$ USD to hold steady of the FOMC minutes ahead JPY BoJ take cues

6 July 2012 15: 40 GMT  although US non-farm payrolls report behind the expectations of the market, the Dow Jones FXCM US dollar index fell (ticker: USDollar) 0.30 percent remains of open and continue next week estimate the greenback should escape in which collects safety speed. However as the index the area bounce price action from the previous month transferred claims the overbought signal relative strength to the 30-minute index can be a short-term pullback during North American trade spark and perhaps we see that the dollar still sideways before the FOMC Protocol on tap for next week track how market participants weigh prospects for monetary policy. Actually speculation for additional financial support again surfaced in the midst of the lengthy recovery in the U.S. labor market, but the uptick in the wage growth can the Fed way of moving quantitative easing as the stickiness raises the threat of inflation underlying price growth stimulate.
As the USDOLLAR path from the 10.025 figure progress, it seems as if the greenback as a higher low set, and we come in July the index at 10,300 others run one perhaps, see since the upward trend of next form to. In fact, that for a higher dollar and perhaps see break in the relative strength index strengthens our call to head the FOMC Protocol to wake up a bullish response in the reserve currency should we continue to the Central Bank to talk about speculation for a new round of quantitative easing. At the same time, number of data coming from China next week can more SAP risk mood as we expect to see, the 2Q GDP report show an annualised growth rate of 7.7 percent, and a flight to safety can fuel pump concerns about a 'hard landing', such as the Outlook for global growth deteriorates.

Once again, although three of the four components weakened against the greenback, led by a 0.85 percent fall in the Australian dollar, the Japanese Yen brought 0.41 percent. With the Bank of Japan interest rate decision on tap for the next week, we should see that Governor Masaaki Shirakawa continue its fundamental prospects for the region raises a leader to beat sound policy, but the Board may continue to support a wait and-see approach, such as the Central Bank. However, since positive real interest rates in Japan further increase the attractiveness of the yen, should we the BoJ still on its easing cycle start see, and the Central Bank should intervene under increased pressure on the foreign exchange market, continue to dampen the prospects for an export-led recovery as the strength in the local currency.

Gold keeps minutes in the focus range 8 consecutive weeks - FOMC

Fundamental Outlook for gold: neutral

Gold was more than 1% this week with the precious metals at $1581 on Friday after a disappointing NFP print broader commodities and stock markets weighed close. Before the end of trading on Friday had reduced throughout the week ahead, suggesting with the specifications, that the couple can test the lower bound of its recent gold. But gold is now a $100 range hold for the last two months, we remain pending before an outbreak of its recent range on the sidelines with our longer-term trend is still weighted down.

A weaker than expected pressure in June non-farm wages and payrolls report weighed on broader risk appetite with gold, the tracking of stocks and other commodities connected lower on Friday. NFP amounted to 80 K, missing consensus estimates for the reading of 100 K keep with the unemployment rate of 8.2%, as expected. A drill down deeper shows a slight improvement in the data in employment, a senior unsecured looked back as discouraged workers employees. Wage growth rose also unexpectedly in June on his fastest pace this year. The data were weak enough, where it is unlikely that further relief from the federal warrant reserve, but continue to weigh concerns about a global slowdown in economic growth to broader market sentiment continues to take hold. Gold paragraph 1.65% on the heels of the release as a fear of deflation reduced demand after the previous metal as a hedge against rising prices.

Look at the next week, dealers will closely minutes from the June 20 meeting FOMC policy amid widespread concern over domestic growth prospects and a continued recovery in the labour market are considered. Investors will weigh the Outlook, quoted on future monetary policy in the light of labour market data on Friday after Chairman Bernanke, that the Central Bank was ready to act conditions should deteriorate further. With growth, the recent uptick in wage growth and continued stickiness underlying price, however, find we it unlikely that the Fed will go on further easing at these levels. Find gold, continue to strongly to fluctuations in the dollar with the 20-tägige inverse correlation between the Dow Jones FXCM dollar index (ticker: USDOLLAR) and the price of gold hit to respond its highest level since mid-April.

From a technical perspective gold in consolidation for the past eight weeks with the price keeps its recent range of 38.2% to 61.8% Fibonacci extensions, which September and February of highs at $1640 to $1545 or been taken. Friday's reduced the whole week ahead suggest further weakness ahead with our medium-term bias number (s) weighted down, as long as the February 1641 is highly respected decline. Soft support lies on the $1561 secured through the area with 1545 low. As Jamie Saettele notes "this length of consolidation is a stunning break probably..." "Fuel finally" with a break below the 61.8% extension considered subsequent floors at $1500 and the mouth of July 2011 lows and 78.6% extension at $1480. interim resistance is at $1624 with a break over the heights of the June relief further downside pressure. Such a scenario is seen at the 200-day moving average at $1660, the may highs at $1671 and the $1700 mark our bias with overhead goals invalid. In other words, we break out the several months range neutral remain at these levels until one. -MB

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The British pound looks FinMin Summit for direction on FOMC minutes EU

7th July 2012 07:10 GMT fundamental outlook for British Pound: Neutral The British pound remains vulnerable to risk sentiment trends, GBPUSD show a firm correlation with the MSCI World Stock Index. In the aftermath of last week's disappointing U.S. jobs report and underwhelming stimulus efforts by the ECB and the BOE is hoping to make this the FOMC minutes from June's outing amidst that the Fed bring relief. Although Ben Bernanke and company decided to introduce no QE3 last month, dealers are keen to assess the extent to which such an option entered into conversation, expectations for a possible expansion of the balance sheet, revealed in the coming months will lead to. All in all, the utility seems to be of another QE program highly suspect. In fact, with U.S. Treasury yields already so low that after adjusting for inflation, real interest rates are negative, the 10-year maturity, it seems unlikely that a further push much lower borrowing not to stimulate. The Fed is certainly not blind to the limits of further QE, but it is equally sensitive to the fact that trigger a strong signal to financial markets may appeal to pandemonium. This means that the door open for further easing is likely to be retained, at least rhetorically. In this sense, language increases the likelihood that additional accommodation is expected to increase the perceived risk, and with him the pound. Needless to say, the reverse scenario is also the case. In addition to investors yearning for looser monetary conditions, the debt crisis is set to the euro zone to return to the top, as the currency of Finance issued for a meeting convened on Monday. The sit-down is expected that civil servants, the implementation of June to begin to see the EU summit. Although little longer-term issues such as joint bank governance and expanding the EFSF / ESM bailout funds forces should be reached, the Spanish bank bail out prominently in the proceedings. Information about the efforts are likely to be ratified at the seat. The British pound continues to be a beneficiary of the regional port flows in times of growing concern over the euro zone, which means that as a result of disappointing investors, the UK currency may increase. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on trends affecting the global currency markets.

BoE Minutes Show 8-1 Vote Against Stimulus, Low Short-Term Growth Projections

THE TAKEAWAY: BoE Voted 8-1 to keep QE unchanged -> Further stimulus is a future possibility -> Cable drops leading up to BoE release
8 out of 9 Bank of England members voted against raising quantitative easing, keeping the bond-purchase program at 325 billion pounds, according to the minutes from their May 9-10 meeting. For the second month in a row, David Miles was the only member of the Monetary Policy Committee who voted for a 25 billion increase of the asset purchase program.
‘Further monetary stimulus could be added if the outlook warranted it,’ read the minutes from the meeting. The minutes also mentioned that economic growth will be weak in the long term, following the previous quarter’s onset of a double dip recession, and the euro-debt crisis remains a threat to the UK.
However, the Bank of England also said that consumer price index outlook doesn’t call for further QE, as inflation is projected to slow to the target 2.0% rate by 2013. Yesterday’s UK CPI rate came in slightly lower than expected, further supporting the lower inflation target.
Also reported this morning were UK retail sales, which fell the most in two years during April. Retail sales dropped an unexpected 2.3% from March, versus a revised 2.0% growth during the previous month. The drop in demand was attributed to rainfall that curbed clothing and fuel sales according to the Office for National Statistics.
The drop in sales comes as another sign of a slowing economy in the UK, and that combined with the lower than expected inflation supports those who hope to see further stimulus.
The expectation for further stimulus has a mixed effect on the sterling. Further QE would lower interest rates, which is usually currency-negative. However, if the stimulus is seen as effectively boosting growth, it could be considered currency positive.

Cable fell to 1.57000 in the hour before the release of the BoE minutes and the retail sales, and then briefly continued its drop following the news before retreating to the 1.5700 level. The next major support comes in at 1.5600.

Traders Count the Minutes till the Facebook Frenzy Really Begins

The debate and speculation is finally over and all that’s left now is the shouting. Late yesterday, Facebook announced that it executives would price its 421.2 million shares of stock at $ 45.00 per share, the high end of the range anticipated. At that price, Facebook shares would trade at better than 100 times its historical earnings.bat, while comparatively, Google’s was just 19 times, and Apple’s 14 times.
The Facebook weather last week Roadshow which has heated up demand for the shares which may have prompted the decision to price the offering at the higher end of the range. Analysts believe that the demand for the shares could outstrip supply certainly, however, according to the SEC statement which was filed yesterday, the company will provide an additional 53.6 million Facebook shares to its underwriters after the IPO is concluded.
Facebook, with its massive marketing efforts, has garnered world-wide attention from both the tech and financial communities, and has found significant support simply because it is so interwoven in more everyone’s online existence. Provided today’s IPO launch is the success that Facebook execs and their underwriters hope it will be, the social media giant will be written up in the books as having the largest tech-based IPO in history, having raised $ 16 billion.
Internet search giant Google, which has stood for eight years as a benchmark for other tech-based IPOs, only $ 1.9 billion raised during its initial public offering, and is now valued at $ 200 + billion. With the IPO launch, Facebook’s market value will be more than $ 104 billion. One analyst believes the Facebook IPO will be a slam dunk “ ” as the share price is sure to surge initially by some estimates, perhaps by 15% or even 30%, and further believes that that feel-good sentiment will carry over into the broader NASDAQ composite.
The combined effects of the euro-zone crisis and disappointing U.S. data sent all of Wall Street’s main indices lower yesterday? the DJIA was down 1.24%, the S&P 500 1.51% and the NASDAQ 2.10% lower. While sentiment is bullish on OpenBook’s NSDQ100 in the hours ahead of the Facebook launch. Some traders who had already opened long positions were caught flatfooted by the loss yesterday including trader NASDAQ’s wmanos, who we mentioned had several long positions opened as of yesterday and who took a huge hit on them as each hit its SL OpenBook trader miki4blu took a bearish position and earned a 79% gain yesterday? the trader’s 1-day P&L is at 12.7%.
While the NASDAQ’s opening bell rings at 9: 30 a.m. (EST), shares in Facebook (FB) won’t begin trading until 90 minutes later to allow the exchange and brokerage firms enough time to handle what is likely to be an incredible crush of orders. Most analysts, including eToro’s own Lior Alkalay, believe that the Facebook frenzy will be enough to carry the NASDAQ higher, not just for today but in the longer term and 3500 is not an unlikely scenario. Stock futures are suggesting that Wall Street’s downtrend could pause hrs, with NASDAQ futures earlier up by 0.3%.

¥ British Pound Unlikely to Find Clear Bearing in BOE Minutes, Jobs Data ¥

18 April 2012 07:22 GMT  Talking Points

Bank of England Minutes Unlikely to Signal Change in Policy Framework British Pound May See Muted Reaction to Increase in UK Jobless Claims Yen Sold as Asian Stocks Rise After IMF Upgrades 2012 Growth Outlook Minutes from April’s Bank of England policy meeting headline the economic calendar in European hours. Traders will look to the voting pattern on the rate-setting MPC committee to gauge the possibility of additional stimulus in the near term. Two votes in favor of further easing from known doves David Miles and Adam Posen represent the status quo, with anything more perceived as a shift in favor of further accommodation that is likely to weigh on the British Pound. Alternatively, an 8-1 or 9-0 outcome will probably prove supportive.

On balance, we suspect another 7-2 outcome coupled with neutral rhetoric is the path of least resistance, with most BOE officials waiting for February’s increase in asset purchases to be fully absorbed and an updated quarterly inflation report to be produced in May. Jobless Claims figures are also on tap, with expectations calling for a 6,000 increase in applications for benefits in March. A print in line with expectations doesn’t present a material change in overall labor market trends and so may not produce a meaningful response from price action.

The Japanese Yen slumped overnight – sliding as much as 0.7 percent against its leading counterparts – as a rally across Asian stock exchanges sapped safe-haven demand. The MSCI Asia Pacific regional benchmark equity index added 1.2 percent after the IMF upgraded its outlook for world economic growth in 2012. The fund now believes global output will add 3.5 percent this year, up from a January estimate of 3.3 percent. Importantly, this still marks a slowdown from the 3.9 percent increase recorded in 2011. The key features of the macroeconomic landscape – a pickup in the US against a backdrop of recession in the Eurozone and a slowdown in China – likewise remained in place.

Asia Session: What Happened

Westpac Leading Index (MoM) (FEB)

ANZ Consumer Confidence Index (APR)

ANZ Consumer Confidence (MoM) (APR)

Euro Session: What to Expect

Euro-Zone Current Account n.s.a. (€) (FEB)

Euro-Zone Current Account s.a. (€) (FEB)

Average Weekly Earnings (3M/YoY) (MAR)

Weekly Earnings ex Bonus (3M/YoY) (MAR)

ILO Unemployment Rate (3M) (FEB)

Euro-Zone Construction Output s.a. (MoM) (FEB)

Euro-Zone Construction Output w.d.a. (YoY) (FEB)

Credit Suisse ZEW Survey (Expectations) (APR)

Critical Levels

$ GBPUSD: Trading the Bank of England Minutes

18 April 2012 03:00 GMT  Trading the News: Bank of England Minutes What’s Expected:
Time of release: 04/18/2012 8:30 GMT, 4:30 EDT
Primary Pair Impact: GBPUSD
Expected: --
Previous: --
DailyFX Forecast:--
Why Is This Event Important:

Although the Bank of England Minutes is expected to show board members David Miles and Adam Posen voting for another GBP 25B in quantitative easing, the policy statement could spark a bullish reaction in the British Pound should the central bank continue to soften its dovish tone for monetary policy. As BoE officials anticipate to see a more robust recovery later this year, the Monetary Policy Committee may continue to see a limited risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation, and the central bank may move away from its easing cycle as the fundamental outlook for the U.K. picks up.

Recent Economic Developments 

The Upside

Release	Expected	Actual
Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)	3.4%	3.5%
Producer Price Index – Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)	3.5%	3.6%
Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)	53.4	55.3

The Downside

Release	Expected	Actual
Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)	-0.2%	-0.3%
Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)	-0.5%	-0.8%
Jobless Claims Change (FEB)	5.0K	7.2K

The Upside

Consumer Price Index (YoY) (MAR)

Producer Price Index – Output n.s.a. (YoY) (MAR)

Purchasing Manager Index Services (MAR)

The Downside

Gross Domestic Product (QoQ) (4Q F)

Retail Sales ex Auto Fuel (MoM) (FEB)

Sticky price pressures in the U.K. certainly limits the BoE’s scope to expand the Asset Purchase Facility, and a less dovish policy statement could ultimately bring about fresh yearly highs in the GBPUSD as the bullish formation continues to take shape. However, the BoE may keep the door open to expand monetary policy further amid the slowdown in private sector consumption paired with the ongoing weakness in the labor market, and the central bank may sound a bit more dovish as the weakening outlook for Europe – U.K.’s largest trading partner – dampens the scope for a stronger recovery. In turn, we may see the GBPUSD threaten support around 1.5800, and the pair may fail to maintain the upward trending channel from earlier this year as market participants anticipate to see the BoE carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012.

Potential Price Targets For The Rate Decision

 A look at the encompassing structure sees the sterling trading within the confines of an ascending channel formation dating back to the 2012-lows made in mid-January with the exchange rate holding above former trendline resistance dating back to August 19th. Daily resistance stands at the 50% Fibonacci extension taken from the January 13th and March 12th troughs at 1.5980 with critical resistance seen at the April 2nd high (1.6062) just shy of the 61.8% extension at 1.6070. We remains cautiously bullish here with a only a breach above the monthly high at 1.6062 offering conviction on our directional bias. Daily support now rests with the 38.2% extension at 1.5890 backed by the 200-day moving average at 1.5845. A break below the 23.6% extension negates our bias with such a scenario eyeing subsequent support target at the 100-day moving average at 1.5709 and the March lows at 1.5602. Note that daily RSI remains within the confines of a wedge formation with the pending break-out likely to offer further clarity as the pair remains in consolidation. 

 

 Our 30min scalp chart shows the pound holding above interim support at the 50% Fibonacci retracement taken from the April 2nd decline at 1.5930. Subsequent intra-day support levels are seen at the 38.2% retracement at the 1.59-figure, 1.5865 and the weekly low at 1.5820. A break below the 1.58-handle risks substantial losses for the pounds with a close below 1.5780 shifting our focus to bearish targets. Interim topside resistance stands at the 61.8% retracement at 1.5960 with a breach above 1.5980 targeting the 78.6% extension at the 1.60-figure and 1.6040. Should the print prompt a bullish response, look to target topside levels with a break above the monthly high at 1.6060 offering further conviction on sterling longs.

How To Trade This Event Risk

Trading the given event risk is certainly not as clear cut as some of our previous trades, but a less dovish statement could pave the way for a long British Pound trade as market participants curb speculation for more QE. Therefore, if the central bank takes note of the stickiness in price growth and raises its fundamental outlook for the region, we will need to see a green, five-minute candle following the statement to generate a buy entry on two-lots of GBPUSD. Once these conditions are fulfilled, we will set the initial stop at the nearby swing low or a reasonable distance from the entry, and this risk will establish our first target. The second objective will be based on discretion, and we will move the stop on the second lot to cost once the first trade reaches its mark in order to preserve our profits.

On the other hand, the ongoing slack within the real economy paired with the threat of a prolonged recession in the euro-area may lead the BoE to retain a cautious outlook for the region, and we may see the central bank keep the door open to expand policy further in an effort to promote a stronger recovery. As a result, if the MPC sounds more dovish this time around, we will implement the same setup for a short pound-dollar trade as the long position laid out above, just in the opposite direction.

Impact that the Bank of England Minutes has had on GBP during the last release

Period	Data Released	Estimate	Actual	Pips Change (1 Hour post event )	Pips Change (End of Day post event)
MAR 2012	03/21/2012 9:30 GMT	--	--	-20	-24

March 2012 Bank of England Minutes

Pips Change
(1 Hour post event )
Pips Change
(End of Day post event)
March 2012 Bank of England Minutes

 The Bank of England meeting minutes dragged on the British Pound as David Miles and Adam Posen pushed for another GBP 25B in quantitative easing, but it seems as though the Monetary Policy Committee is softening its dovish tone for monetary policy as central bank officials now see a limited risk of undershooting the 2% target for inflation. The sterling tumbled lower following the policy statement, with the GBPUSD quickly moving back below 1.5850, but we saw the pound-dollar consolidate during the North American trade to end the day at 1.5870.

""" British Pound Outlook menacé par la BoE Minutes, CPI

14 April 2012 04:17 GMT 

Fundamental Forecast for British Pound: Neutral

The British Pound had a particularly weak past five days, although most of the downside came against the commodity currency complex and the Japanese Yen. The Sterling lost 1.03 percent to the Yen, while losing 0.75 percent and 0.60 percent to the Australian and New Zealand Dollars, respectively. Considering the performance of the UK Gilts this past week (yields fell), it’s of little surprise that the Pound was under pressure (falling yields reduce a currency’s appeal). With respect to global risk trends, the British Pound could be due for a solid bounce against the commodity currencies as global growth prospects continue to ease; but with the Bank of England looming, we could see the Pound drop against the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar.

In light of Standard & Poor’s confirmation of the United Kingdom’s ‘AAA’ rating, it is clear that there has been a dynamic shift in the structure of the British economy that has made it relatively more secure than other European economies. Taking this into consideration, it is evident that British fundamentals are improving: growth hasn’t tanked in the face of austerity; the labor market is relatively stable; and inflation continues to cool. While Standard & Poor’s has recognized this, other rating agencies have not: Fitch Ratings and Moody’s Investor Services both have the United Kingdom’s top ‘AAA’ rating on a “negative outlook.”

Any confusion that these differing views offer should be made clearer after the release of the Bank of England minutes on Wednesday. While there was no statement accompanying the rate decision, we do know that there are still some prominent doves on the Monetary Policy Committee – at least two of the nine – that are calling for an expansion of the BoE’s asset purchase program (APP). Perhaps there is an argument to be made: inflation has cooled in recent months but any excess growth gained from improved purchasing power among consumers has been wiped out by fiscal austerity. Thus, while we typically refer to the BoE minutes as the most important event this week, we turn to the release of the consumer price index for March.

Ahead of the minutes (which won’t reflect the new inflation data) the consumer price index for March is due, and the forecasts look promising for the aforementioned dovish policymakers. The headline year-over-year figure is expected to remain steady at 3.4 percent (month-over-month forecasted to drop to 0.3 percent from 0.6 percent in February) but the more important gauge – the core reading that excludes food and energy costs – is expected to slip to 2.3 percent y/y from 2.4 percent y/y.

If inflation is going to continue to meander lower, it is likely that BoE policymakers reignite their quantitative easing operation to purchase another £50 billion in the months ahead. By no means is the British economy out of the woods – at least two of the major rating agencies would agree. Whereas we expect the Pound to appreciate against the commodity currencies in the days ahead, more talk of QE will hurt the Pound’s prospects against the Japanese Yen and the US Dollar. – CV

DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets.
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14 April 2012 04:17 GMT

USD Outlook Hinges On FOMC Minutes, AUD Slumps On Rate Expectations

Index	Last	High	Low	Daily Change (%)	Daily Range (% of ATR)
DJ-FXCM Dollar Index	9937.55	9951.86	9894.82	0.19	86.19%

The Dow Jones-FXCM U.S. Dollar Index (Ticker: USDollar) is 0.19 percent higher on the day as currency traders scaled back their appetite for risk, and we expect to see the bullish sentiment underlining the greenback gather pace going into the middle of the week as long as the Fed continues to soften its dovish outlook for monetary policy. As the dollar continues to find interim support around 9,900, we should see the index breakout of the downward trending channel, but we may see the descending triangle continue to take shape should the central bank keep the door open to expand its balance sheet further.

The upward trending channel in the index continues to reinforce our call for more dollar strength, but we are keeping a close eye on the bearish divergence in the relative strength index as it points to a sharp selloff in the reserve currency. As the technical outlook paints a mixed picture for the USD, we will be looking at the fundamentals to generate a clearer bias for the dollar, and the FOMC Minutes may spur increased demands for the reserve currency as Fed officials see the recovery on a more sustainable path. In turn, the policy statement may dampen speculation for another large-scale asset purchase program, and the developments could be the catalyst to push the greenback back towards the 78.6 percent Fib around 10,118 as interest rate expectations pick up.


Three of the four components weakened against the reserve currency, led by a 0.33 percent decline in the Australian dollar, and the high-yielding currency is likely to face additional headwinds over the near-term as the Reserve Bank of Australia looks to carry out its easing cycle throughout 2012. According to Credit Suisse overnight index swaps, market participants are looking for 75bp worth of rate cuts over the next 12-months, and we may see Governor Glenn Stevens shore up the ailing economy throughout the year as China – Australia’s largest trading partner – continues to face a risk for a ‘hard landing.’ As the AUDUSD carves out a key top in the first quarter, we should see the pair maintain the downward trend carried over from the previous month, and the aussie-dollar looks poised to give back the advance from earlier this year as the dovish remarks from the RBA drags on interest rate expectations.

Wall Street Pins Hopes on Fed’s Minutes and Prospect of More QE

Wall Street had initially opened, following Europe, but speculation about possible QE-leanings the Fed may have been discouraged in view of the improvement of data now points. Writing, it seems that Wall Street could use a bit of direction; the SPX500 is 4.17 points, the NASDAQ higher by 23 and the DJIA trading now more than 23 points lower. Such as indices, the collective sense merchants OpenBook is also mixed; distributed on the rise on the SPX500 and the DJIA and downward on the NASDAQ. A sense, however, could change the head at 14: 00 (EST) when the Fed releases the minutes of the latest meeting.OpenBook trader drangie has recently opened and covered in the SPX500 positions, but it closed to others during the day, which would allow small yields in each. This trader that spends 85% indices trading portfolio is to register a profit of 12% for the week.
The reason of sense of collective increase of markets will be clearer later when market movements focused on the release of the Federal Reserve FOMC minutes of its January meeting. Traders are anxious whether or not the Fed has the intention of embarking on a new round of quantitative easing in additional to their commitment to maintain the current low interest rates. Analysts point out that it is the hope that more relaxation will be upcoming supporting stock markets on Wall Street.
Given the new position of the Fed on open communication, the minutes will be revealed as not only including members of FOMC is more or less for relaxing, but how each arrived at the rate the EDF and fund their forecasts of the target. Recently, the President of the Federal Reserve Ben Bernanke stated that they Fed would closely monitor the activity and that he would not hesitate to respond to any signs that the recovery of the economy appears to be retired.
Data points out before minutes showed an unexpected improvement in the reading of the Empire State manufacturing survey, which was printed at 19.53 13.48 and a rising unexpectedly from the NAHB Housing Market Index of 29 of 25.
In view of the improvement in data points, it is not uncommon to find that a number of traders OpenBook, we recently mentioned is more doubtful of further Fed easing. Negotiating marcongzh, which has had some recent success in trade the SPX500, opened a sale is not so long the position which is already back more than 10%. Trader Canada spedini, which allocates the 13% of its portfolio of indices, scalped two short positions on the SPX500, with an average yield of 5.5%.
OpenBook trader ROLaterveer of the Netherlands has been scalping the SPX500 during the opening hours of Wall Street and closed of three short films with an average yield of more than 10%. This trader has also several positions of short to long term requiring a serious rout of the SPX500 make profitable. In view of the improvement of recent data, minutes may reveal QE another is in back-burnered, which may give to this merchant of the defeat he needs.
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