Pages

Subscribe:

Ads 468x60px

Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Price. Show all posts

Monday, June 18, 2012

Although euro offers trade early in the worst case is the price of

June 18, 2012 05: 01 GMT
Produce results electoral Greek favourable reaction of risk Pro party rescue won election rest technical image guiding light during the meeting of the g-20 to inspire likely volatility fresh reports of official plan of the European Union to combat the crisis even if the eurozone is out of wood, the reaction of the initial election of Greek market was net positive as the worst scenarios of imminent Greek exit from the Euro are priced out. There is still much speculation and expectation that a Grexit is unavoidable, the new who won part of the rescue pro plan, is certainly a little reassuring to global risk appetite.
Technically, the highest move falls directly under our projections, where we have been call for the additional force in the Euro area to area 1.2800 - 1.3000 before the next summit less than medium-term will be finally sought prior to the resumption of underlying bear trend. Right now, the election results help catalyze this last technique to the momentum and attention CIMI will move today and tomorrow the G20 meeting, and reactions to the election of Greece and the impact on the Italian and Spanish bond spreads.
See also helps support a bit of risk were the UK Telegraph and New York times articles which report of an official EU plan on the horizon that will help it to address the many problems of the region. One of the main critical of eurozone crisis was a lack of leadership and staff is indeed capable of producing an official plan, it will be well received.
At this stage, it also appears that the decline of the Euro that we saw in the previous weeks below 1.2300 perhaps on a waitlist for a scenario of the worst Greece in the peripheral countries of the euro area. Thus, the rally that followed continues to be the price of this risk of disadvantage. What this means, is that we do are in no way advocating a sustainable risk on the business environment, and that once the price is the worst in the Greek elections released, we could very well see some risks renewed commerce. Today, we believe that it is always better to remain marginalized, at least at the start of the day.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
Euro_Well_Bid_in_Early_Trade_As_Worst_Case_is_Priced_Out_______body_Picture_5.png, Euro Well Bid in Early Trade As Worst Case is Priced OutTECHNICAL OUTLOOKEuro_Well_Bid_in_Early_Trade_As_Worst_Case_is_Priced_Out_______body_eur.png, Euro Well Bid in Early Trade As Worst Case is Priced OutEUR/USD: the market is in train to correct certain levels violently oversold after the breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly bearish, here we find yet place upside in the short term before a low high fee is requested. Locate the last positive weekly open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1.2800 - 1.3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Reverse must be well supported to 1.2400.
Euro_Well_Bid_in_Early_Trade_As_Worst_Case_is_Priced_Out_______body_usd.png, Euro Well Bid in Early Trade As Worst Case is Priced OutUSD/JPY: the recent setbacks have been rather intense, with the market to collapse by the SMA 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we argue that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by calendering until more. However, at this stage, we will have to see a break and closing back above 80.00 to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic Outlook.
Euro_Well_Bid_in_Early_Trade_As_Worst_Case_is_Priced_Out_______body_usd_1.png, Euro Well Bid in Early Trade As Worst Case is Priced Out
GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI seem inclined backwards to allow necessary short-term a corrective rebound after the setback down just shy of 2012 January low. Look for additional benefits to 1.5800 - 1.6000 from which an up, down, more significant is sought before bearish resumption.
USD/CHF: while we retain a more optimistic perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the coming weeks, short term risks are since more than a corrective retreat to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see the risks of weakness in the next sessions to 0.9200 - 0.9300 area before market seeks to reaffirm its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

Thursday, June 7, 2012

Euro Finds Renewed Bids goal Price Action Still Classified as Corrective

AppId is over the quota
AppId is over the quota
Risk correlated assets finding renewed bids German plans to strengthen Spanish banks inspire confidence ECB Draghi says the central bank is ready to act if necessary EUR/USD next key resistance comes in by 1.2625 Bank of England rate decision due later today Risk correlated assets have been very well bid over the past few sessions, with currencies and equities reversing sharply as market participants are able to let go of the worst of their fears for the time being. The doom and gloom sentiment that had taken hold in the previous week has faded and investors are once again warming up to the idea that the Eurozone may be able to escape the current crisis and avoid breakup. News that Germany is drafting plans to strengthen the Spanish banks without expecting further reforms or any formal aid deal has been seen as a huge positive and this has been once of the primary drivers of this latest risk-on trade.

Although the European Central Bank left policy on hold as was expected, comments from ECB President Draghi that the central bank is willing to act if necessary have also been helping to bolster sentiment. The Euro now eyes a retest and break of the previous weekly high by 1.2625, while the Yen has also been very well offered on the liquidation of safe haven plays. Still, at the end of the day, this is a market that had been in desperate need of technical correction following some intense risk-off moves, and at this point, we would attribute the recent price action more to the technicals than fundamentals.

European leadership will really need to dig in and come up with some serious plans to resuscitate the region for there to be any hope of a sustained Euro recovery. Until then, the strategy should be to look to sell these currency rallies into additional strength. Looking ahead, the Bank of England is slated for a rate decision later today. While no policy change is expected, there is a good deal of speculation that the Bank of England will shift to a more dovish stance in light of the ongoing pressures in the global macro economy.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Euro_Finds_Renewed_Bids_But_Price_Action_Still_Classified_as_Corrective______body_Picture_5.png, Euro Finds Renewed Bids But Price Action Still Classified as Corrective TECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Finds_Renewed_Bids_But_Price_Action_Still_Classified_as_Corrective______body_eur.png, Euro Finds Renewed Bids But Price Action Still Classified as Corrective EUR/USD:The market is in the process of correcting from some violently oversold levels after breaking to yearly lows just under 1.2300. While our overall outlook remains grossly bearish, from here we still see room for short-term upside before a fresh lower top is sought out. Look for the latest daily close back above 1.2545 to open the door for acceleration into the 1.2800-1.3000 area, where fresh offers are likely to re-emerge.

Euro_Finds_Renewed_Bids_But_Price_Action_Still_Classified_as_Corrective______body_usd.png, Euro Finds Renewed Bids But Price Action Still Classified as Corrective USD/JPY:The latest setbacks have been rather intense, with the market collapsing through the 200-Day SMA before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we contend that the market should continue to break higher, with sights ultimately set on a retest and break of the 2012 highs by 84.20 further up. However, at this point, we will need to see a break and close back above 80.00 to officially alleviate downside pressures and reaffirm bullish outlook.

Euro_Finds_Renewed_Bids_But_Price_Action_Still_Classified_as_Corrective______body_gbp.png, Euro Finds Renewed Bids But Price Action Still Classified as Corrective GBP/USD: Daily studies are now well oversold and from here risks seem tilted to the upside to allow for a necessary short-term corrective bounce after setbacks stalled just shy of the 2012 lows from January. Look for the latest daily close back above 1.5440 to strengthen short-term bullish outlook, with acceleration projected into the 1.5600-1.5800 area where a fresh lower top will be sought out in favor of underlying bear trend resumption.

Euro_Finds_Renewed_Bids_But_Price_Action_Still_Classified_as_Corrective______body_usd_1.png, Euro Finds Renewed Bids But Price Action Still Classified as Corrective USD/CHF: While we retain a broader bullish outlook for this pair, with the market seen establishing back above parity over the coming weeks, shorter-term risks are for more of a corrective pullback to allow for the market to establish a fresh higher low. As such, we see risks for weakness over the coming sessions towards the 0.9300-0.9500 area before the market looks to reassert its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

--- Written by Joel Kruger, Technical Currency Strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, email jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @JoelKruger

To be added to Joel Kruger’s distribution list, send an email with subject line “Distribution List” to jskruger@dailyfx.com


View the original article here

Wednesday, May 9, 2012

>> Breakout Trades and the Power of Price Channels

Trading Instructor 10 May 2012 04:00 GMT When Price Channels (sometimes referred to as Donchian Channels) are placed on a chart, they identify the high and the low price at which the pair traded over a specified period of time. The Channels on the Daily chart below are set to 20 periods so they would represent the high and the low at which the pair traded over the previous 20 days.
As such, they can be used quite effectively to visually identify levels of Support and Resistance on a chart. The channels can be used by “breakout” traders to identify entry levels. This would occur when price “breaks” below support in a downtrend or above resistance in an uptrend.
When the breakout occurs, this can be taken as an entry signal as the potential exists for price to continue to move in that direction for a period of time.
Let’s take a look at the example below of Price Channels on a Daily chart…
Breakout_Trades_and_the_Power_of_Price_Channels_body_eurcad_dnc_5_9.png, Breakout Trades and the Power of Price ChannelsAs noted on the chart, the lower channel line represents support while the upper channel line represents resistance.
As with most every strategy, the first step is to determine the direction that we should trade the pair. In the case of the EURCAD pair we know we want to look for opportunities to short the pair for the following reasons: 1) Price Action is below the 200 SMA and is pulling away from it; 2) at the time of this writing the EUR is weaker than the CAD, and 3) price has been making successively lower highs on this Daily chart since the end of February.
Now that we have determined the direction to trade the pair, we can look to a lower time frame chart to “fine tune” our entry. For our purposes on this pair, I prefer the 1 hour chart as we may be close to an entry.
When moving down to an intra-day chart (anything below a Daily) we will change the indicator to 55 periods. We do this to slow down the indicator a bit as we have moved to a faster, lower time frame chart.
Breakout_Trades_and_the_Power_of_Price_Channels_body_dnc_5_9.png, Breakout Trades and the Power of Price ChannelsIf/when price breaks below the lower channel line at 1.2941 a trader could sell the pair. The stop would be placed above the upper channel line at 1.3041. As can be seen, the price channels have provided us with our “breakout” entry along with our stop placement.
To manage the trade as it progresses, a trader would manually trail the stop by keeping it just above the upper channel line. The trade would be closed when price action retraces to the point that it intersects the upper channel line and the stop.
Since Price/Donchian Channels are not an indicator that is built into the Marketscope charting package, instructions are needed to install them.

Tuesday, April 24, 2012

€€ Euro price Action confused; Signs of risk always negative but market supported

Very well made euro support above 1.3100 all signs point to more risk of trade but no real follow still the trade balance Switzerland shows the weakness of exports of finance public sector UK continue to highlight the weakness of the Spanish economy and the Italian solid auction while the Dutch auction disappoints USD/JPY back under pressure and looking at the EUR/CHF 80.00 test still very interesting cross to watch despite the price action poor despite a sweep of the fundamental concern which have been weighing on risk active correlation, on the whole, these markets were strangely well supported. A lot of lower eurozone PMIs, disorders policies for Sarkozy by France, the issues surrounding the status of the AAA rating Dutch and an ever weakening of Spanish debt situation, all contribute to a very unstable perspective euro zone should as a result of the theory to a more significant risk off the coast of the reaction that we have seen. Launch signs of slowdown in China, a weakness in emerging markets, and the latter more soft than expected Auatralian ICC, who sealed the agreement for a rate cut in May and the ability to remain supported markets becomes more confusing still.
Relative performance against the USD Tuesday (from 11: 30GMT)
CAD + 0.18 %
GBP + 0.12 %
EUR + 0.09 %
CHF + 0.08 %
NZD + 0.01 %
JPY - 0.01 %
AUD-0.23 %
However, we cannot ignore action award, and with the Euro being the key market for watching, inability to fall below 1.3100 Monday leaves us with a much more cautious. We will wait for a break extended 1.3200 or return 1.3000 for a more clear directional bias. Other key monitoring Tuesday markets include USD/JPY, with the pair of recovery levels sub-81, 00 after some BOJ comments that the Central Bank will continue to implement monetary easing and EUR/CHF, which continues to trade in a very tight range, but could be at risk for an escape, commitment of the SNB to defend strongly 1.2000 and the most recent data on tradewhich reaffirms the commitment of the SNB after exports took a big hit. Furthermore, Italian and Spanish bond auction results were solid, while the auction was less impressive in the Netherlands. In the future, the Fed will meet Wednesday and the market players could be contained on building more risk of the event.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_gns_Still_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; Signs Still Risk Negative But Market SupportedTECHNICAL OUTLOOK
Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_gns_Still_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_eur.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; Signs Still Risk Negative But Market SupportedEUR/USD: The last series of setbacks are at a standstill before of any multi-week 1.3000 key support and of here still cannot exclude the risk of additional consolidation over 1.3000, before in view of the resumed bearish. Upward closure of last Friday opens the door for additional gains in upcoming sessions, but ultimately, the gatherings to 1.3400 expected well capped. A break and back close daily under 1.3000 is now required to put pressure on the disadvantages and to accelerate downward for 2012 early to 1.2660 depressions.
Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_gns_Still_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_usd.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; Signs Still Risk Negative But Market SupportedUSD/JPY: The last withdrawal of 2012, senior UST is considered as corrective and it seems that the market has finally found a solid $ 80.00 support. The setbacks are stalled at the top of the daily and weekly Ichimoku clouds and we expect for the formation of a fresh medium term already low somewhere around 80.00, before the next major to the extension back to and possibly through 84.20. Overall, this is a market that underwent a major structural change in the last months and we see the pair in the early stages of a long-term up-trend. Ultimately, only a narrow back under 78.00 weekly deny. Dips to 80.00 should therefore be used as great purchase.
Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_gns_Still_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_gbp.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; Signs Still Risk Negative But Market SupportedGBP/USD: The recent break back above 1.6000 opens now the door costs upside to the peak of October 2011 at 1.6165. However, additional gains beyond 1.6165 should be difficult to get, and once more see us risks for a bearish reversal for renewed weakness back to support key by 1.5800. A break and closing below 1.5800 will accelerate and decreases. Ultimately, only a weekly closing above 1.6165 would deny underlying bearish bias.
Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_gns_Still_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_usd_1.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; Signs Still Risk Negative But Market SupportedUSD/CHF: Our constructive prospects for base remains well intact, with the latest setback very well taken in charge by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It seems now that the market could be looking to carve a bass like fresh and we will monitor for additional upside to upper range recently 0.9335 on the next sessions. Over 0.9335 should accelerate earnings to the heights of 2012 by 0.9600 still in place. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 delays and gives reason to pause.

Euro Price Action Confounds. All Signs Risk Negative purpose Market Supported

Do not have a FXCM account?

Or

Do not have a FXCM account?

Or

Follow us

By Joel Kruger, technical strategist April 24, 2012 05: 44 GMT very well taken Euro support above 1.3100 all signs point to more risk of trade but no real still follow USD/JPY back under pressure and looking at the EUR/CHF 80.00 test still very interesting cross to watch despite the action prices poor despite a sweep of the fundamental concern which have been weighing on correlated risk assetsoverall, these markets have been strangely well supported. A lot of lower eurozone PMIs, disorders policies for Sarkozy by France, the issues surrounding the status of the AAA rating Dutch and an ever weakening of Spanish debt situation, all contribute to a very unstable perspective euro zone should as a result of the theory to a more significant risk off the coast of the reaction that we have seen. Launch signs of slowdown in China, a weakness in emerging markets, and the latter more soft than expected Auatralian ICC, who sealed the agreement for a rate cut in May and the ability to remain supported markets becomes more confusing still.

However, we cannot ignore action award, and with the Euro being the key market for watching, inability to fall below 1.3100 Monday leaves us with a much more cautious. We will wait for a break extended 1.3200 or return 1.3000 for a more clear directional bias. Other markets key to monitor Tuesday include USD/JPY, with the pair even when retreating and potentially taking a retest to support key 80.00 and EUR/CHF, which continues to trade in a very tight range, but which may be at risk for a commitment of the SNB to vigorously defend 1.2000 workshops. In the future, the Fed will meet Wednesday and the market players could be contained on building more risk of the event.

ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_All_Signs_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_Picture_5.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; All Signs Risk Negative But Market SupportedTECHNICAL OUTLOOK

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_All_Signs_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_eur.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; All Signs Risk Negative But Market SupportedEUR/USD: The last series of setbacks are at a standstill before of any multi-week 1.3000 key support and of here still cannot exclude the risk of additional consolidation over 1.3000, before in view of the resumed bearish. Upward closure of last Friday opens the door for additional gains in upcoming sessions, but ultimately, the gatherings to 1.3400 expected well capped. A break and back close daily under 1.3000 is now required to put pressure on the disadvantages and to accelerate downward for 2012 early to 1.2660 depressions.

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_All_Signs_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_usd.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; All Signs Risk Negative But Market SupportedUSD/JPY: The last withdrawal of 2012, senior UST is considered as corrective and it seems that the market has finally found a solid $ 80.00 support. The setbacks are stalled at the top of the daily and weekly Ichimoku clouds and we expect for the formation of a fresh medium term already low somewhere around 80.00, before the next major to the extension back to and possibly through 84.20. Overall, this is a market that underwent a major structural change in the last months and we see the pair in the early stages of a long-term up-trend. Ultimately, only a narrow back under 78.00 weekly deny. Dips to 80.00 should therefore be used as great purchase.

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_All_Signs_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_gbp.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; All Signs Risk Negative But Market SupportedGBP/USD: The recent break back above 1.6000 opens now the door costs upside to the peak of October 2011 at 1.6165. However, additional gains beyond 1.6165 should be difficult to get, and once more see us risks for a bearish reversal for renewed weakness back to support key by 1.5800. A break and closing below 1.5800 will accelerate and decreases. Ultimately, only a weekly closing above 1.6165 would deny underlying bearish bias.

Euro_Price_Action_Confounds_All_Signs_Risk_Negative_But_Market_Supported_body_usd_1.png, Euro Price Action Confounds; All Signs Risk Negative But Market SupportedUSD/CHF: Our constructive prospects for base remains well intact, with the latest setback very well taken in charge by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It seems now that the market could be looking to carve a bass like fresh and we will monitor for additional upside to upper range recently 0.9335 on the next sessions. Over 0.9335 should accelerate earnings to the heights of 2012 by 0.9600 still in place. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 delays and gives reason to pause.

-Written by Joel Kruger, technical currency strategist

To contact Joel Kruger, E-mail jskruger@dailyfx.com. Follow me on Twitter @ JoelKruger

To be added to the list of distribution of Joel Kruger, send an email with the subject "Distribution list" line to jskruger@dailyfx.com

DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency.
Learn forex trading with a free practice account and FXCM maps.

April 24, 2012 05: 44 GMT


/ / SET the properties on the PAGE var sProperties = new Object(); sProperties.server = "2.6". sProperties.channel = ' basic: opening comment '; / / Pass the properties on the page to Omniture if (typeof sProperties! = "undefined") {for (var sProperty in sProperties) {s [sProperty] = sProperties [sProperty];}} var s = s_code .t (); If (s_code) document.write (s_code);

View the original article here

Friday, April 20, 2012

€ EURCAD: Trading Canada’s Consumer Price Report

Trading the News: Canada Consumer Price Index
What’s Expected:
Time of release: 04/20/2012 12:30 GMT, 8:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: EURCAD
Expected: 2.0%
Previous: 2.6%
DailyFX Forecast: 1.8% to 2.2%
Why Is This Event Important:
The headline reading for Canadian inflation is expected to fall back to 2.0% in March and a soft consumer price report could drag on the loonie as it dampens expectations for a rate hike. Indeed, the Bank of Canada scaled back its dovish tone for monetary policy as the economic recovery gathers pace, but we may see the central bank preserve its wait-and-see approach throughout 2012 on the back of easing price pressures.
Recent Economic Developments
The Upside
Business Outlook Future Sales (1Q)
Net Change in Employment (MAR)
The Downside
Manufacturing Sales (FED) (JAN)
As businesses sentiment improves, firms may pass on higher costs onto consumer amid the ongoing improvement in the labor market, and an above-forecast print may lead the EURCAD to give back the advance from earlier this week as market participants increase bets for higher borrowing costs. However, the slowdown in private sector consumption may encourage businesses to keep a lid on consumer prices and a dismal CPI report could trigger a sharp selloff in the loonie as market participants scale back bets for a rate hike. In turn, the short-term rebound in the EURCAD may gather pace over the next 24-hours of trading, and we may see the pair continue to retrace the decline from earlier this month as the pair appears to be carving a major bottom in 2012.
Potential Price Targets For The Release
EURCAD_Trading_Canadas_Consumer_Price_Report_body_04.png, EURCAD: Trading Canada’s Consumer Price Report
 A look at the encompassing structure sees the EURCAD continuing to consolidate into the apex of a wedge formation with the exchange rate now testing daily resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken from the September 19th and January 17th troughs at 1.3050. A breach above this level eyes daily resistance at the 50-day moving average at 1.3136 backed by the 38.2% extension at 1.3165. Note that RSI broke below trendline support dating back to January with oscillator now attempting break back above. We will reserve a new trendline support dating back to the March lows as our downside trigger which if compromised negates our medium-term bullish bias.
EURCAD_Trading_Canadas_Consumer_Price_Report_body_04_1.png, EURCAD: Trading Canada’s Consumer Price Report
 Our 30min scalp chart shows the EURCAD attempting to break above interim resistance at the 23.6% Fibonacci extension taken form the March 14th and April 5th troughs at 1.3050. Clear RSI bullish divergence suggests further topside moves are likely with subsequent targets eyed at 1.3080, the 38.2% extension at 1.3113 and 1.3140. Note that the 50% extension at 1.3165 coincides with the 38.2% extension taken on our daily chart and if breached offers further conviction on our directional bias. Interim support rests at 1.3005 backed by 1.2970 and 1.2945. A break below this level eyes the 2012-low at 1.2870 backed by the 2011 lows at 1.2770. Should the data prompt a bearish loonie response look to target topside levels with our bias weighted to the topside so long as the monthly low at 1.2933 is respected.
How To Trade This Event Risk
Forecasts for a slower rate of inflation casts a bearish outlook for the loonie, but an above-forecast print could pave the way for a long Canadian dollar trade as investors see the BoC gradually withdrawing monetary support. Therefore, if the CPI tops market expectations, we will need to see a red, five-minute candle following the report to establish a sell entry on two-lots of EURCAD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will place the initial stop at the nearby swing high or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will generate our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to breakeven once the first trade hits its target in order to lock-in our winnings.
However, as private sector consumption wanes, businesses may dampen prices in an effort to draw demands, and a soft inflation report could spark a selloff in the Canadian dollar as it curbs speculation for higher interest rates. As a result, if the headline reading falls back to 2.0% or lower, we will implement the same strategy for a long euro-loonie trade as the short position laid out above, just in reverse.
Impact that the Canada Consumer Price report has had on CAD during the last month
Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
February 2012 Canada Consumer Price Index
EURCAD_Trading_Canadas_Consumer_Price_Report_body_ScreenShot057.png, EURCAD: Trading Canada’s Consumer Price Report
 Consumer prices in Canada increased at an annualized pace of 2.6% after expanding 2.5% in January, while the core rate of inflation climbed 2.3% to mark the fastest pace of growth since July 2007. Indeed, the EURCAD tipped higher following the release as the headline reading fell short of market expectations, but the Canadian dollar regained its footing during the North American trade, with the pair ending the session at 1.3233.

Friday, April 6, 2012

$ Dollar American price Action to be taken with a Grain of salt in the Session of holiday


Technical Strategist 06 April 2012 05: 23 GMT Economic calendar very thin in holiday session. US NFPs key standout Euro expected to find solid bids towards the 1.3000 area Razor thin trade could prompt unwelcome choppiness SNB will be watching closely with EUR/CHF floor being challenged All is expected to be very quiet today with most markets closed for Good Friday, and many traders having already exited for the long weekend. The European calendar is extremely light with no meaningful economic data releases, while things could get a bit more interesting into North America with the US monthly employment report NFP. Still, with equity markets closed and razor thin conditions, any movement on the back of the jobs number will need to be taken with a grain of salt until normal market conditions resume next week. Markets are forecasting a healthy print just over 200 k, with no Exchange anticipated to the 8.3% unemployment rate. Any significant departure from the consensus estimate will likely make for some choppy trade on the thin conditions.
We would look for more USD bids with an as expected or better than expected showing, while a disappointing result could weigh a bit on the Greenback. Nevertheless, given the Fed's recent shift away from additional stimulus, it would probably take a really bad number to rock the boat and open a resurgence in broad based US Dollar weakness. Truthfully, even a bad number could be positive USD if markets take it as a global macro risk off sign and feel that more liquidation of risk correlated assets is warranted in favor of the safer buck. Technically, there is some solid internal support from February and March down by 1.3000 in EUR/USD, and the risks are for some form of a consolidation or bounce once this level is retested. Meanwhile, on the other side of the ocean, economic data has been less than impressive to say the least, and the ongoing struggles in both the Eurozone and UK economies do not support the notion of wanting to be long the Euro or Pound against the buck. Elsewhere, the Franc has started to find some relative bids, and the price action here has been most compelling with the EUR/CHF cross rate testing the highly publicized 1.2000 floor that the SNB has said they would defend aggressively. The risk liquidation theme that has taken hold of markets this week has not been a welcome development for the SNB (the risk off price action makes the Franc naturally attractive given its traditional attributes), and if the central bank is going to act, it might have to be very soon. Otherwise, a sustained break below 1.2000 would seriously undermine the SNB's credibility and open a rapid deterioration in the cross rate. At this point however it would be surprising to see such a scenario play out and we suspect that the SNB will be very ready to back up its talk with action.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR
US_Dollar_Price_Action_to_Be_Taken_with_Grain_of_Salt_in_Holiday_Session_body_Picture_5.png, US Dollar Price Action to Be Taken with Grain of Salt in Holiday Session
TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
US_Dollar_Price_Action_to_Be_Taken_with_Grain_of_Salt_in_Holiday_Session_body_eur.png, US Dollar Price Action to Be Taken with Grain of Salt in Holiday Session
EUR/USD: A break of some multi-session consolidation is significant in the short-term and could now open the door for deeper setbacks over the coming sessions. The latest break and close below some key short-term support at 1.3250 highlights this fact, and now exposes a fresh drop towards medium-term support by 1.3000 further down. Back above 1.3400 would be required to negate bearish outlook and put pressure back on topside. However, the market is well supported in the 1.3000 area and it will take a meaningful break below to convince us of continued bearish price action to challenge the 2012 lows in the 1. 2600's. 
US_Dollar_Price_Action_to_Be_Taken_with_Grain_of_Salt_in_Holiday_Session_body_usd.png, US Dollar Price Action to Be Taken with Grain of Salt in Holiday SessionUSD/JPY: Has been locked in some consolidation since the market broken to fresh 2012 highs beyond 84.00 with technical studies unwinding from overbought levels before consideration is to be given for the next major upside extension. The key levels to watch above and below come in at UST and 81.50 and a break on either end will be required for regional short term directional bias. However, given the bullish breakout in 2012, all signs point to a major structural shift which favors additional upside beyond UST and into the 85 00-90. 00 area further up. Ultimately, only back under 80.00 would give reason for concern.
US_Dollar_Price_Action_to_Be_Taken_with_Grain_of_Salt_in_Holiday_Session_body_gbp.png, US Dollar Price Action to Be Taken with Grain of Salt in Holiday Session
GBP/USD: Failure to establish any fresh momentum following the break above 1.6000, followed by an aggressive bearish reversal now suggests that the market could finally be looking to carve a top in favor of a more significant decline over the coming sessions. Look for a break and closed below next support at 1.5830 to reaffirm outlook, while back above 1.6065 would be required to negate.

US_Dollar_Price_Action_to_Be_Taken_with_Grain_of_Salt_in_Holiday_Session_body_usd_1.png, US Dollar Price Action to Be Taken with Grain of Salt in Holiday Session
  USD/CHF: Our core constructive outlook remains well intact with the latest setbacks very well supported by psychological barriers at 0.9000. It now looks as though the market could be looking to carve a fresh higher low, and we will be looking for additional upside back towards the recent range highs at 0.9335 over the coming sessions. Above 0.9335 should then accelerate gains towards the 2012 highs by 0.9600 further up. Ultimately, only back under 0.9000 delays and gives reason for pause.

Friday, March 9, 2012

The price of gold takes some traders by Surprise OpenBook

 Yesterday, the Chinese Government has revised its economic growth of 8.0%, with Wen Jiabo, the Chinese Premier, citing inflationary pressure and the concerns of global growth as the reason for the downward revision of forecasts of 7.5% in 2012. According to Wen, the Government intends to reduce its dependence on capital foreign and external spending and increase its efforts to increase consumer demand. With a decline of the Aussie Kiwi Dollars, gold fell below $1700 an ounce. On OpenBook, a sense of gold investors is strongly upward. A number of traders of gold of OpenBook caught flat by the news of China.One of those who won was OpenBook trader greggson5; This Trader had a return of 4.4% on an allocation of 77.7% of gold, in the six months, but several long positions opened just before the dip of gold are now in red and the 1735.00 target. But as the trader on his wall, are not all commerce will be a winner, and he appreciated these copiers that stick by him even.
Get the most from the drop in prices was OpenBook guru pipsfx, which identified an opportunity and bought gold that he dived to 1698.15 and later closed to 1703.85 19% return. Two positions of long open later are now in territory negative but only need a small gathering to make a profit. Javiviveloz guru of gold was at the top of the situation, closing four short positions, as fall began, ultimately capture average 8% return. This Guru has since added to its existing long positions expected that uptrend will resume.
As analysts stressed repeatedly and repeatedly, not only are the underlying fundamental principles that support the price of gold still in play, but the recent drop in price $100 a physical gold even more attractive to speculators. And despite the news of China yesterday, the country is still on track to become the largest purchaser of the world by the end of the year.

Friday, February 17, 2012

OpenBook's Oil Traders Take Advantage of Price Dip


The world’s major economic worry, namely the ongoing Greek debt saga, is having a detrimental effect on oil prices. On the OpenBook, oil traders are primarily bullish expecting that the decline will be short-lived. One OpenBook trader who is taking advantage of the dip in oil prices is trader ugoguy who earlier opened a short position which is already showing a profit. This trader is on track to post a 5.7% return for the week and 20.8% for the quarter; oil comprises a significant portion of this trader’s portfolio, with a 44.7% allocation over the last three months which has returned 3.7%. Notably, in reviewing this trader’s portfolio a miniscule allocation of 0.3% over the same three month period to the oil-linked Canadian Dollar has given this trader a 133% return on the USD/CAD pair.


Trader paolo66mbce is also benefiting from the drop in oil prices, scalping more than half a dozen short positions over the past few hours, with gains ranging from as little as 0.43% to 10.0%. Nearly 16% of this trader’s portfolio allocation is to oil which has returned 6.4%.


Earlier today, WTI oil prices were trading lower at $101.26 a barrel, but analysts point out that the drop could have been worse. Two specific things provided a bit of a buffer and tempered the fall; the first was renewed worries about a supply chain disruption after Iran yesterday touted its progress on their nuclear capabilities, and second was the release of the EIA’s report of an unexpected decrease in stockpiles.


One market analyst pointed out that Middle East tensions will always support oil prices in spite of global growth concerns, and yesterday those tensions were ratcheted up when the Iranian president held a press conference showcasing his scientists’ progress on the nuclear front. In the U.S., the EIA reported that oil stockpiles fell by 171,000 barrels for the week ended February 10th which was well off the forecast of a 1.5 million barrel rise.