Dollar suffers a fall most since October, where from here?

Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop Since October, Where to From Here? Euro: Are We Set for an Immediate Reversal Monday? Australian Dollar Traders Prepare for a Halt in RBA Cuts British Pound: Will the BoE Vote Finally Tip to More Bond Purchases? Canadian Dollar Climbs with Risk, Prepare for Employment Data Japanese Yen Reportedly Showing its Influence as a Reserve Gold Rallies as EU Speaks Stimulus, Looking for Action from ECB Dollar Suffers Biggest Drop Since October, Where to From Here?
Last week was a wild ride for the US dollar, but the situation will only grow more complicated for the benchmark going forward. For most of this past week, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar index was carving out a tedious range with no definable direction. That changed suddenly early Friday morning after the EU Summit statement tapped into the Pavlovian response to any mention of mass stimulus that capital and FX traders are implicitly always expecting. As is usually the case with flashing headline with far-reaching implications, the speculative masses reacted first and saved questions about the details and scope of the development for later. Having suffered its biggest, single-day loss since October 27, the dollar is now in a good position to be reviewed. As discussed yesterday, European officials mentioned an agenda that could significantly curb financial stress for the world’s greatest source of uncertainty – if investors believe in it. Considering the dollar is a currency that depends on its acute safe haven status and thereby stressed risk trends, where we go from here depends on how much good will the EU has bought itself.
We will pick apart the actual Euro-region programs viability in the Euro section below, but it is important to understand the stake the dollar has in the situation. If fear that a financial storm is spreading across the globe retreats, the most direct leverage the currency has will disengage. If we look at the bigger picture, global yields are fading into record lows, growth is stalling and capital has been drained from the system. This is itself the foundation of a bearish market. However, speculation plays a critical role in transitional market swings. In other words, if traders are looking for a reason to rally; they will use the ambiguous support to justify the move. Moreover, judgment will not center on this past week’s developments. Building or breaking confidence further requires additional catalysts to flesh out a trend. On our docket next week: we pick up the EU debate on Monday, Wednesday faces a liquidity lull for the Independence Day holiday; the ECB meets Thursday; and Friday brings NFPs.
Euro: Are We Set for an Immediate Reversal Monday?
In the past months and years, we have seen a number of European financial programs and facilities that at first seemed impressive but ultimately failed to pass muster. However, in a world were acting late can mean missing out on a trade, there is often a quick move on the basis of headlines at the sacrifice of the details. Is that the case for the Euro currently, having posted sizable rallies against safe haven counterparts (the yen and dollar) without the proper merit to sustain its advance? Given the scope of the recommended programs from the EU Summit and the level of contention at the policy official level for pushing them through, this is the kind of news that can overwhelm the senses of even a well-prepared market of skeptics.
Breaking down the Summit promises to its core components, we start to see the hallmark of the traditional ‘buy time’ effort the Euro officials have become known for. Overlooking the EIB contribution and Growth Pact as long-term efforts that don’t answer immediate financial concerns, we move right into the recapitalization and bailout territory. Dropping seniority status on Spanish bailout funds and tapping the EFSF is promising, but details on how much they receive are still fuzzy. The big ticket item of ESM buying sovereign bonds requires a ‘Memorandum of Understanding’ and carries unspecified conditions. Then there is the ESM direct bank funding that requires a common bank supervisor, which should be established sometime before the end of the year. Perhaps the lead into the ECB decision can keep hopes up. Rate cuts won’t help.
Australian Dollar Traders Prepare for a Halt in RBA Cuts
Over the past two RBA rate decisions, the central bank has carved 75 basis points off of its overnight cash rate (OCR). From October, the benchmark rate is down 125bps and is now at its lowest level since November 2009. Aggressive rate cuts are the product of a slowing economy and financial strain. That means risk aversion encourages easing which leverages the negative pressure on the investment-favored Aussie dollar. We’ve already seen a rebound from overstretched risk trends and rate expectations. Is there enough relief there for an RBA hold?
British Pound: Will the BoE Vote Finally Tip to More Bond Purchases?
According to the minutes of the last BoE rate decision, the policy group barely missed the majority needed to increase its bond purchases. Warnings that a Euro Zone crisis is spilling over to the UK and pressure from politicians to supplement austerity measures with central bank austerity have elevated the pressure for policy easing. Even if asset purchases rise 50 billion sterling as expected, it isn’t clear what impact it would have. For the economy, it is a pittance compared to global pressures; but for the currency it raises the stimulus competition.
Canadian Dollar Climbs with Risk, Prepare for Employment Data
USDCAD plunged Friday, but was there a representation of the Canadian dollar’s own influence in this move? Certainly the loonie extended its move after the release of a better-than-expected April GDP reading; but then again, EURUSD was offer a more aggressive anti-dollar push. Next week, we will have the Canadian jobs data for a more directed blast. That said, the NFPs could easily overwhelm the local data.
Japanese Yen Reportedly Showing its Influence as a Reserve
We know that the Japanese yen is a preferred safe haven for the FX market, but the evidence isn’t always immediately evident. A report from the BoJ showed that foreign holdings of yen assets jumped to a record (records began in 2002) 44 trillion yen. That said, another report from the IMF showed that the yen’s share of global reserves rose in the first quarter to 3.55 percent from 3.53 percent. For comparison, the dollar accounts for 62.2 percent while the euro is 25 percent. Safe haven seems a disputable term.
Gold Rallies as EU Speaks Stimulus, Looking for Action from ECB
With the dollar suffering its largest hit in 8 months and the global market murmuring about European stimulus, gold was bound to find lift Friday. That said, when it comes to this alternative to currencies and fiat debt, we need an active booster to carry the market higher. Yet, there was no immediate implementation from the EU Summit. Will the ECB supplement with an LTRO? Unlikely. If this is the case, gold’s rally may fall apart.
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ECONOMIC DATA
Next 24 Hours
Hometrack Housing Survey (MoM) (JUN)
Housing princes less during the month of June.
Hometrack Housing Survey (YoY) (JUN)
AiG Performance of Manufacturing Index (JUN)
Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (2Q)
Manufacturing activity outlook expected to print third consecutive quarterly contraction.
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Index (2Q)
Tankan Large Manufacturers Outlook (2Q)
Tankan Non-Manufacturing Outlook (2Q)
Tankan Large All Industry Capex (2Q)
TD Securities Inflation (MoM) (JUN)
A last minute inflation read ahead of the RBA.
TD Securities Inflation (YoY) (JUN)
HSBC Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN)
The mark will have already been made with Sunday’s official read.
RBA Commodity Price Index (JUN)
Notable for gauging the resilience of the balance of trade in Australia among week global economy outlook.
RBA Commodity Index SDR (YoY) (JUN)
Retail Sales (Real) (YoY) (MAY)
May reading was weakest since Sep ‘11.
SVME-Purchasing Managers Index (JUN)
Will provide a reading of how the euro-Zone crisis is affecting the manufacturing sector.
Italian Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN)
French Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F)
German Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F)
Euro-Zone Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN F)
Italian Unemployment Rate s.a. (MAY P)
Hasn’t ticked lower since Feb ’11.
Purchasing Manager Index Manufacturing (JUN)
An improvement from the May 2009 low would be welcome, but still point to contraction.
Euro-Zone Unemployment Rate (MAY)
Unemployment rose in most major EU countries in May.
Is the US falling victim to a global slowdown?
Construction Spending (MoM) (MAY)
Strong new home sales for May.
Italian Budget Balance (euros) (JUN)
Historically higher deficits in 2H of year.
Italian Budget Balance (euros) (YTD) (JUN)
BoJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi To Attend Panel Discussion
ECB's Joerg Asmussen Speaks on Euro Economy
ECB's Ewald Nowotny Speaks on Euro Economy
Fed's John Williams Speaks on Monetary Policy
SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS
To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal
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CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT
INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

Aussie, Euro Have Best Days Since November on Summit Results

Fundamental headlines
-Facilitated EU leaders rules of the Spain debt crisis - Bloomberg
-Euro rises after the EU abandons leaders Spain loan seniority - Bloomberg
-Why Roberts saved right from the Obama - Reuters Health
-The euro area saw only bank supervisor - WSJ
-Summit report outlines the Divisions on the sharing of power - WSJ
Summary of Asian and European Session
Oh, what a night. The past several currencies beta high days and correlated to the risk of the assets were under pressure as expectations for any kind of measures of the eurozone Summit flatly was zero. The logic was, and remains, European leaders did not have the means necessary to implement the structural reforms needed to not only stop the financial pain in the short term, but also to solve problems in the long term that first created the sovereign debt crisis.
Certainly, one of these was accomplished at the Summit this week, leading to the largest gathering of the Euro altogether by 2012. The US Dollar has had its worst day of the year; overall, we study the simple high beta currency plu displacement and correlated with the risk since 30 November 2011, when the federal reserve announced that its two years of currencies with European Central banks. Oh, what a night.
A step back in the charts for a second, we must take into account the parameters of the measures communicated to the Summit to decide or not to now almost-2 percent move in the Australian Dollar and the Euro will be long-term, or if we see some additional volatility due to the end of the month and the quarter.
In my view, there are four glaring holes in the top ads. First of all, it is clear that, in view of the language contained in the declaration, no bank recapitalisation plan by the European stability mechanism (ESM, which replaces the EFSF, the European financial stability facility) is not a guarantee; It is a possibility if strict conditions are met. Second, and stay on environmentally sound management, these changes must now be ratified by all 17 members of the Euro area; and the Germany still to ratify the agreement of the first. The ESM is therefore not be enabled. Third, the idea of the direct bank recapitalisation does serve well with taxpayers in the European core. And finally, fourth, mechanisms of rescue, in my opinion, are doomed to failure once the Italy and the Spain tap them. Once these countries tap the funds, the burden falls on the country in better health, and we have already seen that the Germany will be difficult to convince them to contribute more funds.
If there is a positive result at the Summit, it would be that the seniority has been removed from the ESM. This means that private holders who have been forced to take a cut of hair on Greek loans, have the same pain. This should allow Spanish yields recover. They have to date, with performance in Spanish note 2 years fell to 4.267 percent and performance of the note of 10 years at 6.393%.
EURUSD 5-minute: 29 June 2012
Graphing with Marketscope - prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Australian Dollar is the now surging 1.99% against the U.S. Dollar this day Friday. The EURUSD is significantly stronger, appreciating of 1.94%. The New Zealand Dollar has followed more so, with the NZDUSD judging of 1.90%. The Japanese Yen is the worst, with the USDJPY rallying for only 0.16 per cent.
PriceAction 24-hour


Main levels: 14: 20 GMT

So far, on Friday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is significantly less, trade at 10056.19 at the time when this report was written, after opening at 10173.06. The index traded mostly lower, with the high in the 10179.54 and bass at 10049.57.

Euro Retreats choice of the gaps in leadership positions open to buy

June 18, 2012 11: 16 GMT
Produce results electoral Greek stable reaction risk Pro rescue party wins election rest technical image guiding light during the meeting of the g-20 to inspire likely fresh volatility, official reports EU plan to counter the Spanish crisis gives pushed through the key barrier even if the eurozone is out the wood, the reaction of the initial election of Greek market was net positive to neutral as the worst scenarios of imminent Greek exit from the Euro prices are. There is still much speculation and expectation that a Grexit is unavoidable, the new who won part of the rescue pro plan, is certainly a little reassuring to global risk appetite.
Technically, the last major effort in the Euro falls directly under our projections, which were appointed to the additional force to the area from 1.2800 to 1.3000 before the summit before the deadline midterm will be required prior to resumption of the downward trend in the underlying. At that time, the election results help catalyze this technique to the dynamic and the emphasis will be CIMI today and tomorrow at the G-20, and reactions to the election of Greece and the impact bond spreads on Italian and Spanish. The euro has shot most of heights on Monday, but also attributed the price action for filling the open pit mine ....
Relative performance against the USD Monday (to the 11:10GMT)
NZD + 0.41 %
AUD + 0.33 %
EUR-0,09 %
CHF 0.12 %
CAD - 0.30 %
GBP - 0.43 %
JPY - 0.44 %
See also helps support a bit of risk were the UK Telegraph and New York times articles which report of an official EU plan on the horizon that will help it to address the many problems of the region. One of the main critical of eurozone crisis was a lack of leadership and staff is indeed capable of producing an official plan, it will be well received.
At this stage, it seems that the decline of the Euro that we saw in the previous weeks below 1.2300 perhaps on a waitlist for a scenario of the worst Greece in the peripheral countries of the euro area. Thus, the rally that followed continues to be the price of this risk of disadvantage. What this means, is that we do are in no way advocating a sustainable risk on the business environment, and that once the price is the worst in the Greek elections released, we could very well see some risks renewed commerce. Today, we believe that it is always better to remain marginalized, at least at the start of the day. We have already given some wild intraday swings, and Spanish yields breaking above 7%, it is really preferable to remain on the sidelines.
ECONOMIC CALENDAR

TECHNICAL OUTLOOK
EUR/USD: The market is in train to correct certain levels violently oversold after the breakdown of yearly lows little less 1.2300. While our global perspective is clearly bearish, here we find yet place upside in the short term before a low high fee is requested. Locate the last positive weekly open the door for an acceleration in the region of 1.2800 - 1.3000, where new offers are likely to re-emerge. Reverse must be well supported to 1.2400.

USD/JPY: The recent setbacks have been rather intense, with the market to collapse by the SMA 200 days before finally finding support by 77.65. We have since seen attempts at recovery and we argue that the market should continue to break higher, with views finally fixed on a retest and rupture of 2012 senior by calendering until more. However, at this stage, we will have to see a break and closing back above 80.00 to alleviate the pressures weighing officially and to reaffirm the optimistic Outlook.
GBP/USD: Daily studies are now correct oversold and risk CIHI seem inclined backwards to allow necessary short-term a corrective rebound after the setback down just shy of 2012 January low. Look for additional benefits to 1.5800 - 1.6000 from which an up, down, more significant is sought before bearish resumption.

USD/CHF: while we retain a more optimistic perspective for this pair, with the market seen to establish above parity in the coming weeks, short term risks are since more than a corrective retreat to allow the market to establish a fresh plu bass. Thus, we see the risks of weakness in the next sessions to 0.9200 - 0.9300 area before market seeks to reaffirm its bullish momentum and broader uptrend.

::Eyes of gold for the first positive month since January - critical next week

June 16, 2012 16: 11 GMT  fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral Gold is significantly stronger at the end of trade this week with the metal precious progress of 2.09% to nearly $1626 in New York, marking its biggest weekly advance since the first week of June. The price of bullion has increased steadily throughout the week risk of major event of the week next with elections key in Greece and the decision of FOMC rate on tap. The rise in the price of gold is accompanied by a decrease in the value of the greenback which closed the week off the coast of 0.80% after the G20 leaders cited of the preparations for a coordinated global response counter offshore risk of a liquidity crunch that the actors of the market of weight the consequences of a Greek-euro exit.
All eyes will be fixed on the Greece this weekend at the head of voters return to the polls for parliamentary elections with the likely outcome determine the future of the countries of the Euro area. With the global central banks reaffirming their commitment to provide additional liquidity should the Greek vote rile markets, it is probably however will remain well supported as the injection of liquidity invites investors to move from currency fiat on inflation concerns. While the results of the election will weigh heavily on the broader risk appetite, which is more crucial to the prospects for gold are how major global central banks - the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank - to meet a disappointing outcome of the elections. Indeed, chatter, 14 June suggested that the g-20 leaders discussed a coordinated response around the world to help support the euro. While we suspect an important announcement over the weekend, the next meeting of the Federal Reserve policy offers clues where this can occur.
The decision of rate FOMC Wednesday, highlights the risk of event more important for the precious metal. With national economic data begins to soften even once, recent speech of the Fed officials suggests that there is a growing split within the Federal Reserve with respect to start a new round of easing quantitative or not. Thus, the implications of the FOMC decision next week for gold can be significant participants of the market begin to factor in the likelihood of more fed of relaxation. Look for the value of the dollar offers clarity with the dollar likely to come under substantial pressure should officials signal intention to intervene in markets to support the fragile recovery. Such a scenario would likely fuel a rally in gold that takes the precious metal through resistance key to $1628.
From a technical point of view, gold remains within dating descending channel training to senior February with the closing of the week price just below the confluence of the resistance of the chain and the tracing of Fibonacci 38.2% from February 29 down $1628. A breach of this level exposes the objectives of resistance to the confluence of the 50 day moving average and the tracing of 50% to $1659 and the moving average 200 days to $1675. Interim support is the responsibility of the tracing by 23.6% to $1590 and is supported by the lower $ 1545 of June. It is important to note that the month last gold has broken below trendline support dating back to 2008 with only a full commitment to ease more the Fed likely to rehabilitate the break. Look for prices to benchmarks in the coast of the evolution of the situation in Greece and the decision of rate FOMC increased speculation of more comprehensive Bank Central facilitating likely to keep many gold argued early next week.
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16 June 2012 16: 11 GMT

$ USD rallies as may consumer confidence hits highest level since October 2007

The Takeaway: may u. of Michigan confidence Final Index 79.3 waves > Americans could extend their spending due to the higher financial confidence > USD/CAD loss to extend
US consumer confidence for may hit the highest level since October 2007, reflecting optimism persisted on the prospective resistance of the economy, inflation has eased and prospects of employment and wages have become more favourable.
The Thomson Reuters / final index of the University of Michigan mounted to 79.3 in May before 76.4 in April and well over 74.3 last May. The increase continued streak of consecutive earnings index, now at 10 months. Also topped test estimation of consensus as economists surveyed by Bloomberg News widely anticipated the gauge to hold in May of 77.8 preliminary reading.
The increase in confidence in the six months was substantial, with the Sentiment Index climbing well above the average of the recession of 69.3 but still less than the average of 88.1 for periods of non-récession. Consumers still had much hope on a growth of employment renewed in a short term despite the slowdown of jobs recently published by the Ministry of labour. Index of economic Conditions significantly increased to 87.2 in May of 82.9 in April. The Economic Outlook index advanced to 71.7 preliminary reading and 72.3 April 74.3. "The most likely prospect is that employment growth CV modest pace and confidence largely unchanged until after the November election and decisions relating to fiscal policy are taken", said Richard Curtin, Chief Economist of consumer surveys.
The final report revealed that expectations of inflation during one year before continue moderate to 3.0% preliminary reading of monthfrom may of 3.1% and 3.2% in April following a withdrawal of price of gasoline. During this time, the expectations for five years edged 2.7% to 3.0% of the preliminary report.
USDCAD1-minute chart: May 25, 2012

Graph created with strategy trader - prepared by Trang Nguyen
The US dollar has immediately edged more higher against most of its major trading partners in the minutes that followed the stronger than expected consumer confidence report. Seen 1 minute table USDCAD above, the greenback travelled 20 pips against the dollar of 1.0265 in of 1.0285 in thirty minutes. In the as of this report, the USDCAD trade to $1.02849.

:: EURUSD Drops to Lowest Level Since Mid-January as Yields Spike

Fundamental Headlines
- Dimon Fortress Breached as Push from Hedging to Betting Blows up – Bloomberg
- Moody’s Said to Delay Bank Downgrades amid Crisis, JPMorgan Loss – Bloomberg
- Greece Hits Political Stalemate, Euro Exit Fears Grow – Reuters
- China May Give Foreign Pension Funds New Investment Opportunities – WSJ
- Economists Forecast Subdued Growth in 2012 – WSJ
European Session Summary
What is the biggest problem in the market right now: Is it the Chinese growth picture? Is it the Euro-zone growth picture or the Greek political impasse? Or is it the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the US Dollar? In a sense, there is only one link that unifies these three macroeconomic issues: uncertainty. Uncertainty – a lack of clarity, having little knowledge of “known knowns” with deep fears of “unknown unknowns,” however you want to describe it – is what’s driving the Euro’s fastest rate of depreciation in over a month.
When considering how great this uncertainty is, one needs to look no further than this weekend to understand how shaken investors have become. The People’s Bank of China cut their reserve-requirement ratio (RRR) by 50-basis points on Saturday, reducing their key rate from 20.50 percent to 20.00 percent. Historically, when this has happened, the commodity currencies have rallied sharply in the ensuing trading sessions, with the Australian Dollar benefiting the most (the last time the RRR was cut, the weekend of February 18, the AUDUSD opened up the next week approximately 100-pips higher). However, this was not the case; in fact, the AUDUSD opened up slightly lower as US Dollar demand has soared amid the uncertainty surrounding the market.
With that said the information that market participants do know is not conducive to an atmosphere of risk-appetite. Greece’s political situation is gridlocked with recent polls suggesting that Syriza, the left-wing anti-bailout party, would receive the most amount of support should another round of elections be announced. This in turn has raised concerns that Greece could leave the Euro-zone entirely, as European leaders have made it clear that if Greece reneges on any of its commitments, then the country won’t receive anymore funds. German Chancellor Angela Merkel hasn’t helped soothe investor sentiment, saying today that Greece will “always” remain as an European Union member, a sign that she believes that Greece may not always be part of the Euro-zone.
Taking a look at credit, the flight to safety is in full throttle, with the US 10-year Treasury Note yield falling to 1.771 percent; its German counterpart saw its yield drop to 1.438 percent. Euro-zone funding concerns are most evident on the shorter-end of the curve, with Irish, Italian, Portuguese, and Spanish 2-year note yields soaring: these yields climbed to 5.200 percent, 3.289 percent, 6.831 percent, and 3.894 percent, respectively. To this end, Irish and Spanish 2-year notes are trading at their highest yield (lowest price) in over three-months.
EURUSD 5-min Chart: May 14, 2012

Charts Created using Marketscope – Prepared by Christopher Vecchio
The Japanese Yen has been the top performer, gaining 0.24 percent against the US Dollar. The British Pound has been exceptionally resilient, gaining 0.02 percent as well as the Sterling is benefiting from haven flows and a relatively hawkish central bank. The Euro has underperformed broadly, with the EURUSD shedding 0.67 percent and trading to its lowest level since January 18.
24-Hour Price Action

Key Levels: 12:50 GMT

Thus far, on Monday, the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (Ticker: USDOLLAR) is trading higher, at 10041.67 at the time this report was written, after opening at 10021.41. The index has traded mostly higher, with the high at 10049.70 and the low at 10019.28

! Loonie Falls Despite Surge in April Housing Starts To Fastest Pace Since 2007

THE TAKEAWAY: [Canadian housing starts accelerated in April for fifth straight month to fastest pace since September 2007] > [Continuing strength in housing market] > [CAD weakens vs. USD]
Housing starts in Canada unexpectedly accelerated in April for the fifth straight month to its fastest pace since September 2007. The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation reported a large jump to 244,900 housing starts at a seasonally adjusted annual pace in April, while March’s figure was revised slightly downwards to 215,200 from 215,600 originally reported. The median forecast of 21 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News had called for a slowdown to 204,000 housing starts in April. New starts soared by 28.8 percent in April from a year ago, compared with March’s year-on-year rate of 16.7 percent.
The pickup in housing starts in April was led by a surge in multi-family homes in urban areas, which recorded a 27.4 percent gain to 158,500 new starts. Meanwhile, housing starts in rural areas contracted by 19.0 percent from a month ago, reversing the 10 percent gain in March.
April's housing starts data follows yesterday’s news that the number of residential building permits approved had declined by 1.3 percent in March. This could indicate that we may see slight moderation in the coming months in the recent strength shown by the Canadian housing market, in what some analysts think is a housing bubble.
USDCAD 1-minute Chart: May 8, 2012

Chart created using Strategy Trader – Prepared by Tzu-Wen Chen
Despite the stronger-than-expected print, the Canadian dollar tumbled against the U.S. dollar in the minutes following the data release. The loonie fell as much as 20 pips in the first 15 minutes from pre-announcement levels, and despite a slight retracement, continued to trade weaker at C$0.9972 against the greenback at the time of this report.

€ The euro area debt reaches worst level since the single currency established

23 April 2012 07:30 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: Eurozone debt reaches worst level ever at 87.2% of GDP -> Governments borrowed more to pay for increased deficits and bailouts -> Euro remains with earlier day losses

Eurozone government debt for 2011 came in at 87.2% of the gross domestic product, for a total of 8.215 trillion Euros, reaching the worst debt level since the start of the Euro. The debt to GDP rate for 2010 was revised lower to 85.3%.

European governments increased borrowing to fill budget deficits and pay for bailouts. Greece showed the worst debt to GDP rate at 165.3%, followed by Italy at 120.1%. Germany had a debt rate of 81.2%, while France showed a rate of 85.8%. The rates were provided by the Eurostat in Luxembourg.

Meanwhile, Euro-area nations cut deficits to 4.1% of GDP in 2011 from the previous year’s 6.2%, but this and the debt figure are both larger than the permissible levels set by the European Union.

 EUR/USD surprisingly jumped up following the release of the data, before returning to its original levels. The pair is down for the day after a morning of mostly weaker than expected Purchase Manager Index rates from around Europe. EUR/GBP is still slightly higher since the release of the debt data.

$ Dollar Suffers Biggest Hit Since in Seven Weeks as Risk Perks Up

Dollar Suffers Biggest Hit Since in Seven Weeks as Risk Perks Up Australian Dollar Rallies after Employment Boost, Awaits Chinese GDP Japanese Yen Volatility Belongs to Carry, Trend to BoJ Stimulus Pressure Euro: With Global Sentiment Steadying, EU Crisis Fears Subside British Pound Strength Should be Monitored Through EURGBP Swiss Franc: SNB has a Distinct Interest in Risk Trends, Global Stimulus Gold Gains Serious Traction Against Dollar, Struggles Against Aussie Dollar Dollar Suffers Biggest Hit Since in Seven Weeks as Risk Perks Up

Though the dollar didn’t stick to its correlation with risk trends while sentiment waned through the first half of this week, it certainly did react as capital markets came roaring back these past 48 hours. The Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index put in for its worst one-day tumble (0.57 percent) since February 23rd and subsequently found itself at the threshold of a new bear trend. This is a concerning position for the benchmark currency to be in considering its propensity to leverage its reaction to ‘risk off’ scenarios and the notable trouble it had in overtaking its 10,100 range high over the past six months. Now that we find the dollar has discounted much of the very early, hawkish Fed policy expectations that were priced in through previous weeks, the rebound in the currency’s safe haven role looks perfectly timed to cause more trouble than benefit.

Monitoring risk trends should be a primary concern for all traders regardless of their market, and especially so for those involved with the majors. For risk guidance, we saw the S&P 500 reverse half of the loses over its five-day decline through Tuesday that set the tone for an underlying trend change. Through the past session, the catalysts for ‘risk on’ came through multiple sources. Heading into this week, concerns had built up that US corporate earnings would slow to their weakest levels since 2009 – though they would generally expand to new highs. This seems to have set the bar remarkably low, and the better-than-expected reports from Alcoa and Google have helped to retrace some of those negative expectations. Another outside catalyst is the moderation of fear surrounding the Euro Zone financial troubles. Fundamentally, the situation has not changed dramatically, but the drop in important sovereign debt yields (Spain and Italy) helps set the speculative tone.

The catalyst with potentially the most far-reaching and persistent influence on sentiment, however, are stimulus expectations. There were mild murmurs through the past trading day about QE3 looking more likely (likely in the wake of comments made by Fed members Yellen and Dudley), but the consensus seems generally set in winding down the expansive stimulus belief. If there were a means to boost support, it would likely come through a program more like the recent ‘Operation Twist’-style effort where the balance sheet is held steady but the portfolio composition is changed. That said, the focus has seemed to move beyond a mere reaction to Fed efforts only. In the absence of support from the world’s largest central bank, support from the Chinese, Euro Zone and Japanese groups have stepped in. Whose devaluing the currency now…

Australian Dollar Rallies after Employment Boost, Awaits Chinese GDP

The Aussie dollar was the stand out performer Thursday against the backdrop of strong risk appetite sentiment. Positive risk trends plays an influential role for this currency in particular as its sensitivity to rate changes has been leveraged through a deteriorating interest rate forecast. We would surprisingly see an improvement on that front as well however this past session. Following the surprising jump in employment growth for the month of March (44,000 jobs added), the 12-month rate forecast jumped 10 bps up from the two-month low (94 bps) set just the previous day. Further for risk trends, the strong Chinese lending figures would also boost the positive sentiment towards the currency. As a guide for those looking for the fundamental catalysts for the Aussie dollar, there are three themes that can be followed through three different pairs. The risk trends are best seen in AUDJPY. The Chinese economic influence shows through better in AUDUSD. And, rate forecasts show in AUDNZD.

Japanese Yen Volatility Belongs to Carry, Trend to BoJ Stimulus Pressure

Policy officials in Japan continue to do their best to taking the currency down – though this has very little influence on price action. Where the yen has found relief is through risk appetite trends itself. With the rebound in speculative interests over the past 48 hours, the carry trade interest has firmed up. Of course, those pairs with the larger carry differential (AUDJPY, NZDJPY) have enjoyed the larger upside swing; yet they will also be the most sensitive to big swings back and forth. If this risk rebound proves solid and progressive, the BoJ will find relief in the pressure to further expand stimulus. Yet, if we fall back into a ‘risk off’ scenario, the central bank will be scrambling again.

Euro: With Global Sentiment Steadying, EU Crisis Fears Subside

Have fundamentals improved for the Euro? Not really. However, as we have seen many times before, a positive turn in sentiment tends to cast the shared currency in a positive light and overshadows the fears that the FX market would otherwise dwell on. For an objective review of the developments that matter to the region’s underlying fundamental health, we start off on the government bond front. Italy sold €4.88 billion in debt (below the €5 billion maximum and with some maturities that fall outside the LTRO coverage), to relatively modest increases in yields – modest compared to the pained Spanish auction earlier this week. Meanwhile IMF head Lagarde stated that Spain shouldn’t be compared to any of the other periphery EZ countries that have sought bailouts and ECB member Paramo further charged speculation the SMP program is revived.

British Pound Strength Should be Monitored Through EURGBP

We’ve seen a lot of volatility in the sterling pairs, but much of this activity can be attributed to the cross currency rather than the pound. While the pound can take the role of a safe haven or yield currency given its middle-of-the-road benchmark, its intrinsic strength has been relatively unmoved recently. To see a true representation of strength for this currency specifically, a good read is EURGBP to monitor crisis spread.

Swiss Franc: SNB has a Distinct Interest in Risk Trends, Global Stimulus

The Swiss franc has appreciated alongside the Euro when we measure its performance against the yen or US dollar. But the focus for traders and policy officials when it comes to this pair remains on EURCHF. And, on that front, we have seen no meaningful progress to offer relief for SNB officials looking to maintain the integrity of the 1.2000 level they vowed to defend. In the changing seas of risk appetite trends, we see a lot of activity for yen crosses and dollar-based pairs; but the SNB is no doubt carrying high hopes for a risk recovery to usher the euro higher.

Gold Gains Serious Traction Against Dollar, Struggles Against Aussie Dollar

That test of the multi-year rising trendline proved influential for gold. The metal has put in for another impressive rally this past session to expand on raise the tally to a 68 point run. However, what has helped drive the commodity higher? A prime factor here is the US dollar’s remarkable weakness. However, outside of that drive, the drive has been relatively weak. In fact, if we look at gold in Australian dollar terms (which itself has capitalized on positive risk trends), we find that gold actually closed slightly lower on the day.

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ECONOMIC DATA

Next 24 Hours

Industrial Production YTD (YoY) (MAR)

Stable rate of industrial production showing that China could see soft landing

Industrial Production (YoY) (MAR)

Fixed Assets Inv Excl. Rural YTD (YoY) (MAR)

GDP falling towards 7.0% target as economy cools

Domestic consumers still spending, though government still targeting inflation

German inflation may give more scope for easing, monetary support

German CPI - EU Harmonised (MoM) (MAR F)

German CPI - EU Harmonised (YoY) (MAR F)

British input prices dropping, may put less pressures on consumer prices

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (MoM) (MAR)

PPI Output Core n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Italian CPI NIC Incl Tobacco (YoY) (MAR F)

Italian inflation expected stable, data may not move markets

Italian CPI NIC Incl Tobacco (MoM)(MAR F)

Italian CPI EU Harmonized (MoM) (MAR F)

Italian CPI EU Harmonized (YoY) (MAR F)

CPI Ex Food & Energy (MoM) (MAR)

US headline inflation expected to weaken somewhat on drop in energy prices, could allow for easing

CPI Ex Food & Energy (YoY) (MAR)

U. of Michigan Confidence (APR P)

Preliminary April number still showing improvement, though Fed still focused on labor

SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS

To see updated SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE LEVELS for the Majors, visit Technical Analysis Portal

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CLASSIC SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE –EMERGING MARKETS 18:00 GMTSCANDIES CURRENCIES 18:00 GMT

INTRA-DAY PROBABILITY BANDS 18:00 GMT

Yen COT Positioning Most Extreme Since 2007

Latest CFTC Release dated March 26, 2012:

Week (Data for Tuesdays)	52 week Percentile / Comment (if applicable)
US Dollar	63
Euro	33
British Pound	67
Australian Dollar	57
Japanese Yen	0 – positioning most extreme since July 2007
Canadian Dollar	71
Swiss Franc	24
Gold	25
Silver	39
Copper	55
Crude	82

The COT Index is the difference between net speculative positioning and net commercial positioning measured. A light blue colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bullish) with speculators selling and commercials buying. A light red colored bar indicates that the difference in positioning is the greatest it has been in 52 weeks (bearish) with speculators buying and commercials selling. Crosses above and below 0 are in bold. Non commercials tend to be on the wrong side at the turn and commercials the correct side. Use of the index is covered closely in detail in my book.

US Dollar

Euro

British Pound

Australian Dollar

Japanese Yen

Canadian Dollar

Swiss Franc

Gold

Silver

Copper

Crude

European Market Update: German ZEW Expectations survey turns positive for the first time since May 2011; China reiterates support for Europe

 Tuesday, February 14, 2012 5:54:21 AM
 TradeTheNews.com European Market Update: German ZEW Expectations survey turns positive for the first time since May 2011; China reiterates support for Europe
***Economic Data***
- (EU) ECB: €1.1B borrowed in overnight loan facility v €1.2B prior; €510.2B parked in deposit facility vs. €507.9B prior
- (ES) Spain Jan ECB Banks Borrowings: €161.4B v €132.4B m/m
- (IN) India Jan Monthly Wholesale Prices Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.7%e
- (FI) Finland Dec Final Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: 2.1% v 1.8% prelim
- (SE) Sweden Jan PES Unemployment Rate: 4.8% v 4.9%e
- (FR) France Q4 Preliminary Non-Farm Payrolls Q/Q: -0.2% v -0.2%e; Wages Q/Q: 0.3% v 0.3% prior
- (HU) Hungary Jan Consumer Prices M/M: 2.1% v 1.7%e; Y/Y: 5.5% v 5.0%e
- (HU) Hungary Dec Final Industrial Production M/M: -7.4% v -7.4% prelim; Y/Y: -6.7% v -6.7% prelim
- (ES) Spain Dec Industrial Orders Y/Y: -4.0% v -1.6% prior
- (FR) France Jan Real Retail Sales (seasonally adj) M/M: +0.6% v +0.2% prior; Y/Y: +0.7% v -3.1% prior - Bank of France Survey
- (NL) Netherlands Dec Retail Sales: 1.0% v 1.3% prior
- (SE) Sweden Q4 Total Number of Employees Y/Y: 3.1% v 3.5% prior
- (UK) Dec DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: +0.1% v -0.3% prior
- (UK) Jan CPI M/M: -0.5% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: 3.6% v 3.6%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 2.6% v 2.6%e - (UK) Jan RPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: 3.9% v 4.1%e; RPI-X Y/Y: 4.0% v 4.2%e; Retail Price Index: 238.0 v 238.4e
- (DE) Germany Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: +5.4 v -11.8e (first positive reading since May 2011); Current Conditions: 40.3 v 30.5e
- (EU) Euro Zone Dec Industrial Production M/M: -1.1% v -1.2%e; Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.2%e
- (EU) Euro Zone Feb ZEW Economic Sentiment: -8,1 v -32.5 prior
- (GR) Greece Q4 Preliminary GDP: Y/Y: -7.0% v -5.0% prior
- (PT) Portugal Q4 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: -1.5%e v -0.6% prior; Y/Y: -2.8%e v -1.7% prior
Fixed Income - (NL) Netherlands Debt Agency (DSTA) sold €3.98B vs €3.0-4.0B indicated range in 2.5% 2017 DSL Bond; Avg Yield 1.347% v 1.777% prior
- (ES) Spain Debt Agency sold total €5.44B vs. €4.5-5.5B indicated range in 12-Month and 18-Month Bills
- Sold €2.94B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 1.899% v 2.049% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.3 x v 3.55x prior; Max Yield 1.949% v 2.150% prior
- Sold €2.5B in 18-month Bills; Avg Yield 2.308% v 2.399% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.88x v 3.23x prior; Max Yield 2.395% v 2.490% prior
- (GR) Greece Debt Agency (PDMA) sold €1.3B vs. €1.0B indicaqted in 13-week treasury bills; Avg Yield 4.61% v 4.64% prior; Bid-to-cover:2.70 x v 2.90x prior
- (IT) Italy Debt Agency (Tesoro) sold €6.0B vs. €6.0B in 2014, 2015 and 2017 Bonds
- Sold €4.0B in 6.0% Nov 2014 BTPs; Avg Yield 3.41% v 4.83% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.40x v 1.22x prior
- Sold €687M in 3.0% Nov 2015 BTPs; Avg Yield 3.77%; Bid-to-cover: 2.37x
- Sold €1.31B in 4.0% Feb 2017 BTPs; Avg Yield 4.26% v 4.93% prior; Bid-to-cover: 1.71x v 2.3x prior****Note: -
- (EU) ECB allotted €142.8B in 7-Day Main Refinancing Tender vs. €115Be
- (EU) ECB allotted €14.3B in 1-Month Tender vs. €30.0Be
- (HU) Hungary Debt Agency (AKK) sold HUF60B in 3-Month Bills; Avg yield 7.32% v 7.32% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.52x v 2.69x prior
- (BE) Belgium Debt Agency sold total €3.2B vs. €3.0B indicated in 3-month and 12-month Bills
- Sold €1.80B in 3-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.291% v 0.506% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.51x v 2.70x prior
- Sold €1.41B in 12-month Bills; Avg Yield 0.892% v 1.162% prior; Bid-to-cover: 2.64x v 2.06x prior
*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
***Notes/Observations***
- Moody's downgrades 6 European sovereigns (Italy, Spain, Portugal, Slovakia, Slovenia & Malta) lowers outlook on several AAA (UK, Austria and France)
- BOJ sets an inflation target (and cranks up the printing press); Announced further easing measures (first since Oct)
- Fed's Williams (voting member): Vital to keep policy throttle wide open.
- Germany ZEW Survey registers its first positive reading since May 2011
- UK inflation data declines in Jan as expected by BOE
Equities: FTSE 100 +0.20% at 5915, DAX +0.60% at 6779, CAC-40 +0.30% at 3395, IBEX-35 +0.40% at 16,504, SMI +0.10% at 6182
- European shares traded mixed during today's session hurt by Moody's action which downgraded 6 European states, including Italy and Spain. The most worrying action for the markets is Moody's cutting UK's and France's outlook to negative from stable. However, Italy sold its debt in the indicated range. Losses were limited after Germany's ZEW increased and was a positive number, beating analysts' estimates.
- In individual names, Thyssenkrupp [TKA.DE] fell after reporting a larger than expected loss. The steel maker had already stated that Q1 EBIT would be considerably lower than last year's and was unable to give an outlook for FY12. Swedbank [SWEDA.SE] reported a lower than expected operating profit although net interest income was higher than estimates. The bank however decided to withdraw its capital targets and would decide on new ones when the situation was more stable. Among winners, MAN [MAN.DE] reported better than expected earnings.
Speakers: - China Premier Wen met key European officials in Beijing and hereiterated that China was ready to "get more involved" to help Euro debt and maintained confidence in Euro. He also hoped EU maintained its stability and prosperity and supported strengthening of fiscal discipline in Europe
- EU President Van Rompuy welcomed China's PM Wen support for Europe and noted that both regions were becoming increasingly inter-dependent. China was making progress on its CNY currency rate and rebalancing its economy. China showed "solid interest" on EFSF investment
- EU's Barroso commented from Beijing that EU was doing what was necessary to restore confidence and that the region was seeking more investment access in China
- Austria Fin Min Fekter commented that she was confident that Greece would get more help. She noted that no Austrian banks have asked for aid
- Bank of Japan Gov Shirakawa commented at his post rate decision press conference that the BOJ would not end its inflation targeting until the 1% CPI rise was in sight. He stressed that the BOJ would ensure Japan's economic recovery through its policy and that the central bank was not pressured by gov't in today's action but both did share the perspective of what is deemed as price stability. Today's decision meant buying JGBs at a faster pace
But not use JGB purchases for monetizing debt. The change in wording on prices aimed at clarifying BoJ's determination to deal with deflation.
- ZEW Economists commented after the better Feb data that the economic slowdown in Germany was unlikely to last as domestic demand expected to support economic growth. It stressed that a solution to Euro Zone crisis remained an important issue but progress with Greek creditors might have reduced uncertainty. Lastly it noted that Germany might see slight uplift in H2 2012
- ECB's Nowotny reiterated the central bank view that it did not see risk of inflation. He cautioned that Euro region needed to avoid the same fate as Japan's. The main objective was to avoid longer periods of stagnation.
- ECB's Coeure commented that the ECB should distribute profits on Greek debt to member nations who could use it to contribute to sustainability of Greek debt
- Bank of England released its inflation letter noting that inflation was falling broadly as expected and expected to hit around target of 2.0% by end of 2012. Impact of factors that pushed up inflation was now waning. CPI decline due to VAT and energy prices but cautioned that a risk of an oil shock was possible due to political tensions. Extent of CPI decline was highly uncertain with key uncertainties of wages and profit margin building. To focus on spare capacity and inflationary expectations and that the key policy outlook was the medium-term view
- France Fin Min Baroin commented on Moody's lower revision of the French sovereign outlook that the Govt will continue to seek an increase its economic growth and competitiveness. He noted that Moody's action was due to risks associated with the Euro Zone. He confirmed France 2012 GDP growth forecast of 0.5%
- Poland Fin Min Rostowski Greece's Euro exit would be less damaging at this time compared to 2011 but would pose legal obstacles. Greek default would have less impact with new EU policies because of the European Central Bank's liquidity measures. He noted that it was not clear how it would be possible for Greece to leave the euro zone under its legal system
- China State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) reiterated it stance to enhance monitoring of two-way cross-border capital flows and improve policy response to impact of capital flows.
- Turkey Econ Min Babacan commented that the country's 2011 imports came in at $240.8B and added that he was not comfortable with the level of imports
Currencies:
- The session shrugged off the initial effects of the multi-country European sovereign downgrade and revisions to AAA outlooks. The EUR/USD clawed its way from late Asian session lows of 1.3128 and moved above 1.32 handle by the NY morning following better German ZEW data and commentary of out China's Premier Wen.
- The USD/JPY was probing the upper end of its three-month range with 78.30 being the key resistance following the BOJ policy decision to set a inflation target. Some dealers noting that the continued threat of BOJ FX intervention would be more successful if enacted above the pivotal 78.30 level
- The GBP/USD recovered from its Far east session lows of 1.5686 after Moody's became the first major rating agency to cut the UK's sovereign outlook to negative. The pair was only slightly negative ahead of the NY morning at 1.5755
Political/ In the Papers:
- Portugal is to hold a fresh round of discussions with its international creditors this week before the next tranche of funds are set. Troika officials and the IMF will arrive Wednesday for a two-week review of the country. If approved, then it will be given the next tranche of €14.9B.
- The Independent looked at who could replace the current Bank of England Governor King next year when his term expires. The decision on the succession will be made by the Prime Minister, and advised by the Chancellor and the Cabinet Secretary. Note that the last two Governors were chosen from within the Bank, which places the leading internal candidate, the present deputy governor, Paul Tucker, in a strong position. Other candidates include Andy Haldane, external candidate Lord Turner, Sir John Vickers, John Varley, and former HSBC chairman Lord Green.
- The UK federation of trade unions, Trades Union Congress (TUC), released a report that finds true unemployment in the country may be as high as 6.3M, over twice the official figure of 2.68M released last month. The higher figure was found by using an American measure, which includes part-time employment due to the lack of full-time jobs, recent redundancies. TUC found that under-employment (those taking on temporary or part-time work because they cannot find permanent, full-time work) increased to 1.3M (record).
***Looking Ahead***
- (US) China Vice premier Xi Jinping will visit the White House on Feb 14th
- (IT) Italy PM Monti in Parliament
- 6:00 (BR) Brazil Dec Retail Sales M/M: 0.1%e v 1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.0%e v 6.8% prior; Broad Retail Sales Y/Y: No est v 3.2% prior
- 6:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 10% 2013 and fixed 2022 Bonds
- 6:00 (TR) Turkey to sell 2021 Inflation Linked Bonds
- 6:30 (DE) OECD chief Gurria presents German Economic Survey in Berlin
- 7:00 (EU) ECB announces allotment in 7-Day Term Deposits to offset Govt Bond purchases
- 7:00 (IC) Iceland Jan Unemployment Rate: No est v 7.3% prior
- 7:30 (US) Jan NFIB Small Business Optimism: 95.0e v 93.8 prior
- 7:45 (US) Weekly ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 8:00 (PL) Poland Jan M3 Money Supply: -1.4%e v +3.2% prior
- 8:30 (US) Jan Import Price Index M/M: +0.3%e v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: 7.2%e v 8.5% prior - 8:30 (US) Jan Advance Retail Sales: 0.8%e v 0.1% prior; Retail Sales Less Autos: +0.5%e v -0.2% prior; Retail Sales Ex Auto & Gas: 0.5%e v 0.0% prior
- 8:45 (US) Fed's Plosser speaks on Economy in Newark, Delaware
- 8:55 (US) Weekly Redbook Retail Sales
- 9:00 (EU) Weekly ECB Forex Reserves
- 9:45 (UK) BOE to buy £1.5B in 2027-2060 Gilts in reverse auction
- 10:00 (US) Treasury Sec Geithner testifies before Senate
- 10:00 (US) Dec Business Inventories: 0.5%e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico International Reserves w/e Feb 10th
- 10:00 (MX) Mexico Jan Vehicle Production: 211.0Ke v 180.2K prior; Vehicle Domestic Sales: No est v 115.7K prior; Vehicle Exports: No est v 171.3K prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to purchase $4.25-5.00B in Notes
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell 4-Week Bills
- 16:00 (CL) Chile Central Bank Interest Rate Decision: Expected to cut the Nominal Overnight Rate Target by 13bps to 4.88%
- 16:00 (KW) South Korea Jan Export Price Index M/M: No est v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: No est v 2.5% prior
- 16:00 (KW) South Korea Jan Import Price Index M/M: No est v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: No est v 7.1% prior
- 16:30 (US) Weekly API Energy Inventories
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