Gold keeps minutes in the focus range 8 consecutive weeks - FOMC

Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral

Gold was more than 1% this week with the precious metals at $1581 on Friday after a disappointing NFP print broader commodities and stock markets weighed close. Before the end of trading on Friday had reduced throughout the week ahead, suggesting with the specifications, that the couple can test the lower bound of its recent gold. But gold is now a $100 range hold for the last two months, we remain pending before an outbreak of its recent range on the sidelines with our longer-term trend is still weighted down.

A weaker than expected pressure in June non-farm wages and payrolls report weighed on broader risk appetite with gold, the tracking of stocks and other commodities connected lower on Friday. NFP amounted to 80 K, missing consensus estimates for the reading of 100 K keep with the unemployment rate of 8.2%, as expected. A drill down deeper shows a slight improvement in the data in employment, a senior unsecured looked back as discouraged workers employees. Wage growth rose also unexpectedly in June on his fastest pace this year. The data were weak enough, where it is unlikely that further relief from the federal warrant reserve, but continue to weigh concerns about a global slowdown in economic growth to broader market sentiment continues to take hold. Gold paragraph 1.65% on the heels of the release as a fear of deflation reduced demand after the previous metal as a hedge against rising prices.

Look at the next week, dealers will closely minutes from the June 20 meeting FOMC policy amid widespread concern over domestic growth prospects and a continued recovery in the labour market are considered. Investors will weigh the Outlook, quoted on future monetary policy in the light of labour market data on Friday after Chairman Bernanke, that the Central Bank was ready to act conditions should deteriorate further. With growth, the recent uptick in wage growth and continued stickiness underlying price, however, find we it unlikely that the Fed will go on further easing at these levels. Find gold, continue to strongly to fluctuations in the dollar with the 20-tägige inverse correlation between the Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) and the price of gold hit to respond its highest level since mid-April.

From a technical perspective gold in consolidation for the past eight weeks with the price keeps its recent range of 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, which September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or been taken. Friday's reduced the whole week ahead suggest further weakness ahead with our medium-term bias number (s) weighted down, as long as the February 1641 is highly respected decline. Soft support lies on the $1561 secured through the area with 1545 low. As Jamie Saettele notes "this length of consolidation is a stunning break probably..." "Fuel finally" with a break below the 61.8% extension considered subsequent floors at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1624 with a break over the heights of the June relief further downside pressure. Such a scenario is seen at the 200-day moving average at $1660, the may highs at $1671 and the $1700 mark our bias with overhead goals invalid. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

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5 June 2012 14: 03 GMT the Central Bank to take: Canada maintains its reference to 1.00% rate > the global growth Outlook weakened while Canadian growth is less balanced and Inflation is Well-anchored > CAD slips against major peers


When monetary policy meeting today, the Bank of Canada decided to maintain the interest rates to 1.00% for the thirteenth time in a row, extending its longest break since the 1950s. The target rate has remained unchanged since September 2010, after three consecutive increases of 25% 0.25 basis points. Decision of the Bank of the Canada rate was not surprised the market that it corresponded to the median projections of Bloomberg News survey. The discount rate is proportionally 1.25% and the deposit rate is 0.75 per cent.
The Bank cited weak prospects for global growth and domestic growth slower than expected as the main reasons to defer interest rates increase. As the Bank released its April monetary policy (MPR) report, the global economiccondition has deteriorated in recent weeks. Risks around the European crisis has intensified, including political unrest in Greece and its possible exit of Euro, the fears of banking crisis in Spain and the threat of contagion of debt in the euro area. In addition, the American economy continues recovery at a modest pace and especially in emerging market economies have slowed.
At last Friday's GDP report showed that the economy expanded at an annualized rate of only 1.9% to 2.5% Central Bank forecasts and has remained unchanged since the fourth quarter, growth. The composition of growth has become "less balanced" housing activity is stronger than expected but households continue to add to their burden of debt the modest revenue growth.On the price front, inflation appears to have entered a period of stability with the basic price index should be the objective of 2% of the Bank.
The Bank reiterated in his statement that "persistent force currency" dollar Canadian has been an ongoing challenge for tenth largest economy from domestic currencies of the world reduces foreign demand and hurt net exports. Responsible Canadian policies have continued to support wait them and observe everything to agitate on any withdrawal of this stimulus considerable of monetary policy in economic expansion continues and excess supply is gradually absorbed. "The calendar and the degree of any withdrawal will be"weighted carefully"against national and global economic developments", pointed out the Bank.
Chart 1-minute USDCAD: 5 June 2012
Graph created with strategy trader - prepared by Trang Nguyen
In the minutes following the decision of the Bank of Canada rates, the Canadian Mint immediately reduced gains against its major currencies. As is the 1-minute chart above, the pair USDCAD removed about 40 pips 1.0375 1.0420 within five minutes. Apparently, current weakness in the global economy and stable inflation curbing speculation on if interest rates increase soon. During the writing of this report, the New Zealand dollar was transferred to $1.0375
-Written by Trang Nguyen, DailyFX research team of DailyFX.com
Contact Trang, by e-mail at tnguyen@dailyfx.com
DailyFX provides news forex and technical analysis on trends affecting the world market currencies.
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5 June 2012 14: 03 GMT

TradeTheNews.com Asian Market Update: RBA keeps rates on hold, Weaker GDP forecasts for NZ and China

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(AU) RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA (RBA) LEAVES CASH TARGET RATE UNCHANGED AT 4.25%, NOT EXPECTED >- (NZ) NEW ZEALAND Q4 AVERAGE HOURLY EARNINGS Q/Q: 0.0% V 0.5%E; PRIVATE WAGES EX-OVERTIME Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.5%E (3-year high); INCLUDING OVERTIME Q/Q: 0.7% V 0.5%E
- AU) AUSTRALIA JAN AIG PERFORMANCE OF CONSTRUCTION INDEX: 39.8 V 41.0 PRIOR (first decline in 4 months; 20th month of contraction)
- (IN) INDIA Q1 ADVANCED GDP ANNUALIZED Y/Y: 6.9% V 7.0%E
- (JP) JAPAN DEC PRELIMINARY LEADING INDEX: 93.8 V 93.8E; COINCIDENT: 93.2 V 93.1E
- (UK) UK JAN BRC SALES LFL Y/Y: -0.3% V -0.8%E
- (PH) PHILIPPINES JAN CONSUMER PRICE INDEX (CPI) M/M: 0.4% V 0.5%E; Y/Y: 3.9% V 4.0%E
- (KR) SOUTH KOREA JAN DEPARTMENT STORE SALES Y/Y: -4.2% V +11.0% PRIOR
- (JP) JAPAN JAN OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $1.31T V $1.30T PRIOR
- (PH) PHILIPPINES JAN FOREIGN RESERVES: $77.0B V $75.1B PRIOR
- (RU) RUSSIA JAN OFFICIAL RESERVE ASSETS: $505.4B V $505.0BE
- (ID) Indonesia Jan Foreign Reserves: $112.0B v $110.1B prior
- (ID) Indonesia Jan Net Foreign Assets (IDR): 980.8T v 965.9T prior
- (ZA) South Africa Jan Foreign Reserves: $41.7B v $39.9B prior
***Markets Snapshot (as of 05:30GMT)***
- Nikkei225 -0.4%
- S&P/ASX -0.5%
- Kospi +0.3%
- Taiwan Taiex +0.2%
- Singapore Straits Times +0.3%
- Shanghai Composite -1.9%
- Hang Seng -0.2%
- S&P Futures unchanged at 1,339
- April gold -0.1% at $1,723/oz
- March Crude -0.1% at $96.86
***Overview/Top Headlines***
- Markets were subdued across the region ahead of the key Reserve Bank of Australia rate decision. However after the RBA, in a surprise move, kept rates unchanged at 4.25% the markets tumbled, with the ASX falling 0.4%, key trading partner China saw the Shanghai Composite fall nearly 2%. The AUD/USD rose over 90 pips testing $1.08, a 6-month high. The RBA said there were reduced risks from Europe and borrowing rates had declined to levels close to medium term average. RBA also thought that the inflation outlook provided for easier policy. Markets also remained under pressure from the thorn in the side of Europe, Greece, and its inability to come to a solution; this is also counteracting stronger economic data out of the US. Adding insult to injury Greek PM Papademos and other politicians delayed a key meeting on reforms ry. Mixed earnings out of Asia-Pacific are also muddling any strong move to the upside. EUR/USD reequired by creditors adding more frustration to the situation ahead of a 24 hour strike in Greece todamained slightly weaker awaiting the outcome in Greece. USD/JPY bounced around in a tight range after the Japan MoF released Q4 intervention data which showed 5 days of intervention in Nov, spending ¥1.02T on stealth intervention with yen selling in the period. Also weighing on China shares were cautious comments from China's MIIT and IMF's projection that China GDP could be cut in half from 8.2% if the European situation got worse. Commodities were weaker across the board with heavy pressure on copper and silver.
***Speakers/Geopolitical/In the press***
- (CN) CBRC: China is not likely to liberalize 1-year deposit rates this year - China Daily
- (KR) Bank of Korea (BoK): Economy will return to a modest pace of accelerating growth in H2; Jan inflation fall mainly due to high 2011 figures
- (NZ) New Zealand Treasury: Outlook is weaker than in pre-election update; Q4 GDP likely to be 0.6% q/q vs 0.8% in Q3
- (JP) Japan Fin Min Azumi: Cannot rule out any currency options; Concerned about Greece's problems; Japan needs to strengthen its cooperation with China
- (CN) According to China Real Estate Index System 37 mainland developers each booked property sales exceeding CNY10B in 2011 v 35 companies in 2010 - HK press
- (JP) Bank of Japan (BoJ) Gov Shirakawa: Reiterates will make strong effort to combat deflation; BoJ has been supplying plenty of liquidity to the market
- (CN) China Industry Ministry: Steel industry profits in China to narrow because weaker demand and higher input costs; Still expects relatively rapid industrial output growth in 2012, but modest slowing possible
***Equities***
- Advanced Semiconductor Engineering, 2311.TW: Reports Jan consolidated Rev NT$13.6B v NT$14.9B m/m, -13.1% y/y
- KUB: Reports 9-month Net ¥42.8B v ¥44.1B y/y, Op Profit ¥76.8B v ¥69.0B y/y, Rev ¥730.6B v ¥680.0B y/y
- TM: Repuidance and production targets
- Korean orts Q3 Net ¥80.9B v ¥61Be, Op Profit ¥149.7B v ¥96Be, Rev ¥4.86T v ¥4.9Te; Raises FY11/12 gAir, 003490.KR: Exec: Was a difficult year for the freight market; Saw no drop in bookings after wing cracks on A380
- TCL.AU: Reports H1 Net profit A$93.2M, +24.8% y/y; Rev A$571M, +23.1% y/y
- COH.AU: Reports H1 Net loss A$20.4M (ex-recall costs A$80.2M) v profit A$87.2M y/y; Rev A$387.5M v A$377M y/y
- MQG.AU: Guides FY12 Net profit 25% lower than FY11 (implies A$717M); Announces plans to start 10% share buyback program in H1 FY13
***US Equities***
- YUM: Reports Q4 $0.75 v $0.74e, R$4.11B v $4.0Be; +2.2% afterhours
- APC: Reports Q4 adj $0.85 v $0.62e, R$3.84B v $3.3Be; +1.4% afterhours
- CSTR: Reports Q4 $1.00 v $0.64e, R$520.5M v $498Me; Redbox to acquire the assets of NCR's Entertainment Line of Business for up to $100M; +16.9% afterhours
***FX/Fixed Income/Commodities***
- SLV: iShares Silver Trust ETF daily holdings rise to 9,649 tons from 9,622 tons (highest since 9,698 on Dec 20th)
- (JP) Tokyo Grain Exchange may be dissolved, considering transferring some market to other bourses - Japanese press

Speculation of SNB’s Move Keeps Swissie Trade Brisk

 Swiss bulls stand at the ready for an SNB intervention. Speculation is rife that it will come soon and recent data pointing to a slowing down of the Swiss economy may hasten the decision. Yesterday, it was reported that the pace of Swiss manufacturing slowed in January, even as the frail Eurozone showed an unexpected improvement. Today’s economic data shows a decline in Swiss exports in December, with real exports falling by 1.6%, primarily attributed to waning demand as well as a still-too-strong Swiss Franc.

Analysts point out that the Swissie is still 30% stronger now than before the 2008 financial crisis, and the peg set at 1.20 has not helped to the extent envisioned. OpenBook’s traders of the Swissie have been readying their positions in anticipation of an intervention. Openbook trader Baldi62, from Switzerland, allocates about 14% of his portfolio to the EUR/CHF pair, and has been opening long positions since yesterday in anticipation of an SNB move. This trader is monitoring the action closely and is quick to close out a trade that appears to be tanking while letting the profits run on the others. The last three profitable trades averaged a 69% gain.

OpenBook guru santosh has also gone long on the EUR/CHF pair with several open trades, as well as several more on USD/CHF; a new peg on the Euro-Swiss will inevitably affect the Swissie’s other crosses as well. Not to miss out on the opportunity guru pyruss also has several open longs.

Traders on the OpenBook are almost completely bullish, with a ratio of 16 longs to 1 short; the entire population of EUR/CHF traders appears to be expecting an intervention and are wary of being caught short. The question of when the SNB will intervene is on every trader’s mind, but given that this is a new SNB, no longer under the helm of Philipp Hildebrand, it’s possible that this waiting game is being played under different rules.