Gold range is at risk amid Bernanke testimony, Fed’s beige book

 Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral Trade is modest fixed gold at the end of this week with the precious 0.59% by the close of trade Friday ahead. Prices remained largely within a clearly defined range almost nine weeks now when participants try to assess market with gold of seemingly broad risk-weighted assets since the end of June to track future monetary policy by global central banks. Gold bars of the 20-tägige correlation with the S & P-500 has currently highest reached since November 2010 is 0.72 and the metal likely to cope with current range as markets continue to growing concern over global growth prospects.
On Wednesday, the FOMC Protocol offered added little hope for investors who eagerly greater calls expect additional financial support were. In fact continue to the majority in the Committee little room for one more large-scale asset program with the minutes revealed that only "a few members said, more impulse would probably be needed." As the fresh batch of the Central Bank the chance for QE3 dampens rhetoric increased the displacement of the policy Outlook the attractiveness of the dollar, which will limit expected to be substantial progress in the gold price in the meantime. A look at the next week, dealers will loans be a great ear for remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke, he before Bank Committee on Tuesday and the House witnessed financial services Committee on Wednesday. However, investors may overlook Bernanke notes before the Fed beige book, which is scheduled for publication on Thursday at 1800GMT and maybe we see the twelve districts after positive assessment of last month highlight improvements in the Fed further continuing the report. However, if the report shows added to signs of strains on economic activity, was speculation for further relaxation of the Central Bank keep gold prices well supported as the call for the yellow metal as a store of value increases prosperity.
From a technical perspective, gold is in the consolidation of the last nine weeks remained, as prices in the apex of the triangle formation within the range between 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, that September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or taken to consolidate. Break below the 61.8% enlargement succeeding eyes land at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1600 with a break on the heights in relief of 1625 in the short term more downside pressure July. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

Gold keeps minutes in the focus range 8 consecutive weeks - FOMC

Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral

Gold was more than 1% this week with the precious metals at $1581 on Friday after a disappointing NFP print broader commodities and stock markets weighed close. Before the end of trading on Friday had reduced throughout the week ahead, suggesting with the specifications, that the couple can test the lower bound of its recent gold. But gold is now a $100 range hold for the last two months, we remain pending before an outbreak of its recent range on the sidelines with our longer-term trend is still weighted down.

A weaker than expected pressure in June non-farm wages and payrolls report weighed on broader risk appetite with gold, the tracking of stocks and other commodities connected lower on Friday. NFP amounted to 80 K, missing consensus estimates for the reading of 100 K keep with the unemployment rate of 8.2%, as expected. A drill down deeper shows a slight improvement in the data in employment, a senior unsecured looked back as discouraged workers employees. Wage growth rose also unexpectedly in June on his fastest pace this year. The data were weak enough, where it is unlikely that further relief from the federal warrant reserve, but continue to weigh concerns about a global slowdown in economic growth to broader market sentiment continues to take hold. Gold paragraph 1.65% on the heels of the release as a fear of deflation reduced demand after the previous metal as a hedge against rising prices.

Look at the next week, dealers will closely minutes from the June 20 meeting FOMC policy amid widespread concern over domestic growth prospects and a continued recovery in the labour market are considered. Investors will weigh the Outlook, quoted on future monetary policy in the light of labour market data on Friday after Chairman Bernanke, that the Central Bank was ready to act conditions should deteriorate further. With growth, the recent uptick in wage growth and continued stickiness underlying price, however, find we it unlikely that the Fed will go on further easing at these levels. Find gold, continue to strongly to fluctuations in the dollar with the 20-tägige inverse correlation between the Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) and the price of gold hit to respond its highest level since mid-April.

From a technical perspective gold in consolidation for the past eight weeks with the price keeps its recent range of 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, which September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or been taken. Friday's reduced the whole week ahead suggest further weakness ahead with our medium-term bias number (s) weighted down, as long as the February 1641 is highly respected decline. Soft support lies on the $1561 secured through the area with 1545 low. As Jamie Saettele notes "this length of consolidation is a stunning break probably..." "Fuel finally" with a break below the 61.8% extension considered subsequent floors at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1624 with a break over the heights of the June relief further downside pressure. Such a scenario is seen at the 200-day moving average at $1660, the may highs at $1671 and the $1700 mark our bias with overhead goals invalid. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

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Or to Hold recent range despite USD Dump on the EU summit agreement

Fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral
Gold is higher at the end of the trade this week with the metal precious progress of 1.79% at the end of the month to the mark $ 1600. A massive rally in broader risk Friday fueled a rally of 3.06% gold after the EU leaders agreed to the band of emergency loans granted to Spanish banks of their seniority status which guarantees up to 100 billion € creditors default, a clear disadvantage to private bondholders. The move was able to put pressure on the Spanish yields that have reached their highest level since the month of November 2011 this month with the fall of 6.8% to 6.3%, 10 years Friday. While the announcement made few adr3ess the structural problems of the region, it mitigates the Spanish financing concerns in the short term with a substantial rebound in appetite for risk weighing on the greenback in favour of
The future of next week, traders will be be closely considering the RBA, BoE interest rate decisions and the ECB with data from key non-agricultural employment of Friday to steal the spotlight. While the Australia and the United Kingdom will leave rates unchanged at 3.5% and 0.50% respectively, focuses on the ECB with the differences in the expectations of the market and Economist considers likely to fuel added volatility in the markets. Night credit Switzerland swaps suggest that market participants are factoring in 37% chance of a rate cut on Thursday, then that 45 of the 57 Economist surveyed by Bloomberg called for lowering the cost of borrowing from the Central Bank. As such, blow of golden eye respond accordingly with more likely facilitate to maintain prices well supported investors look to hedge against the depreciation of the currency and inflation. Data on employment Friday may have the greatest impact on the price of gold next week with a consensus of estimates of the appellant for the addition of any K 90 jobs for the month of June, a slight improvement of the 69 K jobs created in May. In light of the recent decision by the Fed of scope operation key rather than to start a new series of large-scale asset purchases, a lower than expected printing is likely to feed speculation for plu Fed ease, there still no doubt to support the price of gold in the short term.
From a technical point of view, but is still within a descendant of canal dating from the formation to the heights of February with the closing price just below the confluence of the moving average 50 days and the tracing of 61.8% taken form June 15 drops to $1601. Over this breach exposes targets resistance subsequent superstructure depressions April $1612 and the confluence of the 100-day moving average and the top of June approximately $1641. Note that daily that RSI continued to hold above the mark of 40 with a violation over 60 changing of our Centre for higher interest. At first view, it is important to keep in mind that gold has been largely linked to the price holding between extension 38.2% Fibonacci from February to June to $1540 ridges and the highs from June to $1640. Although our prospects long term on the precious metals remains weighted to the downside, fundamental factors and the weakness of the greenback could see well supported in the short term with our prejudices on gold remaining neutral pending out of this price range. -MO

Canadian dollar could threaten the range on higher employment

Fundamental forecasts for gold: neutral
The Canadian dollar ended the month pleased against its American counterpart, in the sense of risk rise and loons can appreciate more in the week ahead as the economic record is expected to encourage improved prospects for the region. Indeed, the employment report highlights the greater risk of event for the following week, and development may support the Canadian currency as the labour market is expected to add another K 5 jobs in June.
The economic recovery gradually gathers pace, there is one more argument for the Bank of the Canada to raise the interest rate of 1.00% reference, and we see Governor Mark Carney continue to talk of speculation for higher borrowing costs to combat the record increase in domestic debt. However, we will be convinced that a possible rate hike would be a single agreement, as the sovereign debt crisis continues to drag on global growth, and it appears that investors see a case for more facilities as the BoC is designed to encourage a sustainable recovery. According to Credit Switzerland night index swap, market participants requested that costs more at the beginning of June, but start at a reduced rate for the following 12 months the price, and the change in the prospect of an interest rate can gather pace over the short term in the slowdown of growth and inflation. In turn, we could attend the Central Bank to maintain its approach of wait and see throughout 2012, and the USDCAD may face range-bound prices in July that the market participants weigh prospects for monetary policy.
As the USDCAD continues to find support provisional on 1.0160 figure, the pair seems ready for a rebound in the short term in the next few days, and we see the action side price in July in the uncertainty surrounding the fundamental Outlook for the Canada. However, we will be either to keep a close eye on the index relative of strength as the trend in the oscillator continues to take form, and we see the exchange rate back to the tracing of Fibonacci from 78.6% of 2007 low in 2009 high around 1.0100-10 should developments on tap for the speculation of fuel next week for a BoC rate hike. -DS

:::: S & P 500 Breaks Range Top, US Dollar Losses Grip it Support

27 April 2012 05: 00 GMT THE TAKEAWAY: The S & P 500 took out the top of the range that contained prices for the past two weeks while the US Dollar slipped below support in place from late March.S & P 500 - Prices took out resistance at 1391 10-20 marked by the recent range top and the 50% Fibonacci level tracing. Bulls are now testing the 61.8 percent level at 1399.10, with a break above exposing the April 2 closing high at 1416.10. The 1391 10-20 area has been recast as near-term support.

CRUDE OIL - Prices are showing a Shooting Star candlestick below resistance at 104.90, a former level support reinforced by the top of a falling channel set from early March. The setup warns of bullish exhaustion and hints a turn lower maybe ahead. Initial rising trend line support is now at 101.98.

GOLD - Prices the top of a falling channel set from early March now at 1660.60, with a break higher exposing 1680.35. Support lines up at 1638.02, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Absent a daily close above the channel top, the overall trend remains bearish.

US DOLLAR - Prices took out support at 9906 to test the next downside barrier at 9879. Continued selling through this barrier exposes 9832. The 9906 level has been recast as near-term resistance, with a push back above seeing trend line resistance now at 9926.

Canadian Dollar to Hold Range on Slower Consumption, BoC Testimony

21 April 2012 00: 37 GMT

 

Fundamental Forecast for Canadian Dollar: Neutral

The Canadian dollar pared the decline from earlier this month as the Bank of Canada raised its fundamental assessment for the region, but the loonie may struggle to hold its ground next week as the economic docket is expected to reinforce a weakened outlook for growth. As market participants see a slower rate of private consumption in February, a slew of dismal developments could push the USDCAD back towards parity, and the pair may threaten the range-bound price action carried over from earlier this year should the data dampens the scope for a rate hike.

Indeed, the BoC talked up speculation for higher interest rates as policy makers now see the economy back at full-capacity operation in the first-half of 2013, and Credit Switzerland overnight index swaps already reflect expectations for higher borrowing costs as market participants start to price a rate hikes for the next 12-months. However, we may see Governor Mark Carney endorse a one-time move in order to bring down the marked expansion in home-equity credit lines, and the central bank head may strongly opposed for a series of rate hikes as the record rise in household indebtedness presents a major threat to the recovery. As Mr. Carney is scheduled to testify in front of the house of Commons Finance Committee and the Senate Banking Committee next week, the governor may strike a more balanced tone for monetary policy, and we may see the BoC preserve its wait-and-see approach for a prolonged period of time as the economic recovery continues to be driven by the ongoing rise in household borrowing.

As the USDCAD maintains the range-bound price action from earlier this year, we should see even the move back towards the top of its range (0. 9900-1. 0050), but the FOMC interest rate decision may spark whipsaw-like price action in the exchange rate as market participants weigh the prospects for future policy. Should the Fed signal an increased willingness to move on rates, a shift in the policy outlook could produce a bullish breakout in the exchange rate as the BoC lags behind, but we may see the dollar-loonie continues to track sideways next week if the committee keeps the door open to expand monetary policy further. -DS

$$$$$ USDCAD: Prices Still Locked in Familiar Range

Strategy: Flat

USDCAD continues to drift sideways in a narrow range between support at 0.9854 and resistance at 1.0053. A Morning Star candlestick pattern has been formed, but its implications are suspect considering it is occurring without a strong trend to precede it (typically required for a valid a valid reversal pattern). We see no compelling opportunities here for now and will remain on the sidelines until the pair resolves a clear directional bias.

=>> Euro Sticks to Range, but Losses Likely on Spain and Italy Troubles

Quantitative Strategist 14 April 2012 04: 22 GMT
Fundamental Forecast for the Euro: Bearis

There are three types of price trends: up, down, and sideways. The Euro remains stuck in fairly well-defined 11-month downtrend, but 2012 has produced a shorter-term uptrend, and the last 6 weeks have kept the Euro/US Dollar within a narrow sideways trend. Where's the resolution?

When there are any doubts on the short-term trajectory of a currency, we always defer to the bigger picture. for the Euro that leaves an important downtrend intact as long as the Euro/US Dollar remains below February highs of $1.3487. The EURUSD looked as though it would break through significant price resistance as the Dow Jones FXCM Dollar Index (ticker: USDOLLAR) saw its largest single-day decline in 7 weeks. Yet sharp sell-offs in European sovereign debt markets forced the Euro lower against the safe-haven US currency through Friday's close. The spread between 10-Year Spanish Government Bond Yields and the benchmark German Bund finished at a significant 4.24 percent. The substantial differential is the largest since the depths of the Euro Zone crisis through late 2011 and a clear warning of what may be to come.

Biosphere Euro Zone economic event risk will be relatively limited in the week ahead, but traders should watch out for major surprises in Euro area Consumer Price Index inflation figures and a German ZEW Business Confidence survey on the 17th. Investors remain focused on whether the European Central Bank will move to cut interest rates further or introduce other measures to ease monetary policy. Why? Interest rates matter, and lower European yields would likely push the euro lower against major counterparts. Any lower-than-expected CPI figures could boost the case for ECB rate cuts and the Euro could fall in kind.

Yet the largest issue on the horizon feels all too familiar: Euro Zone fiscal debt crises. A clearly disappointing Greek deficit report reminded traders that problems are far from over. Yet further Greek disorders mean little in comparison to a deterioration in Spain's tax scales, and the surge in Spanish bond yields warn that investors are wary. What's next?

We will need to see a significant improvement in Spanish and Italian bond markets for the Euro to make a sustained move higher. How might that happened? According to a poll conducted by Bloomberg News, 17 of 22 economists expect that the European Central Bank will restart its purchases of regional sovereign debt through the Securities Market Program. Yet, in this author's opinion, selling pressures on Spanish and Italian bonds might be too great for the central bank to overcome.

It is one thing for Euro Zone nations to band together in order to lease out Greece, Portugal, and Ireland. Yet Spanish and Italian economies and tax debts dwarf those of the smaller states, and investors are setting the stage for a real showdown on sovereign credit risk.

Keep an eye on Euro Zone debt markets in the week ahead as any clear deterioration would likely produce further Euro/US Dollar declines. What else should we watch? Correlations between the EURUSD and the US S & P 500 and broader risky assets have weakened as of late, but they will remain important for as long as the US Dollar remains the world's foremost safe-haven currency. Watch stocks-the S & P is down 2.7% in the first two weeks of the second quarter. Continued sell-offs could hurt the risk-sensitive EURUSD. -DR

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14 April 2012 04: 22 GMT Apr 07 00: 43 GMT Euro on the Verge of Another Massive Bear Leg as Crisis Fears ReturnMar, 30 23: 30 GMT Euro at Crossroads, ECB and US Nonfarm Payrolls May Set Pace for Q2Mar, 23 23: 21 GMT Euro Ambitions to Revive Bull Trend May Be Dashed by Dollar, Crisis FearsMar, 16 23: 02 GMT Euro Targets Strength as Euro Zone CalmS & P 500 Surges, VIX TumblesMar, 10 03: 38 GMT Euro at Risk as Markets Look Past Greece to Growth, Rates Outlook