Objectives of crude oil higher as Gold retreats after Greek election

Discussion points
Crude oil, copper higher as Greek target Vote Stokes risk appetite or pensions as Greek eurozone exit threat disappears on the growth of the election of crude oil and copper prices are accelerating in a general improvement in risk appetite after a general election in Greece the weekend produced enough votes for the main pro-bailout Pasok and new democracy parties form a coalition Government. The result downgraded fears of imminent Greek exit from the euro area, stimulate appetite and risk weighing on refuge go - to currencies. Investors fear that a disorderly ejection from the country of the currency bloc may if Syriza – a party pushing back on the terms of bailout from the EU and the IMF – emerge victorious.Gold is low that the application of dents of result for the metal as a safe haven store. Money is little changed.
S & P 500 futures index point, suggesting mood on the risk will likely see at least in the immediate future. If the week Spanish bank bailout last be repeated however, which may be mere hours. The election effectively returns on the markets for the status quo in place six weeks before the end of the first attempt to installation of a new Government without result. Now as at the time, the evolution of the euro-zone debt crisis seems likely to act as a slow simmer, not a sudden rupture triggered by an event. The negative consequences of a collapse of the eurozone for global economic growth have not become less important, the recent recovery of casting in risky assets as corrective in the context of a larger downward yet dynamic in game.
An empty folder of European economic data suggests a sale auction of French binding as the solitary piece of risk of the event scheduled on the calendar. Paris sell 8.70 billion € in good 12 months to mature. Traders will look to submission to cover reading and performance mean to evaluate the euro area sovereign risk fears. While the tenor short debt on offer would generally be a poor response from price action, the proximity of the Greek election could amplify the impact of the results, traders can be regarded as a referendum on the ability of the vote in a significant relief. Comment sideline of the g-20 meeting if in the Mexico is also sought guidance.
Crude oil WTI (near NY): $84.03 / / + 0.12 / / + 0.14%
The prices are more border after putting in a model of candlestick line upward Piercing above 81.07, 23.6% Fibonacci expansion support. The bulls are now designed to challenge on June 7 in figure 87.00. 14.6% Fib to 83.30 has been redesigned as a short-term support.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Spot Gold (near NY): $1627.10 / / + 3.38 / / + 0.21%
Prices are stalling after having taken a set of trend fall line of early March. Resistance in the short term remains 1637.35, the tracing of 76.4%Fibonacci, with a break that exposing may 1 to 1671.49. 61.8% Fib to 1616.23 has been redesigned as a short-term support.
Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
Cash (near NY): $28.69 / / + 0.05 / / + 0.17%
Prices continue to go back to graphic training of flag, a bearish continuation facility. Confirmation is required on a daily close below the model - now unit - which would expose 27.06 as the next objective of disadvantage. The first major resistance layer aligned to 29.71.
Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0
COMEX E-Mini Copper (near NY): $3.384 / / + 0.030 / / + 0.89%
Prices have resistance 3.384, the tracing of Fibonacci 23.6%, with the bulls now to challenge the 38.2% Fib to 3.474. The 23.6%retracement has been redesigned as a short-term support.

Daily chart - created with FXCM Marketscope 2.0

Euro Retreats choice of the gaps in leadership positions open to buy

June 18, 2012 11: 16 GMT
Produce results electoral Greek stable reaction risk Pro rescue party wins election rest technical image guiding light during the meeting of the g-20 to inspire likely fresh volatility, official reports EU plan to counter the Spanish crisis gives pushed through the key barrier even if the eurozone is out the wood, the reaction of the initial election of Greek market was net positive to neutral as the worst scenarios of imminent Greek exit from the Euro prices are. There is still much speculation and expectation that a Grexit is unavoidable, the new who won part of the rescue pro plan, is certainly a little reassuring to global risk appetite.
Technically, the last major effort in the Euro falls directly under our projections, which were appointed to the additional force to the area from 1.2800 to 1.3000 before the summit before the deadline midterm will be required prior to resumption of the downward trend in the underlying. At that time, the election results help catalyze this technique to the dynamic and the emphasis will be CIMI today and tomorrow at the G-20, and reactions to the election of Greece and the impact bond spreads on Italian and Spanish. The euro has shot most of heights on Monday, but also attributed the price action for filling the open pit mine ....
Relative performance against the USD Monday (to the 11:10GMT)
NZD + 0.41 %
AUD + 0.33 %
EUR-0,09 %
CHF 0.12 %
CAD - 0.30 %
GBP - 0.43 %
JPY - 0.44 %
See also helps support a bit of risk were the UK Telegraph and New York times articles which report of an official EU plan on the horizon that will help it to address the many problems of the region. One of the main critical of eurozone crisis was a lack of leadership and staff is indeed capable of producing an official plan, it will be well received.
At this stage, it seems that the decline of the Euro that we saw in the previous weeks below 1.2300 perhaps on a waitlist for a scenario of the worst Greece in the peripheral countries of the euro area. Thus, the rally that followed continues to be the price of this risk of disadvantage. What this means, is that we do are in no way advocating a sustainable risk on the business environment, and that once the price is the worst in the Greek elections released, we could very well see some risks renewed commerce. Today, we believe that it is always better to remain marginalized, at least at the start of the day. We have already given some wild intraday swings, and Spanish yields breaking above 7%, it is really preferable to remain on the sidelines.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD: The market is in train to correct certain levels violently oversold after the breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly bearish, here we find yet place upside in the short term before a low high fee is requested. Locate the last positive weekly open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1.2800 - 1.3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Reverse must be well supported to 1.2400.

USD/JPY: The recent setbacks have been rather intense, with the market to collapse by the SMA 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we argue that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by calendering until more. However, at this stage, we will have to see a break and closing back above 80.00 to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic Outlook.
GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI seem inclined backwards to allow necessary short-term a corrective rebound after the setback down just shy of 2012 January low. Look for additional benefits to 1.5800 - 1.6000 from which an up, down, more significant is sought before bearish resumption.

USD/CHF: while we retain a more optimistic perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the coming weeks, short term risks are since more than a corrective retreat to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see the risks of weakness in the next sessions to 0.9200 - 0.9300 area before market seeks to reaffirm its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

Pound expected Greek after election for the Direction signals

Fundamental forecasts for the pound sterling: neutral

Financial markets have turned their attention to the outcome of the Greek elections of the weekend, and the pound sterling is no exception. A swelling of the correlation between GBPUSD and the MSCI World Stock Index--a proxy for trends in sense of risk of the whole of the market - is the UK currency squarely at the heart of the volatility as Greek voters to choose between a Government which would respect the commitments of Athens, according to the terms of bailout of the EU and the IMF and the other who abandon them. The last course of action would likely pave the way for the Greece to get out of the euro zone.

Opinion polls place the pro-bailout of the new democracy (ND) party and its main antagonist Syriza in dead heat before the election, suggesting that he is unlikely to win a majority of Director of each side. This means that the most likely result is the emergence of a kind of coalition. In this spirit, a positive feeling and thus GBP-support result would see ND and the public left Pasok party enough votes to form a United front of pro-bailout, fears of a Greek departure of the currency bloc disorder. Any post-election result that fails on this front rises to both Sterling and risk appetite.

While the result of the election of Greek will set the tone for the coming week, it is unlikely to establish a firm trend as such. Finance Ministers of the euro area are rumoured plans a teleconference immediately following the result of the election to suppress any major upheaval in the financial markets, if a jurisdiction. A more formal meeting of the Eurogroup is scheduled for the end of the week in the Luxembourg. Separately, the leaders of the g-20 are due to a peak of two days just after the results of the vote, with the debt crisis the euro almost certainly high on the agenda. All this activity makes the overwhelming probability of high volatility of sentiment trends and Sterling by extension, with a directional bias should emerge that after all the dust firmly falls concrete.

The economic calendar is apparently packaged with the title of press. Minutes of the meeting of the Bank of England from June political developing that may s ICC, of employment and retail sales reports are all due to crossing of the son. Implications for the action of the prices seem a little limited, however given their limited monetary policy after impact than the Central Bank Governor Mervyn King them preempted by the announcement of a new credit-loan program intended to ready UK last weekend. The said extent guaranteed term Repo (ECTR) will provide banks at least 5 billion pounds sterling per month for a period of at least six months and spread a minimum of 25 bps. Although fully operational details are a little murky, Setup is likely to prove GBP-negative over time, if it is acquired with the new creation of liquidity similar to the trigger.

-EAST

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$$Dollar, Yen Aim Higher as Markets Turn Defensive Before Greek Election

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By Ilya Spivak, Currency Strategist 13 June 2012 10:05 GMT Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)
(04 Jun 2012 – 08 Jun 2012)

Major Currencies vs. US Dollar (% change)

(04 Jun 2012 – 08 Jun 2012)

Talking Points
US Dollar, Yen Aim Higher as Euro Crisis Jitters Return Before Greek Election Euro, Pound to Follow Bund and Gilt Yields Lower as Haven Flows Boost Bonds Australian, Canadian Dollars Continue to Find Direction in Stock Performance New Zealand Dollar May Underperform as RBNZ Ramps Up Dovish Rhetoric The US Dollar fell against most of the majors as expected amid a recovery in assets linked to risk appetite last week. Risk aversion looks likely to make a come-back this time around however as investors turn defensive ahead of the weekend’s general election in Greece. The outcome has scope to spark large-scale dislocation across financial markets in the event that another inconclusive outcome or an outright win by the anti-bailout Syriza party threatens to push Greece out of the Eurozone. With that in mind, traders are likely to pare exposure to risky assets ahead of the poll.
On the economic data front, the critical unknown in the global economic growth outlook is the degree to which a still choppy North American recovery can offset headwinds from weakness in Europe and Asia. With that in mind, the spotlight is once again on the US calendar. Expectations call for Retail Sales to drop for the first time in 11 months in May while the University of Michigan gauge of consumer confidence ticks lower and New York State manufacturing activity slows in June. Industrial Production is likewise forecast to decelerate. Taken against a backdrop of fading QE3 hopes after last week’s disappointing testimony from the Fed’s Ben Bernanke, this stands to compound pressure on risk-geared assets as global output expectations darken.
For the Euro, a firm correlation with German bond yields (see chart) points to the primacy of debt crisis concerns in shaping price action. Renewed sovereign stress in the Eurozone periphery is likely to boost haven demand for German government debt, pushing yields and the single currency lower. Separately, Eurozone Industrial Production figures are expected to show the largest drop in seven months in April while the final revision of May’s CPI reading confirms inflation at the slowest in 15 months. This may begin to fuel ECB easing expectations as regional growth continues to sour, amplifying downward pressure on yields and the Euro alike.
The British Pound is showing relatively firm correlations with UK bond yields and the MSCI World Stock Index, hinting the focus here is likewise the Eurozone debt fiasco and thereby the Greek election outcome. The result will almost certainly prove formative for risk appetite trends (and thereby global stock prices), while the link to UK bond yields reflects the emergence of Gilts as a regional haven likely to rise in the event of an adverse outcome, mirroring the dynamic between the Euro and the return on German debt described above.
Similarly, the emerging balance between the relationship of the Japanese Yen to stock prices and US Treasuries burnishes the currency’s haven properties and puts Greece-linked worries front and center. The possibility of intervention remains an ever-present wild card. If risk aversion metastasizes into outright panic and USDJPY volatility spikes dramatically, policymakers may step in anew. Japan seemed to have far greater success with quiet management of the exchange rate through late 2011 than with previous big-splash intervention efforts, but one does not necessarily dismiss the other if a particularly sharp plunge takes the pair back toward the 76.00 figure. The Bank of Japan may also unveil additional stimulus efforts, but these are unlikely to prove particularly market-moving in the near term as Eurozone considerations dominate.
The Australian, Canadian and New Zealand Dollars continue to take their cues from stock prices and so look likely to remain direct reflections of broad-based sentiment trends. The RBNZ interest rate decision is expected to see rates on hold at 2.50 percent but weakness in economic data flow since the last policy meeting hints Governor Alan Bollard is likely to ramp up dovish rhetoric. This stands to weigh on the Kiwi Dollar as rate cut expectations build, compounding headwinds from returning risk aversion, and may see NZD underperform its commodity bloc counterparts.
EURO

Source: Bloomberg
BRITISH POUND

Source: Bloomberg
JAPANESE YEN

Source: Bloomberg
CANADIAN DOLLAR

Source: Bloomberg
AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Source: Bloomberg
NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR
Source: Bloomberg

::: French Election Stokes Investors ’ Fears for Future Europe’s

While French president Nicolas Sarkozy managed to eke out one of the top two spots in the first round of presidential voting, a second term is far from assured. Yesterday, French citizens took to the polls in the first round of presidential voting, and while the incumbent finished up among the top three, he was bookended by Socialist candidate Francois Hollande and far-right candidate Marine Le Pen; with the counting over, Hollande had received 28.6% of the total vote, Sarkozy 27.1%, and Le Pen a surprising 18.0%.
It is certainly a high probability that any French president would find his or her neck on the proverbial chopping block given the current economic situation in the Eurozone, in general and France, in particular. As is the case in many other Eurozone states, the people are angered over the lack of growth prospects, high unemployment and implementation of austerity measures to reduce sovereign debt. In the case of France, they are also frustrated, like their German counterparts, with having to bear the burden of driving the Eurozone’s collective economy.
Markets know where President Sarkozy stands as regards France’s economic future, though he has recently made some concessions to hopefully draw in Le Pen’s supporters. Meanwhile, candidate Hollande said it would be his job as president to “put Europe back on the path of growth and employment.” Further, he said that as president he would seek to renegotiate the E.U. treaty on fiscal discipline and monitoring which was strong-armed through the E.U. Parliament by both Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel and which remains a bone of contention among several of the E.U. member states.
Hollande’s declaration of that intent is giving markets cause for concern, as it would open the door for any or all of the other E.U. members, some of which had clearly been less than enamored by the Treaty, to withdraw their support. Markets are also keenly aware that, irrespective of the outcome and despite the oppositions’ disavowal, the winner will have little choice but to continue on with the unpopular austerity measures.
eToro’s Senior Analyst, Lior Alkalay, had this to say, “the fear among investors – which are also the Eurozone’s creditors – is simple and justifiable; the French election is just the latest event in an overall wave of socialism which will flood Europe and push austerity into the unknown.”
Indeed, given the unknown, equity markets had opened markedly lower in the first day of trading following French presidential voting. France’s CAC-40 had earlier been the loss leader among the Eurozone’s three major indices, and is currently down by 45.92 points, or 1.44%. By a ratio of 2 to 1, sentiment on OpenBook is bullish.
The EUR/USD pair is also lower at 1.3150, and sentiment appears to be nearly evenly split between bulls and bears on OpenBook. OpenBook guru pyruss has been placing sell orders over the past several hours, even as he’s had two short positions close with profits of 3.4% and 2.3% each. Several long positions opened earlier today are also nearing break-even as of this writing. This guru has allocated more than 86% of his portfolio to the EUR/USD pair which has provided a gain of 0.9% over the past six months to him and his 589 copiers. This guru’s recorded P&L for the week stands at 1.1%, for the month at 3.2%, quarter at 8.8% and six months at 41.8%. One of OpenBook’s most active and prolific traders, pyruss has executed 1323 trades over the past six months, with 99.7% of them resulting in a profit.
OpenBook trader berufstouri, who has two followers, closed a short position with a 10% gain earlier, which followed another that was copied from fellow German and OpenBook guru babczyk. This trader allocates 70% of his portfolio to the EUR/USD, which has provided a return of 5.6% over the past month. Overall, this trader’s P&L in the same period is 15.3% and improves to 33.3% for the quarter.
To analysts, the French President’s absence from the top spot sends a clear and loud signal that France’s citizens are looking for anyone other than Sarkozy to be country’s champion. What is next is a May 6th run-off of the top two candidates to determine the next French president. None of the other candidates have yet thrown their support to either of the front-runners, so the real question is how the constituents who did not support either will now cast their vote.

€€ Euro Ready to Break if French Election, Spanish Crisis Weigh

Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Neutral
Over the past week, the euro has waded through event risk that posed serious threat to the currency's stability without significant damage. Nevertheless, traders shouldn't let their guard down or give up on their aspirations for a meaningful push to trend - as all traders should want for activity. Despite a boost in the IMF's coffers announced at the G-20 meeting this past week, the Euro-area's financial trouble is still a pressing issue. Most notable is the wobble for Spain as its drive for austerity is leveraging the pain of recession that the economy was already steeped in. But that isn't the only concern moving forward.
Given the general restraint on the capital and FX markets for trend generation, regular event risk will be limited to muffled volatility. To truly shift the euro's bearing and move the needle on momentum via inherent fundamentals, we need something that taps into the deeper uncertainties related to the currency's health. This weekend's French election fits the bill for influence and interpretation. Heading into the Sunday vote, Socialist Party head Holland is leading incumbent President Sarkozy. That said, neither is expected to garner the 50 percent of the vote needed to win, thereby forcing a second round on May 6. Why does this matter? France is the second largest member of the EZ and has played a significant role in the management of the debt crisis. It is expected that Holland would be decidedly less Euro-friendly that Sarkozy. Further, if it goes to a second vote, the consolidation of parties would bend Holland even further away from the Euro and the current path of regional support to win the support of fellow candidates. This will likely build pressure and set precedence for May 6.
After the headlines for France recede (perhaps even before), the market will likely return to its assessment of the regional financial crisis. This past week, we weathered two rounds of Spanish bond auctions with limited fanfare. It seems the market needs to see a near failure or failure (falling short of the minimum) to deem the seriously negative event for the region's financial situation (as with the April 4 dirty). In reality, the application (a sign of confidence) yields have surged. More importantly, we have seen not only Spain's 10 - year government bond yield rise on the open market, but Italy's benchmark is climbing as well. Once again, it is the 7 percent-mark that the market expects to force a bailout (as it did with Greece, Ireland and Portugal), but the ECB would likely put up a fight before we get there.
We should also account for the impact that the recent news that the IMF had raised an additional $430 billion in fire power. While Managing Director Lagarde (amongst others) has expressly stated that capital will not be earmarked for any single country/region; in practice, the Euro-area seems most immediately in need. That said, round after round of stimulus in the past has failed to impress participating market and revive their bullish ambitions for the euro.
From a data perspective, the docket carries a few notable. In addition to the French polling results, newswire mavens will also take in the advanced April PMI figures (good proxies for GDP) and the 2011 Euro Zone government debt-to-GDP ratio. After that, Thursday will hold regional sentiment figures and German ICC stats. For serious data, I'm waiting for the Spanish 1 Q GDP (due early on April 30).
Data and regional issues can't aren't the only concern though. It is important to also keep a close eye on the underlying level of risk sentiment. If fear starts to seep in for the global markets, the most troubled regions will be exposed. and the Euro is at the top of that list. -JK