived riskier currencies amid growing signs of aglobal slowdown. The Aussie moved further away from a two-month low of$1.0336 hit on Thursday to trade as high as $1.0450.Traders said stop-loss buy orders had been triggered at$1.0420/30, while Asian sovereign supply was noted around thehighs as it later eased back below $1.0400.© Thomson Reuters 2011. All rights reserved. 

FOREX NEWS - Dollar rises as risk sours; Aussie hit

** $ Rises and large markets fall equity
B. concerned about China, like BHP Billiton iron ore demand is flattening
** The last increase in income U.S. dollar supported but can be overdone
By Neal Armstrong
(LONDON, March 20 Reuters) - the dollar edges against a basket of currencies on Tuesday, helps safe-harbour needs such as risk sour mood, and made strong gains against the Australian dollar amid concerns that China's hunger for commodities could be slowed.
The Aussie fell 0.8 per cent on the day, $1.0528, saw coming under pressure after global miner BHP Billiton said it character, the iron ore demand growth in China, Australia's biggest export market was flattening.
Concerns that a slowdown in China could meet world economic growth pushed the dollar index up 0.2 percent to 79.659, on the way to its high of 80.738, March a break about the greenback to the highest level since Jan. 18 would take.
"There is a stronger (United States) dollar move in General today with any reference, that more than expected, especially in China growth is slowing generally negative for the risk and the Australian and New Zealand dollars", Adam Cole said head, global of FX Strategy at RBC capital markets.
The dollar recent upsurge was driven by the improvement of the U.S. data and a modest improvement in the economic prospects of the US Federal Reserve in its latest policy statement. Which prompted investors back for more monetary easing in the near future expectations on that, to inspire, to scale an increase in the U.S. Treasury yields.
The 10-year US Treasury yield rose to high 2,392 percent on Monday, its highest level since the end of October.
'S finished the two year Treasury yield Monday U.S. trade to about 0.38 percent, not far from last week high 0.414%, its highest level since late July.
"The recent dollar rally was based on unrealistic expectations for U.S. prices, and I don't think that it is justified", Cole said.
"The market price hikes much earlier as the FOMC has specified for set", he added.
EURO/DOLLAR VULNERABLE
Euro eased 0.2 percent to $1.3211, slip away from a a week-high close to $1.3266 on Monday hit.
Market participants remain aware of the sovereign debt crisis the risk again flare up the euro zone, and annoyed that Portugal need to restructure its debt as Greece might at some point, but there are some signs of a stabilisation in the euro zone bond markets this year.
For example, the spread stood yield on ten-year Italian Government bonds over their German colleagues at 282 basis points on Tuesday, down from around 535 basis points on Jan. 9.
Investors eyes talks between Government and unions of Italy on reforms seen to turn key to the third largest economy in the euro zone.
Prime Minister Mario Monti was meeting Tuesday with union bosses about success or failure of his short term of Office as head of Government struggling to pay massive debts and find ways to an economy revive greatly decreased the annual production is.
In the near future, the euro could be vulnerable against the dollar given the diverging prospects for the United States and euro-zone economies, Rob Ryan, FX strategist for BNP Paribas in Singapore said.
"The (euro) disadvantage probably a little more susceptible because of the continuing improvement in the US data", said Ryan.
Moves are picked the dollar against the yen in European trading were closed after a quiet Asian session in the Japanese financial markets for a national holiday.
The dollar 0.4 percent to 83.73 yen, entered 11-month high of 84.187 meeting on Thursday on trading platform EBS back direction.
A fresh four-month low against the euro of 110.70 yen hit the yen. The Japanese currency has suffered Japan of monetary relief in mid-February surprise last month after the Bank.

OpenBook’s Aussie Bulls Buy on Dip as China’s Trade Balance Surprises

China’s General Administration of Customs earlier reported that January’s trade balance rose to a 27.30 billion surplus from December’s 16.52 billion, well above the consensus call for a decline to 10.40 billion. With China being Australia’s largest export partner, the news struck the AUD/USD pair almost immediately, which fell from a recent 6-month peak of $1.0845 to 1.0715 as of this writing; sentiment on OpenBook favors bulls by a 2-to-1 ratio as traders look to buy at the dip. Also weighing on the commodity-linked currency is growing doubts that Greece will be able to survive given the harsh austerity demands required as a prerequisite to the next bailout loan.

Trader nurmohd, who just started trading on OpenBook, has successfully executed 15 trades in the pair, and his 100% allocation to the Aussie-Dollar has returned 110% profit. In the past 24-hours this trader has opened and closed both longs and shorts, with each trade returning a profit of no less than 92% with the highest trade returning 126%. Whether this string of successes could be chalked up to beginner’s luck isn’t obvious, but close watching of this trader is clearly warranted.

According to the report imports dropped 15.3% in January as compared to the previous year, while exports dropped 0.5%. Analysts point out that the Chinese trade data could be deceiving, distorted by seasonal data and last month’s Lunar New York holiday and that overall demand remains positive. GDP is expected to accelerate given that Beijing has begun implementing stimulatory measures.

OpenBook trader powerfrank from Germany closed a short position in the pair to a 43.7% return; this trader with 104 followers and 9 copiers has recorded a 160% profit over the past six months. This trader allocates 70% to currencies and 30% to commodities, with the AUD/USD allocation representing 2.5% of the portfolio, and the return on it has been 9.3%.

Copyright 2012 eToro Blog

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FOREX NEWS-Euro resilient; Aussie eyes RBA rate decision

* Markets appear optimistic that Greece will secure rescue deal
* Athens baulking at accepting painful terms for new package
* Aussie holds firm in face of possible rate cut by RBA
By Ian Chua
SYDNEY, Feb 7 (Reuters) - The euro held steady in Asia on Tuesday as markets remained sanguine that Greece will eventually clinch a rescue package, even as the country's political leaders delayed their decision to accept painful terms by yet another day.
Failure to secure the 130 billion euro ($170 billion) rescue would risk pushing Athens into a chaotic debt default and destabilise the entire euro zone, an outcome deemed too extreme to contemplate.
That was seen keeping euro bears restrained for now at least, resulting in a volatile but resilient single currency. It stood at $1.3122 on Tuesday, little changed from late New York levels. A recovery from $1.3026 overnight kept the common currency within reach of a six-week peak around $1.3230 set last week.
Only a clear break of $1.3020 would see the euro move to $1.2930-50, the Jan 25 low and then to $1.2855-75 the 61.8 percent retracement of the $1.2624-1.3233 rally in January, traders said.
Still, without a clear outcome for Greece, the euro will remain choppy.
"The stalemate among the three political parties comes ahead of the April elections, implying that this in large part could be domestic politicking," analysts at BNP Paribas wrote in a note. "As these talks continue, the euro will likely remain vulnerable to any headline risk."
The euro's resilience saw the dollar index retreat to 79.076, from a session high of 79.516, still uncomfortably close to an 8-week trough of 78.623 plumbed on Feb 1.
Against the yen, the dollar was steady at 76.55, taking a breather after creeping up from 76.20 on the back of upbeat U.S. jobs data last Friday.
Among commodity currencies, the Australian dollar is the one to watch ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) rate decision due at 0330 GMT. It stood at $1.0720, near a six-month peak set last week.
Interbank futures imply a 56 percent chance of a 25 basis point cut to the 4.25 percent cash rate, while many analysts polled by Reuters believe the RBA has room to cut given a benign inflation environment.
"The RBA may well take advantage of an overbought AUD/USD to squeeze it lower by proving more dovish than expected," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale.
"The washout should be an opportunity to sell the downside in AUD/USD as it is likely to remain very much bid as a high yielding currency in an environment of extremely low yields and this in spite of deteriorating fundamentals."
Should the RBA surprise by leaving rates unchanged, the Aussie could re-test Friday's peak and then target the 29-year high of $1.1081 set in July.

Aussie Dollar Lifted by Sentiment and Economic Data

 The Aussie Dollar gained against the U.S. Dollar after the release of positive economic reports from Australia. Australian trade surplus increased to 1.7 billion Australian dollars in December. This was much higher than analyst expectations of a surplus of 1.2 billion Australian dollars. In November, the trade surplus printed at 1.3 billion Australian dollars. Exports rose by 2% to 27.8 billion Australian dollars and imports rose by 1% to 26.1 billion Australian dollars. This is a positive sign for the Australian economy which indicates that the economy has been able to fight off the effects of the global economic slowdown. In a separate report, housing approvals for December fell 1%. This was worse than the 4% rise expected by analysts.

OpenBook trader erohal2009 closed profitable positions on the AUDUSD by going against the trend. This trader shorted the AUDUSD near 1.0730 and closed it for gains between 13% and 14% when the AUDUSD dropped to 1.0700. After booking profits at 1.0700, this trader opened a second short with target at 1.0675. This trader has 97 copiers and 618 followers so far on OpenBook. The trader has performed well in the past thirty days returning 25% gains.

OpenBook trader Dashing4xPro has been looking for opportunities to short the Japanese Yen. This trader has booked profitable positions on the GBPJPY, EURJPY and AUDJPY in the last twenty four hours with gains from 3.2% to 8.5%. With the Japanese Yen reaching towards it record high levels once again; there is a high likelihood of intervention. Trader Dashing4xPro is up 17.1% this week and is holding long positions with the GBPJPY with targets between 124.00 and 127.00. The trader has 256 copiers and 2256 followers so far on OpenBook.

Asian markets were up for the day following the gains on Wall Street. The Japanese Nikkei was up 67 points, the Hang Seng was up 376 points, the Shanghai index was up 47 points and the Australian S&P ASX was up 42 points for the day. Traders on OpenBook are primarily long the AUDUSD with average limits at 1.0800 and stops at 1.0550.

 

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Greek PSI offer rejected, Japan fiscal and economic outlook cloudy, IMF to Aussie banks - raise your capital

- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0% TO 0.10% AS EXPECTED; LOWERS GDP FORECASTS AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT (3rd consecutive cut)
- North America Semi Equipment Industry DEC Sales book to bill ratio: 0.88 v 0.83 (3rd consecutive monthly increase)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: -0.3% V 0.5% PRIOR (5-month low)
- (IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) CUTS CASH RESERVE RATIO (CRR) BY 50BPS to 5.50% (not expected); LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.50%, AS EXPECTED

***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi closed
- Taiwan Taiex closed
- Singapore Straits Times Index closed
- Shanghai Composite closed
- Hang Seng closed
- S&P Futures -0.3 at 1,307
- Feb Gold -0.2% at $1,674/oz
- March Crude +0.2% at $99.81

***Overview/Top Headlines***
- For the second consecutive day only Australia and Japan were open due to the New Year's celebrations, equities markets were decidedly more positive today with hopes that a resolution may be reached for Greece. EU's Juncker said that the PSI must achieve 120% debt to GDP target in 2020 and that the Greek program is off track, action needs to be taken before there is a new program. Ministers rejected an offer out of the PSI, made from the private bondholders on how to restructure Greek debt, ministers said to be pushing the group to agree to receive less than 4% on the restructured debt.

- EU Fin Mins also talked about stronger budget rules for EU members and got a few steps closer on finalizing the structure for the permanent EU bailout fund. France Fin Min Baroin said that there was good progress made on the ESM treaty, expects it to be signed Jan 30th. Agreement said to say the ESM can make loans without unanimous govt backing and will only require support of 85% of eurozone governments.

- EUR/USD came off its 3 week high, staying mostly unchanged for the Asian session. AUD/USD lost 30 pips to $1.0493. The other major currencies were little changed. Brent crude held around $110.60 as Iran sanctions are agreed upon around the globe including the EU. US Treasury yields helped to push Japan's 10-yr JGB yield to 1%, the highest level since mid-Dec.

- As expected the Bank of Japan left its target rate unchanged. It cut its economic assessment for the 3rd consecutive time, saying "economic activity has been more or less flat, mainly due to effects of slowdown in overseas economy and appreciation of JPY." The BoJ as promised, also updated GDP forecasts cutting FY11/12 to -0.4% from +0.3% and FY12/13 to +2% from +2.2% and raising FY13/14. CPI forecast for FY11/12 was cut to -0.1% from 0.0% prior, other years were confirmed. Also, Japan Cabinet Office guides FY15 primary deficit of 3.6% of GDP; Will miss budget surplus in FY20 even with 10% sales tax, deficit will be 3.1% of GDP. This puts Japan's sovereign rating in danger of a downgrade, outlook is already negative.

- Even though the IMF report on Australia is not expected until June, the IMF has instructed Australia's biggest banks to increase their capital. IMF said that the banks may not be able to withstand dual shock of residential property downturn and losses on corporate lending. The IMF noted the main vulnerabilities of the Australian banking sector was their exposure to highly indebted households through residential mortgage lending, together with their large levels of short-term offshore borrowing.

***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Declining trade surplus in Japan confirms that domestic industry is being hollowed out; Japan to face further trade deficit if JPY remains strong - Nikkei News
- (CN) China Central Bank (PBoC) Gov Zhou: Chinese companies need to rely less on S&P, Fitch and Moody's for credit assessments and do more of their own due diligence - China Newsweek
- (AU) Australia Manufacturing Min Carr rejects suggestions that car subsidies should be wound back, calling the industry a foundation stone ton Australia manufacturing - The Australian
- (PT) US Financial press comments that a growing number of analysts, economists and politicians worry that Portugal will need a second bailout in 2013 when it has €9B in debt coming due

***Equities***
- LYC.AU: Announces new cornerstone investor; Raising $225M through convertible bond issuance
- 9501.JP: Nippon Life Insurance Co., Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co, and two other insurers may offer TEPCO ¥100B in syndicated loans as early as April - Nikkei News
- NCM.AU: Reports Q2 gold output 579K vs 587.3K q/q, -20% y/y; Copper 18.2K tons vs 19.2K q/q

***US Equities***
- VMW: Reports Q4 $0.62 v $0.60e, R$1.06B v $1.0Be; Guides initial FY12 Rev $4.48-4.6B v $4.5Be; +4.7% afterhours
- TXN: Reports Q4 $0.25 (incl $0.23 in charges) v $0.39e, R$3.42B v $3.3Be; CFO: Saw a resumption of demand across a broad range of products in the quarter; +3.6% afterhours
- STM: Reports Q4 -$0.01 v -$0.03e, R$2.19B v $2.2Be; Guides Q1 Rev -10% to -4% q/q (implies $1.97-2.10B v $2.1Be); +1.9% afterhours
- WDC: Reports Q2 $1.51(adj) v $0.71e, R$1.99B v $1.8Be; Guides Q3 $1.15-1.45 (ex items) v $0.91e, R$2.0-2.15B v $2.0Be; +5.2% afterhours
- PLCM: Reports Q4 $0.41 v $0.29e, R$407.0M v $401Me; +14.0% afterhours
- CSX: Reports Q4 $0.43 v $0.44e, R$2.95B v $3.0Be; -3.0% afterhours
- CR: Reports Q4 $0.88 v $0.90e, R$632M v $650Me; Guides initial FY12 $3.75-3.95 v $3.86e, Rev +5-6% (implies $2.67-2.70B v
$2.7Be); -0.2% afterhours

***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): Domestic pork prices +3.0% in Jan 11th-20th period - financial press
- FCG.NZ: New Zealand Commerce Commission announces plans for annual monitoring of milk prices in New Zealand - Dominion Post
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 5.2 tons to 1,250.5 tons (lowest since 1,245.1 on Nov 11th)

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TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Griechisch PSI Angebot abgelehnt, Japan Fiskal- und Wirtschaftspolitik Outlook bewölkt, IWF, Aussie Banken - erhöhen Ihr Kapital

-(JP) BANK of JAPAN (BOJ) leaves RATE ZIELBAND unaltered between 0.0% to 0.10% as expected; LOWERS GDP forecasts and economic evaluation (3 consecutive cut)
-Nordamerika semi equipment industry DEC sale book to bill ratio: 0.88 v 0.83 (3 consecutive monthly increase)
-(AU) Australia NOV INDEX leading CONFERENCE BOARD: 0.3% V 0.5% prior (5-month low)
-(IN) of the Central Bank of India (RBI) cuts CASH RESERVE set (CRR) by 50 basis points to 5.50% (not expected); LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.50%, AS EXPECTED
* Market snapshot (as 05: 30GMT) *.
-Nikkei225 + 0.2%
S & P/ASX unchanged
-Kospi closed
-Taiwan closed TAIEX
-Singapur Straits Times Index closed
-Shanghai composite closed
-Hang Seng closed
S & P futures 0.3 in 1.307
-Feb gold 0.2% to $1.674 / oz
-März raw + 0.2% at $99,81
* Overview/top headlines *.
-For the second consecutive day, celebrating only in Australia and Japan as a result of the new year were opened, were stock markets significantly more positive today with the hope that a resolution for Greece can be reached. EU Juncker said that the PSI has to reach 120% debt/GDP target in 2020 and the Greek program off course, action must be run before there is a new program. Minister declined a proposal by PSI, made from the private bondholders to the Greek debt restructure, to reconcile Ministers for the group, less than 4% of press received it for the restructured debt.
-EU fin min also members of the EU stronger budgetary rules favour and bailout funds got the structure for the permanent EU steps closer at the end. France fin min Baroin said that it expected good progress in the ESM agreement signed Jan 30th. Agreement under say the ESM can secure loans without unanimous Govt and need only 85% of the euro-zone Governments.
EUR / USD came from his 3 weeks remain high, especially for the Asian session unchanged. AUD/USD lost 30 points to $1.0493. The other major currencies were little changed. Brent crude oil was around $110.60 as Iran sanctions around the globe, including the EU be agreed. U.S. Treasury yields contributed to press Japan 10-yr JGB yield 1%, its highest level since mid Dec.
How expected the Bank of Japan left unchanged the target data rate. Times its economic assessment for the third consecutive say cutting "Economic activity more or less flat, was overseas and appreciation of the yen mainly due to the impact of the economic slowdown." The BoJ as promised, also updated forecasts GDP cut FY11/12-0.4% from 0.3% to FY12/13, + 2% of 2.2% and increase the FY13 / 14. CPI forecast for FY11/12 on - 0, 1 was cut % 0.0%, other years have been confirmed. Japan Cabinet Office leads also FY15 primary deficit of 3.6% of GDP; Miss budget surplus in FY20 with 10% VAT, 3.1% of GDP deficit. This is Japan's sovereign note in danger, a downgrade, Outlook already negative.
-Although the report of the IMF Australia is expected not until June, has the IMF of Australia's largest banks increase dependent on their capital. IMF, said that the banks not dual shock residential property downturn and losses on loans of companies able to withstand. The IMF found the main vulnerabilities of the Australian banking sector their exposure to highly indebted households was loans, along with their Great Plains short-term borrowing, the offshore by mortgage loans.
* Speakers/geopolitical/in the press *.
-(JP) Japan Econ min Furukawa: falling trade surplus in Japan confirms that the domestic industry; is being eroded is Japan next trade deficit face when JPY remains strong - Nikkei news
-(CN) Central Bank of China (PBoC) gov Zhou: Chinese businesses rely less on S & P, Fitch and Moody's credit ratings and more their own due diligence – China Newsweek must do for
-(AU) Australia manufacturing min Carr rejects suggestions that car subsidies that are coiled should call the industry a cornerstone sound Australia production - the Australian
-(PT) US financial press which are a growing number of analysts, economists and politicians worried that Portugal need a second rescue mission in 2013 if she has €9B debt due
* Shares *.
-LYC.AU: Announces new cornerstone investor; Increase in $225 M through the issue of convertible bonds
-9501.JP: Nippon life insurance co., Dai-Ichi Seimei life insurance and two other insurers provide TEPCO ¥ 100 (b) syndicated loan already in April - Nikkei news
-NCM.AU: Q2 reports gold issue 579 K vs 587.3 K Q/Q, -20% y/y; Copper 18.2 K tons vs. 19.2 K Q/q
* US shares *.
-VMW: Q4 reports $0.62 V $0. 60s, R$ 1.06 b V $1. 0be; Leader first FY12 Rev $4.48 - release 4.6B V $4. 5be; + 4.7% afterhours
-TXN: Q4 reports $0.25 (incl. $0.23 fees) V $0 genn'e, R$ 3.42 b V $3. 3be; CFO: a recovery of in demand in a wide range of products SAH in the quarter; + 3.6% afterhours
-STM: Q4-V reports $0.01-$ 0 03e, R$ 2.19 b V $2. 2be; Q1 Rev-10% results in up to 4% Q/Q (implies V $2. 1be) $1.97-2.10B; + 1.9% afterhours
-WDC: Reports Q2 $1.51(adj) V $0. 71e, R$ 1.99 b V $1. 8be. Q3 $1. 15-1, 45 (ex items) V $0 91e, R$ 2.0 - leads 2.15B V $2. 0be; + 5.2% afterhours
-PLCM: Q4 reports $0.41 V $0 29e, R$ 407.0 M V $401Me; + 14.0% afterhours
-CSX: Q4 reports $0.43 V $0 44e, R$ 2.95 b V $3. 0be; -3.0% afterhours
-CR: Q4 reports $0.88 V $0 90e, R$ 632 M V $650Me; Leader first FY12 $3, 75-3.95 V $3. 86, Rev + 5-6% (implies $2.67 - 2.70B v)
$2. 7be); 0.2% Afterhours
* FX/fixed income / commodities *.
-(CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): domestic pork prices + 3.0% in Jan 11-20 period - financial press
-FCG.New Zealand: New Zealand Commerce Commission announces plans for annual monitoring of the milk prices in New Zealand - Dominion Post
-GLD: Gold trust ETF daily holdings fall SPDR by 5.2 tonnes to 1,250.5 tonnes (lowest since 1,245.1 on Nov 11th)

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: Greek PSI offer rejected, Japan fiscal and economic outlook cloudy, IMF to Aussie banks - raise your capital

- (JP) BANK OF JAPAN (BOJ) LEAVES TARGET RATE RANGE UNCHANGED BETWEEN 0.0% TO 0.10% AS EXPECTED; LOWERS GDP FORECASTS AND ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT (3rd consecutive cut)
- North America Semi Equipment Industry DEC Sales book to bill ratio: 0.88 v 0.83 (3rd consecutive monthly increase)
- (AU) AUSTRALIA NOV CONFERENCE BOARD LEADING INDEX: -0.3% V 0.5% PRIOR (5-month low)
- (IN) INDIA CENTRAL BANK (RBI) CUTS CASH RESERVE RATIO (CRR) BY 50BPS to 5.50% (not expected); LEAVES REPO RATE UNCHANGED AT 8.50%, AS EXPECTED
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 +0.2%
- S&P/ASX unchanged
- Kospi closed
- Taiwan Taiex closed
- Singapore Straits Times Index closed
- Shanghai Composite closed
- Hang Seng closed
- S&P Futures -0.3 at 1,307
- Feb Gold -0.2% at $1,674/oz
- March Crude +0.2% at $99.81
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- For the second consecutive day only Australia and Japan were open due to the New Year's celebrations, equities markets were decidedly more positive today with hopes that a resolution may be reached for Greece. EU's Juncker said that the PSI must achieve 120% debt to GDP target in 2020 and that the Greek program is off track, action needs to be taken before there is a new program. Ministers rejected an offer out of the PSI, made from the private bondholders on how to restructure Greek debt, ministers said to be pushing the group to agree to receive less than 4% on the restructured debt.
- EU Fin Mins also talked about stronger budget rules for EU members and got a few steps closer on finalizing the structure for the permanent EU bailout fund. France Fin Min Baroin said that there was good progress made on the ESM treaty, expects it to be signed Jan 30th. Agreement said to say the ESM can make loans without unanimous govt backing and will only require support of 85% of eurozone governments.
- EUR/USD came off its 3 week high, staying mostly unchanged for the Asian session. AUD/USD lost 30 pips to $1.0493. The other major currencies were little changed. Brent crude held around $110.60 as Iran sanctions are agreed upon around the globe including the EU. US Treasury yields helped to push Japan's 10-yr JGB yield to 1%, the highest level since mid-Dec.
- As expected the Bank of Japan left its target rate unchanged. It cut its economic assessment for the 3rd consecutive time, saying "economic activity has been more or less flat, mainly due to effects of slowdown in overseas economy and appreciation of JPY." The BoJ as promised, also updated GDP forecasts cutting FY11/12 to -0.4% from +0.3% and FY12/13 to +2% from +2.2% and raising FY13/14. CPI forecast for FY11/12 was cut to -0.1% from 0.0% prior, other years were confirmed. Also, Japan Cabinet Office guides FY15 primary deficit of 3.6% of GDP; Will miss budget surplus in FY20 even with 10% sales tax, deficit will be 3.1% of GDP. This puts Japan's sovereign rating in danger of a downgrade, outlook is already negative.
- Even though the IMF report on Australia is not expected until June, the IMF has instructed Australia's biggest banks to increase their capital. IMF said that the banks may not be able to withstand dual shock of residential property downturn and losses on corporate lending. The IMF noted the main vulnerabilities of the Australian banking sector was their exposure to highly indebted households through residential mortgage lending, together with their large levels of short-term offshore borrowing.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (JP) Japan Econ Min Furukawa: Declining trade surplus in Japan confirms that domestic industry is being hollowed out; Japan to face further trade deficit if JPY remains strong - Nikkei News
- (CN) China Central Bank (PBoC) Gov Zhou: Chinese companies need to rely less on S&P, Fitch and Moody's for credit assessments and do more of their own due diligence - China Newsweek
- (AU) Australia Manufacturing Min Carr rejects suggestions that car subsidies should be wound back, calling the industry a foundation stone ton Australia manufacturing - The Australian
- (PT) US Financial press comments that a growing number of analysts, economists and politicians worry that Portugal will need a second bailout in 2013 when it has €9B in debt coming due
***Equities***
- LYC.AU: Announces new cornerstone investor; Raising $225M through convertible bond issuance
- 9501.JP: Nippon Life Insurance Co., Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co, and two other insurers may offer TEPCO ¥100B in syndicated loans as early as April - Nikkei News
- NCM.AU: Reports Q2 gold output 579K vs 587.3K q/q, -20% y/y; Copper 18.2K tons vs 19.2K q/q
***US Equities***
- VMW: Reports Q4 $0.62 v $0.60e, R$1.06B v $1.0Be; Guides initial FY12 Rev $4.48-4.6B v $4.5Be; +4.7% afterhours
- TXN: Reports Q4 $0.25 (incl $0.23 in charges) v $0.39e, R$3.42B v $3.3Be; CFO: Saw a resumption of demand across a broad range of products in the quarter; +3.6% afterhours
- STM: Reports Q4 -$0.01 v -$0.03e, R$2.19B v $2.2Be; Guides Q1 Rev -10% to -4% q/q (implies $1.97-2.10B v $2.1Be); +1.9% afterhours
- WDC: Reports Q2 $1.51(adj) v $0.71e, R$1.99B v $1.8Be; Guides Q3 $1.15-1.45 (ex items) v $0.91e, R$2.0-2.15B v $2.0Be; +5.2% afterhours
- PLCM: Reports Q4 $0.41 v $0.29e, R$407.0M v $401Me; +14.0% afterhours
- CSX: Reports Q4 $0.43 v $0.44e, R$2.95B v $3.0Be; -3.0% afterhours
- CR: Reports Q4 $0.88 v $0.90e, R$632M v $650Me; Guides initial FY12 $3.75-3.95 v $3.86e, Rev +5-6% (implies $2.67-2.70B v
$2.7Be); -0.2% afterhours
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- (CN) China Ministry of Commerce (MOFCOM): Domestic pork prices +3.0% in Jan 11th-20th period - financial press
- FCG.NZ: New Zealand Commerce Commission announces plans for annual monitoring of milk prices in New Zealand - Dominion Post
- GLD: SPDR Gold Trust ETF daily holdings fall by 5.2 tons to 1,250.5 tons (lowest since 1,245.1 on Nov 11th)